Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.

[Bobzaruni]

6 minutes ago, M37 said:

Fwiw, and know others have midpoint lower, I’m still sitting on a ~6.5x IM expectation. Something like +80%/+7%/-5% 

 

If preview does indeed come in at $10M+, wouldn’t rule out $70M+ on high end just yet

What're you thinking for the IM of Elemental? It feels like could be literally anything at this point

[Pinacolada]

I'm hoping for a surprise for The Blackening. Apparently it's actually pretty good. Only 1800 theaters tho

[AJG]

4 minutes ago, CrashBandicoot81 said:

I'm not sure if it is Disney movies are becoming stale to the GA, They are appealing more to Disney Adults than kids, or if it is better to wait for Disney PLus or the combination of all 3. But Elemental is just another sign that the Disney Brand certainly isn't as strong as it used to be.

 

Lightyear should have been a fun campy homage to 90s action  and sci-fi movies that i can see Andy loving, not this weirdly dark and grim thing that it turned out to be. It is like it was made for Disney Adults if you know what i am saying.

 

Original animated movies are DOA right now and Disney keeps spending $200m on them. Sony have gone far enough to sell all their original toons straight to Netflix. They sold another just a couple of weeks ago. 
 

 

[PlatnumRoyce]

1 minute ago, ZeroHour said:

At least Flash underperforming probably saves us from other studios copying this movie's promotional campaign. Had this movie actually gone over $100M we probably would've had to hear Bob Iger declare that The Marvels was the Godfather of super hero films at the next Disney earnings call, Sony would be leaking to the Hollywood Reporter that Tom Hanks just can't get enough of Kraven the Hunter, and James Patterson would be tweeting that he doesn't normally like these kinds of film but Aquaman 2 made him cry.

On the other hand, this is a cheap form of marketing. What if, instead of Kraven, you said Bullet Train or something like Widows? 

[Willowra]

SM4 might release in june 2025 so count the number of flops that will release close to it.

[CJohn]

2 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

I'm hoping for a surprise for The Blackening. Apparently it's actually pretty good. Only 1800 theaters tho

Lionsgate Lionsgating. Worst studio ever.

1 minute ago, AJG said:

 

Original animated movies are DOA right now and Disney keeps spending $200m on them. Sony have gone far enough to sell all their original toons straight to Netflix. They sold another just a couple of weeks ago. 
 

 

The writing is on the wall. The people want known IP.

[TomThomas]

22 minutes ago, XXRkham Asylum said:

Current evaluation for THE FLASH

 

57-66 DOM OW

70-90 INT Opening 

2.5-2.8 multiplier 

~320-440 WW

So there's a good chance it'll dip below 400 mln?

[Pinacolada]

5 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Lionsgate Lionsgating. Worst studio ever.

 

Yeah it's a shame. That movie legitimately feels like it could've easily done well like just a couple years ago, before the pandemic. Could easily attract in Black audiences, but it feels like Lionsgate has done less than the bare minimum for it. It's a $5m budget..... Should be a pretty easy win for them...

 

I'd be happy with a debut of $5m+, but it could easily do better if they tried. 1800 theaters is unbelievable 

Edited June 16, 2023 by Pinacolada

[toutvabien]

Just realized that The Marvels could have the worst sequel opening weekend drop in the MCU and still be the highest opening CBM this year.

[TomThomas]

6 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Lionsgate Lionsgating. Worst studio ever.

No. There are worse.

[Willowra]

1 minute ago, toutvabien said:

still be the highest opening CBM this year.

Nope it won't be

[M37]

8 minutes ago, Bobzaruni said:

What're you thinking for the IM of Elemental? It feels like could be literally anything at this point

Stating with a Super Pets like around 11x, maybe a bit higher or lower. Summer Thursday with 3pm start, general weakness in Disney family product, just don’t see the 12-14x some people have thrown out, even with Father’s Day/Juneteenth Sun bump. So probably sub-$30M if preview comes in the mid-$2M range tracking spit out 

[wildphantom]

Original animated movies are not DOA. lol. 
People would always show up for an original Disney and Pixar film to huge numbers. They still would have if Disney+ didn’t exist to derail half of them. 
 

Absolutely nothing to do with a lack of interest in new animated films whatsoever. 

[Johnny Tran]

58 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

You know what? Fuck everything. I'll do one better:

 

Guardians 3>Shazam 2+Flash+Blue Beetle combined worldwide.

 

I genuinely can't think of a brand more toxic and dead than DC right now. I can't help but feel like hyping this movie up so much is going to bite James Gunn in the ass hard when Superman Legacy is ready for release. They need to scrub any and all references to the DC name from that movie's marketing if they want it to even break even.

 

These are the types of terrible hyperbolic posts I was expecting lol.   WB had to try to get some money out of these things, it has zero to do with Gunn's Superman and the reboot.  The Batman did great on its own. 

[AJG]

14 minutes ago, CJohn said:

The writing is on the wall. The people want known IP.

There’s still no quick $100m X-Men cartoon. No Star Wars cartoon. Look at live-action even: an adult R-rated Hannah Montana sequel at $20m-30m, through Fox, could pick up a lot of interest.

[Future Foundation]

4 hours ago, Madhuvan said:

So I have been inactive for while and idk if I should say this or not

 

But I am actually glad Flash is being not received well. 

Hollywood tried it level best to save another man just like they always do , calling it best superhero movie of all time and what not. 

 

I am glad it's not working this time. 

 

[Johnny Tran]

41 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

 

The thing is, Batman is an institution all of his own, independent of the larger DC brand. And even then, I'd argue that movie suffered because of how badly audiences were burned on Zack Snyder's Batman.

 

How did the movie suffer?  It made $770M in a 45-day window. If they hadn't put it on Max early, you are looking at an even bigger number and not many recent comic book movies have gotten that far.  

[Eric Furiosa]

21 minutes ago, AJG said:

 

Original animated movies are DOA right now and Disney keeps spending $200m on them. Sony have gone far enough to sell all their original toons straight to Netflix. They sold another just a couple of weeks ago. 
 

 

 

19 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Lionsgate Lionsgating. Worst studio ever.

The writing is on the wall. The people want known IP.

Welcome to the dark side. You have been enlightened when it comes to our current n*stalgic t*y c*mmercial conundrum

[Eric Furiosa]

1 hour ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

You know what? Fuck everything. I'll do one better:

 

Guardians 3>Shazam 2+Flash+Blue Beetle combined worldwide.

 

I genuinely can't think of a brand more toxic and dead than DC right now. I can't help but feel like hyping this movie up so much is going to bite James Gunn in the ass hard when Superman Legacy is ready for release. They need to scrub any and all references to the DC name from that movie's marketing if they want it to even break even.

Moderation

 

We do not need this hyperbolic nonsense that only seems to be done to troll and bait others. Do this again, and you will see a threadban.

[filmlover]

16 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

Yeah it's a shame. That movie legitimately feels like it could've easily done well like just a couple years ago, before the pandemic. Could easily attract in Black audiences, but it feels like Lionsgate has done less than the bare minimum for it. It's a $5m budget..... Should be a pretty easy win for them...

 

I'd be happy with a debut of $5m+, but it could easily do better if they tried. 1800 theaters is unbelievable 

Sub-2,000 theater count has been the norm for movies heavily targeted towards black audiences (especially ones that have zero star power behind them like this does) since forever. Even Tyler Perry's movies would open in the lower 2,000+ area during the peak of their popularity for the strong PTAs.

Edited June 16, 2023 by filmlover