Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.

[kayumanggi]

 

[CoolioD1]

honestly blue beetle is my latest trailer enemy it's one i keep seeing and i'm sick of it. i know i'm gonna keep seeing it for all the big movies the next two months. even if i see asteroid city next week they'll probably put it in front of that too.

[KP1025]

Disney should advertise at minimum a 6-month theatrical exclusivity for their major films to disincentivize subscribers (particularly families) from just waiting to watch at home for free. Until they do, I'm afraid none of their animated films will come close to realizing their potential at the box office. 

[Shawn Robbins]

$9.7M official Flash previews

[AJG]

1 minute ago, KP1025 said:

Disney should advertise at minimum a 6-month theatrical exclusivity for their major films to disincentivize subscribers (particularly families) from just waiting to watch at home for free. Until they do, I'm afraid none of their animated films will come close to realizing their potential at the box office. 

Strange World flopped on Disney+ too. This Disney+ theory is nonsense.

Edited June 16, 2023 by AJG

[kayumanggi]

Just now, KP1025 said:

Disney should advertise at minimum a 6-month theatrical exclusivity for their major films to disincentivize subscribers (particularly families) from just waiting to watch at home for free. Until they do, I'm afraid none of their animated films will come close to realizing their potential at the box office. 

 

Disney still doesn't get it.

[kayumanggi]

 

[John Marston]

Ouch not even 10m

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, Into the Legion-Verse said:

Cmon you can’t seriously believe that Marvels won’t have a massive majority of PLFs when it opens

Think we’ll get something like Matrix/Spider-Man in which Spider-Man got the PLFs but Matrix kept IMAX with Dune and The Marvels as I’m pretty sure Denis has a Nolan like deal with them.

[ringedmortality]

EC overestimated again lol

[XXR & Friends]

Expected $100M DOM Openers

 

2023

The Marvels
 

2024

Beyond the Spider-Verse 

Deadpool 3

Mufasa: The Lion King

Captain America: Brace New World

Joker: Folie a Deux

Thunderbolts

 

2025

Fantastic Four 

Superman Legacy

MCU Spider-Man 4

The Batman Pt. 2

Avatar 3

 

———
 

Potential $100M DOM Openers

 

2023

Aquaman 2

 

2024

Kung Fu Panda 4

Snow White

Inside Out 2

MI:DR - Pt. 2

Despicable Me 4 (opens on Wednesday but the weekend could still do it ala Mario)

 

2025

Blade 

How to Train Your Dragon (LA)

Moana (LA)

 

NOTE: Just my personal thoughts right now. Might have missed some films with all the date shuffling.

 

[AJG]

2 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

honestly blue beetle is my latest trailer enemy it's one i keep seeing and i'm sick of it. i know i'm gonna keep seeing it for all the big movies the next two months. even if i see asteroid city next week they'll probably put it in front of that too.

THIS AINT WHAT YOU WANT! THIS AINT WHAT YOU WANT!!!!
 

[ringedmortality]

Just now, XXRkham Asylum said:

 

2024

Beyond the Spider-Verse 

Deadpool 3

Mufasa: The Lion King

Captain America: Brace New World

Joker: Folie a Deux

Thunderbolts

 

Over-estimating the appeal of those MCU movies imo.

[Rebeccas]

So... sub-60m OW?

[KP1025]

7 minutes ago, AJG said:

Strange World flopped on Disney+ too. This Disney+ theory is nonsense.

 

Strange World very likely would have flopped pre Disney+ too given its audience scores. But something like Encanto would have done far better at the box office without it being advertised as dropping on Disney+ just a month after.

Edited June 16, 2023 by KP1025

[titanic2187]

2 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Only a nostalgic meme fit this nostalgic driven attempt. 

[Skim Beeble]

Only $200k higher than Eternals. Fewer admissions too with an earlier start time. To say WB is not pleased with these results is probably a massive understatement. Idk why I chose Eternals as a comparison but that's what instantly came to mind.

[Coneilg93]

Yikes. 

6 minutes ago, Shawn said:

$9.7M official Flash previews

 

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

8 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Competition definitely hitting the legs, is $30m still on the table this weekend?

[Legion Again]

15 minutes ago, Shawn said:

$9.7M official Flash previews

 

On 6/10/2023 at 6:10 AM, Into the Legion-Verse said:

  my t-7 thoughts in grid form:

Legion Flash OW ForecastMatrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$8.85	$9.20	$9.55	$9.90	$10.25	$10.60	$10.95	$11.30	$11.65
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	5.4	$47.79	$49.68	$51.57	$53.46	$55.35	$57.24	$59.13	$61.02	$62.91
	5.6	$49.56	$51.52	$53.48	$55.44	$57.40	$59.36	$61.32	$63.28	$65.24
	5.8	$51.33	$53.36	$55.39	$57.42	$59.45	$61.48	$63.51	$65.54	$67.57
	6	$53.10	$55.20	$57.30	$59.40	$61.50	$63.60	$65.70	$67.80	$69.90
	6.2	$54.87	$57.04	$59.21	$61.38	$63.55	$65.72	$67.89	$70.06	$72.23
	6.4	$56.64	$58.88	$61.12	$63.36	$65.60	$67.84	$70.08	$72.32	$74.56
	6.6	$58.41	$60.72	$63.03	$65.34	$67.65	$69.96	$72.27	$74.58	$76.89
	6.8	$60.18	$62.56	$64.94	$67.32	$69.70	$72.08	$74.46	$76.84	$79.22
	7	$61.95	$64.40	$66.85	$69.30	$71.75	$74.20	$76.65	$79.10	$81.55

 

On 6/12/2023 at 5:33 PM, Into the Legion-Verse said:

T-3

Legion Flash OW ForecastMatrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$8.50	$8.80	$9.10	$9.40	$9.70	$10.00	$10.30	$10.60	$10.90
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	5.4	$45.90	$47.52	$49.14	$50.76	$52.38	$54.00	$55.62	$57.24	$58.86
	5.6	$47.60	$49.28	$50.96	$52.64	$54.32	$56.00	$57.68	$59.36	$61.04
	5.8	$49.30	$51.04	$52.78	$54.52	$56.26	$58.00	$59.74	$61.48	$63.22
	6	$51.00	$52.80	$54.60	$56.40	$58.20	$60.00	$61.80	$63.60	$65.40
	6.2	$52.70	$54.56	$56.42	$58.28	$60.14	$62.00	$63.86	$65.72	$67.58
	6.4	$54.40	$56.32	$58.24	$60.16	$62.08	$64.00	$65.92	$67.84	$69.76
	6.6	$56.10	$58.08	$60.06	$62.04	$64.02	$66.00	$67.98	$69.96	$71.94
	6.8	$57.80	$59.84	$61.88	$63.92	$65.96	$68.00	$70.04	$72.08	$74.12
	7	$59.50	$61.60	$63.70	$65.80	$67.90	$70.00	$72.10	$74.20	$76.30

 

Edit: FWIW you can take the penultimate values on each direction of each axis as my 80% credence interval

 

On 6/15/2023 at 4:05 AM, Into the Legion-Verse said:

 

My overall impression at T-1:

Legion Flash OW ForecastMatrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$8.75	$9.00	$9.25	$9.50	$9.75	$10.00	$10.25	$10.50	$10.75
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	5.275	$46.16	$47.48	$48.79	$50.11	$51.43	$52.75	$54.07	$55.39	$56.71
	5.45	$47.69	$49.05	$50.41	$51.78	$53.14	$54.50	$55.86	$57.23	$58.59
	5.625	$49.22	$50.63	$52.03	$53.44	$54.84	$56.25	$57.66	$59.06	$60.47
	5.8	$50.75	$52.20	$53.65	$55.10	$56.55	$58.00	$59.45	$60.90	$62.35
	5.975	$52.28	$53.78	$55.27	$56.76	$58.26	$59.75	$61.24	$62.74	$64.23
	6.15	$53.81	$55.35	$56.89	$58.43	$59.96	$61.50	$63.04	$64.58	$66.11
	6.325	$55.34	$56.93	$58.51	$60.09	$61.67	$63.25	$64.83	$66.41	$67.99
	6.5	$56.88	$58.50	$60.13	$61.75	$63.38	$65.00	$66.63	$68.25	$69.88
	6.675	$58.41	$60.08	$61.74	$63.41	$65.08	$66.75	$68.42	$70.09	$71.76

Deal 🤝

Edited June 16, 2023 by Into the Legion-Verse