Weekend Thread | July 7-9 | Weekend Estimates on Page 32

[M37]

Also, why are we getting budget/bombing articles in weekend 2? Indy had a fairly standard week 2 drop, not crashing like Flash - this result has been known for a couple of weeks now

 

Just seems a lot of people are eager to use it as a punching bag, guess some missed their opportunity with holiday weekend

[Boxx93]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinereid/2023/07/01/disney-reveals-doctor-strange-2-cost-100-million-more-than-its-estimated-budget/

 

Doctor Strange 2 cost 100 million more than what was initially reported according to Forbes, I won't be surprised if it happens the same with Indy 5

[MovieMan89]

13 minutes ago, M37 said:

Also, why are we getting budget/bombing articles in weekend 2? Indy had a fairly standard week 2 drop, not crashing like Flash - this result has been known for a couple of weeks now

 

Just seems a lot of people are eager to use it as a punching bag, guess some missed their opportunity with holiday weekend

You’re kidding right? You realize 350 or so ww is maybe the best Indy can hope for given upcoming comp and where the gross already is, and it had a budget of 300m?? Just check out the list of biggest box office bombs on wiki and sort by amount of estimated loss and you will see Indy is very obviously on track to be top 5 with this performance. A solid 100m+ loss at the very least, based on everything we have to go off of on movie profitability rules at the box office anyways. 
 

The point being, of course trades are bound to report on such a spectacle of a franchise juggernaut crash when it did nothing this weekend to indicate it might really course correct and not be so bad after all. 

Edited July 10, 2023 by MovieMan89

[baumer]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

You’re kidding right? You realize 350 or so ww is maybe the best Indy can hope for given upcoming comp and where the gross already is, and it had a budget of 300m?? Just check out the list of biggest box office bombs on wiki and sort by amount of estimated loss and you will see Indy is very obviously on track to be top 5 with this performance. A solid 100m+ loss at the very least, based on everything we have to go off of on movie profitability rules at the box office anyways. 

 

I think everybody understands that Indy is a colossal bomb. I simply think the poster is saying that a second weekend drop of 55% is hardly astonishing or outlandish. It's actually pretty good.

[ThomasNicole]

400M for Elemental is locked imo 

 

At 252M WW, it should get to ~300M with just what US have left to give 

 

Without UK, it did +26M OS with a tiny 10% drop this weekend. Even considering the strong competition, Elemental will be still the only real family movie so it should manage to keep screens. I think it will do another 80-85M with the current markets alone.

 

So +380M and still have the UK run to go which should be strong considering it opened well already, and still Japan and Spain (?) to open. 
 

I think 420-ish is very likely at this point. It can even try +450M, it depends on how high Korea can go which is still uncertain and if Japan will embrace it.

Edited July 10, 2023 by ThomasNicole

[ListenHunnyUrOver]

14 minutes ago, M37 said:

Also, why are we getting budget/bombing articles in weekend 2? Indy had a fairly standard week 2 drop, not crashing like Flash - this result has been known for a couple of weeks now

 

Just seems a lot of people are eager to use it as a punching bag, guess some missed their opportunity with holiday weekend

People tried to be optimistic after weekend 1, but now it’s looking dire based on MI7 and Barbenheimer coming to stomp on Indy. 

[Mulder]

Indy's a bomb no matter what but its drop this weekend was better than I think quite a few people expected. If international was stronger and the budget was lower it'd be alright I think but we don't live in that world. I don't think it's anywhere near as much of an insane one for the ages as Flash though.

[TwoMisfits]

12 minutes ago, Boxx93 said:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinereid/2023/07/01/disney-reveals-doctor-strange-2-cost-100-million-more-than-its-estimated-budget/

 

Doctor Strange 2 cost 100 million more than what was initially reported according to Forbes, I won't be surprised if it happens the same with Indy 5

 

Damn, that was a lotta extra money for Covid...

[ThomasNicole]

Insanely good for Insidious as well, i don’t think it will have awful legs tbh (with awful I mean sub 2x).
 

Yeah a C+ on Cinemascore is horrible but the previous one got a similarly awful B- and didn’t crash. 
 

With 65M opening, i think 150M is achievable, insanely stable franchise over the decade. 
 

And personally i found the movie quite decent. I mean it’s a 5/10 so it’s not good, but still have it’s moments, I find it more watchable than chapters 3 and 4. I think the problem is that the other ones was awful but ended better while this one doesn’t have a good payoff at the end which leads to worse perception.

[PlatnumRoyce]

17 minutes ago, Boxx93 said:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinereid/2023/07/01/disney-reveals-doctor-strange-2-cost-100-million-more-than-its-estimated-budget/

 

Doctor Strange 2 cost 100 million more than what was initially reported according to Forbes, I won't be surprised if it happens the same with Indy 5

You should be. DS2's revised budget comes from forbes finding UK tax data and IJ5's number came from The Independent finding that.  

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

According to Mojo, Wedding Crashers failed on 8/11 (27 days), but on Numbers it did not? (both show numbers as estimates though)

[Cap]

3 hours ago, SchumacherFTW said:

So what you're saying is the mods prey upon the tired, weak and hopeless to join their ranks? 😜

[MovieMan89]

42 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

I think everybody understands that Indy is a colossal bomb. I simply think the poster is saying that a second weekend drop of 55% is hardly astonishing or outlandish. It's actually pretty good.

I think there’s continued reports because this was the weekend to prove if it was going to have spectacular WOM and maybe save any face. Honestly, 55% is pretty rough for a blockbuster opening so low with zero new direct comp in its second weekend and that isn’t a super frontloaded CBM/YA, etc genre.

 

There may be a continued infatuation with covering this failure in the media as well since have we ever seen anything like it really? Sure we’ve had the John Carters and Mars Needs Moms that have bombed on this level, but what about iconic juggernaut Hollywood franchises? That’s a much different story. 

[eddyxx]

10 hours ago, LegionGPT said:

Wonder what the speed records are for 50M+ OW to <1M weekend cause I assume flash can do it in 5

Well he is the fastest man alive 

[Kon]

1 hour ago, baumer said:

 

I think everybody understands that Indy is a colossal bomb. I simply think the poster is saying that a second weekend drop of 55% is hardly astonishing or outlandish. It's actually pretty good.

 

I think the focus on Indy is due to the fall in popularity for this franchise.

 

People focus on the big budget. However, even if DoD has half its budget, it would still be difficult to break even.

[Ryan Reynolds]

1 hour ago, Boxx93 said:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinereid/2023/07/01/disney-reveals-doctor-strange-2-cost-100-million-more-than-its-estimated-budget/

 

Doctor Strange 2 cost 100 million more than what was initially reported according to Forbes, I won't be surprised if it happens the same with Indy 5

Hollywood accounting so can claim didn't make a profit 

[Mr Terrific]

1 minute ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Hollywood accounting so can claim didn't make a profit 

This is another reason that creatives and associated fields need to have strong unions. 
Corporations are very willing to have giant profits and then be austere with the workers. Why not argue that the movie cost more than it did if that means none of it goes out in residuals?

[Mulder]

11 minutes ago, Kon said:

 

I think the focus on Indy is due to the fall in popularity for this franchise.

 

People focus on the big budget. However, even if DoD has half its budget, it would still be difficult to break even.

150 times 2.5 is 375. I think Dial of Destiny'll get close to that, even if not exactly. That'd be way better then the current situation. The budget is very much one of the two big reasons.

[MightGuy]

3 hours ago, M37 said:

Also, why are we getting budget/bombing articles in weekend 2? Indy had a fairly standard week 2 drop, not crashing like Flash - this result has been known for a couple of weeks now

 

Just seems a lot of people are eager to use it as a punching bag, guess some missed their opportunity with holiday weekend

Slow news week. Nothing else other than that and an impending strike.

[Spidey Freak]

3 hours ago, M37 said:

Also, why are we getting budget/bombing articles in weekend 2? Indy had a fairly standard week 2 drop, not crashing like Flash - this result has been known for a couple of weeks now

 

Just seems a lot of people are eager to use it as a punching bag, guess some missed their opportunity with holiday weekend

 

56% is a below average drop for a film that opened with such meh numbers and had no tentpole competition take away its PLF screens on its 2nd weekend unlike most other films this summer.