The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vale9001]

2 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour, Opening Friday,southern Ontario, T-19 (early am pull)

 

Total sales:  16,469*

New Sales: 25

Growth from yesterday 0.2%

Matinee Sales on Hold: 5855 across 121 showtimes 

Theatre Count:  50

Showtimes:  94

Total Seats Available for Sale: 24,658

Percentage of seats sold: 66.8%

Tickets per showtime: 175.2

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked:  MTC4

 

One location has a glitch, so I can't pull ths number. I had to play with the numbers tp land an estimate that's potentially undercounting. But, nothing surprising with numbers at this point.

 

I'll be travelling for work this week, so won't be able to pull numbers for a day or so.

 

 

the sales in the area you're tracking are already near to 67%. I don't know how much daily growth you expect when sales are already that big. Easily thhe best seats, especially on imax format, are already sold so most buy tickets for the next days or are waiting for new showings coming. 

Edited September 25, 2023 by vale9001

[M37]

11 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

 

 

good numbers. This is far away to be as frontloaded as someone was thinking some days ago. 

 

Ticket Sales for T-18 for Sacto:

• Strange MoM = 176 (+1.86%)
• Thor L&T = 196 (+3.45%)
• BPWF = 114 (+1.81%)
• AMWQ = 119 (+2.85%)
• GOTG3 = 90 (+2.75%)
• Swift ERAS = 59 (+0.76%)

I'm not sure exactly what or to whom your comment was referring, so to repeat: this is the most frontloaded presale track seen post-COVID, and probably ever

 

Maybe this week I'll start working up the chart, and it will show a constant decline against every comp

[SpiderByte]

Id assume it's referring to me, who's pointed out numerous times that concert movies are often very frontloaded

[Eric Lasagna]

 

New York will obviously be a bigger market than usual for this, but still found this neat.

[abracadabra1998]

17 minutes ago, Eric Ross said:

 

New York will obviously be a bigger market than usual for this, but still found this neat.

This is my most anticipated release of the year by far so do not expect objective analysis of whatever numbers I post on here 😈😈

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, vale9001 said:

 

the sales in the area you're tracking are already near to 67%. I don't know how much daily growth you expect when sales are already that big. Easily thhe best seats, especially on imax format, are already sold so most buy tickets for the next days or are waiting for new showings coming. 

 

It's actually the opposite with respect to IMAX. The IMAX shows are only at 40%, and that's with all IMAX shows being in the prime 7:00 pm slot give or take. No late shows to bring the average down.

 

The IMAX shows were added around day 2 or 3. Because the surge of demand happened in the first 48 hours, those shows are lagging a lot.

 

 

[Krissykins]

6 hours ago, Eric Ross said:

Quorum Updates

Dumb Money T-4: 26.79% Awareness

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour T-18: 42.6%

What Happens Later T-39: 15.34%

Migration T-88: 22.27%

The Color Money T-91: 32.41%

Mean Girls: The Musical T-109: 20.23%

 

The Creator T-4: 30.48% Awareness

Final Awareness: 35% chance of 10M, 2% chance of 20M

Medium Awareness: 43% chance of 10M

 

Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie T-4: 38.61% Awareness

Final Awareness: 35% chance of 10M

Animation/Family Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

 

Saw X T-4: 44.12% Awareness

Final Awareness: 87% chance of 10M, 57% chance of 20M, 33% chance of 30M, 20% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 83% chance of 20M, 33% chance of 40M

 

The Exorcist: Believer T-11: 44.1% Awareness

Final Awareness: 87% chance of 10M, 57% chance of 20M, 33% chance of 30M, 20% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 83% chance of 20M, 33% chance of 40M

Great awareness scores for Saw X and Exorcist. Especially Exorcist as it still has another week. 

[vafrow]

2 hours ago, Eric Ross said:

 

New York will obviously be a bigger market than usual for this, but still found this neat.

 

I've got Killers of ths Flower Moon up on MTC4 as well.

 

Not sure when it went up, but downtown Toronto IMAX location is the only one with significant activity (24 seats sold). Looking at other prime locations, and it's the odd pair of seats or so.

Edited September 25, 2023 by vafrow

[Bob Train]

Exorcist will make $50m OW. Book it.

[vale9001]

3 hours ago, M37 said:

Ticket Sales for T-18 for Sacto:

• Strange MoM = 176 (+1.86%)
• Thor L&T = 196 (+3.45%)
• BPWF = 114 (+1.81%)
• AMWQ = 119 (+2.85%)
• GOTG3 = 90 (+2.75%)
• Swift ERAS = 59 (+0.76%)

I'm not sure exactly what or to whom your comment was referring, so to repeat: this is the most frontloaded presale track seen post-COVID, and probably ever

 

Maybe this week I'll start working up the chart, and it will show a constant decline against every comp

 

yeah and not frontloaded as someone was pointing out some days ago.  After insane first days sales these sales means there is still a big potential market. I meant that. 

 

 

also for example Doctor strange opened pre sales 30 days before the movie, the eras tour 45 days before the movie, so the daily growth from day 20 to day 19 is not that fair imo. 

Edited September 25, 2023 by vale9001

[filmlover]

Maybe I'm missing something but doesn't Flower Moon essentially have IMAX/Dolby screens until The Marvels? Unless one or both of Five Nights at Freddy's or Priscilla are getting last minute large format releases.

[Youngstar]

9 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Maybe I'm missing something but doesn't Flower Moon essentially have IMAX/Dolby screens until The Marvels? Unless one or both of Five Nights at Freddy's or Priscilla are getting last minute large format releases.

Pretty sure the eras tour gets at least most of those on the weekends (no idea what about the rest of the week)

[SpiderByte]

I can't imagine FNAF going IMAX and hybrid

[Mojoguy]

20 minutes ago, Youngstar said:

Pretty sure the eras tour gets at least most of those on the weekends (no idea what about the rest of the week)

Killers is getting full IMAX, the contracts with IMAX are iron tight and they secured IMAX first. Besides, no one is watching a near 4 hour movie on the weekdays.

 

Besides, Eras is going to be a one weekend wonder. They should have opened a week earlier if they wanted to get at least 2 full weeks of IMAX.

Edited September 25, 2023 by Mojoguy

[jeffthehat]

On 9/22/2023 at 8:27 AM, jeffthehat said:

 

Eras Malco Theaters T-21 

 

Theater count - 24

Show count - 105 

Seats sold - 5550

Total seats - 17595

% sold - 31.5%

New sales - 151 (+2.8%)

3-day average of new sales - 50.3 tickets/day

 

Looking forward, I see this finishing anywhere between 7000-10k tickets sold at T-1. After walkups I think 10k+ is likely. Should finish around 50% capacity, I think. Can't see it doing worse nationwide (will likely be better)

 

Assuming there are 24k-28k shows nationwide at final, that puts OD range at $42m-$49m on 50% capacity. 

 

From there I'm expecting a multi a little better than the BTS movie in February (3.7x) due to spillover from full Fri shows. So I'm sticking with $155m-$205m OW range. 

 

Also, think you need to be cautious looking at pace of comps at this point. It's a different genre with no precedent. Lack of promo and no refunds could be pushing demand closer to release date. No way to tell. 

 

 

 

Eras Malco Theaters T-18

 

Theater count - 24

Show count - 105

Seats sold - 5661

Total seats - 17595

% sold - 32.2%

New sales - 111 (+2%)

3-day average of new sales - 37 tickets/day

Growth since T-37 (start of tracking) - 1132 (+25%)

 

At 25% growth during the bottom of the U-curve... hard for me to believe that it's sold 60% of its tickets here at least. 

[SpiderByte]

45 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Killers is getting full IMAX, the contracts with IMAX are iron tight and they secured IMAX first. Besides, no one is watching a near 4 hour movie on the weekdays

Is it? Didn't they only get IMAX because Dune moved?

[keysersoze123]

Power of Leo and Marty collabs. Flower moon is breaking out for sure :-) 

[WrathOfHan]

Eras is getting the first Dolby show from KOTFM at most locations, and with how these first presales are going, I'm sure KOTFM will have a good grip on the rest of the day.

[Eric Lasagna]

22 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Power of Leo and Marty collabs. Flower moon is breaking out for sure 🙂

Oh sales are doing good? Awesome to hear!

[WorkingonaName]

23 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Power of Leo and Marty collabs. Flower moon is breaking out for sure 🙂

Inshallah