M3GAN W33K3ND THR3AD | ACTUALS - DADDY CAM3RON'S MAGNUM OPUS 45.8M | DOCUM3NTARY ABOUT KILL3R DOLL 30.4M | ORANG3 PANTH3R 13.5M

[M37]

10 minutes ago, Ezen Baklattan said:

The same IM as Smile gets it to $31m.

 

I do think it'll be more frontloaded, but PG-13 horror tends to see bigger jumps on Friday, albeit with weaker Saturdays and Sundays, so I think  it could still happen.

Worth nothing that Smile’s Thursday was partially deflated from closures across FL (a good market for horror) in wake of Hurricane Ian, so that IM may be overstated

 

With holiday effect, I’m expecting more of an Invitation/Black Phone IM in the 8.5x range. Something like $10.5/$9.5/5 = $24M

[Torontofan]

27 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Flop + first + theaters doomed + ratio.

 

You should start a boxoffice discord 

[JustLurking]

14 minutes ago, AJG said:

Is a 77% Verified Score good for a movie like this?

 

I don’t normally follow horror, and I know CinemaScores VA scores for the genre should be treated differently than others.

It's good for horror. Though I hear this one isn't all that scary so maybe should adjust it down a bit, buuut, yeah, still feels good to me.

[DAJK]

6 minutes ago, M37 said:

Worth nothing that Smile’s Thursday was partially deflated from closures across FL (a good market for horror) in wake of Hurricane Ian, so that IM may be overstated

 

With holiday effect, I’m expecting more of an Invitation/Black Phone IM in the 8.5x range. Something like $10.5/$9.5/5 = $24M

Invitation/Black Phone opened in the summer, when IMs are weaker. January horror should have better holds throughout the weekend than that.

[Tokugennumataka]

M3GAN:

10.75 (2.75 + 8

9.5 (-12%)

6.2 (-35%) // 26.5M

Avatwo:

10.9 (+63%)

17.5 (+60%)

11.7 (-33%) // 40.1M 

 

 

[M37]

3 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Invitation/Black Phone opened in the summer, when IMs are weaker. January horror should have better holds throughout the weekend than that.

But this is still semi-holiday January, not middle of the month, where Thursday is inflated, and Black Phone had a -22% Sunday, Megan will be like -45%

 

The weekend path will be different, but final IM value close IMO

Edited January 6, 2023 by M37

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Here are the rest of the Thursday numbers per Deadline: https://deadline.com/2023/01/box-office-m3gan-avatar-the-way-of-water-1235212918/

Quote

Among regular films in release, 20th Century Studios/Lightstorm/Disney’s Avatar: The Way of Water lead Thursday with $6.7M at 4,202 theaters, -10% from Wednesday with a running total of $471.7M. The sequel made $113.5M for the week.

Uni/DreamWorks Animation’s Puss in Boots: The Last Wish at 4,121 sites did $2M yesterday, -11% from Wednesday for a $30M second week and running total of $74.6M.

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever at 2,310 ends its eighth week with an estimated $8.8M, a $490K Thursday and a running total of $441.9M.

Tri-Star/Compelling Pictures/Black Label Media’s I Wanna Dance With Somebody at 3,625 saw a second Thursday of $444K, a second week of $6.7M and a running total of $17.3M.

Paramount’s Babylon at 3,351 posted an estimated $353K Thursday, -16% from Wednesday, a second week of $4.7M and a running total of $12M. That bests the $11.3M lifetime domestic total of Guillermo del Toro’s period title Nightmare Alley which went on to be nominated for four Oscar including Best Picture. Proof that poor ticket sales don’t necessarily impact awards season chances.

[Torontofan]

2 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Here are the rest of the Thursday numbers per Deadline: https://deadline.com/2023/01/box-office-m3gan-avatar-the-way-of-water-1235212918/

 

Black Panther doing solid business. 

 

Local theater the shows are always like 30-40% full each evening while new movies be a ghost town. 

Edited January 6, 2023 by Torontofan

[stephanos13]

As said yesterday, Keeping 670M run as floor until JAN 13 just to be conservative, but unless some disaster happens after MLK day, 750M at US #BoxOffice should be minimum (800M+ not a pipe dream anymore) as #AvatarTheWayOfWater seems to play btw TGM & 1st Avatar.
500M+ on SAT
2/2

— Luiz Fernando (@Luiz_Fernando_J) January 5, 2023

 

Is Luiz correct, wrong or not entirely correct and wrong either with his assesment? and why?

 

His tweet is from yesterday.

[JayPrimetown]

I'm thinking $26 - $28 Million.

 

I think this would have opened at $30-$32 Million if M3GAN had PLF's. That can't be overstated here.

 

Avatar having every PLF for weeks on end is certainly driving its higher than expected numbers as well.

[Gkalaitza]

6 minutes ago, stephanos13 said:

 

Is Luiz correct, wrong or not entirely correct and wrong either with his assesment? and why?

 

His tweet is from yesterday.

85% wrong, also wrong thread

[Ezen Baklattan]

18 minutes ago, M37 said:

But this is still semi-holiday January, not middle of the month, where Thursday is inflated, and Black Phone had a -22% Sunday, Megan will be like -45%

 

The weekend path will be different, but final IM value close IMO

True, a lot of schools aren't back in until next week too, and this is going to have a lot of teens. High 20s would still be a win, IMO.

 

Either way, I think you're gonna see Avatar at #1 and M3GAN at #2 for most of January...

Edited January 6, 2023 by Ezen Baklattan

[IronJimbo]

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Edited January 6, 2023 by IronJimbo

[JayPrimetown]

3 minutes ago, stephanos13 said:

Is Luiz correct, wrong or not entirely correct and wrong either with his assesment? and why?

 

His tweet is from yesterday.

I don't see how $800 Million is possible. If it does $35 Million this weekend to get above $500 Million domestic, how could it possibly get another $300 Million. Even with another month until Ant Man comes out...

[stephanos13]

3 minutes ago, Gkalaitza said:

85% wrong, also wrong thread

 

What do you mean wrong thread? Is anything out of context of what this thread is supposed to be?

 

Also I said to explain as well your answer.

Edited January 6, 2023 by stephanos13

[Tokugennumataka]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

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17

 

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What's with the doomposting jimbo? Have you abandoned your own movie

[Flip]

9 minutes ago, stephanos13 said:

 

Is Luiz correct, wrong or not entirely correct and wrong either with his assesment? and why?

 

His tweet is from yesterday.

way overestimating

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

Below the 3M I hoped for. Oh well. If this can't post a 30M OW with huge hype and rave reviews...

You hoped for $20m a few days ago…

 

 

Anyway! Excellent start for M3gan with barely any PLF’s and a $12m production budget. 
 

$25-26m opening weekend I’d guess. 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

12 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

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Had the Thursday number been higher this would've been possible. Now it seems like a longshot. The actual weekend will probably be around the early to mid-40s for Avatar 2.

[hw64]

1 hour ago, stephanos13 said:

Is Luiz correct, wrong or not entirely correct and wrong either with his assesment? and why?

His tweet is from yesterday.

 

Luiz is once again terrible at analysing the box office.

 

A $750m domestic minimum is silly — it'd require Avatar 2 running at 75-80% of Avatar for the entire rest of its run. $800m essentially requires it running at close to 100% of Avatar from here onwards when it's already likely to fall quite a bit behind Avatar's pace by this weekend alone, let alone in the coming weeks where it gets more likely to keep losing more pace against Avatar.

Edited January 6, 2023 by hw64