TOM CRUISE LOVES HIS POPCORN. MOVIES. POPCORN: THE WEEKEND THREAD | We are just waiting for Barbenheimer here

[John Marston]

7 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

November - December window looks interesting

 

200M+

Marvels

Aquaman

Dune

Wonka?

Wish?

 

150M+

Migration

Hunger games prequel

 Trolls 3

 

honestly why should Dune make 200m? Don’t see much evidence it had a huge pos theatrical  life and it’s another film that should appeal heavily to the older crowd who are not reliable moviegoers anymore 

Edited July 15, 2023 by John Marston

[Lighthouse]

You can tell now when a big movie is going to underperform by the GP perception of the movie at the time. The movie is not being talked about enough, it feels like it's being irrelevant, it's generating almost no conversations, etc etc. I said on reddit that this was going to flop, and if I had said it here I would've gotten warning points. I had the suspicion that it wasn't something that I was only feeling here in my city/country with the GP paying dust to this movie, but that it was something in general.

And I keep reaffirming myself in believing that people buying tickets because of an actor (big starssss!!! tom cruise!!!) is complete bullsh!t. The general public couldn't care less if actor X or Y is starring in a film when it's time to go to the movies. Same with directors.

Edited July 15, 2023 by Lighthouse

[Eric the Minion]

12 minutes ago, Austin said:

MI2 is laughable. I ironically audibly laughed at how ridiculous the movie was on my first viewing.

But the crazy wackiness is what makes that movie fun!

[baumer]

6 minutes ago, Deathlife said:

 

This is true. I didn't want to believe this before but this summer is suggesting that things have changed.

 

For example, the Bank of Canada has raised rates again. Meaning folks on variable rate loans are paying more than they might have ever paid. Coupled with the high inflation and buying movie tickets is kind of at the bottom of a lot of people's priorities.

 

Audience behavior has changed and a segment of audiences just don't feel the need to rush out to see movies like they did before. Especially as almost everyone is paying for streaming.

 

Not to mention the fact that if you want to rent out an apartment in Toronto or Vancouver a two bedroom is now $3,500 bucks a month. Between paying rent and feeding your family and going to the movies to spend 25 bucks, pretty sure people are going to be choosing to pay rent.

[MovieMan89]

Mission and Opp should have swapped spots. I very likely would have preferred a Barbenpossible huge success to Barbenheimer. 

[Flopped]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

If you say so. I'm just looking at Mojo. 

 

Just for fun, from October 1993: 

 

HOLLYWOOD -- 'Jurrasic Park' has broken the worldwide box office record previously held by 'E.T. -- The Extraterrestrial' by selling more than $704 million in movie tickets during the past four months.

 

Dino-mania has been particularly strong overseas with international grosses of $379 million for the Universal release, along with domestic grosses of $325.7 million.

 

'Films of this stature come along only once in a decade,' said Tom Pollack, chairman of the motion picture group of MCA Inc., Universal's parent. 'The overwhelming popularity of 'Jurassic Park' has made it a cultural phenomenon around the world.'

 

Both 'Jurassic Park' and 'E.T.' were directed by Steven Spielberg and released by Universal, which became part of Matsushita Electric Industrial in early 1991. Spielberg also has 'Jaws' and 'Raiders of the Lost Ark' on the top 10 domestic list.

 

'E.T.' grossed $359.2 million domestically and $281.3 million overseas in its initial 1982 release, and tacked on another $40 million domestically and $20 million overseas during its re-release in 1985 for a combined $701.4 million worldwide.

'Jurassic Park' will probably gross another $5 million to $10 million domestically, leaving it about $65 million short of the domestic record held by 'E.T.'

 

International grosses have been particularly strong in Japan, where Spielberg and dinosaurs are especially popular, with $107.5 million in 79 days. United Kingdom grosses also were impressive with $67.2 million in 80 days.

'Jurassic,' yet to be released in France or Spain, has been grossing more than $15 million a week in Europe, so it could take in another $50 million overseas. It has become the No. 1 all-timer in Japan, the United Kingdom, Hong Kong, Mexico, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand.

 

'Jurassic Park' set domestic records for biggest late-night preview ($3.1 million); biggest three-day opening weekend ($47.1 million); biggest second weekend ($38.5 million); fastest to reach $100 million (10 days) and fastest to reach $200 million (24 days).

 

The film has generally outperformed projections of $270 million domestic gross and $370 million overseas.

 

Consulting firm Paul Kagan Associates, of Monterey, Calif., estimated this summer that over the next three years, 'Jurassic Park' would generate a gross profit of $339 million for Matsushita after subtracting $301 million in expenses -- based on the film generating $640 million in revenues.

 

Kagan also estimated that domestic home video revenues will amount to $225 million; foreign home video will total $49 million; domestic TV rights payments will reach $33 million and foreign TV payments will be $31 million.

 

The 10 top-grossing movies internationally, year of release, total gross:

1. 'Jurassic Park, 1993, $379 million.

2. 'E.T. -- The Extraterrestrial,' 1982, $301.6 million.

3. 'Ghost,' 1990, $290 million.

4. 'The Bodyguard,' 1992, $289 million.

5. 'Pretty Woman,' 1989, $285 million.

6. 'Terminator 2: Judgment Day,' 1991, $263 million.

7. 'Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade,' 1987, $258 million.

8. 'Rain Man,' 1988, $240 million.

9. 'Basic Instinct,' 1992, $235 million.

10. 'Beauty and the Beast,' 1991, $202 million.

[lab276]

12 minutes ago, kswiston said:

Given how long films ran and the staggered global releases back then, it would be pretty hard to figure out if Pretty Woman actually hit 4th WW before Ghost passed it. They were only 3-4 months apart. 

 

That’s a good point actually. Terminator 2 passed it the following year as well. 

[emoviefan]

3 minutes ago, babz06 said:

Yes that was stupid. Especially since he says he wants to continue the MI franchise after DR. People are gonna be real confused probably thinking Part 2 is the last one. 

The Part one would have been fine if Paramount had you know did any real marketing between May of last year and May of this year. Other than the Imax thing in front of WOW.

[MovieMan89]

Lol at Jurassic Park dubbed “once in a decade” in the decade of Titanic.  

[ListenHunnyUrOver]

Where’s the confidence for Hunger Games coming from? The dystopian teen genre declined super fast and it hasn’t been long enough for people to feel super nostalgic about it. 

[Liiviig 1998]

MI2 is the weakest of the series but still alot of fun . Liked way more on rewatch.

 

Thandie newton 😍

[Rainy]

Honestly this is a bit depressing since I really liked Dead Recokning.

 

Are there any positives in its performance? Guess it's doing OK internationally no?

[M37]

16 minutes ago, MightGuy said:

There's a growing gap in the middle of the box office. The hits HIT HARD. But folks used to use their disposable income to maybe see a film that they weren't amazingly hyped for.

 

I think a combination of streaming and a lack of disposable income thanks to economic conditions means folks are willing to wait if it's not checking off their lists with pure 10s.

Yes, that gap is from $225M to $343M domestic* currently 

 

Either a movie has some kind of “it factor” - some combination brand/IP awareness/loyalty, hype, and quality -  vault into those top 2 tiers of grossing potential … or it just doesn’t

 

(*the lone exception is Mermaid, but looking at where the international numbers landed, looks very much like a domestic over performance due to higher share of Black audiences)

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

1 minute ago, ListenHunnyUrOver said:

Where’s the confidence for Hunger Games coming from? The dystopian teen genre declined super fast and it hasn’t been long enough for people to feel super nostalgic about it. 

The movies were popular on Netflix when they streamed there recently, and the trailer was big on TikTok. 

[Cmasterclay]

Dune 2 is most overpredicted of year. Shit HBO Max views, half of MK. Box office was mediocre and people use the HBO Max thing as a crutch - but then how do you explain why it did so shitty there? Trailer views are down and it is a long, dark movie appealing to white audiences.  It brings me no pleasure to report this. Frankly I think the 155 I put may be quite too high.

[Austin]

7 minutes ago, Eric Stickell said:

But the crazy wackiness is what makes that movie fun!

I suppose so? To each their own ig but that movie was something else. Felt like it came out of a 90's action film blender.

[LegionWrex]

1 minute ago, Rainy said:

Honestly this is a bit depressing since I really liked Dead Recokning.

 

Are there any positives in its performance? Guess it's doing OK internationally no?

Not sure about the international numbers outside of SK cause I'm following Elemental there right now. It underperformed a bit in the first day but seems to be picking up there.

[cooldude97]

29 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

No Avengers, Star Wars, or Avatar to save this year after such a terrible summer 

 

Theaters are in trouble if they have to depend on Aquaman 2, Wonka, and The Marvels.

just rerelease Mario in theaters again close to Christmas

[Flopped]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Lol at Jurassic Park dubbed “once in a decade” in the decade of Titanic.  

 

Lol but who could have seen that coming. 

Speaking of JP this is wild to me, 68M people watching when it first aired on TV in 1995: 

 

Even with its successful theatrical run and its availability on home video, “Jurassic Park" still captured a dinosaur-sized portion of the television audience Sunday night. With viewership estimated by NBC at 68.1 million people, it was the highest-rated theatrical film in two years and the most-watched program on TV last week.

[LonePirate]

DR's underperformance is baffling given that it is a high profile film which is exceptionally well received by both critics and audiences and is led by the biggest Hollywood star in the world coming off the beloved and biggest film of his career. The film is tremendously entertaining and its almost three hour runtime feels closer to a single hour. The spectacle of it is worth the price of admission, especially if you love a good, old-fashioned action movie.

 

I wonder if the specter of Barbenheimer is keeping moviegoers at home this weekend because people know they are heading to cinemas next weekend. You might think DR will develop some legs but it won't be for another week or two as it is losing all of its PLFs. Oppenheimer's non-IMAX showings seem pretty sparse and should catch any overflow that would normally opt for DR if people must see the film next weekend and will settle for non-IMAX. 

 

Perhaps it should have released during the second week of April when it would have had PLFs for three weekends and could have co-existed with TSMBM, even if TSMBM would have won their first weekend battle.