The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TwoMisfits]

So, when do the Marvels presales start?  My Cinemarks (including the extra 2 that are in my "region") all have not yet set for the movie.  I'm not sure what they are waiting for...

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, when do the Marvels presales start?  My Cinemarks (including the extra 2 that are in my "region") all have not yet set for the movie.  I'm not sure what they are waiting for...

Hour and a half if I recall correctly.

[Mojoguy]

Marvels presales start today along with the last Tues sales of Eras before release. Also FnaF looking to explode. This shit has FINALLY gotten interesting again!

[TwoMisfits]

But what has set is Taylor and this weekend.  Haven't done this in awhile, but here's the look...

 

PLF local 14 has expanded Taylor now to both PLF screens (from 1) and 20 total showings (7 PLF, 13 reg) - that's up 5 from original presale set.  Not a huge expansion, but had a huge original set.  So, about 5.5 screens total.

 

As for holdovers...

Exorcist - 1+ screen (1 extra late show)

Paw Patrol - 2 screens (but extra morning shows and taken late shows)

Saw X - 1 screen

The Creator - 1 screen

A Haunting in Venice - 1 screen

Hocus Pocus/The Nun 2 - 1 screen

My BFGW - 1 screen

Foreign Films - .5 screens

 

Dropped - Dumb Money, Gran Turismo

 

Non-PLF 12 has increased Taylor from 16 to 19 showings (so just a 3 showing increase, but a huge original set).  About 5 screens,

 

As for holdovers...

Exorcist - 2 screens (I see some of these being taken, especially the morning ones)

Paw Patrol - 1 screen

Saw X - 1 screen

Creator - 1 screen

Nun 2 - 1 screen

A Haunting in Venice - .75 screen

Dumb Money - .5 screen

 

Dropped - Expendables, Equalizer 3, foreign films

 

So, Taylor gets more showings, but not a lot more.  Then again, we've talked about her drawing few walk ups, so it shouldn't be a big deal since it was set so big to start with...

Edited October 10, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[vafrow]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

To keep this on topic, one of the things that potentially could hurt FNAF is the lack of a social media/review bounce.  AIUI reviews allegedly drop day of release and the same for social media reactions.  Note I said day of release as this looks to be after previews had already started for all of the US.

 

Setting aside the potential omens when it comes to quality (PLEASE, this ain't the thread to do it — REALLY!!!), that does mean that there will be a lack of a social media/review bounce that other films saw during their pre-sale runs.

 

Now it is true that every once in a while a film comes along that is legitimately critic proof as well has having its own self-sustaining viral marketing campaign.  Minions 2 and TikTok come to mind for the latter.

 

That being said, if these reports about when the review embargoes are being lifted are accurate, and from some ten minute checks on Twitter they appear to be, then that has a very strong potential to throw a wrench into comps when other films get their various boosts.

 

Just something to keep in mind when it comes to FNAF's pre-sale pattern.

 

(again, every once in a while a film comes along that just breaks normal patterns - just highlighting a very real potential pitfall that may be on the horizon)

 

NB:

 

This does appear to be releasing in some international territories (like the UK) a couple of days before release, so initial social media reactions from Regular Janes and Joes might move the needle a bit as it has for other movies in similar situations.  But that's still pretty darn late into the pre-sale run.

 

I know Canada is more of an after thought, but it's still a pretty strong market overall, and it's still not available for sale up here. I'm starting to think it's going to just get treated as regular sale, meaning that Thursday previews will become available next week, and the full weekend will be available just a few days prior to release.

 

It's just another really puzzling decision for this release, with the review embargo decision and the day and date release.

 

On the review component, what I find most puzzling about the decision to drop them so late is that as a parent of a 10 year old, I can say that a lot of parents of preteens are waiting to get some information to make their decision on whether to allow their kids to watch.

 

Even if reviews are bad, a review would likely give that information. Unless they really made some weird decisions around gore and violence levels, which, would also be weird.

 

I really struggle to understand the plan here on this film. It's not just that Universal doesn't seem to have confidence in the films quality, they seem to operate like they have little confidence in its potential performance, despite everything pointing to it being a big success.

[charlie Jatinder]

6 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Five Nights at Freddy MiniTC2 T-18 Days

Previews - 3825/47496 (184 showings)
 

Comps
1.03x Barbie - $23M

2.61x Oppenheimer - $27M
1.07x Avatar 2 - $18M


LOL.

FNAF MiniTC2 T-17 Days

Previews - 4129/47496 (184 showings)

 

Comps

1.06x Barbie - $23.7M

2.67x Oppenheimer - $28M
1.11x Avatar 2 - $19M
2.35x Eternals - $22M

LOL.

Edited October 10, 2023 by charlie Jatinder

[SpiderByte]

Best of luck to all the insanity that's about to overcome this board in the next 24 hours

[charlie Jatinder]

Taylor Swift MiniTC2 T-4 Days

Friday - 15080/50869 (211 showings)

No comps as none make sense. The pace is bad. The last 7 days are 2/3rd of Oppenheimer.

 

Saturday  - 8918/101040 (396 showings)

[BadOlCatSylvester]

[vafrow]

Marvels did go up for sale on Cineplex and Landmark up here in Canada. With other films not aligning to US sale dates, I wanted to be certain.

 

Surprisingly, it's not playing at every location, including my local one. Maybe it's just timing, but everything went up exactly at 9:00 am, so it's surprising that some locations are left out.

[M37]

On 10/7/2023 at 8:29 AM, M37 said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour T-7 Update

Chart here

As a reminder, these values are compared to final totals for each film, and so can only go up, not down, and have a ballpark ATP Adjustment of +50% for all markets, except Alpha at +40%

Also, while leaving those data points on the chart, I've removed the Drafthouse values from the average, as it appears to be a significant under-index for this title

 

Over the last week there has been nearly zero indication of any acceleration in pace of sales. Not a single sample grew more than 9% in total sales from T-14 to T-7, with many seeing a nearly flat growth rate as compared to the T-21 to T-14 period. That lack of upward trajectory this late is very unusual, and doesn't portend well for much of a shift in the final week (though perhaps the "No refunds" policy is pushing some of the typical mid-range buyers later in the cycle?).

 

At this point, I think its more likely than not that MTC1 stays under 600K at final for Friday (+10% final week = 590K), and barring some major shift in pace, its unlikely these market values come even close to a convergence, which makes determining a precise estimate more difficult.

 

Also concerning: the lack of growth nor acceleration in Saturday sales, where again capacity is far less of limiting factor. That should be a more walk-up friendly sales day by far, so it should at least match Friday (despite nearly double the show volume), but perhaps not by much more, which lowers the IM value off wherever Friday lands. Overall, the forecast has been lowered to reflect the apparent reality that there is limited demand beyond tickets already purchased

 

Swift ERAS Forecast Matrix (T-7)		Friday Opening Day Gross Range
		$33.0	$34.3	$35.5	$36.8	$38.0	$39.3	$40.5	$41.8	$43.0
Fri / Wknd Ratio (IM)	2.30	$75.9	$78.8	$81.7	$84.5	$87.4	$90.3	$93.2	$96.0	$98.9
	2.45	$80.9	$83.9	$87.0	$90.0	$93.1	$96.2	$99.2	$102.3	$105.4
	2.60	$85.8	$89.1	$92.3	$95.6	$98.8	$102.1	$105.3	$108.6	$111.8
	2.75	$90.8	$94.2	$97.6	$101.1	$104.5	$107.9	$111.4	$114.8	$118.3
	2.90	$95.7	$99.3	$103.0	$106.6	$110.2	$113.8	$117.5	$121.1	$124.7
	3.05	$100.7	$104.5	$108.3	$112.1	$115.9	$119.7	$123.5	$127.3	$131.2
	3.20	$105.6	$109.6	$113.6	$117.6	$121.6	$125.6	$129.6	$133.6	$137.6
	3.35	$110.6	$114.7	$118.9	$123.1	$127.3	$131.5	$135.7	$139.9	$144.1
	3.50	$115.5	$119.9	$124.3	$128.6	$133.0	$137.4	$141.8	$146.1	$150.5

 

We're probably still getting the first ever $100M October OW ever, but my confidence in that prospect has definitely lowered

The growth in sales over the last 3 days has been so small, that its not even worth posting the updated the chart; Sacto is the highest at +3.2% (Emagine probably a bit higher, but went negative on last update), and with so little growth, there will be no convergence in values. Average (with Alpha) stands at just over $33M

 

The ERAS tour, at least for Friday but almost the entire weekend, is performing more like an EA show - including an expected over-index at MTC1 - than a regular release with an higher ATP (think Avatar 2).  Interesting ...

 

On 8/31/2023 at 8:25 PM, M37 said:

You actually gave me an idea 💡 with this comment …

 

A plausible comp for Eras Tour OD Friday  and this method (portion of final) might be the Barbie Blow-Out party showings on Wed (I believe we have an estimated final value for that portion?). Similar female heavy massive early sales rush & high ATP, and it’s not really about pace, since capacity will be limited, but rather just about total volume of sales 

 

Other high volume EA shows (Batman, TGM) might also work similarly

On 9/9/2023 at 10:18 AM, M37 said:

This being such a massive pre-sale heavy day of shows is why I brought up the Barbie Blow-Out and big EA shows, because projecting forward is not about pace (ie demand), but simply what showtime and seats people are willing to settle for just go on opening night.  For example, a typical big MCU film increases its Thursday sales by ~44% from T-1 to T-F at MTC1 (and even PLF heavy Oppy still managed +39%), While the Batman and TGM EA shows were only +5% and +14% respectively, and Barbie actually went negative due to >95% capacity and refunds [The MTC1 portion was over $400K btw]

At this point, I'll be a little surprised if Eras can even match TGM's EA pace into Friday. I'm definitely focusing on the upper left quadrant of the forecast matrix in prior post for OW, starting to think under $100M more likely than not

[TwoMisfits]

6 minutes ago, vafrow said:

Marvels did go up for sale on Cineplex and Landmark up here in Canada. With other films not aligning to US sale dates, I wanted to be certain.

 

Surprisingly, it's not playing at every location, including my local one. Maybe it's just timing, but everything went up exactly at 9:00 am, so it's surprising that some locations are left out.

 

It's the 1st Marvel movie that my Cinemark region did not set up nor sell in time for opening presale start.

 

Even now, there's no set.  I'm not sure what is happening, b/c this never happens with an MCU movie.  Maybe holiday staff just didn't get work done this weekend.

 

It's weirder b/c they did set this weekend on their normal schedule (Tuesday morning sets).

[M37]

Quick check on Marvels show sets (for Friday):

• Good number of shows, including 10AMs, in line with a ~$80-$100M OW potential, with plenty of room to add/expand if needed
• Large 3D presence: Every PLF screen (save Dolby) has at 1 daytime show (presumably a Disney mandate), plus a full 3D screen at most locations
• MTC1 looks to be trying to funnel to the higher ATP PLF/3D shows, with IMAX & Dolby locations only offering a single screen in standard format for initial sales (along with 3D). MTC2, MTC3, and non-IMAX MTC1 have far more standard shows available. Will be curious how the MTC1 heavy vs light markets fare in the first few days

Now we just wait for numbers ...

[charlie Jatinder]

Very early but miserable start at MiniTC2. Well under Flash, won't go for GoTG 3 comp.

[Bob Train]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Very early but miserable start at MiniTC2. Well under Flash, won't go for GoTG 3 comp.

Thankfully theaters have FNAF and Taylor Swift to save them from what would otherwise be a disastrously bad Q4

[Relevation]

6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Very early but miserable start at MiniTC2. Well under Flash, won't go for GoTG 3 comp.

We need to make a sworn agreement not to post this to the subreddit

[M37]

4 minutes ago, Relevation said:

We need to make a sworn agreement not to post this to the subreddit

[charlie Jatinder]

MiniTC2 first checks (all roughly 1 hour of sales)

 

Marvels - 136
Spider Verse - 342
GoTG 3 - 730
Ant Man - 1136
BP 2 - 1403 (1 hr 20 mins)

[Skim Beeble]

.

Edited October 10, 2023 by Skim Beeble

[abracadabra1998]

4 minutes ago, Skim Beeble said:

So $17.5m previews are off the table? 

Nothing is off the table after an hour of sales, let’s calm down with the kneejerk reactions