Weekend Numbers | Weekend Estimates | 120.5M SPIDER-MAN: ATSV | 40.6M TLM | 12.3M THE BOOGEYMAN | 10.2M GOTG III

[titanic2187]

12 minutes ago, screambaby said:

Well we can blame racists incels and whatever but the fact is TLM dropped 58 percent which means out of ts target audience more then half either didn't go back or didn't go back often.

 

300 domestic is almost out of the question unless im way off. At a budget of 250 million and a disappointing international take this is gonna be a flop.

-58% isn't much worse than Aladdin's 2nd weekend 53% , especially coming off from inflated holiday OW. In fact, -58% is better than 90% of the movie that opened to above $50m nowadays.  I can never understand how people can describe TLM's domestic performance as bad, they perform right in line. The real "culprit" of the flop is overseas numbers which deserve no defense.  

[M37]

17 minutes ago, screambaby said:

300 domestic is almost out of the question unless im way off.

We’ll see what next weekend brings, but think you’re way off. A -47% Sat/Sat vs -42.5% for Aladdin isn’t that far off. It may not let out “well”, but should easily clear $300M

Edited June 4, 2023 by M37

[Liiviig 1998]

Supposing it makes 3* second weekend is gets it to around 270m with current os markets . 300m os depends on how Japan does .

 

Domestic should be enough for it to get to 600m . Should be mildly profitable for Disney but yeah think the era of gaining much from live action remakes is done . Gonna have to start cutting those budgets .

 

If snow white has like a 200m budget. It's probably gonna flop .

 

For spiderverse thinking 650m+ WW.

 

 

 

[Valonqar]

Also a reminder that OS numbers tend to go up with actuals. So look out for that re: ATSV and TLM. 

[John Marston]

that overseas number for Spider-Man verse doesn't seem that impressive no? Guess animated Spider-Man just doesn't connect as much overseas

[grim22]

2 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Also a reminder that OS numbers tend to go up with actuals. So look out for that re: ATSV and TLM. 

This isn't a thing. OS numbers go down just as often as they go up with actuals.

[jedijake]

17 minutes ago, druv10 said:

Not sure what are you talking about, it held just slightly worse than Aladdin (53.2% vs 57.5%) which faced off against 47M+ OW while TLM was against 120M+. Drops are not that dissimilar when taking into account competition. Next week, with only Transformers opening hold should be significantly better. 300M is definitely still on the table, I'm thinking at the moment TLM finishes between 315-320M DOM. With no direct competition for it's demo over the next month, closest would be Elemental, which in it's own right could flop or worse. I'm expecting strong legs through the summer.

 

OS it dropped only 34%, with great holds in Europe which tends to be leggy compared to other markets. Latin America has been playing pretty well as well. Japan has yet to open so we'll see what happens. 600M WW isn't out of the question.

$300 million is pretty much guaranteed, probably by the first weekend of July. $320 million is likely. $330 million has a pretty good shot. $340 million is possible, depending on the holds from here out.

Edited June 4, 2023 by jedijake

[ogkalu]

12 minutes ago, AN9815 said:

The thing is, can the markets that the movie is holding up fine or close to Aladdin take the movie to +$600m WW?

Assuming Dom is 300m+ which it basically will be then definitely enough gas there to hit 600m+ even if Japan is a no show. 

[AN9815]

2 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Domestic should be enough for it to get to 600m . Should be mildly profitable for Disney but yeah think the era of gaining much from live action remakes is done . Gonna have to start cutting those budgets .

 

They also don't have many remakes left. Hercules can do great if it's as fun as Aladdin. Hunchback and maybe Tarzan can do well if budgets are not insanely high. Lilo & Stitch is going directly to Disney+ and I doubt they even touch Pocahontas. Moana will likely be a massive hit tho, and will start the trend of the 2010s Disney remakes.

[JohnnyGossamer]

23 minutes ago, screambaby said:

Well we can blame racists incels and whatever but the fact is TLM dropped 58 percent which means out of ts target audience more then half either didn't go back or didn't go back often.

 

300 domestic is almost out of the question unless im way off. At a budget of 250 million and a disappointing international take this is gonna be a flop.

Huh? It's essentially the same drop as Aladdin. The primary reason being there was a 120M+ OW DOM opener (Aladdin didn't face this) and it lost most/all PLFs to Across the Spider-Verse. That's a good hold. Most expected a 60%+ drop.

[Valonqar]

Just now, grim22 said:

This isn't a thing. OS numbers go down just as often as they go up with actuals.

 

That's why I say they tend to not that they always do. It's due to underreporting but I agree that it could go either way.

[Liiviig 1998]

3 minutes ago, John Marston said:

that overseas number for Spider-Man verse doesn't seem that impressive no? Guess animated Spider-Man just doesn't connect as much overseas

hasn't opened in some markets. Japan and middle east. But yeah don't see it going much past 300m.

[Willowra]

12 minutes ago, screambaby said:

Would 600 be the break even point?

With around 600M total, it will make a good profit. The break-even formula of 2.5x the total budget doesn't apply to movies that gross very little in China

[Eric S'ennui]

1 hour ago, G Doss said:

The Bad Guys, Legion of Super Pets, Jumanji, Greatest Showman, Mario. Lots of examples of family entertainment with solid legs in the past five years. 

 

I guess we are just supposed to ignore those and, without evidence, say it's different now.

Moderation

 

I didn't want to have to do this, but you left me with no choice. @G Doss has been suspended for two weeks for reaching 10 warning points and directly disobeying moderation orders.

 

As an aside to everybody else, when a staff member asks you to stop something, you stop. No ifs, ands, or buts about it.

[kayumanggi]

 

[WorkingonaName]

2 back to back blockbusters with over half of their money coming from America.

 

[eddyxx]

8 minutes ago, AN9815 said:

They also don't have many remakes left. Hercules can do great if it's as fun as Aladdin. Hunchback and maybe Tarzan can do well if budgets are not insanely high. Lilo & Stitch is going directly to Disney+ and I doubt they even touch Pocahontas. Moana will likely be a massive hit tho, and will start the trend of the 2010s Disney remakes.

This sentence makes me want to die inside. Only thing worst would be live action remakes of Pixar movies or a BTTF remake.

[kayumanggi]

 

[Eric S'ennui]

1 hour ago, baumer said:

 

So serious question here and I'm not trying to undermine your authority but he's a relatively new poster. Joined May 28th and has 14 posts. Is it possible that he just doesn't understand the nuances and intricacies of the box office the way a lot of other people do here?

I've been around the block long enough to know who are new posters who want to learn and don't know any better, and others who seem to exist just to troll. And this G Doss fellow seems very much the latter. Almost all of their posts consist of "grr Disney bad" rhetoric, crying how every Disney movie is an epic bomb int he making, all designed to get people here in a tizzy and angry. We've gotten that quite a bit for the past few years and we don't need this crap here anymore. The choice quote from their first post that got them their first warning ever.

 

Quote

Then Iger turned the company into a radical leftwing propaganda arm that turned off half the country. He bought Fox to find properties that appeal to boys and men and all we got was gender and race ideology. Now that entire demographic that Disney attacked has forever turned its back on them.

 

They also tried to accuse a user for lying when they said a showing for Little Mermaid they were going to was sold out. That is asking to start a fight, because why would anybody lie about that? Simply put, there is nothing that indicates to me this G Doss fellow is interested in the box office world and really just wants to be a troll. Maybe they will change their tune when they are back from their suspension, but we can only hope.

[Issac Newton]

6 minutes ago, Willowra said:

With around 600M total, it will make a good profit. The break-even formula of 2.5x the total budget doesn't apply to movies that gross very little in China

$250M Budget + $100M Marketing = $350M Total

 

Recovery could start once it cross $700M (2x $350M I think) or $875M based on you formula.