Jake Gittes Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 (edited) 6 hours ago, CoolioD1 said: Yeah what I said months ago that I can imagine it being Scorsese vs Nolan in best director while some small heartwarming movie sneaks away with best picture still seems like the likeliest scenario to me. Though it seems like people are settling on that small movie being The Holdovers and I dunno but something seems off about that pick to me. Movie looks dated. A Palme winner isn't small exactly but I could see Anatomy of a Fall sneaking up on it, paving the path by winning original screenplay and actress. It's not just a critical darling but supposedly entertaining/crowdpleasing too, and Neon knows how to push a movie. Or maybe this is gonna be the year where the curveball is the absence of one, and Oppy is finally that one megahit that unites enough people behind it. Edited July 25, 2023 by Jake Gittes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 2 hours ago, Jake Gittes said: A Palme winner isn't small exactly but I could see Anatomy of a Fall sneaking up on it, paving the path by winning original screenplay and actress. It's not just a critical darling but supposedly entertaining/crowdpleasing too, and Neon knows how to push a movie. Or maybe this is gonna be the year where the curveball is the absence of one, and Oppy is finally that one megahit that unites enough people behind it. I've seen Anatomy of a Fall and it's not winning under any circumstance lol. Great film but a 2.5 hour heavy courtroom drama with "unlikable" characters... Good luck Past Lives was my early choice since it's an acclaimed consensus film but I don't know if it'll have the juice to sustain. The box office was fine and it'll probably struggle among guilds. I don't really buy Scorsese winning since the early frontrunner rarely does and being a 3.5 western will hinder appeal. It'll really need the Native American narrative to take off but I think the film will have issues with passion and split votes with Oppenheimer. At this rate, Nolan has to be considered the frontrunner for director... but despite the box office and acclaim, this type of film doesn't win BP anymore (maybe 10 years ago). It's not going to win SAG and I don't think it's a Screenplay winner either. Oppenheimer lacks an emotional undercurrent and still might be too narratively challenging to survive that ballot I truly wouldn't rule out Barbie winning as a populist pick (can win SAG Ensemble + Greta Gerwig narrative + original and high-concept studio film with a preachy, important message). Don't buy Color Purple whatsoever. Heard too many mixed reactions from the test screenings and the trailer was giving Greatest Showman. Without that cast promoting it, RIP. Holdovers probably wins TIFF but that thing is too middlebrow and too old-fashioned without any serious message or rooting factor. It's going to make no money at the box office, either Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingonaName Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 4 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said: Heard too many mixed reactions from the test screenings and the trailer was giving Greatest Showman. Greatest showman slander. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingonaName Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 1. Killers 2. Oppenheimer 3. Zone of Interest 4. Holdovers 5. Dune 2 6. Barbie 7. Air 8. Past lives 9. How do you live? 10. Horizon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted July 25, 2023 Author Share Posted July 25, 2023 7 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said: I truly wouldn't rule out Barbie winning as a populist pick (can win SAG Ensemble + Greta Gerwig narrative + original and high-concept studio film with a preachy, important message). SAG Winner Dua Lipa let's go! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted July 25, 2023 Author Share Posted July 25, 2023 Also, the Venice lineup is now revealed. A lot of confirmations that we already knew about but the strike (and the uncertainty over whether the stars can attend or not) didn't seem to have too much of an effect on the lineup. They really want to salvage awards season this year as much as they can. The ones to keep an eye out for: Ferrari The Killer Maestro Poor Things Priscilla Venice 2023 Bradley Cooper, Sofia Coppola, Woody Allen, Roman Polanski – The Hollywood Reporter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingonaName Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, filmlover said: Also, the Venice lineup is now revealed. A lot of confirmations that we already knew about but the strike (and the uncertainty over whether the stars can attend or not) didn't seem to have too much of an effect on the lineup. They really want to salvage awards season this year as much as they can. The ones to keep an eye out for: Ferrari The Killer Maestro Poor Things Priscilla Venice 2023 Bradley Cooper, Sofia Coppola, Woody Allen, Roman Polanski – The Hollywood Reporter No Horizon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 (edited) No Saltburn at Venice is a hmmmm moment. Maybe Telluride? Drive Away Dolls isn't a real Oscar contender but given the Coen/Venice connections it not going there screams delay. Otherwise as expected except Ava's Caste movie is retitled and going to Venice. Also thought Iron Claw would show up at Toronto/Telluride, it's been done for ages. Based on Toronto the big Telluride world premiers are Holdovers (still in my top 5), Rustin (we shall see), and Ethan Hawke directing his daughter (nepotism). Also a weird movie starring two of my faves, Jesse Buckley and Riz Ahmed (plus JAW!) I've heard the Burial is good and there's naturally a ton of goodwill for Jamie Foxx this year. I have him as my fifth nominee in Best Actor as a slightly hot take. Edited July 25, 2023 by Cmasterclay Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted July 25, 2023 Author Share Posted July 25, 2023 Poor Things is now opening in December instead. Emma coming for Lead Oscar #2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted July 25, 2023 Author Share Posted July 25, 2023 (edited) Netflix posted everything coming to Venice and it appears it's Mulligan instead of BCoop getting first billing on Maestro? Also heavy emphasis on how it's a "love story" in the logline. Pretty obvious she's going Lead and won't be frauded into Supporting like she was for She Said last year. Netflix Movie Premieres at the Venice Film Festival: Here's Every Netflix Movie Coming to Venice - Netflix Tudum Edited July 25, 2023 by filmlover Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted July 26, 2023 Author Share Posted July 26, 2023 Saltburn has been dated for limited Thanksgiving weekend followed by expansion after that. Possibly Telluride/NYFF/AFI here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 Some early mid-year predictions. I am assuming Dune: Part 2 gets delayed to 2024 Best Picture 1. Oppenheimer 2. Killers of the Flower Moon 3. Past Lives 4. The Zone of Interest 5. Barbie 6. Maestro 7. The Color Purple 8. Anatomy of a Fall 9. Saltburn 10. Poor Things Alts: The Holdovers, Nightbitch, Ferrari Best Director 1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer 2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon 3. Celine Song, Past Lives 4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie 5. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn Alt: Blitz Bazarule, The Color Purple Best Actor 1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer 2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon 3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro 4. Adam Driver, Ferrari 5. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love Alt: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers Best Actress 1. Greta Lee, Past Lives 2. Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall 3. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple 4. Emma Stone, Poor Things 5. Margot Robbie, Barbie Alt: Carey Mulligan, Maestro Best Supporting Actor 1. Robert Downey Jr, Oppenhheimer 2. Robert DeNiro, Killers of the Flower Moon 3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie 4. John Margaro, Past Lives 5. Teo Yoo, Past Lives Alt: Willem Dafoe, Poor Things Best Supporting Actress 1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon 2. Viola Davis, Air 3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer 4. America Ferrera, Dumb Money 5. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn Alt: Taraji B. Henson, The Color Purple Original Screenplay 1. Past Lives 2. Saltburn 3. Maestro 4. The Holdovers 5. Anatomy of a Fall Alt: Poor Things Best Adapted Screenplay 1. Oppenheimer 2. Killers of the Flower Moon 3. The Zone of Interest 4. Barbie 5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Alt: Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret Animated Feature 1. The Boy and the Heron 2. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse 3. Nimona 4. Wish 5. The Super Mario Bros Movie Alt: Elemental Cinematography 1. Oppenheimer 2. Past Lives 3. Killers of the Flower Moon 4. The Zone of Interest 5. Maestro Alt: Poor Things Editing 1. Oppenheimer 2. Killers of the Flower Moon 3. Maestro 4. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse 5. Barbie Alt: Air Production Design 1. Oppenheimer 2. Barbie 3. Killers of the Flower Moon 4. Napoleon 5. Asteroid City Alt: The Color Purple Costume Design 1. Barbie 2. Killers of the Flower Moon 3. Oppenheimer 4. Maestro 5. Napoleon Alt: Wonka Makeup and Hairstyling 1. Maestro 2. Barbie 3. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes 4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 5. Wonka Alt: Priscilla Sound 1. Oppenheimer 2. Maestro 3. Killers of the Flower Moon 4. The Zone of Interest 5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Alt: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 Visual Effects 1. Oppenheimer 2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 3. Mission Impossible Dead Reckoning - Part 1 4. The Little Mermaid 5. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alt: Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Score 1. Oppenheimer 2. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse 3. Elemental 4. Asteroid City 5. Past Lives Alt: Priscilla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dark Alfred Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 I'd say Colman Domingo for Rustin is a lock. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 PICTURE: Killers of the Flower Moon Oppenheimer Past Lives Barbie The Holdovers Zone of Interest Saltburn Air Anatomy of a Fall Maestro ALT: How Do You Live DIRECTOR: Nolan, Oppenheimer Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon Gerwig, Barbie Glazer, Zone of Interest Song, Past Lives ALT: Triet, Anatomy of a Fall ACTOR: Cooper, Maestro DiCaprio, Killers of Flower Moon Murphy, Oppenheimer Giamatti, The Holdovers Domingo, Rustin ALT: Keoghan, Saltburn ACTRESS: Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon Robbie, Barbie Mulligan, Maestro Huller, Anatomy of a Fall Lee, Past Lives ALT: Bening, Nyad SUPPORTING ACTOR: Gosling, Barbie Downey Jr, Oppenheimer DeNiro, Killers of the Flower Moon Magaro, Past Lives Howerton, Blackberry ALT: Dafoe, Poor Things SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Blunt, Oppenheimer Davis, Air Pike, Saltburn Moore, May December Randolph, The Holdovers ALT: Ferrera, Barbie ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Past Lives The Holdovers Saltburn Air Anatomy of a Fall ALT: May December ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Barbie Killers of the Flower Moon Oppenheimer The Killer ALT: Poor Things 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudalb Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 And, of course, some film none of us is thinking about will end up being a strong contender, and one of those everybody is naming will prove to be a dissapointment. But, realistically, unless Flowers is a total bust, it will be a Nolan Scorsese duel. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 3 hours ago, dudalb said: it will be a Nolan Scorsese duel. nah Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joel M Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 Barbie should absolutely go for original screenplay and avoid the heavy competition. It's not based on any real source material, it's not a sequel and just uses the names of the toys. The likes of Milk, King's Speech and Green Book won original screenplay by adapting real peoples lives without using a written biography as a source. Barbie is certainly more original than them. This shouldn't even be a conversation. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kvikk Lunsj Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 (edited) Best picture *The Holdovers Anatomy of a Fall Barbie Bob Marley: One Love The Color Purple Dune part 2 Killers of the Flower moon Lee Past lives Saltburn Director * Martin Scorses Blitz Bazawule Celine Song Greta Gerwig Jonathan Glazer Actress * Fantasia Barrino-The color Purple Kate Winslet- Lee Greta Lee- Past Lives Margot Robbie- Barbie Phoebe Dynevor- Fair Play Actor *kinsgley Ben-Adir- Bob Marley: One Love Bradley Cooper- Maestro Coleman Domingo- Rustin Leonard DiCaprio- Killers of the Flower Moon Paul Giamatti- Holdovers Supporting Actress *Lily Gladstone- Killers of the Flower moon America Ferra-Dumb Money Da’Vine Joy Randolph- The Holdovers Tariji P. Henderson- The Color Purple Viola Davis- Air Supporting Actor *William Dafoe- Poor Things Brian Tyee Henry- Fling Strong Charles Melton- May December Robert DeNiro Killers of the Flower Moon Ryan Gosling-Barbie Screenplay original *Past Lives Barbie Holdovers Rustin Saltburn Adapt *Lee Are You there God its Me Margot The Color Purple Dune part 2 Killers of the Flower Moon Cinematography *Lee Dune part 2 The Killer Killers of the Flower Moon Zone of Interest Editing *zone of interest The Color Purple Dune part 2 Killers of the flower moon Saltburn Production *Barbie The Color Purple Dune part 2 Killers of the Flower Moon Napoleon Hairy style and Makeup *Maestro Barbie Dune 2 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 Priscilla Costume Design *Barbie Dune part 2 Killers of the Flower Moon The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snake Wonka Sound *Ferrari Dune part 2 Maestro Mission Impossible Dead Reckoning part 1 Napoleon Visual Effects *Dune Part 2 Guardians of the Galaxy vol 2 Indiana Jones & the dial of Destiny The Marvels Transformers Rise of Beast Animated *Across the Spider Verse The Boy and Heron Nimoa Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Wish Score *Priscilla Across the Spider Verse Dune part 2 Elemental The Killer international * anatomy of a fall zone of interest the boy and heron Edited July 30, 2023 by Kvikk Lunsj 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted July 31, 2023 Author Share Posted July 31, 2023 lol there goes that dream. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoxOfficeFangrl Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 20 hours ago, filmlover said: lol there goes that dream. He was going to go, but the news about his ex and Tom Brady has him down bad... /s But seriously, people are out there screaming, "Scab!" at low-level YouTube movie review channels and podcasters. They're mad about A24 waivers. The A-list lead of a movie promoting it only "as a director/producer" was going to be a tough line to walk. Maybe SAG will work something out with all the actor/directors in the coming weeks, or those film festivals will have signed on a bunch of iffy actor-auteur projects for nothing. People view how he was with A Star Is Born as a sign of general awards thirstiness in him, but I don't know if I totally agree. He was in two Best Picture contenders a couple of years ago, hit some precursors for both roles, but was not going full throttle trying for the dual acting nomination, like a truly hungry star would. It was still kind of a Covid awards season, but Andrew Garfield was in a similar position (with buzz for both Tick Tick Boom & The Eyes of Tammy Faye) and he was everywhere that year. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
