A2 WEEKEND THREAD | 134.1M DOM OW | Thurs 17m / Fri 36m / Sat 45m / Sun 36m

[Verrows]

I'd point and call out the people who assumed this movie would set records and stuff, but I too took it for granted that this would be a $2B or close to it mega hit. 

 

This turn of events is quite astonishing, especially after international presales started.

[kayumanggi]

3 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Went to see Avatar 2 in IMAX 3D with laser tonight and it looked insane. Makes some of the CGI we’ve seen this year look an absolute shambles in comparison lol. 

 

We only have one IMAX here with this kind of laser technology and it's like 3 hours away from me. 🙄

 

I wonder how different is it from 'just' an IMAX screen?

[kayumanggi]

6 minutes ago, Jim Shorts said:

Thanks!

 

How could I forget supes.

 

Jim! Nice to see you again. 😀

[Ozymandias]

are we still on track for 5 billies?

[Vector Sigma]

19 minutes ago, stephanos13 said:

 

With a multiplier of 4x legs it gives around 560M. It will do way more if it has great legs as you say yourself in the post.

I have it at 3.5 legs until I see the cinemascore. A+ isn't likely but if so then 4 is reasonable. 

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, Cap said:

I know I’m going to get shit for this, but eh, LFG.

 

We are a box office forum. We talk about Avatar excessively because it’s the biggest box office film of all time.  Most of the other places on The Internet TM do not. For the General Audience, this is a sequel to that cool movie from 12 years ago. To Nerd Culture, it’s the sequel to the movie they love to mock and meme. And James Cameron did most of his best work in the 1980’s, which is like asking Gen Z to marathon TCM. There isn’t a massive sleeping giant fandom out there ready to show up. 
 

Know why the MCU is so popular? Despite the “bad VFXs” and “stupid quips” and “bad action” and “bad scripts” and “amusement park vibes?” Because people **love** those characters. I would murder for Steve Rogers. 

 

Just look at Dr. Strange. They made Wanda the villain, and her Stans still showed up because it was Wanda! (And to take notes for their meta about how Marvel Is Evil and Hates Wanda). 

 

Which means, you HAVE to reintroduce the characters. Who are the blue people? Which one is Zoe Saldana? What was the plot to the first one?  Where were the BTS featurettes playing before EVERY movie during those commercials/info news stuff they run? Where was the “Welcome Back to Pandora” ABC special? 
 

Moreover, you need to sell me on the 3D. IronJimbo sent me a video when Cameron was talking about the steps they took to mitigate headaches and make the experience better. Why was that not IN THE ADS?!?

 

It wasn’t until last night I saw an ad that looked bad ass. Clear plot (the humans have returned and we need to go to our allies for help) and LOTS of action. I was like “Wow; that looks great. Maybe I should go—“

 

Why are we seeing that only on Thursday of Previews? Why was that not the second trailer? 

 

There is zero reason to have them mystery box Avatar. It’s it’s backfiring them. 

 

THAT SAID!!!

 

The ads have also been emphasizing seen it in a 3D PLF format. As Porthos said, there are not enough screens for everyone to do that opening weekend. There is still a lot of time for folks to go in December and January!! So it’s not like “oh no, it’s over, let’s play Nearer, My God, To Thee.”  It’s just a reason why this might open to lower than expected numbers. 
 

And when all else fails, blame the nor’easter and World Cup!

 

You might catch shit, but you shouldn't because you're right on literally every point, IMO.

 

(including the implied point about legs thanks to weather and sports and lack of competition)

 

Hell, if I were a mod*, I'd sticky the post and make it a Featured Comment, that's how good I think it is. 👍

* Private-ish in-joke between me and Cap. 😛

[wildphantom]

Maybe people really prioritised National Treasure: Edge of History this weekend?

 

A real event 

[Danhjpn]

1 minute ago, Vector Sigma said:

I have it at 3.5 legs until I see the cinemascore. A+ isn't likely but if so then 4 is reasonable. 

The first Avatar didn't get A+ cinemascore.

[Vector Sigma]

18 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

Disagree imo  It has whole Christmas season to dominate the screens. Nothing new in January either. 500M will happen easily. WOM is strong. 4x should be doable as a worst case scenario. 

I would hope but to be honest I think a few things are working against the movie. It's basically a family movie and there are still people who are hesitant to take their little ones during this covid outbreak. Pediatric hospitals are filling up, this is a really bad wave. The second thing is there is nothing during this pandemic that indicates this movie is gonna have normal Cameron legs. I truly believe Top Gun is an outlier. The majority of movies have steep drops. I don't think we're getting legs like a comic book movie, but 2009 style drops just aren't happening. 

[BluKyberCrystal]

Just now, Vector Sigma said:

I have it at 3.5 legs until I see the cinemascore. A+ isn't likely but if so then 4 is reasonable. 

It has such a clear runway, and it does have the draw of seeing it on the best screen possible. So even with an A- or somehow a B+ (that shouldn't be happening) 500m should be the floor. It's Christmas after all. Should be to 400m before the new year.

[Cap]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Hell, if I were a mod*, I'd sticky the post and make it a Featured Comment, that's how good I think it is. 👍

You heard it here, folks. He wants mod. @Shawn, mod skin him now. No take backs. 

[Jim Shorts]

10 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Jim! Nice to see you again. 😀

Kamusta na! It’s been a while. 😅

[Vector Sigma]

2 minutes ago, BluKyberCrystal said:

It has such a clear runway, and it does have the draw of seeing it on the best screen possible. So even with an A- or somehow a B+ (that shouldn't be happening) 500m should be the floor. It's Christmas after all. Should be to 400m before the new year.

If this gets an A- or B+ I'm calling the bomb squad. B+ would be catastrophic. We have to remember there's weird people that want this movie to fail so that they can meme it. I've never seen a movie with so many people cheering for its downfall. This needs great WOM to silence that criticism. I really believe this is getting an A though. 

[Cap]

 

 

[upriser7]

Lets say A2 slightly underperforms at box-office vs pre-release expectations and ends up at $1.5B-1.8B but if the WOM is very positive, that should set up things well for A3 right ? I'd expect A3 to open better than A2...also you won't have that 13 year gap for A3 like we had for A2 and very likely little impact of covid during end of 2024.

[Vector Sigma]

Just now, Vector Sigma said:

If this gets an A- or B+ I'm calling the bomb squad. B+ would be catastrophic, you could forget about 1 billion. We have to remember there's weird people that want this movie to fail so that they can meme it. I've never seen a movie with so many people cheering for its downfall. This needs great WOM to silence that criticism. I really believe this is getting an A though. 

 

[Vector Sigma]

Just now, upriser7 said:

Lets say A2 slightly underperforms at box-office vs pre-release expectations and ends up at $1.5B-1.8B but if the WOM is very positive, that should set up things well for A3 right ? I'd expect A3 to open better than A2...also you won't have that 13 year gap for A3 like we had for A2 and very likely little impact of covid during end of 2024.

1.8 billion would give Cameron a blank check for as many more films as he wants. They'll just write it off as China going through a covid wave. They'd be right, it would pass Endgame. I think this is The Lion King but I need another week to see what the drop looks like. 

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Cap said:

You heard it here, folks. He wants mod. @Shawn, mod skin him now. No take backs. 

 

"If" != "want to" last time I checked.  😘

 

[fabiopazzo2]

So theres a chance...

[Cmasterclay]

I just matched with a woman on Hinge and I asked her what she was doing this weekend. She said "I'm not seeing Avatar: The Way of Water, that's for sure. The Rotten Tomatoes score just dipped below 80%, prices for PLFs are too high given inflation, the movie is 3 hours and 10 minutes long, and the original movie never made a cultural impact despite the box office total." Seems bad.