MLK Weekend Thread (1/13-16) | 3-day/4-day Estimates: Avatar 32.4M/40.6M, M3GAN 18.26M/21.72M, Puss 14.39M/19.04M, Otto 12.8M/15.33M, Plane 10M/12.03M, House Party 4M/4.73M

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

18 minutes ago, M37 said:

Sure, in that TTP did fine because of Roberts and Clooney

 

It’s not a great total, but it’s well above what other titles of this ilk have been netting, and also where it’s doing well. Too much of business is being concentrated on coasts/larger metros, to the point where it’s getting harder for the middle and lower tier markets & theaters to survive. Getting a boost from Otto - or TGM before that - is a net positive for the long term health of those areas and the overall market in what content is produced 

 

Also I believe that $50M budget was 1) a pre-COVID greenlight and 2) includes P&A, so should recoup 

Per Deadline, Otto's budget itself is $50 million:

 

The movie cost $50M before P&A, co-financed by SF and TSG.

Hanks is a big star, but still...do CGI cats and snow add that much to a budget? But Otto skews older and it's Sony, so it should have legs and not get thrown to PVOD/streaming too quickly.

 

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[Verrows]

30 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Otto's success doesn't really say much about the state of adult cinema today, since Tom Hanks's inclusion gives it a massive advantage over the rest of the genre. Its opening is also not great, especially against its $50M budget. Sadly in the old world it would've made that budget back with its domestic opening alone. Now any sort of double digit opening for adult pictures is champagne-worthy.

Maybe I'm reading this wrong but are you suggesting Otto would have made $50M on OW in the old world??

[filmlover]

48 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Please repeat this next weekend when people start to melt down because the box office isn’t as high as this weekend.

 

I’m honestly really worried about the meltdowns next weekend.

No one's gonna be melting down because it's a holiday frame boosting everything this weekend. After this it's only two weekends with nothing on them besides Missing (which seems unlikely to make much of a dent) which should be good news for holdovers, and then begins a long run between Knock at the Cabin and Evil Dead Rise where we have a mix of blockbusters and potential solid mid-range hits. The pre-Guardians weekend after that will probably be the only slow one (Are You There God? It's Me Margaret looks cute but will likely end up another Edge of Seventeen at the box office) cause then it's one big release almost after another for three months straight.

Edited January 15, 2023 by filmlover

[SchumacherFTW]

1 minute ago, Verrows said:

Maybe I'm reading this wrong but are you suggesting Otto would have made $50M on OW in the old world??

Sully wasn't far off back in the day

[Verrows]

1 minute ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Sully wasn't far off back in the day

Sully opened to $35M and the intense/disaster element of it helped to that gross. Otto doesn't have nearly the same dynamic. Even in 2016 I would say between $15M and $20M. Bridge of Spies opened to $15.37M in 2015.

[stuart360]

17 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

looking like it will barely miss it. My current projections (which estimate 20-30% drops for the next few weeks), lands A2 at about 642m going into Valentine's day weekend

I meant worldwide. Titanic is at 2.194bil at the moment.

[titanic2187]

32 minutes ago, Skim Beeble said:

Violent Night is gonna end it's run annoyingly close to $50m

 

Sadly the movie quickly collapse after CD. I hope Universal give some final reexpansion to hit $50m. Same goes to Menu, I was hoping to see $40m finish line after that great holiday run but HBO max release ruin it. 

 

55 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

my dad saw top gun 2 because he heard it was making a lot of money, if avatar 2 crosses 2 billion on saturday can we expect a better than usual sunday drop?

Imagine $2bn headline and Oscar best picture nomination, there are still positive publicity surrounding Avatar 2 which probably boost some sale. 

[Cheddar Please]

1 minute ago, stuart360 said:

I meant worldwide. Titanic is at 2.194bil at the moment.

probably, Titanic seems to be a very limited rerelease anyways

[Jonwo]

35 minutes ago, Godzilla said:

I mean they're more alive than Disney Animations or Pixar right now. Sing 2 made $400M WW.

Disney and Pixar aren't dying, let's nip that in the bud.

 

34 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I definitely don’t think Otto would have opened to 50M domestic in any time period  

Otto would have done $20-35m OW at best pre pandemic, the only live action Tom Hanks starrer that has done more than $50m is The DaVinci Code and that was based on a worldwide best selling book. 

 

The budget really isn't that big a deal, the producers sold it to Sony for $60m, they've made a profit and Sony will make money as well in the long run. 

[Jonwo]

9 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Sully wasn't far off back in the day

Sully's not a great example as that had the real life story element and Clint Eastwood directing. 

[stuart360]

1 minute ago, Cheddar Please said:

probably, Titanic seems to be a very limited rerelease anyways

Imo A2 is going to hit 2.3+bil, meaning the Titanic re-release would have to gross over 100mil to keep its place (possibly quite a bit over 100mil).

 

Anyone know if the Titanic re-release is a full 3000+ release, or if its like a limited 1-2 week run?

[Cheddar Please]

1 minute ago, stuart360 said:

Imo A2 is going to hit 2.3+bil, meaning the Titanic re-release would have to gross over 100mil to keep its place (possibly quite a bit over 100mil).

 

Anyone know if the Titanic re-release is a full 3000+ release, or if its like a limited 1-2 week run?

wording suggests that it's a limited run, so yeah, it's not keeping it's place

[interiorgatordecorator]

13 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

 

 

Anyone know if the Titanic re-release is a full 3000+ release, or if its like a limited 1-2 week run?

 

no sign of the titanic re-release coming out in my country, 50 million ww is probably the most it can realistically do

[Alex SciChannel]

23 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Disney and Pixar aren't dying, let's nip that in the bud.

Pixar is. You can't confidently say they've had a surefire hit since prepandemic. 

[cookie]

42 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

Per Deadline, Otto's budget itself is $50 million:

 

 

 

Hanks is a big star, but still...do CGI cats and snow add that much to a budget? But Otto skews older and it's Sony, so it should have legs and not get thrown to PVOD/streaming too quickly.

 

 

Wouldn't be surprised if Hanks had a salary in the eight figures. Sony did pay $60m for the rights to distribute it, so it's already in the black for the producers anyhow.

Edited January 15, 2023 by cookie

[M37]

1 hour ago, stuart360 said:

Puss in Boots going to blow past 300mil. Who would of predicted that after the OW?

 

On 12/21/2022 at 9:47 AM, M37 said:

Yeah, thinking Puss is going surprise some people, especially from Xmas day onward - really getting a Jumanji WTJ vibe here (for a few reasons). The Sing 2 and Sonic 2 comps drag down the average, but both being sequels to recent releases likely makes them more pre-sale heavy/frontloaded

 

Now expecting $4M+ for OD (excluding EA, and barring weather impacts), and if it tracks similar to Jumanji WTJ, $150M+ is in play

PiB 1st week (Wed-Tue) = $32.87M, the same JWTJ 4.55x --> $149.5 DOM (and it looks to probably edge a bit above that)

[M37]

30 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Anyone know if the Titanic re-release is a full 3000+ release, or if its like a limited 1-2 week run?

Probably similar to Avatar in September, being a 3D-focused sub-2K location release, likely a 2 week official engagement that can be extended if business warrants. Problem is that Avatar will still be doing fine by then and second week is Ant-Man, so the number of 3D screens available will be far less, especially for that 2nd week when its the 3rd option instead of the 1st/only as Avatar was [And Disney will be pushing 3D for AMWQ, including in PLFs]

[JustLurking]

Just now, M37 said:

Probably similar to Avatar in September, being a 3D-focused sub-2K location release, likely a 2 week official engagement that can be extended if business warrants. Problem is that Avatar will still be doing fine by then and second week is Ant-Man, so the number of 3D screens available will be far less, especially for that 2nd week when its the 3rd option instead of the 1st/only as Avatar was [And Disney will be pushing 3D for AMWQ, including in PLFs]

I do wonder if pushing 3D for AM is even wise tbh, even for A2 there was some degree of resistance and the ant-man trailer looked completely unimpressive before it. No way I'd go 3D for it myself.

[M37]

2 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

I do wonder if pushing 3D for AM is even wise tbh, even for A2 there was some degree of resistance and the ant-man trailer looked completely unimpressive before it. No way I'd go 3D for it myself.

Disney is determined to milk 3D for whatever they can, and while I agree there was some resistance even for Avatwo, the overall performance does show the potential demand is perhaps more than some of us (myself included) expected

 

Expect AMWQ to get the BPWF treatment, one 3D IMAX show, plus a full screen in standard 3D, but I think lower baseline demand for this one makes it a little easier for people who aren't interested to sidestep rather than "settle" for those 3D showings