THE LITTLE MERMAID WEEKEND THREAD

[Roxanne]

3 hours ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Can see it dropping 60% depending on how high spiderverse  opens. 

Social media reactions for ATSV were extremely positive and if reviews come out 95%+ .  Presales have been good can see a weekend as high as 120M+ 

 

Aladdin dropped 53% and it  had KOTM that weekend which opened to 46m

 

 

Yeah, 60% seems like a reasonable prediction to me? TLM is getting good/great WOM but not leaps and bounds beyond Aladdin's, and ATSV is way bigger and more direct competition than KOTM was. Add in the added importance of PLFs nowadays and I don't see why TLM's drop would be lower than Aladdin's. Feel free to point something out if I'm missing something here, I'm open to modulating lol

Edited May 26, 2023 by Roxanne

[upriser7]

I don't really have much interest in watching TLM but it does feel like it has very good WOM ,atleast in US. RT audience score is a positive sign and I have seen people on my TL who are usually skeptical of live action remakes, big blockbusters etc giving better reviews for this than what I typically would expect from them...Halle seems to be getting good praise and she seems to have been suited well for the role. Hope it can atleast cross $600M WW.

[PrinceRico]

With a 40+ opening day would that put the 4 day closer to 130 especially with Great WOM

[AniNate]

The year is still pacing well ahead of last at this point, and June has a ton of tentpoles on the docket (granted some of those may tank)

[Bob Train]

14 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

2023 is the second "normal" year after Covid but May monthly gross is now looking at around $720m, shockingly this is lower than the May of 2022! This is a very unpleasant result because I think the marketplace has enough flow of product to make monthly gross more comparable to pre-Covid time but they are still underperform compared to recent years.

Guardians 3 opened 70 million below Multiverse of Madness, and Top Gun was a colossal hit even in the first week. Not surprising that this month is lower considering Guardians had to deal with AM3's fallout and F&F has become a non-factor domestically.

 

I mean, we can't expect every month this year to increase over every month last year. That's never happened in the modern history of the Box Office. Even in 2022, some months were below 2021. And in 2021 some months were below 2020.

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, efialtes76 said:

TLM won't do the billion because the animation movie wasn't so popular like Aladdin,Beauty and the Beast or TLK.

And that's all.

Ehhh.. kind of debatable. I would argue in essence you’re correct it’s not quite on the level of those 3. But I think it’s very very very close behind. The box office at the time is not a good measure, you have to look at lasting impact/relevancy. Ariel might only be behind Elsa (and maybe Belle) for popular Disney princesses in modern times. 

[upriser7]

I am not exactly sure about East Asian markets like China, Korea but atleast when it comes to Indian subcontinent, Little Mermaid was never really that well known when compared to likes of Aladdin. I don't think this movie would have done that well here even if lead role was played by a caucasian.

[titanic2187]

6 minutes ago, Hatebox said:

“We’ve tried nothing and we’re all out of ideas!” - Hollywood execs

I think there are too many well-received movie are simply Not marketed enough. Like Lionsgate, they have been making some great movie with good WOM like Margaret and Sisu but both films ended up doing minuscule BO. Margaret making less money than War with Grandpa is not making sense at all. All kind of undermarketed move limit the BO celling because there just aren't enough of surprise hit in the market to offset other miss.  

 

 

 

 

[grey ghost]

14 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

 

And the international audience for the little mermaid is racist? If a film doesn't draw in an audience does that automatically mean it's racist because the lead actor is black? Like I truly don't understand this.

 

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

I am not exactly sure about East Asian markets like China, Korea but atleast when it comes to Indian subcontinent, Little Mermaid was never really that well known when compared to likes of Aladdin. I don't think this movie would have done that well here even if lead role was played by a caucasian.

It’s the only Renaissance film to get its own land in a Disney park in Tokyo… I feel like it’s had to have been pretty popular in Japan at least for that. 

[Eric Quinn]

I'm sorry, but there was nothing different in terms of the advertising, appeal, and critical reception for Little Mermaid compared to any of the other recent Disney remakes. And Little Mermaid isn't this obscure title in the Disney Animation library. It was a big hit at the time, one of the biggest home video hits ever, the Disney Princess franchise has kept it relevant for decades, Ariel is one of the most beloved and iconic Disney Princesses ever. I have very strong doubts that success wasn't felt in other major territories.

 

And while the lack of some big international star like Jolie can explain things and I do agree with that (though Dumbo didn't have some big global superstar either, and it still got 67% of its money from overseas), the only other key difference this movie has that other movies don't is that the main character has a different race from the cartoon. And considering that there are legit reports here that there have been hate campaigns made towards Halle Bailey within overseas countries (check the Little Mermaid thread, that stuff is mentioned) because she is Black (and yes, that is the reason)...yeah, racism is playing a factor here. Whether you like it or not.

 

Is it the main one? Probably not. But I sincerely doubt things would skew the way it is if Ariel was played by Sadie Sink or some other white girl. And I don't think we should dance around the idea or speculate some other problem here, as it's only us putting our heads into the sand and ignoring that anti-Black racism is alive and well.

[Firepower]

1 minute ago, titanic2187 said:

I think there are too many well-received movie are simply Not marketed enough. Like Lionsgate, they have been making some great movie with good WOM like Margaret and Sisu but both films ended up doing minuscule BO. Margaret making less money than War with Grandpa is not making sense at all. All kind of undermarketed move limit the BO celling because there just aren't enough of surprise hit in the market to offset other miss.  

Or maybe people just don't care. There's no magic marketing that would turn, let's say, Dungeons & Dragons into 500+ mln grosser, maybe in early 2000s, but not 2023. Some titles could've grossed more, sure, but that "more" is not times more.

[Last Man Standing]

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Ehhh.. kind of debatable. I would argue in essence you’re correct it’s not quite on the level of those 3. But I think it’s very very very close behind. The box office at the time is not a good measure, you have to look at lasting impact/relevancy. Ariel might only be behind Elsa (and maybe Belle) for popular Disney princesses in modern times. 

TLM wasn't as big as those other movies because it was the movie that spearheaded Disney's reinessances, and the other movies benefited from it.

[titanic2187]

8 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Guardians 3 opened 70 million below Multiverse of Madness, and Top Gun was a colossal hit even in the first week. Not surprising that this month is lower considering Guardians had to deal with AM3's fallout and F&F has become a non-factor domestically.

 

I mean, we can't expect every month this year to increase over every month last year. That's never happened in the modern history of the Box Office. Even in 2022, some months were below 2021. And in 2021 some months were below 2020.

Of course we can expect every month grow from last year but it is not like May of 2022 play like a normal May either. $720m-$730m is the top 5 worst May in the past 20 years. Your stance only stand if the monthly gross start behaving like a normal May then yes, the fluctuation from year to year is inevitable but now we aren't. In fact, it isn't even close. 

[The GOAT]

40 minutes ago, baumer said:

And the international audience for the little mermaid is racist? If a film doesn't draw in an audience does that automatically mean it's racist because the lead actor is black? Like I truly don't understand this.

That perhaps could be True. 

But the counter argument would be that if you refuse to buy a ticket to watch Korean, Japanese, Chinese, Indian, Ugandan, etc movies, Does that also make you a racist? Spade for Spade, no? 

Edited May 26, 2023 by The GOAT

[Last Man Standing]

1 minute ago, Firepower said:

Or maybe people just don't care. There's no magic marketing that would turn, let's say, Dungeons & Dragons into 500+ mln grosser, maybe in early 2000s, but not 2023. Some titles could've grossed more, sure, but that "more" is not times more.

Eh, if people can be made to care about super niche geek properties like GotG they can be made to care about D&D, but it requires a lot of investment, and delivering of consistently well received content, like the MCU pre GotG.

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, Last Man Standing said:

TLM wasn't as big as those other movies because it was the movie that spearheaded Disney's reinessances, and the other movies benefited from it.

Exactly. Some might not realize what serious trouble animated films were in at the time. It was basically considered a dead art form for commercial profitability. TLM kind of single handily dug the medium out of the grave again. And the last impact has been massive, I might even argue above Aladdin’s. But still behind BatB and TLK. 

[Firepower]

1 minute ago, Last Man Standing said:

Eh, if people can be made to care about super niche geek properties like GotG they can be made to care about D&D, but it requires a lot of investment, and delivering of consistently well received content, like the MCU pre GotG.

No, GotG had MCU brand which automatically turns it into commercially appealing title with giant fanbase ready to consoome. D&D didn't have popular movie IP, it's an uphill battle without it, especially today when people are less and less interested in watching anything other than very popular and recognizable IP stuff.

[druv10]

1) Little Mermaid (Dis) 4,320 theaters, Fri $38M, 3-day $105M, 4-day $125M/Wk 1

2) Fast X (Uni) 4,088 (+42) theaters, Fri $6M (-79%), 3-day $21.8M (-67%), 4-day $27.2M, Total $112.1M/Wk 2

3) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Dis) 3,940 (-510) theaters, Fri $5.4M (-36%) 3-day $20.6M (-36%) 4-day $26.6M, Total $306M/Wk 4

4) Super Mario Bros (Uni) 3,148 (-392) theaters, Fri $1.65M (-29%) 3-day $6.2M (-35%), 4-day $8.2M, Total $560.8M/Wk 8

5) The Machine (Leg/Sony) 2,409 theaters, Fri $2.4M 3-day $6.3M, 4-day $7.8M/Wk 1

6) About My Father (LG) 2,464 theaters, Fri $1.3M 3-day $3.8M 4-day $4.7M/ Wk 1

7) Kandahar (OR/Briar) 2,105 theaters, Fri $550K 3-day $1.64M 4-day $2M /Wk 1

8) You Hurt My Feelings (A24) 912 theaters, Fri $300K 3-day $890K 4-day $1.1M /Wk 1

 

https://deadline.com/2023/05/box-office-the-little-mermaid-1235380526/

Edited May 26, 2023 by druv10

[keysersoze123]

Obviously its early and numbers can go up but I dont see 105m from 38m friday including 10.3m previews. Anyway its really early. Let us wait for evening number. may be we will see @RthMav again today :-)