The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Shawn Robbins]

THIS POST IS A WORK IN PROGRESS! SOME OF JULY 2023'S POSTS WILL BE MOVED INTO THIS THREAD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS/WEEKS.

 

WE WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE ARCHIVED LINKS PUT TOGETHER BY OTHER MODS AND TRACKERS. PLEASE BE PATIENT WITH US (me especially because I've been promising @Eric we'd (I'd) get to this sooner than we (I) did and that is my fault).

 

The Box Office Buzz, Tracking and Pre-Sale Thread

 

As mentioned earlier this summer, we're starting up a new ticket counting and tracking thread to help ease the stress on the forum database as large topics that are frequently accessed tend to create minor (sometimes bigger) loading issues.

 

We're not starting from scratch, per se, but keeping enough recent content at the start of this thread to see how the forum SEO is impacted overall.

 

We'll also update this post with any relevant info the BOT Think Tank feels should be included as a resource.

 

Please limit conversations in this topic to sharing data points and speculating only on those. If you want to talk about movies in general or share your predictions without any of your data points, please do so in the appropriate movie or weekend/weekday box office topics through the forum.

 

For archival purposes, you can find the previous threads here:

 

And here:

 

(I think we have some that are even older, but those are the most readily available links I have at the moment. If Mods have the others, feel free to link them in this post -- and please PM me if you do make any edits!)

[Eric the IF]

https://deadline.com/2023/06/jim-caviezel-box-office-sound-of-freedom-angel-studios-1235428099/

 

Quote

EXCLUSIVE: We all know post-pandemic that tentpoles work at the box office, but it’s been hit and miss for everything else, especially indies movies. From out of nowhere, Angel Studios’ Sound of Freedom movie about Tim Ballard, a former Homeland Security agent who left the department after he was frustrated with the U.S. rescue efforts with trafficked children in third world countries, is racking up $7.2M in ticket presales before its July 4th opening at 2,626 theaters, sources tell Deadline.

 

lmao what

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, Eric Jones said:

https://deadline.com/2023/06/jim-caviezel-box-office-sound-of-freedom-angel-studios-1235428099/

 

 

lmao what

 

Not insanely surprising. It'll drop super hard but initial demand for these "red blooded American right wing" movies is fairly strong. Same reason those Chosen episodes do so well.

[Eric the IF]

Quorum Updates

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem T-34: 44.32% Awareness

Gran Turismo T-43: 21.88% Awareness

White Bird: A Wonder Story T-57: 11.91% Awareness

The Nun 2 T-71: 28.75% Awareness

Dune Part Two T-127: 33.67% Awareness

The Hunger Games: A Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes T-141: 26.25% Awareness

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny T-1: 61.38% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 93% chance of 50M, 80% chance of 60M, 67% chance of 70M, 47% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 60M, 60% chance of 70M, 40% chance of 100M

 

Ruby Gillman: Teenage Kraken T-1: 30.45% Awareness

Final Awareness: 35% chance of 10M

Animation/Family Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

 

Joy Ride T-8: 30.29% Awareness

Final Awareness: 35% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 25% chance of 10M

 

The Equalizer 3 T-64: 37.23% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 94% chance of 10M, 69% chance of 20M, 44% chance of 30M

Sequel Awareness: 100% chance of 10M

[TwoMisfits]

49 minutes ago, XXR Doom N' Gloom said:

 

Not insanely surprising. It'll drop super hard but initial demand for these "red blooded American right wing" movies is fairly strong. Same reason those Chosen episodes do so well.

 

I have been following Sound of Freedom as the summer's Chosen...it picked a great name for its release date, so that's probably increasing curiosity.  It also helps that it stars Jim Caviezel, who is like the Tom Cruise of these movies.

 

I'd say its 6 day open (with July 4th its opening date) could get up to possibly even $30M...

 

PS - They also got Mira Sorvino for a headlining role, upping its "this is really not a sh&t quality movie" factor...

Edited June 30, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[rebelscum86]

3 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

It’s pretty clear this “Maverick boost” isn’t an actual thing. If it was, early tracking would have picked up on it 

 

also you could say the US tracking it showing a bump if Dead Reckoning plays like Rogue Nation and Fallout, that's 8m x 10IMx3.5legs/.3(its 30/70 Dom/Intl split)= 933m

[MovieMan89]

I don’t expect MI to be a big breakout anymore, but I also don’t expect it will do any worse than Fallout either. Target audience isn’t going to lead to big tracking numbers, and unlike Indy, no reason for the target audience to not care about it. 

[rebelscum86]

41 minutes ago, XXR Doom N' Gloom said:

 

Not insanely surprising. It'll drop super hard but initial demand for these "red blooded American right wing" movies is fairly strong. Same reason those Chosen episodes do so well.

why is a movie about saving kids who have been trafficked right wing?

[TheFlatLannister]

43 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I don’t expect MI to be a big breakout anymore, but I also don’t expect it will do any worse than Fallout either. Target audience isn’t going to lead to big tracking numbers, and unlike Indy, no reason for the target audience to not care about it. 

I'm sorry but I heard this for The Flash and Indy. Both were supposedly going to do much better than the tracking team was anticipating. At some point we have to accept pre-sale tracking is the most accurate metric we have for OW 

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I'm sorry but I heard this for The Flash and Indy. Both were supposedly going to do much better than the tracking team was anticipating. At some point we have to accept pre-sale tracking is the most accurate metric we have for OW 

Anyone who said tracking for Flash didn’t matter was delusional. It’s a CBM of course it matters. Tracking for Indy wouldn’t have mattered much either IF it didn’t get such poor reviews and if people still really cared about this franchise. MI is far more relevant to its target demo today than Indy is. 

[TheFlatLannister]

50 minutes ago, rebelscum86 said:

 

also you could say the US tracking it showing a bump if Dead Reckoning plays like Rogue Nation and Fallout, that's 8m x 10IMx3.5legs/.3(its 30/70 Dom/Intl split)= 933m

China isn't going to put up $180M+ 

 

Fast 8 made $392M in China back in 2017...Fast X made $138M which is a 64% decrease

 

A similar decrease gets Mi7 to ~$65M 

[harrisonisdead]

1 hour ago, rebelscum86 said:

why is a movie about saving kids who have been trafficked right wing?

It wouldn't be if it were as simple as that. But that's the demographic the film is targeting, regardless of its subject. Probably because the film glorifies a man/organization that has come under a lot of scrutiny for being ineffective (or downright corrupt) enough to essentially work against its own mission.

 

In any event, there's probably a reason that the film's lead did promotion for the film at a conspiracy theory conference. Regardless of whether the film itself could be considered "right wing," it's made by people who exist in those circles and are happy to mention the scourge of leftism in the same breath as disavowing trafficking.

[MrPink]

32 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

China isn't going to put up $180M+ 

 

Fast 8 made $392M in China back in 2017...Fast X made $138M which is a 64% decrease

 

A similar decrease gets Mi7 to ~$65M 

 

Tbf, I think F9 also played a part in this decrease. JW:FK -> JW:D is still not exactly a great scenario however.

[Bob Train]

6 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

Tbf, I think F9 also played a part in this decrease. JW:FK -> JW is still not exactly a great scenario however.

JWD had to deal with COVID still being a factor. IIRC Shanghai and Beijing were closed when it opened.

[abracadabra1998]

On 6/27/2023 at 5:33 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Twin Cities Previews:

 

Mission Impossible 7 (T-14):

Day: T-14, T-13	Shows	Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Tuesday: 19 theaters	89	N/A	586	17346	3.38
Monday EA: 6 theaters	7	N/A	358	1372	26.09
TOTALS:	96	N/A	944	18718	5.04

 

Comp: 0.96x Indiana Jones (??) (Averaged b/t total and just Tuesday, per @M37 advice)

 

 

Twin Cities Previews:

 

Mission Impossible 7 (T-11):

Day: T-11, T-10	Shows	Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Tuesday: 19 theaters	89	93	679	17340	3.92
Monday EA: 7 theaters	7	30	388	1372	28.28
TOTALS:	96	123	1067	18712	5.7

 

Comps: 

Total- 1.24x Indiana Jones: $8.93 Million

Just Tuesday Previews- 0.78x Indiana Jones: $5.62 Million

Average (per @M37 advice)- 1.025x Indiana Jones = $7.38 Million

Edited June 30, 2023 by abracadabra1998

[AJG]

1 hour ago, rebelscum86 said:

 

the maverick boost is likely to come in the intl gross which,  we don't have tracking on.

 

 

 

Why? This is the 6th or 7th MI movie. If you haven't seen the previous 5 or 6 movies, why would Top Gun influence you to see this one?

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/23/2023 at 3:30 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alamo Drafthouse

T-8 Saturday

168 Showings

5210

+321

27578

ATP:

14.75

2.465

The Flash T-8

38.69M

0.815

JW Dominion T-8

38.24M

 

T-9 Sunday

144 Showings

3157

+195

23993

ATP:

14.37

2.937

The Flash T-9

45.52M

0.910

JW Dominion T-9

35.12M

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alamo Drafthouse [+7 days of sales]

T-1 Saturday

341 Showings

13006

+7796

47353

ATP:

14.47

1.786	The Flash T-1	28.04M
0.606	Avatar 2 T-1	26.86M

1.708

Ghostbusters T-1

28.09M

 

T-2 Sunday

316 Showings

8640

+5483

43893

ATP:

14.27

1.686	The Flash T-2	26.14M
0.651	Avatar 2 T-2	23.82M

2.300

Ghostbusters T-2

25.11M

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/23/2023 at 3:31 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Emagine Entertainment

T-8 Saturday

234 Showings

561

+52

35628

0.716

The Flash T-8

11.25M

 

T-9 Sunday

227 Showings

232

+23

34432

0.643

The Flash T-9

9.96M

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Emagine Entertainment[+ 7 days of sales]

T-1 Saturday

290 Showings

3911

+3350

40938

1.221

The Flash T-1

19.18M

 

T-2 Sunday

275 Showings

1943

+1711

39403

0.901

The Flash T-2

13.96M

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/23/2023 at 3:33 PM, Inceptionzq said:

MI: Dead Reckoning Part 1 Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

112

2035

5.50%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

174

1519

11.45%

 

Sunday: 43

Monday: 378(+16)

Tuesday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
508	5	22083	2.30%	13	108

 

1.370

Indiana Jones T-18

0.556	JW Dominion T-18	10.01M
2.693	NTTD T-18	16.78M

MI: Dead Reckoning Part 1 Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

141

1979

7.12%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

228

2422

9.41%

 

Sunday: 51(+8)

Monday: 499(+121)

Tuesday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 7 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
686	178	22925	2.99%	13	110

 

1.511

Indiana Jones T-11

10.88M

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/23/2023 at 3:34 PM, Inceptionzq said:

MI: Dead Reckoning Part 1 Alamo Drafthouse

T-18 Tuesday

113 Showings

1528

+82

18222

ATP:

8.56

0.383

Indiana Jones T-18

0.394

JW Dominion T-18

7.09M

 

T-19 Wednesday

116 Showings

537

+42

19615

ATP:

17.30

 

T-20 Thursday

123 Showings

536

+24

20331

ATP:

16.19

 

T-21 Friday

121 Showings

920

+46

20165

ATP:

16.55

0.281	Indiana Jones T-21
0.301	Avatar 2 T-21	10.90M
0.289	JW Dominion T-21	12.02M

 

T-22 Saturday

123 Showings

1085

+51

20842

ATP:

16.20

0.337	Indiana Jones T-22
0.300	Avatar 2 T-22	13.29M
0.340	JW Dominion T-22	15.96M

MI: Dead Reckoning Part 1 Alamo Drafthouse [+7 days of sales]

T-11 Tuesday

116 Showings

2136

+608

18812

ATP:

8.46

 

T-12 Wednesday

116 Showings

824

+287

19615

ATP:

17.16

 

T-13 Thursday

124 Showings

798

+262

20180

ATP:

16.38

 

T-14 Friday

125 Showings

1271

+351

20356

ATP:

16.68

 

T-15 Saturday

127 Showings

1486

+401

21033

ATP:

16.22