Weekend Thread (6/24-26) | Actuals: Elvis 31.2, TGM 29.6, JWD 26.7, Black Phone 23.6, Lightyear 18.1

[JohnnyGossamer]

11 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I didn't put a number on the 5:)...just an order...of course, the order pretty much set Elvis and Black Phone opens (since even I didn't expect a 0% TGM drop when it won the weekend:)...and the opening movies are where I expected them - Lightyear and the dinos just aren't quite where I expected them:)...

 

I tend to only put numbers on OW:)...so under $60M Minions and $130-$150M Thor have been my last 2 calls from a week or 2 ago...

 

I guess now I put $37M on Superpets, but that one can be ignored:)...

You have been smart to go bearish rather than bullish on a lot of the summer stuff starting with JWD. You definitely nailed LY.

 

Having been considering all of your points to why TLT could go lower, I have it just above 160M+ right now. Unless the critics and early social media reaction on OW are similar to that of DSMoM, I don't think I'm coming down from that number much if at all.

Edited June 26, 2022 by JohnnyGossamer

[excel1]

Haven't seen it mentioned but the lack of TIM ALLEN in Lightyear may have well been a reason too.

[EmpireCity]

2 hours ago, Agafin said:

 

I would like to know too. Even with some exceptional drops I have a hard time seeing TGM topping Infinity War. How the hell would $700m be considered likely, let alone a "lock"?

 

It was only a few weeks ago when people were laughing at $600m being a lock, and now it will be there around July 10th.  

 

Let's see how it plays out with regards to $700m.  

[M37]

2 hours ago, Agafin said:

 

I would like to know too. Even with some exceptional drops I have a hard time seeing TGM topping Infinity War. How the hell would $700m be considered likely, let alone a "lock"?

I went ahead and sketched out a run from this point forward for TGM. This doesn't include an IMAX re-release and corresponding bump that we all know is coming, just a question of when, nor the late tail into September.  I wouldn't say $700M is locked, but a very good chance.

 

One's opinion on the plausibility depends on what you think the baseline drop rate is - I think its around 20% (if not under), rather than 25%, before factoring in competition, holidays, PLF drop, etc

 

Top Gun Maverick Projected Domestic Gross
Fri Date	Notes	Weekend	Wknd +/-	Weekly	Week +/-	Wknd %	Cumulative
27-May		$126.71		$205.60		61.6%	$205.60
3-Jun		$90.04	-28.9%	$137.74	-33.0%	65.4%	$343.34
10-Jun	vs JWD, loses PLF	$51.86	-42.4%	$78.82	-42.8%	65.8%	$422.17
17-Jun	Father's Day	$44.76	-13.7%	$69.06	-12.4%	64.8%	$491.22
24-Jun	vs Elvis, limited PLF	$30.50	-31.9%	$47.78	-30.8%	63.8%	$539.00
1-Jul	July 4th Week	$25.00	-18.0%	$39.50	-17.3%	63.3%	$578.50
8-Jul	vs Thor L&T	$17.50	-30.0%	$27.00	-31.6%	64.8%	$605.50
15-Jul	vs Crawdads	$13.50	-22.9%	$21.00	-22.2%	64.3%	$626.50
22-Jul	vs Nope	$11.00	-18.5%	$17.00	-19.0%	64.7%	$643.50
29-Jul		$9.50	-13.6%	$14.00	-17.6%	64.3%	$657.50
5-Aug	vs Bullet Train	$6.75	-28.9%	$10.00	-28.6%	65.0%	$667.50
12-Aug	IMAX Re-release?	$5.75	-14.8%	$8.50	-15.0%	66.6%	$676.00
19-Aug	IMAX Re-release?	$5.00	-13.0%	$7.25	-14.7%	68.2%	$683.25
26-Aug	IMAX Re-release?	$4.25	-15.0%	$6.00	-17.2%	69.8%	$689.25
2-Sep	Labor Day Weekend	$4.50	5.9%	$6.50	8.3%	64.3%	$695.75

 

 

[baumer]

Nothing pleases me more in terms of the box office, than seeing a Pixar film tank. Never been a big Pixar guy, never really been a big toy story guy either. So this is just a temporary bump in my serotonin levels.

[M37]

55 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

Pre-sales tracking does not indicate anything below 150m, so I don't know where you're getting this other than "My gut feelings"

It actually does. Current Thursday estimates from tracking are in $24-25M range, and given 3pm start and summer, Thor maybe gets a 6x … which would be $140-$150 OW

 

Now I think that number comes up to high $20s by opening, but something like $30/$180 seems like a reach at this point

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

Nothing pleases me more in terms of the box office, than seeing a Pixar film tank. Never been a big Pixar guy, never really been a big toy story guy either. So this is just a temporary bump in my serotonin levels.

Basically me watching the The Fall of The Last Jedi and The Rise of Skywalker. Also Solo movie. Annoyingly MCU seems to make money everytime.

[PDC1987]

2 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Yeh, I wasn’t a big fan of “Men” unfortunately. And I know people say “to be expected” and that a lot of the horrors in 2022 “have not had mass appeal” etc, but that’s not an excuse. The studios released these films in more than 2,000 cinemas.

And? Doesn't mean they have mainstream appeal.

[Juan Caballo]

44 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Could be... But, the trackers in the tracking thread, seem to see 25M to 30M Thursday number. I think it's getting closer to 30M as their expectation for that opening preview with the sales not stagnating. I believe I've read where Thor 4's still selling somewhat steady while Strange 2's presales stagnated a bit after an enormous initial rush. I think the immediate social media backlash to Strange being more of a horror flick and lacking in cameos kept it from what otherwise would've been a 200M+ OW DOM. With that, I still think 150M+ is happening OW DOM. But, yeah, the ceiling might not be all that much higher than that 150M+.

 

Early reactions do seem a bit better than the ones Strange 2 had but, of course, hard to ever put a ton of stock in early reactions. I think overall reviews will be similar to something like Guardians 2. While it may be too weird, too Waititi for some and become divisive like Strange did... It'll certainly be a more colorful movie and a comedy than Strange which I think makes it an easier sell and generally bodes well for legs especially in the middle of the summer with peak summer days. Just very little direct competition for through July after it opens and even in August. I guess Bullet Train and Nope? Not exactly though. 

These comparisons to Doctor Strange are a bit of a reach honestly. 

 

The reactions are much better than Doctor Strange 2. Not a bit better. It doesn't smell at divisiveness like Doctor Strange. 

 

We're past the "I don't like this new Thor". It's going to play much better with audiences and families. 

 

I think the critics score on RT will range between 85-93%. Which are much better than Doctor Strange 2.

 

Taika is maybe weird but it's a very funny and digestible weird. It's a colorful and summery weird. 

 

I gotta say... Thor 4 looks like a perfect Summer Marvel movie. 

[filmnerdjamie]

5 minutes ago, baumer said:

Nothing pleases me more in terms of the box office, than seeing a Pixar film tank. Never been a big Pixar guy, never really been a big toy story guy either. So this is just a temporary bump in my serotonin levels.

 

To me, it's the Goddamn cyncism of the whole project and how happy I was to see audiences see right through it on Day One. 

[Jonwo]

I think it's a wake up call for Pixar to refocus their efforts. They'll bounce back from this, I don't believe the freaking out by certain posters that Lightyear's failure will lead to all their films going to Disney+

[Krissykins]

4 minutes ago, PDC1987 said:

And? Doesn't mean they have mainstream appeal.

… clearly the studios did? Otherwise they wouldn’t have gone out to 2,000+ cinemas with them lol. 

Unless you think they went wide to waste and lose money. 

[baumer]

So I see the pixar loonies are still alive and well. One of them just gave me a not cool notification because I said that I'm glad that pixar finally had a disappointment.

Edited June 27, 2022 by baumer

[John Marston]

Thinking 140-150 right now for Thor 4

[Legion Again]

10 minutes ago, M37 said:

It actually does. Current Thursday estimates from tracking are in $24-25M range, and given 3pm start and summer, Thor maybe gets a 6x … which would be $140-$150 OW

 

Now I think that number comes up to high $20s by opening, but something like $30/$180 seems like a reach at this point

Ehhh… I don’t really think this is the most reasonable way to talk about the numbers. T-12 comps being 24 doesn’t really suggest the final num will be 24 unless the pace has been steady vs the comp. Haven’t done too much extrapolation recently but seems to be pointing more towards 28-30 for now.

[XXR vs XXR]

Just now, baumer said:

So I see the pixar loonies are still alive and well. One of them just gave me a not cool notification because I said that I'm glad that pics are finally had a disappointment.

 

I'm a Pixar looney because I don't think it's cool you're happy a film is failing at the box office? I wonder if I could tell you what you are without getting warning points... 

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Thinking 140-150 right now for Thor 4

For any other franchise, this would be a totally reasonable expectation for a sequel to 122M opener but MAN the MCU box office works unconventionally, even now after 14 years.

 

I think under 150 will be Flop territory 

[M37]

4 minutes ago, Juan Caballo said:

These comparisons to Doctor Strange are a bit of a reach honestly. 

 

The reactions are much better than Doctor Strange 2. Not a bit better. It doesn't smell at divisiveness like Doctor Strange. 

 

We're past the "I don't like this new Thor". It's going to play much better with audiences and families. 

 

I think the critics score on RT will range between 85-93%. Which are much better than Doctor Strange 2.

 

Taika is maybe weird but it's a very funny and digestible weird. It's a colorful and summery weird. 

 

I gotta say... Thor 4 looks like a perfect Summer Marvel movie. 

Don’t disagree with any of that, but also means it lacks the spoilers/need to see immediately effect of Strange or NWH, and also not too much on the calendar behind it where there’s a need to keep pace with releases. So a somewhat softer OW and better legs, basically double Ant-Man & Wasp with a couple extra million for Thursday 

[Juan Caballo]

8 minutes ago, baumer said:

Nothing pleases me more in terms of the box office, than seeing a Pixar film tank. Never been a big Pixar guy, never really been a big toy story guy either. So this is just a temporary bump in my serotonin levels.

 I don't like seeing movies bomb. 

 

But when it's these... blatant cashgrabs, out of someone's ass spin-off of Toy Story, at the same time being this anti-Toy Story movie that had nothing of Toy Story in it (other than the REAL BUZZ)... Bruh. They deserved it. 

 

Minions are also cashgrabs but they at least know their audience and what made kids love them and keep doing it. 

 

So, Disney only has 2 options. They either leave the Toy Story franchise to die or come back in some years desperate to make more money with this and release Toy Story 5. That's what people would rush to watch. That's what the fans love. Even tho the whinners would criticize all they want in social media like they did with Toy Story 4.

 

Conclusion: The only kind of possible continuation with this franchise that would make audiences rush would be Toy Story 5, like it or not. 

[Jonwo]

Surely Pixar should leave sequels and spin-offs for a while and just focus on originals. Minions makes sense because it's a prequel so they can play around with the characters without it effecting the original films.