Weekly Thread 6/20/22 - JWD $8.5m, TGM $8.0m, LY $6.8m

[M37]

4 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Elvis is just selling too well and it skews older as well, so by nature it is a walk up and not rush out and see it movie.  

I don’t think that’s true, that older skewing films are walk-up friendly … at least not any more. Besides Lost City, which was a light-hearted but ultimately disposable comedy, every high age 35+ title has been advance sale heavy for the OW (including TGM). Not having a rush to see factor may mean good legs, but not solid walk-ups in first week

 

I think, by virtue of necessity, the olds got much better at navigating online/app purchases during the pandemic. And those that didn’t, the more walk-up crowd, haven’t yet returned (and may not). Every adult drama in release has undershot its reducing forecasts - often by a lot - because there just wasn’t that walk-up audience to boost them.

 

 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

53 minutes ago, M37 said:

I don’t think that’s true, that older skewing films are walk-up friendly … at least not any more. Besides Lost City, which was a light-hearted but ultimately disposable comedy, every high age 35+ title has been advance sale heavy for the OW (including TGM). Not having a rush to see factor may mean good legs, but not solid walk-ups in first week

 

I think, by virtue of necessity, the olds got much better at navigating online/app purchases during the pandemic. And those that didn’t, the more walk-up crowd, haven’t yet returned (and may not). Every adult drama in release has undershot its reducing forecasts - often by a lot - because there just wasn’t that walk-up audience to boost them.

 

 

Top Gun? Dog? Even Death on Nile beat the very low expectations with walk-ups.

 

Yeah, sometimes there's a Downton Abbey, or whatever, but in the last few months I don't think this is necessarily true

[Juby]

Titanic won't give up. Maverick will have to beat him by a larger margin, because the ship will be over $660 million domestic next year. :)

 

https://deadline.com/2022/06/titanic-rerelease-date-remastered-version-james-cameron-1235050212/

[Ronin46]

54 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Top Gun? Dog? Even Death on Nile beat the very low expectations with walk-ups.

 

Yeah, sometimes there's a Downton Abbey, or whatever, but in the last few months I don't think this is necessarily true

 

Just looking through Box Office Report who archive there predictions.

 

Lost City 29.5m - actual 30.5M OW

Top Gun 143m - actual 160M OW

Dog 12.3M - actual 14.8M

Downton Abbey 18M - actual 16M

 

seems pretty accurate for those 4 

 

could throw in The Northman 12.5- actual 12.3M OW

 

Lets see what they guy who runs BO Report puts out tomorrow and compare since its a day later and will be easier to be more accurate rather than Shawn who does his a day earlier.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 minute ago, Ronin46 said:

 

Just looking through Box Office Report who archive there predictions.

 

Lost City 29.5m - actual 30.5M OW

Top Gun 143m - actual 160M OW

Dog 12.3M - actual 14.8M

Downton Abbey 18M - actual 16M

 

seems pretty accurate for those 4 

 

could throw in The Northman 12.5- actual 12.3M OW

 

Lets see what they guy who runs BO Report puts out tomorrow and compare since its a day later and will be easier to be more accurate rather than Shawn who does his a day earlier.

Box Office Report, the secret guru?

[Brainbug]

5 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

$5.35m for TG2

 

First day for Top Gun to top Dominion if those numbers dont change then. This represents also only a 18,5% drop from last Wednesday, absolutely amazing.

 

5 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

$5.15m for JWD

 

This is also a good hold for Dominion, despite losing the #1 position. Its -48% from Wednesday, so its Weekday trajectory continues to look promising. Unless the Friday increase and Sat bump is somehow bad, a drop right around 50% is in store for it this weekend imo. For comparison, Fallen Kingdom dropped 53% in its third weekend.

Edited June 23, 2022 by Brainbug the Dinosaur

[JohnnyGossamer]

TGM back to #1 with those numbers. Excellent.

 

With that JWD number, it's now tracking at 26.5M~ behind JWFK. Of course, JWFK's second Wednesday was July 4th so it had an inflated Wednesday number. JWFK did, however, do 7.1M the following day on a non holiday Thursday. JWD will fall at least 2M short of that number as well so going into this weekend it will tracking somewhere between 28.5M and 29M behind JWFK.

 

Crap drop for LY. And, especially given EC just said, it's looking at a probably brutal second weekend drop.

[JohnnyGossamer]

18 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

First day for Top Gun to top Dominion if those numbers dont change then. This represents also only a 18,5% drop from last Wednesday, absolutely amazing.

 

 

This is also a good hold for Dominion, despite losing the #1 position. Its -48% from Wednesday, so its Weekday trajectory continues to look promising. Unless the Friday increase and Sat bump is somehow bad, a drop right around 50% is in store for it this weekend imo. For comparison, Fallen Kingdom dropped 53% in its third weekend.

I know it's not losing much if any IMAX but how much do you think losing premium screens like XD and Dolby (Elvis is taking a ton of those at cinemas around me) will impact it's numbers this weekend? I'm curious if that results in more of a 50%+ drop this weekend to something like 27M to 28M...

[Jonwo]

I am confused why the naysayers are so down on Elvis. 

[Ronin46]

1 hour ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Box Office Report, the secret guru?

 

Think he had LY at 79 last week so its never going to be spot on. But for those "adult type dramas" its been a good track record recently. 

[Brainbug]

6 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I know it's not losing much if any IMAX but how much do you think losing premium screens like XD and Dolby (Elvis is taking a ton of those at cinemas around me) will impact it's numbers this weekend? I'm curious if that results in more of a 50%+ drop this weekend to something like 27M to 28M...

 

I would think the impact wont nearly be as big as last weekends partial loss of its PLF's, but together with the probably harsh Sunday-to-Sunday drop it could very well cause the weekend number to drop below 30M. Im banking a bit on a strong Friday increase and Sat bump to avoid this.

[Starde]

I think folks are really underestimating Elvis. As amazing as it would be to see TGM reclaim #1, I just don't see it happening, but I would love to be proven wrong. I'm expecting Elvis to come out on top in the very low $40M range. What I can see happening for TGM is joining the $1B club by the end of the weekend. Insane. 

Edited June 23, 2022 by Starde

[Juby]

Maverick will easily beat record for best legs of +$100 million opener (Shrek 2 x4.08, or Wonder Woman x4.00) and can go even as high as x5.00 multiplayer! Does anyone know when the last time such thing happen for non-christmas wide release? I think there's no such film in XXI century. Inception with x4.66 is the best I can find.

 

Edit:

The Hangover in 2009 wass the last time i guess. Or Bridesmaids in 2011, but it was released in less than 3000 theaters. For a film with +$50 million OW that's unheard of, I think.

 

 

Edited June 23, 2022 by Juby

[cruelintentionsisgoated]

13 minutes ago, Juby said:

Maverick will easily beat record for best legs of +$100 million opener (Shrek 2 x4.08, or Wonder Woman x4.00) and can go even as high as x5.00 multiplayer! Does anyone know when the last time such thing happen for non-christmas wide release? I think there's no such film in XXI century. Inception with x4.66 is the best I can find.

 

Edit:

The Hangover in 2009 wass the last time i guess. Or Bridesmaids in 2011, but it was released in less than 3000 theaters. For a film with +$50 million OW that's unheard of, I think.

 

 

Also Inside Out, it opened to 90m and legged out to 360m (about x4) in summer 2015

[baumer]

Completely anecdotal here but i have a huge interest in seeing elvis. of all the musical groups that my parents liked and introduced me to as a kid in the '80s, Elvis is the one that stuck with me the most. His musical talent is incredible but it's also the things that he did as a human being that really got me to appreciate him. He gave away so much money to charity, kids in need, to families that were in dire straits and so on.

 

I will definitely be seeing this opening weekend and I really hope it does well.

[Juby]

16 minutes ago, cruelintentionsisgoated said:

Also Inside Out, it opened to 90m and legged out to 360m (about x4) in summer 2015

 

First of all, don't quote the entire post right above yours. It doesn't make any sens.

 

Second of all, I was asking about +5.00 multiplayers, not x4.

 

[Cheddar Please]

34 minutes ago, Juby said:

Maverick will easily beat record for best legs of +$100 million opener (Shrek 2 x4.08, or Wonder Woman x4.00) and can go even as high as x5.00 multiplayer! Does anyone know when the last time such thing happen for non-christmas wide release? I think there's no such film in XXI century. Inception with x4.66 is the best I can find.

 

Edit:

The Hangover in 2009 wass the last time i guess. Or Bridesmaids in 2011, but it was released in less than 3000 theaters. For a film with +$50 million OW that's unheard of, I think.

 

 

Last time 5x happened to a Friday summer blobkbuster that made it to the top 10 was Jurassic Park in 1993 I think (ironically the first film to open over $50m, though finding Nemo was close with 4.84x) counting mid-week openings, I think TPM was the last to do over 5x

Edited June 23, 2022 by Cheddar Please

[The Dark Alfred]

US is slacking. It took this long for TGM to overtake JWD? In some territories that already happened. Jokes aside TGM is simply stratospheric. After posting the 2nd biggest 4th weekend ever, it only went to do:

 

3rd biggest 4th Monday

1st biggest 4th Tuesday

1st biggest 4th Wednesday

1st biggest 4th Thursday

[Juby]

13 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

Last time 5x happened to a Friday summer blobkbuster that made it to the top 10 was Jurassic Park in 1993 I think (ironically the first film to open over $50m, though finding Nemo was close with 4.84x) counting mid-week openings, I think TPM was the last to do over 5x

 

The 6th Sense was after TPM and JP (summer blockbuster that made it to Top10 of 1999 with Friday release date).

 

 

Edited June 23, 2022 by Juby

[JohnnyGossamer]

Getting anxious to see these Elvis numbers. Starting to feel more and more like 40M+ is going to happen. Lots of shows are filling up in my area. The Tuesday night sneaks were all sold out too. Buzz on social media seems very good as well. I have a feeling we're going to see a very impressive Friday number and, given it skews older, Sunday hold.