4th of July Weekend | Tiktok propels Minions 2 to 108.5 3-Day OW | TGM 25.5, Elvis 19, JWD 15.6, Black Phone 12.3 | Independence Day Weekend Sale!

[XXR & Friends]

3 minutes ago, cruelintentionsisgoated said:

What do our experts estimate about next weekend's drop for TGM?

I'm thinking that a 20-25% drop would basically lock 700m domestic. Idk about catching Avatars 749m but you can never be sure with this film, can you?

 

I'm thinking it'll be 30-35% with Thor eating up screens and no patriotic Monday holiday to juice Sunday.

Edited July 4, 2022 by StormbreakerXXR

[Issac Newton]

FRI-MON 4-DAY WKND #BoxOffice:#MinionsTheRiseOfGru $127.9M#TopGunMaverick $33M/$571.5M#Elvis $23.5M/$71.8M#JurassicWorldDominion $19.2M/$335.3M#BlackPhone $14.6M/$49.8M#Lightyear $7.9M/$106.7M#Minions #TopGun #JurassicWorld

— Gitesh Pandya (@GiteshPandya) July 4, 2022

[Issac Newton]

4-Day weekend estimate for Elvis is $23.5M. Updated 3-day weekend estimate is $18.45M. Estimated total domestic gross through Monday stands at $71.82M.#ElvisMovie #BoxOffice @warnerbros @ElvisMovie

— BoxOfficeReport.com (@BORReport) July 4, 2022

[Borobudur]

4 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Updated 4-day weekend estimate for Lightyear is $7.87M. Updated 3-day weekend estimate is $6.37M. Estimated total domestic gross through Monday stands at $106.66M.#Lightyear #BoxOffice @Pixar @PixarsLightyear

— BoxOfficeReport.com (@BORReport) July 4, 2022

Fell 200k from estimate? How can Disney turn Buzz lightyear into a Morbius? 

[M37]

1 hour ago, Mojoguy said:

Lightyear is getting its first big theater count drop this weekend now the theaters see that it is a flop, those screens will likely be given to TGM.

Lightyear is going to loose a ton of screens and shows, but keep most of its locations (in part because Disney will likely “request” it)

[M37]

8 minutes ago, cruelintentionsisgoated said:

What do our experts estimate about next weekend's drop for TGM?

I'm thinking that a 20-25% drop would basically lock 700m domestic. Idk about catching Avatars 749m but you can never be sure with this film, can you?

TGM is losing what PLF shows it has, coming off a holiday on both ends of the weekend, and so I think this will be the last “bad” weekend drop for it. Had pencilled in a -40% when I did long range projections, so around there, maybe mid to high -30% 

 

And I still have it over $700M in the end 

[Borobudur]

 Illumination/Universal’s Minions: The Rise of Gru clinches an Independence Day 4-day opening record of $125.1M, the movie’s success this weekend should come as a reminder to many executives, both motion picture and streaming, as well as Wall Street, about the power of the big screen.

Rise of Gru‘s 3-day of $107M is the second best ever for a Despicable Me/Minions franchise or Illumination Entertainment movie after Minions’ $115.7M start in 2015. The 4-day take is now second best after Minions‘ $128.7M. Still fantastic despite slightly lower estimates today as moviegoing recedes due to families making time for the Independence Day holiday. Rise of Gru‘s Monday at $18.1M is expected to be 30% off its Sunday gross of $26M.

[John Rambo]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

TGM is losing what PLF shows it has, coming off a holiday on both ends of the weekend, and so I think this will be the last “bad” weekend drop for it. Had pencilled in a -40% when I did long range projections, so around there, maybe mid to high -30% 

 

And I still have it over $700M in the end 

15-18M Weekend with weekdays making another 8m?

[titanic2187]

1 minute ago, Borobudur said:

 Illumination/Universal’s Minions: The Rise of Gru clinches an Independence Day 4-day opening record of $125.1M, the movie’s success this weekend should come as a reminder to many executives, both motion picture and streaming, as well as Wall Street, about the power of the big screen.

Rise of Gru‘s 3-day of $107M is the second best ever for a Despicable Me/Minions franchise or Illumination Entertainment movie after Minions’ $115.7M start in 2015. The 4-day take is now second best after Minions‘ $128.7M. Still fantastic despite slightly lower estimates today as moviegoing recedes due to families making time for the Independence Day holiday. Rise of Gru‘s Monday at $18.1M is expected to be 30% off its Sunday gross of $26M.

Barely 10x IM from 10.75m despite holiday. Those push teen fans rush really turn a family movie into a semi HP/twilight. 20% drop from Saturday is a meh hold , even JWD with higher base number only drop 18%.

[M37]

6 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Barely 10x IM from 10.75m despite holiday. Those push teen fans rush really turn a family movie into a semi HP/twilight. 20% drop from Saturday is a meh hold , even JWD with higher base number only drop 18%.

Friday was holiday inflated, and 10x was within the range many had before the weekend, though the daily path it took to get there was more TikTok teen/less family than I think anyone anticipated 

 

But also Thursday was probably teen juiced as well

[Issac Newton]

Monday Update From Deadline Hollywood:

 

1.) Minions: Rise of Gru (Uni) 4,391 theaters, Fri $48.3M, Sat $32.6M, Sun $26M, Mon $18.1M, 3-day $107M, 4-day $125.1M/Wk 1

 

2.) Top Gun: Maverick (Par) 3,843 (-105) theaters, Fri $7.1M, Sat $9.7M Sun $8.9M, Mon $7.2M, 3-day $25.8M (-14%), 4-day $33M, Total $571.5M/Wk 6

 

3.) Elvis (WB) 3,932 (+26) theaters, Fri $5.3M, Sat $6.8M, Sun $6.3M, Mon $5M, 3-day $18.4M (-41%) 4-day $23.5M, Total $71.8M/Wk 2

Great hold here. But it’s not the young kids who are propelling this movie in weekend 2 PostTrak exits. Rather, it’s the continued flow of older women. Females 25+ repped half the audience (+5%). The over 55 crowed showed up at 33% this weekend (+2%), while the under 25 at 18% (-3%).

 

4.) Jurassic World Dominion (Uni) 3,801 (-432) theaters, Fri $4.7M, Sat $6.1M, Sun $5.2M, Mon $3.7M, 3-day $16M (-40%), 4-day $19.7M, Total $335.8M/Wk 4

 

5.) The Black Phone (Uni) 3,156 (+6) theaters, Fri $3.9M, Sat $4.5M Sun $3.7M, Mon $2.2M, 3-day $12.2M (-48%), 4-day $14.4M,/Total $49.6M: Wk 2

Typically horror films drop like a rock in weekend 2, more than -60%. Not this one.

 

6.) Lightyear (Dis) 3,800 (-455) theaters, Fri $2M, Sat $2.4M , Sun $1.9M, Mon $1.49M, 3-day $6.37M (-65%), 4-day $7.86M, Total $106.6M/Wk 3

 

7.) Mr. Malcolm’s List (BST) 1,384 theaters, Fri $311K, Sat $285K, Sun $231K, Mon $175K, 3-day $826,3K, 4-day $1M/Wk 1

 

8.) Everything, Everywhere All at Once (A24) 607 (+83) theaters, Fri $141K, Sat $209K Sun $202K, Mon $121K 3-day $552K (+4%), 4-day $673K, Total $67.1M/Wk 15

 

9.) Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (Dis) 590 (-1,265) theaters, Fri $108k, Sat $152K, Sun $131K, Mon $92K, 3-day $391K (-78%), 4-day $483K, Total $410.6M/Wk 9

 

10.) Jug Jugg Jeeyo (Moviegoer) 318 theaters, Fri $98,6K, Sat $112K, Sun $99,4K, Mon $81K 3-day $310K (-57%), 4-day $391K, Total: $1.5M/Wk 2

 

11.) Marcel the Shell With Shoes On (A24) 22 theaters (+16), Fri $92K, Sat $85K Sun $82K, Mon $49,6K, 3-day $258,4K (+62%), 4-day $308K, Total $530,7K/Wk 2

[Valonqar]

2 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

3.) Elvis (WB) 3,932 (+26) theaters, Fri $5.3M, Sat $6.8M, Sun $6.3M, Mon $5M, 3-day $18.4M (-41%) 4-day $23.5M, Total $71.8M/Wk 2

Great hold here. But it’s not the young kids who are propelling this movie in weekend 2 PostTrak exits. Rather, it’s the continued flow of older women. Females 25+ repped half the audience (+5%). The over 55 crowed showed up at 33% this weekend (+2%), while the under 25 at 18% (-3%).

 

 

 

They are also a demo that is very into repeat views. 

[cruelintentionsisgoated]

10 minutes ago, John Rambo said:

15-18M Weekend with weekdays making another 8m?

 

Feel free to correct my rationale, but for the remaining weekdays (t,w,t) to add up to 8m, wouldn't we need an insanely high Tuesday drop from boxofficeguru's 7,2m Monday estimate?

Or are you referring to the weekdays after the next weekend?

[John Rambo]

36 minutes ago, cruelintentionsisgoated said:

 

Feel free to correct my rationale, but for the remaining weekdays (t,w,t) to add up to 8m, wouldn't we need an insanely high Tuesday drop from boxofficeguru's 7,2m Monday estimate?

Or are you referring to the weekdays after the next weekend?

I was referring to weekdays after next weekend...potential 23m-26m weekly gross on cards?

[Krissykins]

Did Universal get a little overexcited then? Minions down $2.7m from estimates. Still great obviously. 

[Jonwo]

16 hours ago, Menor Reborn said:

Everyone had one to two years of their lives "stolen" to some degree or another, they still shouldn't disrupt the movie for everyone else.  

Teens who are disruptive should have the book thrown at them. Perhaps several books.

[Jonwo]

4 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

People used to say Pixar always succeeded b/c they pulled so strongly with 25+...well, Illumination might start to be in that same "never miss" stratosphere if they can pull 13-25 every movie like they did for this one...

Illumination aren't immune to films underperforming, SLOP2 did though still make money.

 

I do think we shouldn't be writing Pixar's obituary just because they had a failure. 

 

 

[M37]

1 hour ago, John Rambo said:

15-18M Weekend with weekdays making another 8m?

More like $15.5-$17.5 and $8.5-$9.5 from weekdays, or $24-$27 for the week 

[TwoMisfits]

37 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Did Universal get a little overexcited then? Minions down $2.7m from estimates. Still great obviously. 

 

Much less family turnout/much more 13-25 turnout leads to a Spiderman Homecoming OW look...

 

I'd expect the movie to play very similarly with a huge drop in weekend #2 and then really great legs from then on...

[TwoMisfits]

22 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Illumination aren't immune to films underperforming, SLOP2 did though still make money.

 

I do think we shouldn't be writing Pixar's obituary just because they had a failure. 

 

 

 

Oh definitely, they can underperform.  But if they have a creation team that has cracked 13-25 interest, and a marketing team that spectacularly draws them out, Illumination will be looking very good.

 

Put me down as Mario going HUGE next year if they keep the same marketing team for that movie...