Weekend Thread | Estimates: Avatar 19.7, Puss 11.5, M3GAN 9.8, Missing 9.3, Otto 9

[CaptNathanBrittles]

AVATAR went 9 weeks above $20m (10 adjusted for inflation).

 

[Godzilla]

People also need to take into account that the first Puss in Boots made $50M in Russia its biggest market. This one won't have that market sadly. 

[Sophia Jane]

5 minutes ago, Godzilla said:

People also need to take into account that the first Puss in Boots made $50M in Russia its biggest market. This one won't have that market sadly. 

ER is fucked in Russia,so rven it’s release it’s not gonna do that

[The Dark Alfred]

A2 had a decent Saturday jump again, but it's clear it's started to fade. Still all time #4 is very good, but it will start losing to TGM every weekend from now on. The TGM dream is over. Dead and buried. Can't see it doing another 100m with a sub 20m 6th weekend. Should beat JW however, but let's see what it does when it loses more PLF screens. Impressive chart read for Cameron for sure.

 

Biggest domestic 6th weekend:

 

1	Jan 22, 2010	Avatar	$34,944,081	3,141	$11,125	$551,741,499
2	Jul 1, 2022	Top Gun: Maverick	$25,887,192	3,843	$6,736	$564,362,559
3	Jan 23, 1998	Titanic	$25,238,720	2,771	$9,108	$274,599,886
4	Jan 20, 2023	Avatar: The Way of Water	$19,685,000	3,790	$5,194	$597,961,353

 

 

Edited January 22, 2023 by The Dark Alfred

[M37]

Won't be surprised if Avatwo has a better Sunday and nudges up over $20M for the weekend

 

Based on the last two weeks, this is roughly where I'd peg the final numbers:

 

Avatwo = $660M - $690M (sorry @Brainbug)

tracking a bit below Jumanji WTJ, which had a 2.64x from MLK Week

PiB = $170-$190M

Higher uncertainty in these lower value but strong holding titles, but that would be slightly below to matching Greatest Showman from here (3.54x)

 

If there is a case to be made for higher numbers, it will happen in the next two weeks, with basically an empty weekend, bettering the holds, and then also the week after, which is the off-week for NFL before Super Bowl and Ant-Man start pressing down

 

 

[Godzilla]

6 minutes ago, Sophia Jane said:

ER is fucked in Russia,so rven it’s release it’s not gonna do that

Still $20M-$30M is a big loss.

[Boxofficerules]

Will next weekend be worse than this? I can’t see Fear hitting the top 10. Infinity Pool May hit top 5 only due to how quiet it is. Distant is listed as a wide release next weekend but I can’t find a poster or trailer for it.

[KGPatt2]

49 minutes ago, XXR You Ok Annie said:

So TGM will take DOM 2022 and ATWOW will take OS/WW. Good stuff. 

 

For 2023, I'll take GOTG3 DOM but I'm not sure about OS or WW yet. Maybe Fast X? MI:DR1? Mario? Indy 5? Aquaman 2?

I like having 2 different movies win that way. Feels like a better overall year for some reason.

[M37]

2 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Will next weekend be worse than this? I can’t see Fear hitting the top 10. Infinity Pool May hit top 5 only due to how quiet it is. Distant is listed as a wide release next weekend but I can’t find a poster or trailer for it.

Yes, absolutely will be lower. But still looking at probably $50M+ for top 10, better than September of last year; and well above the sun-$40M totals we had last January. The lows being not as low is a sign of overall recovery 

[Mr Roark]

I’ve never been on board with A2 to cross $700M domestic and looks like it really won’t happen in the end.

Anyway even if it it will lose to Mav by $30M DOM who cares. Worldwide it will make almost what Mav and Wakanda did combined.

Crazy.

[CJohn]

Otto looking at a 60M total. M3GAN 90M+. Missing should end above 20M. Solid start of 2023.

 

Sad to see Avatar below 20M. I was hoping it would go just above the mark this weekend. 

 

Puss continues to slay. 175M+ in play.

[Mr Roark]

2 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Otto looking at a 60M total. M3GAN 90M+. Missing should end above 20M. Solid start of 2023.

 

Sad to see Avatar below 20M. I was hoping it would go just above the mark this weekend. 

 

Puss continues to slay. 175M+ in play.

Actuals will likely push it over $20M…

[DAJK]

7 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Otto looking at a 60M total. M3GAN 90M+. Missing should end above 20M. Solid start of 2023.

 

Sad to see Avatar below 20M. I was hoping it would go just above the mark this weekend. 

 

Puss continues to slay. 175M+ in play.

Bring on 30M opening for Knock at the Cabin.

[CJohn]

Just now, DAJK said:

Bring on 30M opening for Knock at the Cabin.

I think the potential is there but it needs good reviews.

[M37]

8 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Otto looking at a 60M total. M3GAN 90M+. Missing should end above 20M. Solid start of 2023.

 

Sad to see Avatar below 20M. I was hoping it would go just above the mark this weekend. 

 

Puss continues to slay. 175M+ in play.

January 2023 has already outgrossed January 2022 as of Fri 1/20, so with 12 more days to go. Will end up over $500M in total, probably not that far off from the ~$570M total in March and April last year. From an overall market perspective, that's good progress

[Taruseth]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

January 2023 has already outgrossed January 2022 as of Fri 1/20, so with 12 more days to go. Will end up over $500M in total, probably not that far off from the ~$570M total in March and April last year. From an overall market perspective, that's good progress

That would still make it the lowest January since 1997 (apart from 2020 and 2021). Though not far off of 2000 or so.

Based on that there is still a long way to go.

[interiorgatordecorator]

4 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

Yeah the upredictibility for A2 is gone now so it's not too fun to follow.

#3 Worldwide

#5-8 Domestic

 

I suppose it could fall off a cliff domestically when Ant-man comes out due to the PLF's getting taking away, apart from that nothing interesting will happen.

 

#3 ww is great considering the caveats

how you feeling about 700? maybe tgm can fall with a re-release (unless we see a magic drop next week)

[TwoMisfits]

14 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Bring on 30M opening for Knock at the Cabin.

 

Having seen the preview at Plane, I'm torn on this one...

 

Part of me wonders if you can keep the same conflict interesting for 90+ minutes.  Do X or else said over and over and over again, just with stakes increasing might cause audiences to start throwing popcorn at the screen saying "get on with it" while M Night is secretly thinking "I'm getting there, I'm getting there" (yes, I'm quoting a famous Clue line - sue me:),...

 

But what do I know.  I enjoy M Night, but I'm not an uber M Night fan...like Old was interesting, but some of the acting and scenes - oof!

Edited January 22, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[filmlover]

I can see Knock at the Cabin pulling a $20M+ opening if reviews are semi-decent at least. Intriguing hook and Universal's promoting it aggressively.

[Krissykins]

I’m expecting high teens (like Old) or low 20’s for Knock at the Cabin. I feel like Old’s hook was stronger. Would still be a good opening though.