Weekdays Thread (12/19-22) | Avatar: The Way of 14.5 | Mon 16.2, Tue 18.3, Wed 14.3, Thu 14.5| Puss 3.2 OD | Check In For Your Hourly Weather Update

[Cheddar Please]

Actual numbers looking pretty good for Avatar ngl, but I got to respect the racket of the mod team, we're at 42 pages!

Edited December 21, 2022 by Cheddar Please

[BluKyberCrystal]

2 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

CJohn Saga? is that what comes after the skywalker saga?

Nah, that's the Resurrection of Andor arc.

[Lion Roar]

4 minutes ago, XXR Also in Boots said:

 

Endgame from presales start through first Monday was the best time ever on BOT. Every country was exploding. Second best time was TFA first 3 weeks.

That was when I finally stopped lurking and created an account. I found this site during BP's OW, and when the Endgame presale party started I just couldn't pass that by. Such fun times.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Ok legit take on the number, I'd say it's good (definitely better than the totally-real predictions we were throwing around earlier). All eyes now on Wed/Mon drop, which tends to be the most predictive part of the weekday for legs. 

[Legion Again]

It’s decent. SH2 was +5% tues when discounts were weaker, RO flat with more spillover/much higher mon admits, but it’s hard to provide real analysis without a clear sense of how much of usual discount locations had them kept vs cancelled 

[XXR & Friends]

1 minute ago, Lion Roar said:

That was when I finally stopped lurking and created an account. I found this site during BP's OW, and when the Endgame presale party started I just couldn't pass that by. Such fun times.

 

Endgame was just special because the film delivered on the hype. The massive presales wouldn't have been as great without news coming out of China of a 9.3 Douban score or South Korea's 99% CGV. Then of course DOM going $100M over the record and RTH first coming in on Friday with a, "You know, I've been thinking 148-153 but lets see how it goes."

Seeing "148-153" and knowing it represents a 30ish hour number is an insane feeling for a box office nerd. 

 

[JustLurking]

Why does the title say 17 instead of 13? Did the mods typo?

[Brainbug]

A TLJ discussion, the mods team giving us false numbers (article from Deadline actually says 14M Tuesday), @MikeQ instigating most of this, @Porthos having to clear things down, @Menor Reborn beeing (un)trustworthy and @Eric in Boots abusing his mod powers while @Ozymandias replaces Charlie and Rth.

 

Its like this thread mutated to a complete summary of BOT history, while showing some of the members' opposite side??

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, JustLurking said:

Why does the title say 17 instead of 13? Did the mods typo?

 

 

Spoiler

The real number is

Spoiler

17

Spoiler

 

 

 

[Mulder]

So it finally caught up to one of Rogue One's numbers. Decent number. Still no sign of groundbreaking legs yet though.

[M37]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

Even now, studios still reflexively shy away from some months for no good reason (at least IMO).  Take Labor Day Weekend.  Even after films have proved that September and October can have blockbusters succeed just as much as other months, they're shying away from Labor Day Weekend.  January is still viewed as a "dump month.

 

It wasn't that long ago that February was lumped in with January as  a "dump month".  Now the idea of Feb being a "dump month" is rightly seen as ridiculous.

Fwiw, there is some rationale underlying studios shying away from the Jan/Feb and Sept/Oct release widows. If you look across the entertainment & leisure industry, there is a natural slump in those periods, as people shift from the free time (and freer spending) of the holiday or summer, and back to the Mon-Fri grind (and often tightening the budget). Plus in the winter months you have cold weather (and often storms) and early sunsets keeping people home, and in the Fall having to compete with NFL, college football, and Spooky Season events
 

That’s not to say a film can’t be successful, but the ceiling is naturally lower. Shang-Chi for example, with really good WOM and basically no competition in September, legged out to 2.04x its first week (albeit LD inflated), basically the same as Black Adam (2.0x and counting) and below Batman (2.14x) in March  

 

President’s Day/Valentine’s Day is the end of the winter slump (that weekend in particular has been the launching point of some very good runs), and the first week of November in the fall 

 

 

Edited December 21, 2022 by M37

[THUNDER BIRD]

11 hours ago, LinksterAC said:

 

Didn't Cameron himself point to this having to clear $2B to be profitable?

If a twitter anti Cameron warrior says such thing then it is acceptable, cause they have no idea about anything.

 

But please not this coming from someone on BOX OFFICE THEORY.

[Porthos]

Just now, M37 said:

Fwiw, there is some rationale underlying studios shying away from the Dec/Jan and Sept/Oct release widows. If you look across the entertainment & leisure industry, there is a natural slump in those periods, as people shift from the free time (and freer spending) of the holiday or summer, and back to the Mon-Fri grind (and often tightening the budget). Plus in the winter months you have cold weather (and often storms) and early sunsets keeping people home, and in the Fall having to compete with NFL, college football, and Spooky Season events
 

That’s not to say a film can’t be successful, but the ceiling is naturally lower. Shang-Chi for example, with really good WOM and basically no competition in September, legged out to 2.04x its first week (albeit LD inflated), basically the same as Black Adam (2.0x and counting) and below Batman (2.14x) in March  

 

President’s Day/Valentine’s Day is the end of the winter slump (that weekend in particular has been the launching point of some very good runs), and the first week of November in the fall 

 

 

 

Oh, I agree there is some rationale.  But this gets me back to this:

 

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

Studios would tie themselves into logical knots searching for a "perfect" time for a type of movie without realizing that getting more of a maybe slightly lesser pie was better than everyone going after the same time period in, say, the summer.

 

Like, okay, Sep/Oct and Jan have their problems, and they're real ones as you note.  But isn't it better to try to stake a claim in an empty month than duke it out with other films if there are too many of them already there?  Give yourself some breathing room to capture what's there.  Just seems to me that too many films would rather roll the dice and think they'll be the victor as they all beat each other up rather than one of them try to stake a claim in another time period.

 

Also something of a chicken and egg situation, as someone has to go first and be brave enough to test the waters.  Even Shang-Chi is probably a problematic example simply due to being released at the tail end of the Delta Wave.

 

Still, good points as usual. 

[Cap]

16 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

A TLJ discussion, the mods team giving us false numbers (article from Deadline actually says 14M Tuesday), @MikeQ instigating most of this, @Porthos having to clear things down, @Menor Reborn beeing (un)trustworthy and @Eric in Boots abusing his mod powers while @Ozymandias replaces Charlie and Rth.

 

Its like this thread mutated to a complete summary of BOT history, while showing some of the members' opposite side??

Oh no. It’s always been this way. We just lost the path for a bit:

 

 

 

[JustLurking]

18 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

The real number is

  Reveal hidden contents

17

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

 

Ah, 17 it is then.

 

[Tokugennumataka]

When does the storm peak?

[Cap]

Just now, Tokugennumataka said:

When does the storm peak?

Never. It’s gonna storm until Quantumania. 

[Cap]

[JustLurking]

2 minutes ago, Cap said:

Never. It’s gonna storm until Quantumania. 

Looks like the 2012 predictions were off by a decade

[cooldude97]

still no storm where im at