Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania — Weekend Thread | 105.5M 3-Day, 120M 4-Day

[upriser7]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

29+ looks likely. proly 29.5

do you have any numbers for the holdovers ?

[M37]

16 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

Slightly off topic. Usually even when I don't like a movie that did well at box office, I usually tend to understand why critics and general audience loved it. But the one movie over the last decade which I hated and never could understand how it did so well at boxoffice was The Revenant. One of the most boring movies I watched in theatre. There was literally nothing happening in the movie....I was shocked to see that movie doing greater than $500M at boxoffice. 

I feel that way about Mad Max Fury Road. Not arguing it was bad or boring, just could not get into it, no matter how many times I tried 

 

I do not need to be convinced why I’m wrong, just wasn’t for me 

[Cheddar Please]

Maybe I'm just being pessimistic, but so far for both MOM and L&T we've seen weekend projections collapse to 5x IM every when people projected that it was gonna be higher, I don't see how this is gonna be any different given that Quantumania is getting similar reviews to those two.
 

Spoiler

Dread it, run from it, 100m is dead all the same

 

 

Edited February 18, 2023 by Cheddar Please

[Ronin46]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

the number i gave was 18-18.5, which I still think should be 18+.

 

This is what you said

 

315K is what I had expected. That will be good for $19M I guess.

 

Sales did get there so thats where 19M came from.

 

 

[Ronin46]

Anyway I am not trying to be a pain. I am just confused how this has played out for a movie with poor reception and a real slowdown in sales to actually come out a fair bit higher than I expected a few hours ago. 17.5M seemed low so naturally expectations had to be lowered I thought. Maybe I have been wrong the whole time. 

[Verrows]

24 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

Slightly off topic. Usually even when I don't like a movie that did well at box office, I usually tend to understand why critics and general audience loved it. But the one movie over the last decade which I hated and never could understand how it did so well at boxoffice was The Revenant. One of the most boring movies I watched in theatre. There was literally nothing happening in the movie....I was shocked to see that movie doing greater than $500M at boxoffice. 

Ohh we have really different tastes haha. One of my favourites.

[Orestes]

52 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

Loki isn´t even close to be a worst MCU projects. In fact it´s easily on of their best.

I'd rate it upper-mid tier, but yeah not even close to their worst. I think they should probably stop with the Rick and Morty writers, though.

Edited February 18, 2023 by Orestes

[Landon1195]

Any theories on why Quantumania is underperforming more overseas than domestically?

[OncomingStorm93]

You know who Feige should bring in to righten the scripts? To fix up whatever the Rick and Morty writers have been cooking for the next two Avengers films?

 

Go get Dan Harmon. I'm serious. Go all the way, get the man who it really seems has been the driving creative force behind the show, the one with the biggest and best track record, who knows Loveless and Waldron and has surely doctored their scripts before on Rick and Morty in the writers room. He knows how to play with genre. Master at character dynamics. Can deconstruct and reconstruct a plot any number of ways.

[keysersoze123]

32 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

I will be glad when this weekend is over. Talk about a roller coaster trying to predict ANT3. Just when 95M looks around about for 3 day it goes back up to well over 100 again in the space of a few hours. 

As I posted several hours ago numbers that early tend to change. There are too many assumptions placed on what happens later in the day. But by now things are mostly final. So its easy to project. 

[Legion Again]

Btw @Shawn that real money betting market is up to $15k volume now which is honestly more interest than I was expecting — though I’d want to see like $500k before taking it too seriously (currently ~4% yes)

[keysersoze123]

9 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

This is what you said

 

315K is what I had expected. That will be good for $19M I guess.

 

Sales did get there so thats where 19M came from.

 

 

You are comparing projecting from a small data vs looking at real time BO. You dont get that during previews. If you had followed BO, by friday evening you get fairly accurate number. 

[Orestes]

13 minutes ago, M37 said:

I feel that way about Mad Max Fury Road. Not arguing it was bad or boring, just could not get into it, no matter how many times I tried 

 

I do not need to be convinced why I’m wrong, just wasn’t for me 

 

If I taught a film class, I'd probably use Fury Road as my go to example for Show, Don't Tell. I don't know if it's a masterpiece exactly, and that term gets tossed around so much it's practically worthless anyway, but Fury Road is pretty damn close.

Edited February 18, 2023 by Orestes

[DAJK]

Eh... I don't know if the lesson Marvel should be taking away from Quantumania is "hire MORE Rick & Morty writers".

[M37]

7 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

Anyway I am not trying to be a pain. I am just confused how this has played out for a movie with poor reception and a real slowdown in sales to actually come out a fair bit higher than I expected a few hours ago. 17.5M seemed low so naturally expectations had to be lowered I thought. Maybe I have been wrong the whole time. 

To be fair, the only real comparable Thur/Fri - since BPWF had a holiday, Thor was summer, and the rest were far lower - is MoM. That had far more hype and edged over a 1.5x, so nudging up to or slightly over 1.6x from a 40% lower preview value a holiday weekend isn’t all that much better, due to worse WOM

 

But I’m definitely in wait and see mode, given how weak walk-ups were last night and (from what I’m hearing) for later evening shows tonight 

[OncomingStorm93]

1 minute ago, DAJK said:

Eh... I don't know if the lesson Marvel should be taking away from Quantumania is "hire MORE Rick & Morty writers".

Dan Harmon predates R&M. His work on Community is akin to the Russo Brothers and their television directing accomplishments.

 

Also, apparently Harmon did uncredited rewrites on Dr Strange 1, so he has an existing relationship with Marvel... 

[Verrows]

I will say that there was a definite buzz in my theatre when it ended. People seemed to enjoy it and are ready for what's next. 

 

-

 

Also, do people really get married to the numbers Charlie and other trackers throw out there? They do their best but the nature of this beast is that things can change before the day ends.

[upriser7]

13 minutes ago, M37 said:

I feel that way about Mad Max Fury Road. Not arguing it was bad or boring, just could not get into it, no matter how many times I tried 

 

I do not need to be convinced why I’m wrong, just wasn’t for me 

I personally didn't like Fury Road that much as I am not really a big action movie buff but I atleast sorta understood why it had such good WOM and worked for general audience. With Revenant, the only positive thing I have to say about that movie is that it has some cool visuals.

[thajdikt]

10 minutes ago, Orestes said:

I'd rate it upper-mid tier, but yeah not even close to their worst. I think they should probably stop with the Rick and Morty writers, though.

Yeah. It´s getting to much of Rick and Morty now. Hopefully they see that.

[filmlover]

Ant-Man being backloaded (by MCU standards) sort of makes sense since it is a 4-day holiday weekend. No need to rush out on a Thursday night when you have extra time off.