WEEKEND THREAD: Lightyear implodes with 51M DOM, 85.6M WW. THE LAST PIXAR MOVIE EVER?????😱😱😱 | Dominion #1 with 58.66M, Top Gun 44M

[XXR vs XXR]

17 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

its a sci-fi movie inside a movie?

from the famous chris evans tweet I understood it was the "biopic" of the guy buzz is based on

Yes, this movie is the movie Andy saw that made him want the Buzz Lightyear toy. Buzz Lightyear is a fictional movie character in Andy’s universe, akin to Luke Skywalker or Indiana Jones in ours.

Edited June 17, 2022 by ZurgXXR

[Eric the Ape]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

Because while you keep warning everyone even when there's no big reason (imo), you keep doing the same "joke" about Disney theatrical releases in multiple threads for quite some time to a point that is very close to trolling. 

 

This fight or whatever between you and EC is tiresome to read, but you do behave very close to troll sometimes and nothing happen, it does look like the rules applied to us not necessarily apply to higher members. 

 

If you disagreed whatever, i don't care enough to argue beyond this, but like i said it's tiresome to read and he's not necessarily wrong, so maybe there's room to change.

Well there's the problem: I'm not trolling, nor do I even say these "everything is going streaming" posts on a consistent basis. In fact, my "RIP Disney animated movies in theaters" post is something that I did once and only once. I have said Lightyear is going to streaming, but this was just an educated guess based off the information given. Something that everybody here has done before. That wasn't me joking or trying to deliberately troll and go after people.

 

I also don't warn everybody for zero reason like you are claiming I do. I let people like CJohn post things here all the time that people will disagree with or may be controversial. This is a discussion forum, so people are allowed to discuss and say things people will disagree with. The only times I will stop somebody is if they are intentionally being mean towards another user, say something inflammatory or offensive, are going super off-topic, or just have a really bad history behind them and are known for trolling. I am far from a perfect mod, and I have screwed up many times before, but I am not somebody who abuses their power or goes hog wild on others because I can. And even in the instances I screw up, I get told off by another staff member over my actions and I improve myself from there. This is why there are multiple staff members for checks and balance purposes.

 

I'll stop this whole convo from here, but I just really wanted to clarify everything, because I felt it was necessary that I give my case towards everything and that I'm not trying to abuse my power nor try to ruin other people's time on the forums.

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

I do have a child, and I also know that as annoying as it can be, families want to get out of the house.  All it takes is the option being removed.  

 

It will happen.  

I truly pray at least a window as long as Bad Guys for animation (70 days is dope). It comes to the point where waiting it out becomes inconvenient.

 

If Strange World, Elemental and the rest of the library are praised and have large exclusive windows, it could bounce back. The latter is just the hard part.

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Your lips to God's ears! Most families I know are enamored of the D+ option, for obvious reasons, but maybe once it is eliminated, they'll go back without any other choice. It's possible!

 

Not when dad gets to pay under $10/ticket (no matter what big 3 plan he's on) and he needs to pay $15+ for junior's ticket...that part is not sustainable.

 

I feel like when we'd talk about Movie Pass not being sustainable.  You can't have parents having to pay more for kids' tickets than they do for themselves b/c they won't buy the kids' tickets - in an inflationary time, they'll stick to streaming and take their kid to the trampoline park on a Groupon...

Edited June 17, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[JohnnyGossamer]

8 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I mean to be fair Disney+ not only has a larger base than HBO Max but also appeals primarily for families. It’s easier for WB to buck that trend mainly because their brands aren’t as big.

This is all true. But, if you take it away for pretty much all WDAS/Pixar stuff and make it a 45 day minimum theatrical window for these titles... The same adjustment that occurred with HBO Max will happen. It'll take longer, but I strongly believe it will happen. After time families will realize... "Oh, yeah, they don't do that anymore... We have to wait at least 45 days to watch this unless we go the theater." Now, hopefully throw in some movies with a glowing reception that other  families are talking about and could ideally accelerate the process. Not everyone will come back but a lot will.

[filmnerdjamie]

22 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Next weekend will be important. A big adult aiming film and a horror film. Really need Elvis and Black Phone to perform

 

I've turned around on Elvis. Not in terms of quality (I despise the laziness of the birth-to-death biopic) but I think it's gonna surprise commercially. 

[ThomasNicole]

4 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

That gay scene from Strange World that was shown at Annecy this week will most likely not make it to the final film once the Lightyear numbers come in. At best it'll be mentioned in the novelization. I envy the people at that festival. They got to see a scene that will be locked away in the Disney vault for the rest of existence.

This isn't happening. 

 

The riots against them will be way bigger everywhere including media and their own employees if they cut the gay side of the story that is already revealed, especially considering the recent events involving them and anti-LGBTQIA+ politics that they're trying so hard to compensate.

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

This isn't happening. 

 

The riots against them will be way bigger everywhere including media and their own employees if they cut the gay side of the story that is already revealed, especially considering the recent events involving them and anti-LGBTQIA+ politics that they're trying so hard to compensate.

 

If they cut it, it won't be b/c of US performance, but WW performance, of Lightyear.  They need to figure out why Asia and Europe disappointed so much on the movie...

[YM!]

Again those markets that Lightyear got banned in, TS4 made at most 40m. They don’t need those markets anyways.

[Cmasterclay]

Hey guys, remember when everyone spent three years screaming about NBA and NFL ratings being down due to "wokeness" when it turned out that it was actually due to streaming, bad matchups, and lack of crowds/normal schedule that all eventually stabilized? And the countless other examples of people attributing conservative backlash as the cause of commercial failures without real evidence? That feels like Lightyear here. I don't think 99% of moviegoers know there's a gay kiss or Tim Allen is MAGA. They do know that the very concept of this movie - Buzz Lightyear, a toy played by Tim Allen, is now a real man played by Chris Evans - makes no fucking sense, and are rejecting it accordingly.

[PDC1987]

Lightyear is under performing because Disney themselves, by way of the ridiculous Disney+ releases, have both destroyed the prestige of the Pixar brand and made countless consumers believe they are no longer theatrical experiences to begin with. Most parents likely see no reason to take their kids to see Lightyear in theaters as they know it will be on the streaming platform ASAP, and as mentioned on a previous page many who know it is in theaters this weekend believe it's also debuting on Disney+ this weekend.

 

The likely disappointing opening weekend is not indicative of anything else, and thus this continued hand wringing over the alleged death of movie theaters is ridiculous. This year a $15 million Channing Tatum movie about a Dog topped $61 million domestically, the 5th Scream movie more than doubled its predecessor's gross, the first sequel to a film from 1986 and that stars a man that hasn't made a dent outside of his signature established franchise over the last decade is sitting at $800 million globally and by early Spring 2023 the release schedule will be as stacked as it was pre-COVID.

 

Theaters are in full recovery mode, and that isn't changing.

[cookie]

Are we sure Disney even expects that much from Strange World theatrically considering what they already pulled in France? Not sure if losing minor markets because "Oh noes! A gay!" is going to change much.

[grim22]

Was Elvis getting IMAX announced? Just got an email saying "Book your tickets for Elvis special engagements in IMAX". 

 

Just finding it weird that with Top Gun 2 and Lightyear formatted specifically for IMAX and Jurassic world 3 having dinosaurs in IMAX, that Elvis will be taking IMAX screens next weekend.

[ThomasNicole]

18 minutes ago, Eric Lightyear said:

Well there's the problem: I'm not trolling, nor do I even say these "everything is going streaming" posts on a consistent basis. In fact, my "RIP Disney animated movies in theaters" post is something that I did once and only once. I have said Lightyear is going to streaming, but this was just an educated guess based off the information given. Something that everybody here has done before. That wasn't me joking or trying to deliberately troll and go after people.

 

I also don't warn everybody for zero reason like you are claiming I do. I let people like CJohn post things here all the time that people will disagree with or may be controversial. This is a discussion forum, so people are allowed to discuss and say things people will disagree with. The only times I will stop somebody is if they are intentionally being mean towards another user, say something inflammatory or offensive, are going super off-topic, or just have a really bad history behind them and are known for trolling. I am far from a perfect mod, and I have screwed up many times before, but I am not somebody who abuses their power or goes hog wild on others because I can. And even in the instances I screw up, I get told off by another staff member over my actions and I improve myself from there. This is why there are multiple staff members for checks and balance purposes.

 

I'll stop this whole convo from here, but I just really wanted to clarify everything, because I felt it was necessary that I give my case towards everything and that I'm not trying to abuse my power nor try to ruin other people's time on the forums.

I understand your point, i don't think you're trying to ruin anything, it's all fine, everyone can do something wrong, it's expected.

 

I didn't said for 0 reason tho, i said sometimes imo there aren't even a BIG reason to warnings but it happens to our side, sometimes the discussion is already dead. So, to conclude, I just believe sometimes it happens, obviously not on a daily or even weekly basis, but in some situations in the past months i get this feeling.

 

And since we're all here sharing interests and interacting pretty much everyday, i thought maybe give my opinion could be helpful in the future. No hard feelings or something, that's all.

[wildphantom]

2 hours ago, Eric Lightyear said:

These kinds of "OMG THESE KIDS ARE DOOMED" posts always grind my gears. Who cares if that's how a kid watches something? Do you think that's the only way they ever watch movies? I watched movies on a tiny screen during car drives. I turned out just fine and the movie industry didn't collapse onto itself. The way people watch movies will always change, and it's not something to get super upset about.

thats not what I’m saying at all. 
I’m saying the people that make these movies don’t make them for kids to watch in a restaurant on a phone for the first time. 
Theatrical at least preserves that for a period of time before it’s unleashed to every gadget we have - but the theatre is where these movies are made for. 
 

Luca was my example as that went straight to streaming - I was highlighting what a shame that was for that film and those that made it. 

[grim22]

11 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Hey guys, remember when everyone spent three years screaming about NBA and NFL ratings being down due to "wokeness" when it turned out that it was actually due to streaming, bad matchups, and lack of crowds/normal schedule that all eventually stabilized? And the countless other examples of people attributing conservative backlash as the cause of commercial failures without real evidence? That feels like Lightyear here. I don't think 99% of moviegoers know there's a gay kiss or Tim Allen is MAGA. They do know that the very concept of this movie - Buzz Lightyear, a toy played by Tim Allen, is now a real man played by Chris Evans - makes no fucking sense, and are rejecting it accordingly.

 

 

[M37]

One of the reasons box office tracking is a thing is because people, collectively, are relatively predictable.  We may disagree whether Thor has a 6x or 5.5x off its Thursday, but in the grand scheme, that's a very small margin given random possible outcomes - behavior doesn't shift drastically overnight, like all of sudden Sunday becomes the highest grossing day of the week. The changes are usually gradual, and often explainable by external factors

 

So its not unreasonable to think the that the shock of the pandemic, and how it forced behavioral change, is going to be slow to "snap back" into an old routine ... and that it may never do so. Going to movies stopped being a ritual for many people, streaming grew exponentially, and now inflation is pushing up the cost of discretionary spending (not just movies, but most leisure/entertainment activities) - all of these are factors pushing against a "normal" BO

 

Said this last week, and I'll repeat it: the bar to clear to get someone off of their couch and into a theater has been raised. Yes, event movies still do it, and there can be surprise/WOM hits, but poor reviews or known availability of eventual streaming is keeping a lit on potential in a way that it wasn't before. Yes, part of that is lack of product, but now we're into the point in summer where that's becoming less of an issues, and overall numbers aren't exploding.  At some point, can't wait for a recovery that may never arrive, but have to adapt to the current market, which only helps to crystalizes the trends moving forward. That doesn't mean theaters or Disney Animation are dead, but they may not exist at the same level they used to

[The Dark Alfred]

So assuming TGM posts a 10m+ Friday, how high you reckon it can go on FD's day?

[lorddemaxus]

41 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

It isn't that different from what Warner Bros. had to do.  Disney will end up having to do the same.  The trend can be reversed rather quickly.  

Difference is that people are more aware of the Disney brand. Soul, Raya and Turning Red going to streaming (and most people catching Encanto on streaming) means that people will think that the next WDAS/Pixar film be on streaming. Dune going to streaming doesn't mean that they will think The Batman is going straight to streaming. Most people won't even be aware the same studio distrubuted both.

[Sophia Jane]

TG2 around 11m Friday