Weekend Numbers | Weekend Estimates | 120.5M SPIDER-MAN: ATSV | 40.6M TLM | 12.3M THE BOOGEYMAN | 10.2M GOTG III

[kayumanggi]

4 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

2 back to back blockbusters with over half of their money coming from America.

 

 

Well, the world has been spending on two movies (GOTG III and FAST X) that will make 500M or close to it overseas. That's after MARIO which is now close to 750M overseas.

 

What I am curious though is which will be the next overseas hit.

[Willowra]

1 minute ago, Issac Newton said:

$250M Budget + $100M Marketing = $350M Total

 

Recovery could start once it cross $700M (2x $350M I think) or $875M based on you formula.

You forgot TV revenue of 180M and another 100-140M revenue from home entertainment 

[ThomasNicole]

2 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

$250M Budget + $100M Marketing = $350M Total

 

Recovery could start once it cross $700M (2x $350M I think) or $875M based on you formula.

Marketing was payed with a lot of partnerships i think which helps

[Agafin]

13 minutes ago, Eric 2099 said:

Moderation

 

I didn't want to have to do this, but you left me with no choice. @G Doss has been suspended for two weeks for reaching 10 warning points and directly disobeying moderation orders.

 

As an aside to everybody else, when a staff member asks you to stop something, you stop. No ifs, ands, or buts about it.

Why the hell is someone making (questionable but otherwise inoffensive) comparisons, a ban-worthy offense?

[kayumanggi]

19 minutes ago, John Marston said:

that overseas number for Spider-Man verse doesn't seem that impressive no? Guess animated Spider-Man just doesn't connect as much overseas

 

It did almost 3× the first one's opening overseas. That's a win, imo.

[DAJK]

1 minute ago, Agafin said:

Why the hell is someone making (questionable but otherwise inoffensive) comparisons, a ban-worthy offense?

I’ve had my share of disagreements with decisions from mods (who hasn’t? We’re all just humans doing our best), but I side with @Eric 2099 on this one. Rather than that post being a ban-worthy offence, it seems to be just one in a string of antagonizing posts.

[filmlover]

Past Lives had a bigger opening PTA than most of the awards players from the fourth quarter did last year in just as many theaters (and with arguably less star power attached to it than any of those movies did). Well what do ya know.

[ThomasNicole]

DIS budgets are simply insane, there are many cases of overpriced movies after COVID (I still can’t believe they spent 340M producing Fast X), but as a studio DIS is the one with most consistently absurd budgets.

 

GOTG3 and TLM costs 250M, Elemental costs 200M, Indy costs 300M, Haunted House costs 160M 

 

I’m pretty sure with the reshoots and delays The Marvels probably costs 250-300M and Wish should be 175-200M 

 

It’s just unsustainable at this point, most of these movies could’ve been very successful if they weren’t so overpriced. What baffles me even more is that the movies doesn’t even look that expensive, most of them have poorly or mixed VFX or looks simply dark and unnapelaling. 
 

Instead of just keep firing talented people, they really should be revising how they can make these movies cheaper and also looking actually good. Some of the best looking movies of this year (John Wick, SpiderVerse 2, Oppenheimer, Barbie) all costs 100M to make so is not impossible.

[M37]

12 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

What I am curious though is which will be the next overseas hit.

MI7 most likely, Fallout made $570M internationally 

 

Then probably Meg 2

[TheFlatLannister]

50 minutes ago, screambaby said:

Well we can blame racists incels and whatever but the fact is TLM dropped 58 percent which means out of ts target audience more then half either didn't go back or didn't go back often.

 

300 domestic is almost out of the question unless im way off. At a budget of 250 million and a disappointing international take this is gonna be a flop.

$300M is locked $350M is probably dead 

 

not a great drop, but considering the competition, not a bad drop either 

[John Marston]

14 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Well, the world has been spending on two movies (GOTG III and FAST X) that will make 500M or close to it overseas. That's after MARIO which is now close to 750M overseas.

 

What I am curious though is which will be the next overseas hit.

 

 

Dial of Destiny should do well overseas. Crystal Skull did really good and Last Crusade made nearly 300 million overseas back in 1989

[Issac Newton]

4 minutes ago, M37 said:

Then probably Meg 2

Is Meg 2 considered as Hollywood Movie?

 

 

Edited June 4, 2023 by Issac Newton

[XXR vs XXR]

What kind of WW total are we looking at for GOTG3 after this weekend? Can it surpass GOTG2?

[Flip]

2 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Is Meg 2 considered as Hollywood Movie?

Co-production right?

[Liiviig 1998]

Summer prediction

 

WW 

M17 -900M

GOTG 3- 850M

FAST X -730M

ATSV - 675M

INDY 5 -650M

FLASH -650M

TLM.   - 620-630M

Barbie. - 550M

TR- ROTB -525M

OPPENHEIMER - 500M

MEG 2.     -450M

ELEMENTAL -285M

TMNT -175M

 

DOM

ATSV -375M

GOTG -360M

TLM -330M

MI7 -315M

Barbie -275M

FLASH -245M

INDY.   -230M

OPPENHEIMER -175M

FAST X -150M

ROTB - 145M

MEG 2 - 130M

TMNT -110M

ELEMENTAL -110M

No hard feeling s -100M+

 

 

[titanic2187]

Just now, filmlover said:

Past Lives had a bigger opening PTA than most of the awards players from the fourth quarter did last year in just as many theaters (and with arguably less star power attached to it than any of those movies did). Well what do ya know.

All eyes is now on Asteroid City but I have a feeling that limited release for AC will be quite "wide" for a limited release, instead a single-digit locations. Also, I don't see other studio manage platform release as proper as A24 nowadays.   

[ThomasNicole]

About the numbers themselves, ignoring our knowledge that it could’ve been bigger, ATSV is a phenomenon. It’s always so pleasing to watch movies exploding between sequels (and should be a reminder for studios that sometimes insisting on a franchise after a first movie that didn’t really had amazing numbers but is beloved could pay off). OS numbers didn’t catch up the extreme jump DOM had but still way bigger than the previous, if everything goes right i think +400M DOM / +700M WW is reasonable. 
 

TLM drop is pretty decent and is a solid sign that 320-330M is likely happening. The impressive thing about it tho is the 37% OS drop, the numbers obviously aren’t big but if Japan don’t disappoint completely 300M OS and +600M WW is still very much in play. 
 

Guardians still doing very well but obviously the punches of big movies in a roll is preventing it from reaching it’s full potential. Still, 360-365M DOM and ~850M WW is a great result considering how it was looking before the release. 
 

Fast X is a major disappointment, no way to spin it. It just looks like sub 150M DOM and sub 750M WW to me. Good result on it’s own but the insane budget can’t be ignored. I expect this along with Elemental and Indy 5 will be the top 3 major disappointments of the summer and 2 of them mostly because of overpriced productions, bizarre.

[M37]

25 minutes ago, Agafin said:

Why the hell is someone making (questionable but otherwise inoffensive) comparisons, a ban-worthy offense?

Here’s what I’d say: there’s a very small window of plausibility where person acting in good faith would know enough about box office to immediately pull a post-Memorial Day weekend Disney movie as a comp (and even where to find that info!), but not enough to understand why reaching back 20 years to compare second week drops is problematic 

 

And the ban was for accumulation of warning points - 10 in only a week! - not a single conversation/comment. The most logical conclusion is that said person is not acting in good faith, only trolling to “prove” that TLM’s BO$ is being coddled in some fashion 

Edited June 4, 2023 by M37

[kayumanggi]

5 minutes ago, M37 said:

MI7 most likely, Fallout made $570M internationally 

 

Then probably Meg 2

 

I'm hoping one of the June releases will make it. From FAST X to MI7 is a long gap.

[Issac Newton]

3 minutes ago, Flip said:

Co-production right?

 

 

 

I don't get that "Co-production" meaning 😓