A2 WEEKEND THREAD | 134.1M DOM OW | Thurs 17m / Fri 36m / Sat 45m / Sun 36m

[XXR vs XXR]

Current ATWOW Market Predictions (USD)

 

DOM: 550 - 600 

China: 120 - 165

SK: 85 - 100 

UK: 75 - 90

France: 60 - 75

India: 55 - 70 

Mexico: 55 - 65

Germany: 45 - 60

Australia: 40 - 55

Brazil: 40 - 55

Japan: 35 - 50

Italy: 25 - 35

Spain: 25 - 35

Other: 425 - 550 

 

Total: 1635 - 2005 

 

[Nero]

4 minutes ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

When 😭😭

C'mon now 👀

[filmnerdjamie]

All for Cameron eating humble pie and I love me a good meltdown.

 

But it would foolish to jump the gun this quickly. Remember how Avatar dropped 2% in it's second weekend?!

[THUNDER BIRD]

2 minutes ago, Nero said:

C'mon now 👀

No seriously, when.

[JohnnyGossamer]

14 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Aquaman opened to about half of what Avatar's going to make though, not exactly apples to apples.

Oh, I agree. I'm not sure about a 5x + multiplier but I'd expect a 4x+ to be locked in. I can't imagine WoM isn't at least good with most of it being you gotta see it on a premium screen if possible. I think it's locked for #2 DOM and #1 WW for 2022. But, again, as many have said, it's different because we're so accustomed to most blockbusters being more frontloaded than ever. I don't think it's irrational to expect a movie like A2 that's released during the Christmas holiday and that's biggest sell is the experience to have a multiplier in 4 to 5 range. Now, anything above that would be a little surprising. WoM would have to be beyond anything I expect for that to happen. This movie has all premium screens essentially to itself for what... 8+ weeks? Or, is it 10+ weeks? Should bode really well for legs if WoM on the experience is at least good or very good even if it's not great.

[Nero]

Just now, THUNDER BIRD said:

No seriously, when.

In avatar thread reee

[wildphantom]

It’s still got a chance at beating Suicide Squad’s opening weekend. Stay calm people. 
 

[CJohn]

Fucking China lmao. That place is dead.

[filmlover]

Honestly a really strong opening day and the fact it's so long means more people are likely to see it today and tomorrow (the theater I'm seeing it at later today is already filling up every single show). Excited to see where it goes from here.

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[Grebacio]

 

 

[Nero]

2 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

All for Cameron eating humble pie and I love me a good meltdown.

 

But it would foolish to jump the gun this quickly. Remember how Avatar dropped 2% in it's second weekend?!

Next weekend is Christmas Eve so it's not gonna drop 2% 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Oh, I agree. I'm not sure about a 5x + multiplier but I'd expect a 4x+ to be locked in. I can't imagine WoM isn't at least good with most of it being you gotta see it on a premium screen if possible. I think it's locked for #2 DOM and #1 WW for 2022. But, again, as many have said, it's different because we're so accustomed to most blockbusters being more frontloaded than ever. I don't think it's irrational to expect a movie like A2 that's released during the Christmas holiday and that's biggest sell is the experience to have a multiplier in 4 to 5 range. Now, anything above that would be a little surprising. WoM would have to be beyond anything I expect for that to happen. This movie has all premium screens essentially to itself for what... 8+ weeks? Or, is it 10+ weeks? Should bode really well for legs if WoM on the experience is at least good or very good even if it's not great.

The next movie set for PLF screens is not until Knock at the Cabin on February 3 so 8 weeks it is.

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[vafrow]

6 minutes ago, BluKyberCrystal said:

What's the range for the OW with these numbers

 

Deadline has a range of $130-150M. 

 

I think we can bank on a stronger Saturday, driven by people having more ability to make the time commitment. 

 

I have $147.5M in the prediction contest, and I'm feeling like I over shot by about $5M right now, but, this film likely has a few surprises in store.

[THUNDER BIRD]

3 minutes ago, Nero said:

In avatar thread reee

I must've said it in jest lol.

 

But it was a possibility of China was at full strength.

 

But seeing USA numbers, maybe not even then.

[kayumanggi]

From Deadline:

 

"Engine’s PostTrak reports that 41% of all moviegoers are buying tickets day of, meaning a lot of walk-up business."

 

Let's see how that translates in the coming weeks.

[Borobudur]

$36m true Friday after all? This is saddening, barely topping TGM and JWD.  

 

And the holdovers are holding good, meaning A2 hardly impact them.  

 

 

Edited December 17, 2022 by Borobudur

[filmnerdjamie]

1 minute ago, Nero said:

Next weekend is Christmas Eve so it's not gonna drop 2% 

 

No. But again remember how many blamed the snowstorms in the northeast for Avatar's $77M opening?

 

Again. Too early to make a call either way, and I say this as one who never thought The Way of Water would topple Top Gun: Maverick, domestically at the very least. Still don't.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Just now, filmnerdjamie said:

All for Cameron eating humble pie and I love me a good meltdown.

 

But it would foolish to jump the gun this quickly. Remember how Avatar dropped 2% in it's second weekend?!

I think that's not happening but I could see a run similar to Rogue One with A2 having better legs as SW is a pretty frontloaded franchise. I believe R1 was the last blockbuster movie to open with this same calendar configuration, no? R1 did especially impressive number 12/26 through 12/30 that year. I think 12/26 was its second or third highest day of its entire run. I will say with the OW DOM it's going to have, I think it's pretty unlikely that has the type legs needed to pass TGM DOM. I still, right now, think 550M+ DOM is happening.