Weekly Thread 6/20/22 - JWD $8.5m, TGM $8.0m, LY $6.8m

[fmpro]

1 hour ago, VanillaSkies said:

JWD hasn’t even released in Japan yet (JWFK made 72 million in Japan) and it’s already at 650 million or so as of today. 
I would say 900 million is very likely at this point.

Nearly impossible to get under. DOM should do 120-125 mill, Japan 65-70 and 100+ from current OS should be no problem. China still chugging along. It will be closer to 950 mill than 900 mill IMO

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Felandria said:

Crazy thing about this weekend is you could tell me on Sunday we’ll have a five way tie at $30 million a piece, I would believe you.

 

I think it's gonna go...

 

1. TGM

2. JWD

3. Elvis

4. Lightyear

5. Black Phone

 

But throw this order in a blender, and it wouldn't surprise me in any direction...

Edited June 22, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[EmpireCity]

7 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I think it's gonna go...

 

1. TGM

2. JWD

3. Elvis

4. Lightyear

5. Black Phone

 

But throw this order in a blender, and it wouldn't surprise me in any direction...

 

Elvis is looking a lot stronger and should be #1

[Grebacio]

I think that only Maverick will land in the 30's this weekend. I had Elvis at 40's and Dominion, Lightyear and Black Phone all at 20's

[cmbbox2390]

 

[EmpireCity]

Just now, Grebacio said:

I think that only Maverick will land in the 30's this weekend. I had Elvis at 40's and Dominion, Lightyear and Black Phone all at 20's

 

I think JWD is going to better than the $20m range.  

[cmbbox2390]

 

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, Grebacio said:

I think that only Maverick will land in the 30's this weekend. I had Elvis at 40's and Dominion, Lightyear and Black Phone all at 20's

 

I think Elvis will do 40M+ and i also think Dominion could get in the 30s as well. Its weekdays so far have been promising.

 

Top Gun 30s as well, i see it slightly above Dominion this weekend. Lightyear and Black Phone both 20s.

 

Something like this imo:

 

01. Elvis - 46M

02. Top Gun - 35M

03. Dominion - 31M

04. Lightyear - 23M

05. Black Phone - 22M

[narniadis]

Solid holds all things considered coming off a holiday.

Saw JWD today with the wife and we both throughly enjoyed it. But also went in knowing what yall have griped about. 🤷‍♂️ I personally think the film followed a natural  progression for how "bad" guys would evolve their decisions and focus post the dinos escaping in movie 2. 

Can totally understand how the wom isnt strong, but I personally felt it was better than FK. Curious to see how close to Batman it finishes. 

[VanillaSkies]

39 minutes ago, cmbbox2390 said:

 

Well, at least summer weekdays are helping somewhat! Maybe it can leg it’s way through July if Minions doesn’t completely wreck it. 

[VanillaSkies]

39 minutes ago, cmbbox2390 said:

 

shame this is on D+ as of today.

I definitely think it could have otherwise legged it to 415, with Thor coming up. They could have even paired the two for double features. But few theatres are going to keep a product that’s been out so long and already on streaming over others.

[VanillaSkies]

39 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

I think Elvis will do 40M+ and i also think Dominion could get in the 30s as well. Its weekdays so far have been promising.

 

Top Gun 30s as well, i see it slightly above Dominion this weekend. Lightyear and Black Phone both 20s.

 

Something like this imo:

 

01. Elvis - 46M

02. Top Gun - 35M

03. Dominion - 31M

04. Lightyear - 23M

05. Black Phone - 22M

35 for TGM would be insanely good, considering it will likely stay flat next weekend thanks to the 4th holiday (and possibly continued IMAX sharing with Minions)

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, VanillaSkies said:

35 for TGM would be insanely good, considering it will likely stay flat next weekend thanks to the 4th holiday (and possibly continued IMAX sharing with Minions)

 

Yep maybe a bit too optimistic for it in my side but i actually underestimated this movies holds for three out of four weekends so far 😄 it really seems to play in its own league. Normally, id expect a way harsher drop coming off an inflated Holiday weekend but with Top Gun, you just never really know.

[Bigscrubnus]

My local theatre just pulled a strange move and stopped showing TGM in favor of Elvis and lightyear. It completely shocks me that they did this when TGM is holding so well and the implosion that lightyear had last weekend.

[Ethan Hunt]

11 hours ago, Mulder said:

Every time I see Top Gun: Maverick is 99 million away from 1 billion I'm fucking stunned. Absolutely insane that the sequel to Top Gun which had a bad reaction initially trailer-wise (Not reviews wise) with much mockery for its constant delays and skepticism over its success with a predecessor whose reception/memory (Online) has been frequently mocked and challenged has ended up being one of the best received blockbusters in ages both critically and audience wise and one of the most insane box office success stories without two huge markets even.

Wait what.

 

I for one thought it was a delight to watch the Top Gun Maverick trailer in theatres a couple times a month for two years. Fucking banger of a trailer 

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Elvis is looking a lot stronger and should be #1

 

I'm not convinced.  It's gonna do fine, but I'm not thinking over the top 2...

 

It's not something I think people are gonna walk up to, when they have a chance to finally see TGM on Imax again and say "no, let's choose Elvis today"...

 

But then, I never judge the music bio movies well...there is a market - I just don't know if they are the market totally back or lagging.  Since I think it's mostly older white women, I'm gonna think lagging...

[ringedmortality]

2 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

Wait what.

 

I for one thought it was a delight to watch the Top Gun Maverick trailer in theatres a couple times a month for two years. Fucking banger of a trailer 

 

They're called orders, Maverick.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I'm not convinced.  It's gonna do fine, but I'm not thinking over the top 2...

 

It's not something I think people are gonna walk up to, when they have a chance to finally see TGM on Imax again and say "no, let's choose Elvis today"...

 

But then, I never judge the music bio movies well...there is a market - I just don't know if they are the market totally back or lagging.  Since I think it's mostly older white women, I'm gonna think lagging...

The Dolby sales for Elvis are off the charts

[TwoMisfits]

B/c I made the crack about demos, now I figured I had to post them...from Deadline for Bohemian Rhapsody (which I think is more on point than Judy and which should be the closest type movie to Elvis)...at least I did guess the main demo right:)  https://deadline.com/2018/11/bohemian-rhapsody-nutcracker-weekend-box-office-tiffany-haddish-nobodys-fool-1202494598/

 

"Overall demos for Bohemian Rhapsody are 51% female, 49% male, with 77% over 25, 31% over 45, 52% under 35, with the single largest quad being 25-34 at 26%. Diversity demos shows 62% Caucasian, 20% Hispanic, 12% Asian and 6% African American. We hear that Bohemian played best in the West along with Canada, but really performed well everywhere (8 of the top 10 grosses were from the West Coast)."

Edited June 22, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[The Dark Alfred]

2 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

$5.15m for TG2 today

 

 

Thanks for the great news as always bud. That's easily the biggest 4th Wednesday ever (sans AS).

 

As of Elvis, I can't believe some people have suspicious minds about it opening #1. It's gonna win the weekend by a healthy margin. It's Elvis frikkin' Presley and Baz Luhrmann.

Edited June 22, 2022 by The Dark Alfred