A2 WEEKEND THREAD | 134.1M DOM OW | Thurs 17m / Fri 36m / Sat 45m / Sun 36m

[Cooper Legion]

1 hour ago, Brainbug said:

Is it too early for the What Whent Wrong Thread?

Too late

[Cooper Legion]

12 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

God.

 

This is the most anticipated film of all time 

It’s not even in the top 3 most anticipated films of the past 5 years 

Edited December 15, 2022 by Korra Legion

[Ethan Hunt]

1 minute ago, Korra Legion said:

It’s not even in the top 3 most anticipated films of the past 5 years 

Lmfao. I can't even name any other movies that came out in the past 5 years

[adaros]

31 minutes ago, krla said:

He'd said in GQ that it needs to be the third or fourth highest grossing film of all time. That's 2 billies. If he meant he'd said that years prior, then you also have to take into account that the costs for A2 increased a lot from then, and that dollars were worth more at that time. If you spend half a billion dollars over the course of 13 years making a movie, and then you earn that all back, you've lost money. And if the studios had to finance this with a single dollar of debt, then you're looking at an even deeper hole.

From other interviews we already known Cameron made a pitch for sequels to Fox after first Avatar was released (around 2010-2012).
In 2013 sequels were already greenlit, as they hired team to work on all scripts + next few years of pre-production and tech R&D and shooting started in 2017. 
Articles said he need $2B to break even (because 4th or 5th highest grossing movie in 2022 are all $2B+).
They represent it like Cameron was making a movie budget pitch to studio recently which make no sense for a movie with active development and pre-production starting early 2013. You don't do movie budget pitch to studio after 7+ years of active work and principal photography and mocap is done.

4th or 5th highest grossing movies between 2010-2013 were at $1.3B.
These clickbait articles made lot of clicks for sure, I'm not going to comment on how dollar was worth more at that time we can dump any other arguments and not agree with each other. 
Official budget for part 2 is $350m + add to that marketing costs. Based on that I'm speculating breakeven point could be around $1.3B.

Edited December 15, 2022 by adaros

[MrPink]

Just now, Ethan Hunt said:

Lmfao. I can't even name any other movies that came out in the past 5 years

 

Unhinged

[Cooper Legion]

1 minute ago, Ethan Hunt said:

Lmfao. I can't even name any other movies that came out in the past 5 years

You seem to be confusing “most anticipated” with “most anticipated by Ethan Hunt.”    
 

If you want to bestow the latter title on it I certainly have no grounds to object 😛 

[Ethan Hunt]

1 minute ago, Korra Legion said:

You seem to be confusing “most anticipated” with “most anticipated by Ethan Hunt.”    
 

If you want to bestow the latter title on it I certainly have no grounds to object 😛 

I mean. I still think what I said is true 

 

Well no I don't actually. 

 

But I do think it is definetly in the top 3 most anticipated of the last 5 years lol

Edited December 15, 2022 by Ethan Hunt

[Gkalaitza]

5 minutes ago, adaros said:

From other interviews we already known Cameron made a pitch for sequels to Fox after first Avatar was released (around 2010-2012).
In 2013 sequels were already greenlit, as they hired team to work on all scripts + next few years of pre-production and tech R&D and shooting started in 2017. 
Articles said he need $2B to break even (because 4th or 5th highest grossing movie in 2022 are all $2B+).
They represent it like Cameron was making a movie budget pitch to studio recently which make no sense for a movie with active development and pre-production starting early 2013. You don't do movie budget pitch to studio after 7+ years of active work and principal photography and mocap is done.
4th or 5th highest grossing movies 2010-2013 and that is around $1.3B.
These clickbait articles made lot of clicks for sure, I'm not going to comment on how dollar was worth more at that time we can dump any other arguments and not agree with each other. 
Official budget for part 2 is $350m + add to that marketing costs. Based on that I'm speculating breakeven point could be around $1.3B.

In the interview (or another one that he repeats himself) Cameron actualy specifies that the "Avatar 2 is the worst buisness decision smth smth" was what he told a Fox exec in particular (so yeah at the very least pre-2017) and the " needs to be 4th-5th highest grossing film to break even " is quoted as a continuation of the previous statement. So yeah it was something said before getting greenlit and Cameron stuck with it cause its cool and gets engagement in interviews.

[Brainbug]

9 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

Lmfao. I can't even name any other movies that came out in the past 5 years

 

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
Jurassic World: Dominion
Godzilla vs Kong

Godzilla: King of the Monsters
 

There is 4 already!

[Ethan Hunt]

Just now, Brainbug said:

 

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
Jurassic World: Dominion
Godzilla vs Kong

Godzilla: King of the Monsters
 

There is 4 already!

Literally who 

[Brainbug]

20 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

Hi

 

How's that Michael Manns Untitled Cyberthriller over 100M in China Club going?

[Cooper Legion]

I mean, I guess even tlj is in the past 5 years (by like, a 0 day margin 😂 ) so that’s 4 above this. Could argue for others but it gets murky.

[Cooper Legion]

1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

 

How's that Michael Manns Untitled Cyberthriller over 100M in China Club going?

By the time it gets released it will succeed on the first ticket sale 

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, Verrows said:

I thought Sandberg said production was on schedule and that the move was simply for a better date. Or do I have that wrong? I'm pretty sure he went out of his way to say it's ready (or it would have been ready).

 

I thought it was production, but I haven't followed the WB drama too closely.

 

That's a move I think they'll regret. Especially if A:TWOW does underperform.

 

I feel a fun, light superhero film is exactly what this holiday period could use.

[Menor the Destroyer]

8 minutes ago, Korra Legion said:

I mean, I guess even tlj is in the past 5 years (by like, a 0 day margin 😂 ) so that’s 4 above this. Could argue for others but it gets murky.

If we go WW I think only the obvious EG/IW/NWH. DOM would add TLJ/I2/BP/TLK.

Edited December 15, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[Reddroast]

15 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

I mean. I still think what I said is true 

 

Well no I don't actually. 

 

But I do think it is definetly in the top 3 most anticipated of the last 5 years lol

I can see a case for top ten or 5 but not 3 

Those go to marvel movies

[Ethan Hunt]

2 minutes ago, Reddroast said:

I can see a case for top ten or 5 but not 3 

Those go to marvel movies

Yeah but you're also a troll who just acts like a dick about everything Avatar related 

[Cooper Legion]

4 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

If we go WW I think only 3. 

WW 4th, DOM like 11th?
 

Could use adjusted 17day cume or something to be generous…

[Verrows]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

With the amount of screens A2 is getting?  It was absolutely the right decision.

 

It's not just dollars, but real estate, and A2 is absolutely gobbling up all the screens it can.  And not just because of runtime, but because of having extra screens devoted to 3D (or, if one prefers, adding more 2D screens for the plebs who are demanding it with their wallets).

 

Now A3?  That's all gonna be down to the legs, as I do agree with @stuart360 that there's a lot of premature spiking of the football goin' on in this thread.

Yeah, but would it if Shazam was still there? This seems like a chicken and egg thing.

 

Obviously not arguing that Avatar wouldn't be gobbling a lot of screens - that's par for the course for the Christmas box office main event - but it's not like the picture would look the exact same if Shazam was in the mix. It seems to be entirely BECAUSE of the lack of product in the marketplace.

[Cooper Legion]

The dec 16 date was obvious untenable, but dec 21 would have been workable. Puss in some ways more of an issue (more direct demo competition)