Weekend Thread (10/14-16) | Weekend Estimates: Halloween Ends 40.05, Smile 12.6, Lyle 7.3, Woman King 3.7, Amsterdam 2.8

[Valonqar]

35 minutes ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

SMILE's legs are particularly perplexing considering the reception isn't anything out of the ordinary.

 

But it is. poeple look too much into whether it's A+ or A but A+ doesn't mean shit if your movie only plays well in the demo and nowhere else. Smile reached out of the demo. It's attracting not just horror fans but also casuals who want to see what's eevryone talking about. 

[CaptNathanBrittles]

14 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

But it is. poeple look too much into whether it's A+ or A but A+ doesn't mean shit if your movie only plays well in the demo and nowhere else. Smile reached out of the demo. It's attracting not just horror fans but also casuals who want to see what's eevryone talking about. 

 

6.9 IMDb, 78% rt.com, 68 metacritic. Nothing out of the ordinary.

[ThomasNicole]

2 minutes ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

 

6.9 IMDb, 78% rt.com, 68 metacritic. Nothing out of the ordinary.

People can still recommend something they think is a 7/10, this is his point (i think) 

 

Yeah it gets a B Cinemascore which is usually a bad sign for legs, but horror always have lower grades and people can still like it a lot even if they didn't think is perfect. 

 

Personally i watched Smile and find it a B, but i really loved the direction and the style mix of subgenres so i decided to watch it again with my mom. 

 

She hated the ending, but she adored everything else and want to watch it again as well. 

 

 

[Borobudur]

22 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

But it is. poeple look too much into whether it's A+ or A but A+ doesn't mean shit if your movie only plays well in the demo and nowhere else. Smile reached out of the demo. It's attracting not just horror fans but also casuals who want to see what's eevryone talking about. 

TWK seem to be the example of this. The movie A+ cinemascore didn't really help the movie to develop stronger legs compared to other Sony's poorer received offerings like Uncharted, Crawdads, BT or The Invitation.   

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Eric Strode said:

That's still 74%. An 80+% drop would mean an 8.25M weekend. Only 15 movies have dropped more than 80% on their second weekends. And of them I only recognize like...six of them off the top of my head. Two of them are re-releases of classic films, so they don't even count. Plus these are films that seem to be from smaller studios, lost theaters in their second weekend, and only played in a couple hundred theaters anyways. Halloween Kills is almost guaranteed to retain almost all its locations, so an 80+% drop is nearly impossible. It would have to have as good a calendar for its opening as Friday the 13th (it didn't) or have WOM as atrocious as Gigli (it doesn't).

 

If even The Devil Inside, a film with perhaps the worst WOM in cinema history, only dropped 76%, I think Halloween Kills isn't going to fall worse than that.

Oh. I thought you were replying to my Smile over HE next weekend comment, thinking HE will probably have to drop 80% for that. I didn't bother doing math.

 

But yeah, 80% is unlikely, will need something special.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Weekly non-IP update Top 10

 

Nope- 123.2m (171.3m WW)

Free Guy- 121.6m (331.5m WW)

The Lost City- 105.3m (190.8m WW)

Everything Everywhere- 70m (100.7m WW)

Dog- 61.7m (84.9m WW)

The Woman King- 59.7m (76.5m WW)

Tenet- 58.5m (365.2m WW)

Don't Worry Darling- 42.4m (78.2m WW)

Barbarian- 38.9m (40.6m WW)

The Northman- 34.2m (69.1m WW)

 

Ticket To Paradise is already at 70m and hasn't opened domestically yet. Even with a lower opening, it could finish 30-40 (even more with WOM and older audience demo) and place on the list

[Valonqar]

2 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

TWK seem to be the example of this. The movie A+ cinemascore didn't really help the movie to develop stronger legs compared to other Sony's poorer received offerings like Uncharted, Crawdads, BT or The Invitation.   

 

Yep, good example. TWK was supposed to have Smile legs with A+. Instead, it had good enough legs but nothing out of this world because it didn't crossover. I don't want to compare it to summer movies cause they have weekday hold advantage, but Smile's holds put in the sharp relief that A+ doesn't mean much if your movie is interesting only to a limited audience. It's gonna make what it's gonna make but not above that. 

[SnokesLegs]

1 hour ago, Legion By Night said:

Deadline write up his weekend is absolutely hilarious

They’re so out of touch and hysterical. I liked Halloween Ends and even I can see that it’s the WOM that’s killing it, not Peacock. The vast majority of people who watched it on Peacock this weekend wouldn’t have gone to the theatre to watch it anyway. If it’d been on Netflix their argument might hold water, but not a streaming service in its infancy in terms of subscribers (who lets be honest, are only signed up for The Office).

[WayneBorg]

MINIONS 2 passes SHREK 2 to become the #14 highest animated film of all time. This also makes all the last 4 Despicable Me movies higher WW than any Shrek film to date. 

 

Grosses

DOMESTIC (39.6%)
$368,354,000

INTERNATIONAL (60.4%)
$562,340,000

WORLDWIDE
$930,694,000

[Eric Prime]

19 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Oh. I thought you were replying to my Smile over HE next weekend comment, thinking HE will probably have to drop 80% for that. I didn't bother doing math.

 

But yeah, 80% is unlikely, will need something special.

Don’t worry. I know Smile is likely  to be ahead of Halloween next weekend

[LonePirate]

This is simply absurd. TGM at #10 now has 21 weekends in the domestic Top 10. The rest of the Top 10 (#1 - #9) has a total of 28 weeks combined.

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

SMILE's legs are particularly perplexing considering the reception isn't anything out of the ordinary.

Horror films don’t get over a 3x multiplier within just 17 days and fall only -18% in their second weekend without an exceptional reception from audiences. 

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

SMILE's legs are particularly perplexing considering the reception isn't anything out of the ordinary.

Classic case of right movie at the right time. It's a well-reviewed horror movie out in time for October and its closest competition is a panned sequel in a franchise that was already following a panned previous installment (and is also available to watch at home at the same time). After seeing it I'm not surprised it has taken advantage of the open market for spooky season.

Edited October 16, 2022 by filmlover

[Eric Prime]

2 hours ago, Legion By Night said:

Deadline write up his weekend is absolutely hilarious

At this point, Ted Bundy could rise from the grave, say "streaming services suck lol", and Deadline Anthony would be all "you know, this guy was on to something". Their anti-streaming bit's just gotten old at this point.

[DAJK]

Lol I realized that The Invitation just really quietly made its way to nearly a 4x multiplier. Weird.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Give me Smile @ $9.83M and Ends @ $10.16M next weekend. 

[babz06]

Terrifier 2 is killing it, that WOM is insane. I wonder if they will expand more? It nearly made as much as Bros in about 1/3 the amount of theaters.

Edited October 16, 2022 by babz06

[Eric Prime]

17 minutes ago, babz06 said:

Terrifier 2 is killing it, that WOM is insane. I wonder if they will expand more? It nearly made as much as Bros in about 1/3 the amount of theaters.

Learned today there are reports of people passing out and vomiting after watching this because it's just scary. I mean I guess there's precedence for this, with the first Exorcist and all, but this sounds a wee bit fishy. But I guess any publicity is good publicity

[ringedmortality]

Do I have to watch Terrifier 1 in order to watch Terrifier 2

[grey ghost]

4 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

hopefully the weekend thread for black panther 2 really pops off. we might even get to 20 pages.

 

Funny book movies have a 25 page minimum.