Weekend thread 7/15-7/17 | Actuals: Thor 4 46.63M, Minions 26.83, Crawdads 17.25, TGM 12.26, Elvis 8, Paws of Fury 6.31

[Firepower]

29 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Love And Thunder's raw numbers aren't disappointing. It should recover in the coming weeks especially considering no other mega blockbusters are coming out. Marvel are safe for now but if they continue to make disappointments like L&T, MOM and especially Eternals the box office will eventually start hurting.

There were no mega blockbusters this weekend...

[charlie Jatinder]

15 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

That's your projection, sure. I don't like falling into this rabbit hole of everything that doesn't make a billion is a disappointment or a flop. Too many people on the internet believe that and it's annoying. I already have to deal with The Batman is a flop nonsense.

The $725M it will do is actually par $1B with normal ER & missing markets, so that $1B disappointment isn't gonna be an issue here.

 

Thor 4 should have perhaps done $1.3B 

[Nikostar]

2 minutes ago, Firepower said:

There were no mega blockbusters this weekend...

And this weekend it’s losing all of its imax and premium screens to Nope so it’s not looking good.

[Liiviig 1998]

16 minutes ago, John Rambo said:

I dont think LT numbers can be considered as a disappointment considering the fact that it did not release in a 30M Middle east market, 20-30m Russia and 150m China....decent numbers

 

Even MoM numbers were not disappointing...945M WW with mixed WoM is no easy task and again No R&C release

Really  DS made 540m OS and 410m dom  of terrible legs  with the same conditions.

 

Thor with good wom could have done 400m+ Dom.+ 500m OS pretty well.

 

It's falling almost 200m below that.

 

You clearly ignoring context here.

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

The $725M it will do is actually par $1B with normal ER & missing markets, so that $1B disappointment isn't gonna be an issue here.

 

Thor 4 should have perhaps done $1.3B 

 

Yes to the ER/missing market OS issues. Nothing we (or Marvel) can do about that. 

 

The main issue is the quality. A Ragnarok level reception probably adds $200-250M to the global cume.

[Doffy]

We have to consider

700 =1b 

400=700 .

 

 

 

[reddevil19]

4 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

I don't deny that a better movie would have made more money. Money was absolutely left on the table, although I don't buy that 500mil domestic talk.

Which is why I gave GOTG2 as an example. That one had the same level of love for its predecessor as L&T does - but L&T also had the IW and EG love for Thor, and the Guardians themselves for the marketing. As I said before, forget the OTT 500-600 DOM, 1.2 billion WW predictions. GOTG2 numbers were entirely reasonable to expect given all the goodwill for this character. The fact that it won't sniff those numbers, and basically be fairly flat with Ragnarok is a disappointment. It's not a flop, it's going to end up making a profit, but there is a lot left on the table and especially with a brand like the MCU, you have to look at that when judging whether or not the movie underperformed. And when it's all said and done, it will be an underperformer. And that will be down to the reception (because, again, GOTG 2 comparison - it opened at the same level but will finish tens of millions off its total, with a barren summer which a better received movie could have taken advantage of). Simple as that.

[Liiviig 1998]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

The $725M it will do is actually par $1B with normal ER & missing markets, so that $1B disappointment isn't gonna be an issue here.

 

Thor 4 should have perhaps done $1.3B 

It could have still done way more even accounting for ER and missing markets hence making it a disappointment.

 

 

 

 

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

17 minutes ago, grim22 said:

It's not that it's failing to make a Billion, it's more that there will be barely any improvement, if any, on Ragnarok.

 

Can't ask for a better setup for the movie than coming off Ragnarok with the same creative team back together, a hook with Jane Foster Thor with Portman returning, Guardians in the movie as well, Thor being one of the most loved characters out of IW/Endgame and trailers which broke viewership records. There was potential for a lot more at the box office here.

Was Jane's return really a big draw? I remember MCU fans calling her a weak point of the first two movies and wanting Thor to get with Sif. Portman has a following but they're not necessarily comic book movie fans. 

 

I think there was the potential for Love & Thunder to do a bit better than it has based on quality, but they're also four movies in. People either like the character's solo movies or they don't and there's only so much room for growth. The Disney+ component also doesn't help, especially if the perception is of the movie being not that great. For a so-so movie, people can wait a month and a half.

 

 

Edited July 17, 2022 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[John Rambo]

1 minute ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Really  DS made 540m OS and 410m dom  of terrible legs  with the same conditions.

 

Thor with good wom could have done 400m+ Dom.+ 500m OS pretty well.

 

It's falling almost 200m below that.

 

You clearly ignoring context here.

Thor LT suffered from lacklustre hype and its trailers were not upto the mark

 

LT wasn't as intriguing as MoM and add its WoM which added fuel to the fire....MoM had that NWH factor...people were hyped up during NWH itself and thats what made MoM open so big all over.

 

MoM had a upper hand in one department while LT lacked in both (Hype & WoM)

[Firepower]

700 mln for Thor is not good, no way to spin it, it's a decrease from Ragnarok. A few more Marvel underperfomances and talks about superhero fatigue will get louder and louder.

[filmlover]

Just now, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

Was Jane's return really a big draw? I remember MCU fans calling her a weak point of the first two movies and wanting Thor to get with Sif. Portman has a following but they're not necessarily comic book movie fans. 

 

I think there was the potential for Love & THUNDER to do a bit better than it has based on quality, but they're also four movies in. People either like the character's solo movies or they don't and there's only so much room for growth. The Disney+ component also doesn't help, especially if the perception is of the movie being not that great.

They were hyping up her return back when it was announced in 2019 that she would be a big part of the action this time around instead merely sitting on the sidelines or only existing as a plot device (like she was in the second Thor movie).

[MrPink]

13 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

Was Jane's return really a big draw? I remember MCU fans calling her a weak point of the first two movies and wanting Thor to get with Sif. Portman has a following but they're not necessarily comic book movie fans. 

 

I think there was the potential for Love & Thunder to do a bit better than it has based on quality, but they're also four movies in. People either like the character's solo movies or they don't and there's only so much room for growth. The Disney+ component also doesn't help, especially if the perception is of the movie being not that great. For a so-so movie, people can wait a month and a half.

 

 

I think people were interested to see the film do Portman justice. 
 

Still don’t give a shit about sif 

[baumer]

1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:

Entered Friday or today? 

 

If it was on Friday then the impact is probably 0, it just had another excellent drop.

 

I saw it on there last night so I assume it was there for Friday as well.

[Liiviig 1998]

4 minutes ago, John Rambo said:

Thor LT suffered from lacklustre hype and its trailers were not upto the mark

 

LT wasn't as intriguing as MoM and add its WoM which added fuel to the fire....MoM had that NWH factor...people were hyped up during NWH itself and thats what made MoM open so big all over.

 

MoM had a upper hand in one department while LT lacked in both (Hype & WoM)

You forget DS2 had mixed WOM  too and had BVS level legs ,can we all stop acting it wouldn't have  made way more(1.1bn+) even with Missing markets and ER . 

 

Apply the same to thor 4 (900m+).

 

The only difference btn this and DS2  is that DS2 made almost 300m more than it's sequel which is huge jump and a 200m budget

 

,This is not making even ragnarok WW minus china and barely scratching past 700m on a 250m budget.

 

Money is clearly being left on the table due to audience reception.

 

 

 

[The Dark Alfred]

44 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Its anyways too late after reviews to have any sort of expectations. $500M is what it should have done. Simple.

 

You don't need to be as strong as Iron Man for $500M.

 

Dude, you will be disappointed to see your name attached to such ridiculous statements. Fact is that no IM or CA film came to close to 500m but Thor should have? lol

Edited July 17, 2022 by The Dark Alfred

[Daxtreme]

Back in THOR RAGNAROK days you had to wait 3 months before being able to see MCU movies out of theaters, now it's 45 days.

 

I'm pretty sure this is having an impact. Look at SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME. It didn't even have a planned release date for a while, no one knew when it was coming out. I went to see it with 5 friends in February. At that point in time for any other MCU movie, it'd be on Disney+ already. No monerino from us!

 

If the immediate rush factor of seeing the movie isn't powerful, and the people feeling like it's required, lots of people especially families are choosing to wait now, and I mean why not? It's free 45 days later

[grey ghost]

1 hour ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

I wouldn't call it a war, exactly. That suggests both sides stand an equal chance of winning.

 

Which side easily wins?

[John Rambo]

4 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

You forget DS2 had mixed WOM  too and had BVS level legs ,can we all stop acting it wouldn't have  made way more(1.1bn+) even with Missing markets and ER . 

 

Apply the same to thor 4 (900m+).

 

The only difference btn this and DS2  is that DS2 made almost 300m more than it's sequel which is huge jump and a 200m budget

 

,This is not making even ragnarok WW minus china and barely scratching past 700m on a 250m budget.

 

Money is clearly being left on the table due to audience reception.

 

 

 

I never missed Mixed WoM for MoM...the last line i clearly mentioned about it.

 

Guess we have to accept LT's WoM is worse than MoM. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

37 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

400m is really doable of a 144m weekend. Why are you acting like 2.36* legs with no competition and summer weekdays. are the best it could have done?

 

Love your strawman of calling it disaster yet so many here are calling it a disappointment.

 

You point out  the reviews clearly lowered it changes so your saying clearly if reviews were better it would have done  better that easily.

 

So clearly it's a disappointment due to its reception then and could have made more if conditions were right then . You contradicting yourself.

 

 

 

 

 

Better movie could have certainly done say 160m weekend. 2.7x that (empty summer and good reception) gives ~432m which is like 100m more than where it's going to end up. This movie could have certainly done 900+ WW with normal good reception, even 1B was possible if reception was really great.