Best Picture Predictions: 2023

[Ezen Baklattan]

7 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

New predictions:

 

1. Oppenheimer

2. Killers of the Flower Moon

3. Dune: Part Two

4. The Holdovers

5. Saltburn

6. The Killer

7. The Zone of Interest

8. Poor Things

9. Past Lives

10. Anatomy of a Fall

 

Director:

 

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

4. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

5. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn

 

Actor:

 

1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

2. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn

3. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

5. Michael Fassbender, The Killer

 

Actress:

 

1. Emma Stone, Poor Things

2. Natalie Portman, May December

3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

4. Greta Lee, Past Lives

5. Zendaya, Challengers

 

Supporting Actor:

 

1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

2. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things

3. Matt Damon, Oppenheimer

4. Jacob Elordi, Saltburn

5. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon

 

Supporting Actress:

 

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

2. Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

3. Julianne Moore, May December

4. Tilda Swinton, The Killer

5. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

 

Original Screenplay:

 

1. The Holdovers

2. Saltburn

3. Past Lives

4. Anatomy of a Fall

5. Asteroid City

 

Adapted Screenplay:

 

1. Killers of the Flower Moon

2. Oppenheimer

3. The Zone of Interest

4. Dune: Part Two

5. The Killer

 

 

No Color Purple??

[WrathOfHan]

1 hour ago, Ezen Baklattan said:

No Color Purple??

After that trailer? No. I'll believe it when people see it.

[LegionWrex]

First major predictions for the top 6 categories of the year, will likely change as we go forward:

 

Picture

Air

Barbie

The Color Purple

Dune: Part Two

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

Saltburn

The Zone of Interest

 

Alts: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Anatomy of a Fall, Poor Things, How Do You Live?

 

Director

Celine Song - Past Lives

Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer

Denis Villeneuve - Dune: Part Two

Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest

Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon

 

Actor

Bradley Cooper - Maestro

Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer

Kingsley Ben-Adir - Bob Marley: One Love

Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon

Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers

 

Actress

Fantasia Barrino - The Color Purple

Greta Lee - Past Lives

Margot Robbie - Barbie

Natalie Portman - May December

Sandra Huller - Anatomy of a Fall

 

Supporting Actor

Ben Affleck - Air

John Magaro - Past Lives

Robert de Niro - Killers of the Flower Moon

Ryan Gosling - Barbie

Teo Yoo - Past Lives

 

Supporting Actress

Da'Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers

Danielle Brooks - The Color Purple

Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon

Rosamund Pike - Saltburn

Viola Davis - Air

[ringedmortality]

11 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

After that trailer? No. I'll believe it when people see it.

 

People are gonna stan that all year long despite it looking really really bad.

[35MM-18]

1. The Bikeriders (20th Century)
2. The Color Purple (WB)
3. Dune: Part Two (WB)
4. How Do You Live? (GKIDS) 
5. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple/Paramount)
6. Maestro (Netflix)
7. Oppenheimer (Universal)
8. Past Lives (A24)
9. Saltburn (Amazon)
10. The Zone of Interest (A24)

Not really feeling it for The Holdovers right now outside of Original Screenplay, but that might change as the race shapes up. 

[filmlover]

We need The Color Purple to be a smash to ensure that Taraji's moment has arrived.

 

1 hour ago, 35MM-18 said:

1. The Bikeriders (20th Century)

Is there any true confirmation yet that this is coming out this year yet? The lack of a release date announcement from Disney still leads me to believe there's a chance this might end up in 2024 as strike insurance.

[ringedmortality]

Just now, filmlover said:

Is there any true confirmation yet that this is coming out this year yet? The lack of a release date announcement from Disney still leads me to believe there's a chance this might end up in 2024 as strike insurance.

 

It's probably coming out this year, but it's definitely not gonna be a big oscar thing.

[filmlover]

A bit "oops sorry" with the timing of this but hey, happy to see she'll have one since who knows if she'll ever get the chance again (it already took nearly 30 years after her first nomination to secure her second).

 

 

[Yojimbo]

On 6/25/2023 at 12:07 PM, filmlover said:

We need The Color Purple to be a smash to ensure that Taraji's moment has arrived.

 

Is there any true confirmation yet that this is coming out this year yet? The lack of a release date announcement from Disney still leads me to believe there's a chance this might end up in 2024 as strike insurance.

Unless it's bad, it would at least appear in some festivals I presume as it doesn't sound like a big commercial flare? Cannes 2024? He did do Berlin for Midnight Special too if I am remembering it right, so that could be a possibility, but Cannes sound likely.

[filmlover]

 

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

On 6/28/2023 at 8:03 PM, filmlover said:

 

They've also let in Robert Davi, former 1980s Bond villain and recent director of My Son Hunter, last year's Brietbart film which also featured Gina Carano as a Secret Service agent who gets her hair sniffed. I remember reading that it secretly screened to several Hollywood VIPs and got a standing ovation. Totally dismissed the report last year but I guess that was true, lol.

[CoolioD1]

1. Killers of the Flower Moon

2. Oppenheimer

3. Past Lives

4. Dune 2

5. Color Purple

6. The Killer

7. Next Goal Wins

8. Anatomy of a Fall

9. The Zone of Interest

10. The Holdovers

 

Best Director

1. Martin Scorsese

2. Christopher Nolan

3. Celine Song

4. Jonathan Glazer

5. Justine Triet

 

Best Actor

1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

3. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins OR The Killer

4. Bradley Cooper, Maestro

5. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

 

Best Actress

1. Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall

2. Fantasia, Color Purple

3. Greta Lee, Past Lives

4. Emma Stone, Poor Things

5. Natalie Portman, May December

[Flip]

just a hunch but I feel like one of spiderverse and Dead Reckoning might sneak into a nom

[LegionWrex]

1 hour ago, Flip said:

just a hunch but I feel like one of spiderverse and Dead Reckoning might sneak into a nom

Spider-Verse absolutely could though I'm pretty skeptical on that by nature (superhero film, animated, first one didn't get nominated) but I also wouldn't be entirely shocked if it did. There does seem to be a lot of support for it.

 

Dead Reckoning though? Hell no. In fact, the MI films are notoriously MIA at the Oscars as not a single film has ever been nominated and if Fallout with it's universal acclaim couldn't do it I doubt Dead Reckoning will.

[CoolioD1]

Spider-Verse was basically my #11 I weighed up putting it in. Many industry people have been hyping it up a lot too I wouldn't be surprised if it got the nod.

Edited July 10, 2023 by CoolioD1

[Joel M]

I think Spiderverse won't happen if only because it's the middle movie and ends on a cliffhanger. I wonder if it can at least break through to other categories like the big PIXARs used to do. That will be a sign they 're taking this as seriously as golden era PIXAR, and the next one could make a play for BP nom if it lands as well as Across.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

The year looks very strong for populist and/or genre studio films--Barbie, Dune 2, Oppenheimer, Color Purple to name a few. not only that, Spiderverse will have animation bias + cliffhanger bias. I also think the Miyazaki film can overshadow Spiderverse

[LegionWrex]

41 minutes ago, Joel M said:

I think Spiderverse won't happen if only because it's the middle movie and ends on a cliffhanger. I wonder if it can at least break through to other categories like the big PIXARs used to do. That will be a sign they 're taking this as seriously as golden era PIXAR, and the next one could make a play for BP nom if it lands as well as Across.

My take is that I think Spider-Verse is probably going to get a ton of tech noms (Score, VFX, Sound) so that could boost it. Adapted Screenplay is possible but it's a competitive category this year.

[LegionWrex]

16 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

The year looks very strong for populist and/or genre studio films--Barbie, Dune 2, Oppenheimer, Color Purple to name a few. not only that, Spiderverse will have animation bias + cliffhanger bias. I also think the Miyazaki film can overshadow Spiderverse

At this point I don't know if either Spider-Verse or How Do You Live get in. Pinocchio not getting in last year was the final nail in the coffin for me in terms of whether or not animation was really going to get into the Oscars and at this point I'm just not predicting them for Picture anymore. I'll gladly predict them for other categories and I think both films will be competitive but I will believe it until I see it.

[filmlover]

May December opens NYFF this year.