The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[mikeymichael]

Is there a guide that helps explain how to understand how the tracking and comps in this thread work? It's super cool stuff but I always have to wait until somebody follows up with "well, looks like it's heading towards $6M."

 

 

[Krissykins]

Insidious really surprised even here, going from potentially $3m+ a few days ago to $4m+ yesterday, finishing with $5m in the end. Fantastic number. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Insidious is first title we failed to see coming in a while. Last to this degree was probably Minions 2 and Mario a bit.

[ringedmortality]

So Oppenheimer heading for 60+?

[JustLurking]

1 minute ago, ringedmortality said:

So Oppenheimer heading for 60+?

No lol, that's too much

[TheFlatLannister]

29 minutes ago, mikeymichael said:

Is there a guide that helps explain how to understand how the tracking and comps in this thread work? It's super cool stuff but I always have to wait until somebody follows up with "well, looks like it's heading towards $6M."

 

 

@Porthos has a guide somewhere. I can find it later 

[TheFlatLannister]

12 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

Insidious is first title we failed to see coming in a while. Last to this degree was probably Minions 2 and Mario a bit.

tbf we were aware that Mario and Insidious were poised to overperform, just not by how much

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Cobweb T-15: 14.92% Awareness

A Haunting in Venice T-71: 17.14% Awareness

Challengers T-71: 15.65% Awareness

The Creator T-85: 12.25% Awareness

Wonka T-162: 36.89% Awareness

Kung Fu Panda 4 T-246: 44.32% Awareness

Deadpool 3 T-302: 54.55% Awareness

 

Insidious: The Last Key T-1: 54.86% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 88% chance of 20M, 71% chance of 30M, 47% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 30M

 

Joy Ride T-1: 35.78% Awareness

Final Awareness: 35% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 25% chance of 10M

 

Gran Turismo T-36: 23.46% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 51% chance of 10M, 16% chance of 20M

Known IP Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

[ChipDerby]

1 hour ago, mikeymichael said:

Is there a guide that helps explain how to understand how the tracking and comps in this thread work? It's super cool stuff but I always have to wait until somebody follows up with "well, looks like it's heading towards $6M."

 

 

 

In simple terms ticket sales are tracked x number of days out. Then those sales are compared to similar movies the same number of days out. Say Scream sold 1,000 tickets x days out from release for it's previews, and Insidious sold 500. If Scream made $10 mil for its previews, you can estimate that Insidious will make $5 mil.

 

More or less.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, mikeymichael said:

Is there a guide that helps explain how to understand how the tracking and comps in this thread work? It's super cool stuff but I always have to wait until somebody follows up with "well, looks like it's heading towards $6M."

 

 

 

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

@Porthos has a guide somewhere. I can find it later 

 

Second post of this (current before it gets split) thread:

 

 

[abracadabra1998]

37 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

Second post of this (current before it gets split) thread:

 

 

I’ve seen a few trackers include “adjusted” or “size-adjusted” numbers, how does that exactly work?

 

(sorry, don’t mean to turn the thread into a lesson, just genuinely curious)

[mikeymichael]

Awesome, thanks guys. 

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

I’ve seen a few trackers include “adjusted” or “size-adjusted” numbers, how does that exactly work?

 

(sorry, don’t mean to turn the thread into a lesson, just genuinely curious)

 

Depends on the tracker, but in general any "adjusted" comp means that some sort of change has been made to a comp in that it is not a straight ticket sales for ticket sales comparison, but some fraction or multiple of the comp.

 

Take the adjustments I was making a couple of years ago when I was simulating the lack of Ontario during parts of the pre-sale run of Fast 9 and Black Widow.  At the time I would take what would be the comp against either F9 or BW and then divide that by .955.  This was my of adding more sales to F9 or BW to "make up" for their lack of ticket sales in that province.

 

That's the basic principle at least: Give some sort of adjustment to a comp due to a straight out-and-out comp being unsuitable for one reason or another.

 

The actual nitty gritty adjustments vary by tracker and their own methodologies.

[M37]

13 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

I’ve seen a few trackers include “adjusted” or “size-adjusted” numbers, how does that exactly work?

If you see me post “adjusted” comps, it’s usually because I’m making an educated guess about relative market share (PSM) and ATP, typically for Alpha numbers. Two films that sell a similar number of tickets for a given sample may not necessarily translate to the same overall $ value, particularly if you’re comping across genres, different audience demos 

 

As for size adjusted, that’s a @katnisscinnaplex or @LegionGPT method they can better explain 

 

 

[abracadabra1998]

That makes sense, thanks to both of you!

[poweranimals]

When do tickets for TMNT go on sale?

[katnisscinnaplex]

4 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

When do tickets for TMNT go on sale?

 

On 7/6/2023 at 1:05 PM, datpepper said:

Ninja Turtles on sale July 12

 

Looks like next Wednesday

[abracadabra1998]

On 7/4/2023 at 7:17 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Twin Cities Previews:

 

Mission Impossible 7 (T-7):

Day: T-7, T-6	Shows	Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Tuesday: 19 theaters	130	220	899	22960	3.92
Monday EA: 7 theaters	7	44	432	1372	31.49
TOTALS:	137	264	1331	24332	5.47

 

Comps: 

Total- 1.32x Indiana Jones: $9.52 Million

Just Tuesday Previews- 0.88x Indiana Jones: $6.36 Million

Average- 1.1x Indiana Jones = $7.94 Million

 

Good growth against Indiana Jones comp!

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Mission Impossible 7 (T-4):

Day: T-4, T-3, T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Tuesday: 19 theaters	142	455	1354	24637	5.5
Monday EA: 7 theaters	7	68	500	1372	36.44
Sunday EA: 4 theaters	4	73	73	698	10.46
TOTALS:	153	596	1927	26707	7.22

 

Went ahead and added the Sunday (Walmart See It First blah blah) shows. Only four theaters around the cities are having them, and they're in non-PLF screens, so it's not making a ton of a dent, at least not yet. I don't think many people maybe know about them. But anyways

 

Comps:

 

Total- 1.6x Indiana Jones: $11.56 Million

Just Tuesday Previews- 1.13x Indiana Jones: $8.12 Million

Average- 1.37x Indiana Jones = $9.8 Million

 

Awesome growth here obviously. For comparison sakes, from T-7 to T-4, MI7 grew by 39%, while Indiana Jones grew by 20% (taking away the Sunday showings I hadn't counted before, of course)

 

Maybe partly it a review bump, partly a result of more screens (even just on Tuesday, Indy was at exactly 100 showings vs. 142 for MI7), ramping up of sales, or a mixture of everything. But anyways, good signs from MSP!

[abracadabra1998]

8 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Mission Impossible 7 (T-4):

Day: T-4, T-3, T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Tuesday: 19 theaters	142	455	1354	24637	5.5
Monday EA: 7 theaters	7	68	500	1372	36.44
Sunday EA: 4 theaters	4	73	73	698	10.46
TOTALS:	153	596	1927	26707	7.22

 

Went ahead and added the Sunday (Walmart See It First blah blah) shows. Only four theaters around the cities are having them, and they're in non-PLF screens, so it's not making a ton of a dent, at least not yet. I don't think many people maybe know about them. But anyways

 

Comps:

 

Total- 1.6x Indiana Jones: $11.56 Million

Just Tuesday Previews- 1.13x Indiana Jones: $8.12 Million

Average- 1.37x Indiana Jones = $9.8 Million

 

Awesome growth here obviously. For comparison sakes, from T-7 to T-4, MI7 grew by 39%, while Indiana Jones grew by 20% (taking away the Sunday showings I hadn't counted before, of course)

 

Maybe partly it a review bump, partly a result of more screens (even just on Tuesday, Indy was at exactly 100 showings vs. 142 for MI7), ramping up of sales, or a mixture of everything. But anyways, good signs from MSP!

Also worth pointing out, however, due to the Tuesday release, that this period of days was over the week, rather than over the weekend for Indy. That surely boosts MI7 a bit over it. So we have to take that into account too

[Inceptionzq]

On 7/6/2023 at 3:25 PM, Inceptionzq said:

MI: Dead Reckoning Part 1 Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

191

2036

9.38%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

309

2479

12.46%

 

Sunday: 98(+21)

Monday: 608(+26)

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
918	79	22757	4.03%	13	112

 

0.627

AtSV T-5

10.88M

0.397

Avatar 2 T-5

6.76M

1.491

NTTD T-5

9.29M

MI: Dead Reckoning Part 1 Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

230

2036

11.30%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

336

2479

13.55%

 

Sunday: 136(+38)

Monday: 671(+63)

Tuesday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1032	114	23194	4.45%	13	115

 

0.657	AtSV T-4	11.40M
0.423	Avatar 2 T-4	7.19M
0.540	JW Dominion T-4	9.72M
1.522	NTTD T-4	9.48M