Best Picture Predictions: 2023

[filmlover]

13 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I hope Air get a BP nom. While its unlikely to win it deserves a nom for sure. 

I think Air shouldn't have much difficulty tbh. Amazon will push it, it did well at the box office for its type of movie. Damon should be in strong consideration since he's likely to be cited at the end of the year for Air and Oppenheimer (possibly Drive-Away Dolls as well if it doesn't end up punted to 2024 due to strike complications).

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

22 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I think Air shouldn't have much difficulty tbh. Amazon will push it, it did well at the box office for its type of movie. Damon should be in strong consideration since he's likely to be cited at the end of the year for Air and Oppenheimer (possibly Drive-Away Dolls as well if it doesn't end up punted to 2024 due to strike complications).

He's a cameo in Drive Away Dolls

[filmlover]

TIFF lineup announced (as expected, not overwhelming starry given the strike but still some titles from the majors and of course some big titles like Lee and Poolman that don't have distributors yet):

 

Toronto Film Festival 2023 Lineup - Variety

 

From the majors:

 

Dumb Money

The Holdovers

Next Goal Wins

Pain Hustlers

Rustin

[ringedmortality]

Just now, filmlover said:

TIFF lineup announced (as expected, not overwhelming starry given the strike but still some titles from the majors and of course some big titles like Lee and Poolman that don't have distributors yet):

 

Toronto Film Festival 2023 Lineup - Variety

 

From the majors:

 

Dumb Money

The Holdovers

Next Goal Wins

Pain Hustlers

Rustin

 

Holdovers is clearly winning People's Choice

[Kalo]

Oppenheimer should be a serious contender imo

[Kalo]

17 hours ago, The Dark Alfred said:

It might be best for DUNE to move to 20124 in terms of its Oscar chances. At this point it's KILLER vs OPPENHEIMER. Of course a lot can change the next few months, but it would be awesome to have Scorsese vs Nolan. So far the locks for BP are imho:

 

KILLER OF THE FLOWER MOON

OPPENHEIMER

BARBIE

PAST LIVES

 

18,101 years?!!!! 💀☠️ 

 

Sorry I couldn't resist. seriously though, Dune will be fine in 2023. everyone loved Dune and will see it anyways. I don't wan't my most anticipated film getting delayed again. 

[The Dark Alfred]

I don't think it has any chance against OP and KILLER MOON. Of course, I would love to see it this year as well. I mean merely from its Oscar chances point of view.

[Kalo]

6 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

I don't think it has any chance against OP and KILLER MOON. Of course, I would love to see it this year as well. I mean merely from its Oscar chances point of view.

 

Ah, Yeah It probably won't WIN. I do think it will get nominated though. I really don't care about weather or not it is though the Oscars are off on about 60% of movies anyways. I just want to see it in November. there is nothing else I am even excited for after that really.

[titanic2187]

Oppenheimer is wining this one. Nolan is hitting a perfect lottery. The current international politics make the movie even more relevant. The only job that Universal has is to make sure the movie doesn't peak this early and attracting backlash. 

[The Dark Alfred]

I wouldn't count out THE HOLDOVERS. Could be a feel-good pick of the year, even more so than BARBIE.

[filmlover]

‘Ferrari’ To ‘Dumb Money’: How Are The Fall Festivals Shaping Up? – Deadline

 

Big takeaways for Venice (announcing tomorrow):

 

1. Maestro, Poor Things, and Priscilla are all tipped to premiere there.

2. Because it's A24 (one of the few studios that have been successful in moving ahead on their productions during the strike so far), the cast for Priscilla might be getting a waiver to make an appearance.

[filmlover]

The fact Maestro is looking likely to premiere there (and one has to assume NYFF as well, you could hardly get more NYC than Leonard Bernstein) makes me think BCoop was successful in getting a waiver to tout the movie on the condition that no one else that acted in it is at the premieres as long as the strike is ongoing. Only time will tell if the situation will create a headache for reporters as to what questions they can and can't ask him during the press conference.

Edited July 24, 2023 by filmlover

[Kvikk Lunsj]

Best picture winner runtime since 2000

Everything everywhere 140 minutes 

coda 112 minutes 

108 minutes 

Parasite 133 minutes 

Green book 130 minutes 

shape of water 123 minutes 

moon light 111 minutes 

Spotlight 129 minutes 

Birdman 120 minutes 

12 years a slave 134 minutes 

Argo 120 minutes 

artist 100 minutes 

king’s speech 118 minutes 

the hurt locker 131 minutes 

Slumdog millionaire 120 minutes 

No country 122 minutes 

The departed 151 minutes 

Crash 112 minutes 

Million dollar baby 132 minutes 

return of the king 201 minutes 

Chicago 113 minutes 

a beautiful mind 135 minutes 

gladiator 155 minutes 

the academy hasn’t been going for long times 

 

1 movie over 3 hours 

3 movies of 2.5 hours.  
most movies in 110 minutes to 135 minutes 

In the 90s 3 movies with a 3 hour runtime won best picture and Braveheart runtime is just short of 3 hours by 2 minutes. 
 

I don’t think a long runtime movie is winning best picture 

 

recently the academy likes a positive emotional ending.  
 

I think the Holdovers is the best bet right now.  

Edited July 24, 2023 by Kvikk Lunsj

[CoolioD1]

Yeah what I said months ago that I can imagine it being Scorsese vs Nolan in best director while some small heartwarming movie sneaks away with best picture still seems like the likeliest scenario to me. Though it seems like people are settling on that small movie being The Holdovers and I dunno but something seems off about that pick to me. Movie looks dated.

[Kvikk Lunsj]

Also worth noting since Slumdog. Ben Afflect is the only director to win best picture and not had a previous movie nominated for best picture 

[CoolioD1]

Also I remember in 2019 early in that awards season the hype was that it was gonna be a Scorsese vs Tarantino title fight and by the time the Oscars actually came around neither of them were in it to win it at all really. Ended up Bong vs Mendes.

[ringedmortality]

21 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

Also I remember in 2019 early in that awards season the hype was that it was gonna be a Scorsese vs Tarantino title fight and by the time the Oscars actually came around neither of them were in it to win it at all really. Ended up Bong vs Mendes.

That’s cause the Globes gave it to Mendes.  Is there even a latebreaker like 1917 this year? 
 

Color Purple I guess (lol)

[The Dark Alfred]

If it's actually coming out. Hopefully the strike is over by December.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

Of course, the WB strategists would want to get away from this year's "serious" contenders in Adapted Screenplay, but will the Academy see Barbie as "original"?

 

Sometimes AMPAS rulings can be more about vibes than anything else, it seems:

 

In the past, the WGA has classified works such as “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” “Moonlight” and “Whiplash” as original works. However, the Academy felt the adapted category was the more appropriate route for all three. Even presumed adapted works such as “Syriana” by Stephen Gaghan, which the WGA and the filmmakers said was loosely based on the Robert Baer 20023 memoir “See No Evil,” was kicked to the opposite category.

[The Dark Alfred]

They should absolutely go for original. OP and KILLER OF THE FLOWER MOON will be in adapted.