Weekend Thread (6/24-26) | Actuals: Elvis 31.2, TGM 29.6, JWD 26.7, Black Phone 23.6, Lightyear 18.1

[CJohn]

Excellent for The Black Phone. Mediocre for Elvis.

[vale9001]

For Elvis today the screening are more full than yeasterday. I guess it hasn't the kind of audience can't wait until the weekend. 

So i'm for the high 30s

[XXR vs XXR]

I’m expecting around 10x previews for Elvis and 7-8x for Black Phone. We will see how it goes.

[ThomasNicole]

Excellent for The Black Phone and pretty good for Elvis. 

 

I'm always happy seeing different movies than blockbusters doing well too. 

 

With the type of walkups Black Phone had, +20M is locked. I think 25M is the lowest it can get, but since reception seems great and walkups was so strong yesterday, i think it actually have a shot in 30M. 

 

Elvis definitely doesn't look like an 40M opener, but 33-36M seems very reasonable, nice. 

 

If everything goes right, we can have two +100M grossers right here.

[Borobudur]

92% verified audience score for BP but there is still no score for Elvis. 

[Eric Duncan]

There a reason why Elvis doesn't have an Audience Score on RT yet? It's more than clear that there are enough rating submitted that we would have had something by now, but it's still not there.

 

As an aside, holy cow Black Phone with the 92% Verified score. An A- Cinemascore like Get Out probably won't happen, but fingers crossed!

[vale9001]

Black Phone it's one of these horror movies with an intriguing plot idea, low budget and huge costs of promotion and distribution. It's a good start but not that surprising. The audience are kids and they already there for horror movies even in pandemic. 

Edited June 24, 2022 by vale9001

[John Marston]

8 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Excellent for The Black Phone. Mediocre for Elvis.

 

Elvis appeals mostly to senior citizens who won’t rush out to see it 

[filmlover]

Honestly with no direct competition for the rest of the summer aside from Nope (and I guess the various August horror/thrillers) The Black Phone might be on track for a long run with the strong WOM it seems to be enjoying. Moving it from early February to a prime summer spot ended up being a genius move of confidence in retrospect.

[CJohn]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Honestly with no direct competition for the rest of the summer aside from Nope (and I guess the various August horror/thrillers) The Black Phone might be on track for a long run with the strong WOM it seems to be enjoying. Moving it from early February to a prime summer spot ended up being a genius move of confidence in retrospect.

It won't help that will be online in 2 weeks and this is the type of audience that practices piracy.

[M37]

5 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

Elvis appeals mostly to senior citizens who won’t rush out to see it 

I think the audience will be more mixed, perhaps closer to TGM with an definite old skew but still decent draw for younger & middle-aged adults. But that’s already factored into a higher expected IM, though should be leggier even from a mid-$30s opening and with summer weekdays. 

[BruiseCruise]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/movies/news/top-gun-maverick-s-streaming-release-date-reportedly-depends-on-tom-cruise/ar-AAYPCVS?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=96184c064e0e4ae3924a120dba6cf0d3

 

Quote

"The last I saw with Paramount was that the window is 120 days, but Paramount would like to go back to Tom Cruise and negotiate a shorter window in order to capture some of the home video revenue, whether that's on premium video on demand, whether it's on their streaming service Paramount Plus, yet to be determined," Hollywood insider Matthew Belloni said on his podcast, The Town with Matthew Belloni. "I know Paramount would very much like to get this movie onto a streaming service soon. But if it keeps playing in theaters like it's playing, there's really no incentive for Tom Cruise to agree to that, other than money, and he's a big believer in the theatrical ecosystem and he has control over this movie in his deal."

 

[LegendaryBen]

2 minutes ago, CJohn said:

It won't help that will be online in 2 weeks and this is the type of audience that practices piracy.

Where did you get this source from? Otherwise this is completely false unless it goes to Peacock in 2 weeks.

Edited June 24, 2022 by LegendaryBen

[wildphantom]

2 minutes ago, CJohn said:

It won't help that will be online in 2 weeks and this is the type of audience that practices piracy.

yep. About time they canned that policy. Ridiculous window for something opening over $20 million 

[Grebacio]

Just now, LegendaryBen said:

Where did you get this source from?

Universal movies that open below 50M go to VOD after 17 days

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, CJohn said:

It won't help that will be online in 2 weeks and this is the type of audience that practices piracy.

 

Is Black Phone releasing on streaming in 2 weeks already? If so, even with good WOM, RIP to its legs.

[Eric Duncan]

1 minute ago, LegendaryBen said:

Where did you get this source from?

From Universal. Movies that open below 50M get onto PVOD in 17 days. But I think CJohn has nothing to worry about, since PVOD doesn't really impact legs at all

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, LegendaryBen said:

Where did you get this source from?

Nowhere i think.

[cubsfan]

2 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/movies/news/top-gun-maverick-s-streaming-release-date-reportedly-depends-on-tom-cruise/ar-AAYPCVS?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=96184c064e0e4ae3924a120dba6cf0d3

 

 

Plus he gets a percentage of the profits. Not sure if he gets any for streaming and VOD?

[LegendaryBen]

1 minute ago, Grebacio said:

Universal movies that open below 50M go to VOD after 17 days

Thanks. Candyman and Old went to PVOD more than 17 days after its theatrical run.