Weekend Numbers | Weekend Estimates | 120.5M SPIDER-MAN: ATSV | 40.6M TLM | 12.3M THE BOOGEYMAN | 10.2M GOTG III

[Incarnadine]

It has been a long time since I've posted here. I kind of lost interest when theaters got closed during the "pandemic" and never really got back into following boxoffice, but I'm starting to find it interesting again.

 

I guess I'll start my musings with TLM. Given it's budget ($250m) and marketing costs ($100m to $140m) it seems like it will most likely break even or have a small loss when only counting money from the theatrical release. If I recall correctly the standard for breaking even was a WW total of 2.5x its budget or 2x budget + marketing costs which would be anywhere from a low of $625m to a high of $780m to break even, so about $700 in the mid range.

 

Of course once the other revenue streams (TV and video sales and most especially merchandise) it will end up being profitable overall, just not as much as Disney was counting on.

 

I'm actually very curious to see how TLM merchandise revenue will be as that can be far more profitable if a movie strikes the right cord.

I still remember Frozen, Disney made a huge profit just from the theatrical release, but that was dwarfed by the merchandise sales (I still see tons of Frozen stuff in the stores)

[Mr Terrific]

Incarnadine brings up a good point. 
Disney has a more ways to draw revenue. Merchandise is a big part of their equation. Does doing a TLM live-action movie gross $10 million more in merch than not doing one? $50 million?

I have no sense of this. 

[ogkalu]

6 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Anything above The Little Mermaid. But, need to be a bit optimistic - some markets are showing frontloadness (Eg. Indonesia OD ~ $400K (Wed OD) // Total by SUN (only $1.7M)

 

So kinda a bit worried where it's heading 

TLM beating SV WW isn't out of the question. Certainly wouldn't rule it out yet.

[von Kenni]

9 minutes ago, eddyxx said:

holy shit, they paid only 7 million for the spider-man film rights? what a steal. a deal like that in 2023 would be worth probably 4-8 billion for rights of spider-man alone.

I saw that too and wondered if it's a typo. Nice one.

 

Regarding the current value of the filming (is merch completely included with these?) it might be around $2B but hard to see it much bigger. NWH made almost $2B in the BO but the profit for the studio was probably around $600m-650m with quick and dirty analysis. In simple terms, a $2B price tag would mean that I would need to make at least six NWH-worth successes in the next 12 years to make it worthwhile and provide around 11% annual ROI for the investment during that time. Now how sure are we that the Spidey brand can produce six NWH-style successes during the next 12 years? Would you take that deal?

 

$1B and three NWHs in the next 12yrs sounds like a reasonable deal.

 

 

[von Kenni]

19 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

There was a reason TLM was the very last of the Big 4 Renaissance films to be remade. The underwater setting was always gonna cost $$

 

Anyways, TLM won't be a money loser even if it flops internationally as it will be very lucrative for Disney+ down the line.

 

How will it be lucrative for Disney+?

[Jonwo]

I think Sony's Spider-Man rights are limited to film, TV and games and they still have to pay Marvel a slice of the profits. It's still valuable to them because let's face it, they have limited options for franchises so they're milking Spider-Man as much as they can. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Incarnadine]

9 minutes ago, Mr Terrific said:

Incarnadine brings up a good point. 
Disney has a more ways to draw revenue. Merchandise is a big part of their equation. Does doing a TLM live-action movie gross $10 million more in merch than not doing one? $50 million?

I have no sense of this. 

Merchandise is huge for Disney, but can vary immensely from movie to movie.

I mentioned Frozen, but that was a true outlier and can't really be used as a comparison for other Disney movies.

I don't recall the exact numbers, but merchandise sales for Frozen were well over a Billion before Frozen was even out of the theaters.

Several sites were reporting sales weekly and stores (Disney, Target, Walmart, etc) were selling out the same day a shipment would come in and people were taking picture of the empty shelves where Frozen merchandise was supposed to be. They were even limiting how many items people could buy.

 

I don't know where you could find merchandise sales these days, but I do know Marvel merchandise sales are pretty strong and merchandise for classic Disney animated movies has been steady for years (so they are still making money from old titles).

[Maggie]

So how much will Spidey end up with? 400-500 is possible?

[Jonwo]

Just now, Incarnadine said:

Merchandise is huge for Disney, but can vary immensely from movie to movie.

I mentioned Frozen, but that was a true outlier and can't really be used as a comparison for other Disney movies.

I don't recall the exact numbers, but merchandise sales for Frozen were well over a Billion before Frozen was even out of the theaters.

Several sites were reporting sales weekly and stores (Disney, Target, Walmart, etc) were selling out the same day a shipment would come in and people were taking picture of the empty shelves where Frozen merchandise was supposed to be. They were even limiting how many items people could buy.

 

I don't know where you could find merchandise sales these days, but I do know Marvel merchandise sales are pretty strong and merchandise for classic Disney animated movies has been steady for years (so they are still making money from old titles).

 

Cars come to mind as a monster merchandise seller which is mad considering the films were modest success at best. 

 

The parks have always been a huge money maker for the company hence why despite the issues in Florida, they're committed to investing in it. The theatre division also is very profitable as well. 

[Mr Terrific]

Thanks. 
I know this is a box office board, but merch seems to answer why Disney can go so huge on these budgets. 

[von Kenni]

3 minutes ago, Incarnadine said:

Merchandise is huge for Disney, but can vary immensely from movie to movie.

I mentioned Frozen, but that was a true outlier and can't really be used as a comparison for other Disney movies.

I don't recall the exact numbers, but merchandise sales for Frozen were well over a Billion before Frozen was even out of the theaters.

Several sites were reporting sales weekly and stores (Disney, Target, Walmart, etc) were selling out the same day a shipment would come in and people were taking picture of the empty shelves where Frozen merchandise was supposed to be. They were even limiting how many items people could buy.

 

I don't know where you could find merchandise sales these days, but I do know Marvel merchandise sales are pretty strong and merchandise for classic Disney animated movies has been steady for years (so they are still making money from old titles).

 

Merch can be lucrative and it's a question mark for TLM. That said, Frozen was a huge anomaly or lightning in the bottle that TLM isn't. Another factor is that often the merch revenue is a very small share of the actual sales. It's been a long time since I had dealings with merch licensing but out of my head, the actual income can be 5-15% of sales. That said, maybe Disney can handle the value chain more efficiently. So if TLM sells $100m merch the studio profits $10m...$20m out of it. For Frozen that might have been ten-fold altogether if it made that $1B in merch sales.

[wildphantom]

8 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

There was a reason TLM was the very last of the Big 4 Renaissance films to be remade. The underwater setting was always gonna cost $$

 

Anyways, TLM won't be a money loser even if it flops internationally as it will be very lucrative for Disney+ down the line.

in what way will it be lucrative for Disney+ though? As part of expectation it goes on there, but in isolation it’s arguable Disney+ has caused it to be less lucrative than it would have been. 

[Bob Train]

Spider-Verse is showing signs of strong legs (for a CBM), not fan-driven frontload. Thursday previews are lower than Guardians 3 but overall weekend is higher. And Spider-Verse had summer weekdays previews, which hypothetically should have caused it to be more preview-loaded than Guardians, but obviously it isn't, showing strong legs. It's gonna have great legs and play throughout the Summer and the haters are going to seethe.

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

20 minutes ago, Maggie said:

So how much will Spidey end up with? 400-500 is possible?

Hard to say this early, I know a few people who hate most CBMs who watched this and loved it (me included), I think this will leg out better than your average MCU flick and get over $400m but $500m seems too far. Idk it's just a hunch I have based on the WOM and chatter. 

[von Kenni]

13 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

in what way will it be lucrative for Disney+ though? As part of expectation it goes on there, but in isolation it’s arguable Disney+ has caused it to be less lucrative than it would have been. 

Exactly my thoughts too. In the current state of affairs with Disney+, I'd see it as a hindrance to selling off TV and other outside broadcasting rights rather than substituting it for new subscribers.

[CoolioD1]

4 hours ago, ringedmortality said:

isn’t that just a so-so PTA for Past Lives?

No. it's the third best PTA for a limited release since COVID.

[Incarnadine]

21 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

 

Merch can be lucrative and it's a question mark for TLM. That said, Frozen was a huge anomaly or lightning in the bottle that TLM isn't. Another factor is that often the merch revenue is a very small share of the actual sales. It's been a long time since I had dealings with merch licensing but out of my head, the actual income can be 5-15% of sales. That said, maybe Disney can handle the value chain more efficiently. So if TLM sells $100m merch the studio profits $10m...$20m out of it. For Frozen that might have been ten-fold altogether if it made that $1B in merch sales.

I honestly have no idea of the actual profit margin for Disney merchandise, maybe it is as low as you say for the big stores (Target, Walmart, etc.), but Disney also has their own stores as well as what they sell in their theme parks and I would expect their margins are higher than what they get from the big retailers.

 

In any event, I expect TLM to eventually make a small profit once all the revenue streams are accounted for, but Disney can't be happy given the amount of money  they put into it.

[JohnnyGossamer]

1 hour ago, Bob Train said:

Spider-Verse is showing signs of strong legs (for a CBM), not fan-driven frontload. Thursday previews are lower than Guardians 3 but overall weekend is higher. And Spider-Verse had summer weekdays previews, which hypothetically should have caused it to be more preview-loaded than Guardians, but obviously it isn't, showing strong legs. It's gonna have great legs and play throughout the Summer and the haters are going to seethe.

Still expecting 400M+ DOM total for Spider-Verse but it's actually slightly more frontloaded than Guardians was OW DOM... If these numbers stick, Guardians had a better Saturday and Sunday after starting with Thursday/Friday that was lower than SV 51M+.

[CJohn]

Depth continues to be the problem in the top 10. 2 movies below 1M. It is bad. Next weekend you get one wide release and 3 movies below 1M. Maybe Past Lives expands well and you get "only" 2 movies below 1M.

[jedijake]

Where did ATSV fall short overseas if it only made $88 mill and did fairly well in China?