The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[belblazer]

Presales for The Marvels in Brazil are TERRIBLE. It will sure gross less than all 3 MCU movies released in 2021 during pandemic and restrictions: Black Widow ($6.6M), Shang-Chi ($7.5M) and Eternals ($12.6M) as well as Flash ($7.6M), Blue Beetle ($8.1M) and Black Adam ($15.3M).

 

I saw that it sold 49 tickets out of 12,000 available in 12 hours of presale in Mexico and was shocked. The Flash sold 634/10,000, Across the Spider-verse 2,200/17,800 and the last Insidious sold 58.

 

And that's because LATAM loves MCU more than Europe.

Edited October 29, 2023 by belblazer

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Looking at the listed runtime (109 minutes) + PG-13 makes it seem sort of obvious the movie is Next Goal Wins for both this and the Regal screening.

Both chains doing the same movie? That's no fun (but makes the most sense). I saw some Rustin guesses, but that's taking me back to that time people were hoping the Regal Monday movie was The Fabelmans and it ended up being Spirited. Of course, when they finally get a "prestige" film in the mystery movie rotation, it's the most busted Oscar bait ever.

 

The Holdovers is having Early Access screenings this afternoon in markets where it hasn't opened yet.

[filmlover]

9 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

Both chains doing the same movie? That's no fun (but makes the most sense). I saw some Rustin guesses, but that's taking me back to that time people were hoping the Regal Monday movie was The Fabelmans and it ended up being Spirited. Of course, when they finally get a "prestige" film in the mystery movie rotation, it's the most busted Oscar bait ever.

 

The Holdovers is having Early Access screenings this afternoon in markets where it hasn't opened yet.

Next Goal Wins feels like it's headed towards an obvious single digits total. Weak reviews, no awards buzz, little star power in front (Fassbender has never been much of a draw) and behind (no one saw Taika's Thor movies because of who directed them) the camera. No one's gonna check it out even with these possible early screenings, especially when there's more appealing options on the specialty front (Amazon is doing a fine job getting awareness for Saltburn out there so that could find its own audience in a sea of IP-driven titles).

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

The Marvels Preview Tracking T-12 Update

 

The chart and a few quick words

See comments here as to why these particular comps were chosen.

 

Overall the values vs these comps were ... better than I had expected? The view of the data overall depends on whether one focuses solely on recent MCU history, where GOTG3 had an atypically strong finish and might be considered closer to an upper bound, or if the lower sales volume for Marvels (and time of year) makes GOTG3/Eternals more of the baseline, with room to go higher (or yes, lower).  I'm of the second opinion, and with these comps looks to me like ~$7-$8M, with some higher uncertainty and IMO absolutely room to go higher

 

Funny enough, my mental ballpark estimate has been 8x8, meaning roughly $8M Thursday and up to 8x, and to me the data is roughly in line with that preview value (IM TBD later). But probably are going to have to wait until final week if not days to really narrow down trajectory and a more precise Thursday value

Definitely possible as these numbers are ridiculously low. I just got the Friday number late and

 

The Marvels MTC1 Friday - 28200/1040683 536810.34 5297 shows

 

Eternals was at just over 44K and Guardians 3 was over 63K. I am amazed by how low the sales are for friday more than thursday considering there should be some Veteran's day effect. 

 

Is it possible that the surprise movie at a theater could be the Marvels. That is one way to build some hype :-)

[Sckathian]

11 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Geez, this is going to be a new precedent for a worldwide sequel drop isn’t it? Reviews simply have to come to the rescue here or it’s all over. 

Not a sequel which is literally the unforced error of this entire project.

[filmlover]

Pretty sure Alice Through the Looking Glass holds the record for biggest drop for a sequel to such a big blockbuster. From $334M to $77M...oof.

Edited October 29, 2023 by filmlover

[boxoff53]

31 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am amazed by how low the sales are for friday more than thursday considering there should be some Veteran's day effect. 

Of course we have to consider the possibility that this is including whatever veteran's day effect,  and that it would normally be even worse 

Edited October 29, 2023 by boxoff53

[TwoMisfits]

33 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Definitely possible as these numbers are ridiculously low. I just got the Friday number late and

 

The Marvels MTC1 Friday - 28200/1040683 536810.34 5297 shows

 

Eternals was at just over 44K and Guardians 3 was over 63K. I am amazed by how low the sales are for friday more than thursday considering there should be some Veteran's day effect. 

 

Is it possible that the surprise movie at a theater could be the Marvels. That is one way to build some hype 🙂

 

With Eternals at $9.8M Thurs and Marvels at 64% of Eternals, that would make this about $6.3M for preview Thursday. 

 

Eternals seems right to me, b/c it's the same time frame, and now seemingly the same hard draw from disinterested folks.  No one ever really got excited for that movie, even with all the praise going into it from the Marvel team...trailers and concept just never sold it, and that seems to be right where we are for Marvels.

 

If I was sitting here today making a new exact estimate based on where presales are right now, I'd go $6.3M Thurs and $45.6M for the weekend, or pretty much the same 64% multiplier of Eternals for previews and OW...

[Giorno]

25 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Pretty sure Alice Through the Looking Glass holds the record for biggest drop for a sequel to such a big blockbuster. From $334M to $77M...oof.

Should have dropped that movie after avatar 2, would have coasted to another billion

[Giorno]

The Marvels (D-11):

 

720 tickets sold at 10 Houston AMC's/+4 YD

 

Comp:

 

0.697 x EA + (D-11) PV of MI7 = $4.88m

 

1.247 x (D-11) MI7 = $8.73m

[Arlborn]

6 hours ago, M37 said:

The Marvels Preview Tracking T-12 Update

 

The chart and a few quick words

See comments here as to why these particular comps were chosen.

 

Overall the values vs these comps were ... better than I had expected? The view of the data overall depends on whether one focuses solely on recent MCU history, where GOTG3 had an atypically strong finish and might be considered closer to an upper bound, or if the lower sales volume for Marvels (and time of year) makes GOTG3/Eternals more of the baseline, with room to go higher (or yes, lower).  I'm of the second opinion, and with these comps looks to me like ~$7-$8M, with some higher uncertainty and IMO absolutely room to go higher

 

Funny enough, my mental ballpark estimate has been 8x8, meaning roughly $8M Thursday and up to 8x, and to me the data is roughly in line with that preview value (IM TBD later). But probably are going to have to wait until final week if not days to really narrow down trajectory and a more precise Thursday value

64M would not be horrible all things considered… Adjusting expectations I guess.

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Sorry but that’s completely ridiculous to claim it’s not a sequel. It’s like saying Civil War wasn’t a sequel to Winter Solider just because they added a larger ensemble of heroes besides just Cap. Not even entertaining this “not a sequel” notion for a tiny moment. 

There are a lot of people arguing since the name was announced that it would do much better if it were just called Captain Marvel 2. Plenty of people coming from this angle that it’s not a true sequel, both people who dislike CM and people who like her.

 

Me? I still feel this is a sequel and I don’t feel like a name change would’ve made much difference. I’ve heard some compelling arguments otherwise though.

[XXR & Friends]

Has anyone ever accrued enough points to get a thread ban for continual derailment of the tracking thread? We may find out soon! 

[John Marston]

 

[PNF2187]

5 hours ago, filmlover said:

Pretty sure Alice Through the Looking Glass holds the record for biggest drop for a sequel to such a big blockbuster. From $334M to $77M...oof.

Technically was hampered by the pandemic and HBO Max, but Wonder Woman 1984 has an even bigger drop from $412M to $46M.

[M37]

5 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

With Eternals at $9.8M Thurs and Marvels at 64% of Eternals, that would make this about $6.3M for preview Thursday. 

 

Eternals seems right to me, b/c it's the same time frame, and now seemingly the same hard draw from disinterested folks.  No one ever really got excited for that movie, even with all the praise going into it from the Marvel team...trailers and concept just never sold it, and that seems to be right where we are for Marvels.

 

If I was sitting here today making a new exact estimate based on where presales are right now, I'd go $6.3M Thurs and $45.6M for the weekend, or pretty much the same 64% multiplier of Eternals for previews and OW...

Two reasons why I'm not overly fond of that direct comparison:

 

1) Eternals was on the heels of Shang-Chi, there was a fair amount of hype for the new direction of the MCU and the cast, and would expect a higher share of earlier presales for Eternals even if they would up at the exact same place in the end (similar to how AMWQ had a bigger fan rush and then weaker pace than GOTG3)

 

2) Whatever Spooky Season depression effect there is in the week leading up to Halloween, then Eternals was just about to hit that speedbump at this checkpoint, while Marvels - opening a week later in November - is already feeling that impact, and should gain some ground back from now until T-3

 

I would take the over on Marvels being at 64% of Eternals by T-3 (also there have been decent ATP hikes since then, so $ value would be higher), then we'll have to see what effect reviews may have on the finish. The potential to never see any recovery/higher pace is a valid theory of the case, I just think that's closer to the floor than should be the midpoint/expectation

[Hilts]

On 10/28/2023 at 9:11 PM, Hilts said:

 

The Marvels							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-16	21	173	12	579	32,650	1.77%	2.12%
T-15	21	173	6	585	32,650	1.79%	1.04%
T-14	21	173	6	591	32,650	1.81%	1.03%
T-13	21	173	13	604	32,650	1.85%	2.20%
T-12	21	173	24	628	32,650	1.92%	3.97%
MTC1	8	59	+13	323	10,485	3.08%	4.19%
MTC2	4	48	+7	85	8,204	1.04%	8.97%
MTC3	3	39	+4	166	8,077	2.06%	2.47%
Other	6	27	0	54	5,884	0.92%	0.00%
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.650x	=	$4.68m
Barbie					0.333x	=	$7.39m
Oppenheimer					0.600x	=	$6.30m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.929x	=	$8.18m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					1.815x	=	$10.16m
Five Nights at Freddy's					0.569x	=	$5.86m

 

Comp average: $7.10m

 

Better day but comps still dropped slightly.

 

The Marvels							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$16.72
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-15	21	173	6	585	32,650	1.79%	1.04%
T-14	21	173	6	591	32,650	1.81%	1.03%
T-13	21	173	13	604	32,650	1.85%	2.20%
T-12	21	173	24	628	32,650	1.92%	3.97%
T-11	21	173	29	657	32,650	2.01%	4.62%
MTC1	8	59	+10	333	10,485	3.18%	3.10%
MTC2	4	48	+2	87	8,204	1.06%	2.35%
MTC3	3	39	+14	180	8,077	2.23%	8.43%
Other	6	27	+3	57	5,884	0.97%	5.56%
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.660x	=	$4.75m
Barbie					0.317x	=	$7.05m
Oppenheimer					0.589x	=	$6.19m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.911x	=	$8.02m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					1.752x	=	$9.81m
Five Nights at Freddy's					0.562x	=	$5.79m

 

Matinee: 2.59%

3D: 10.05%

PLF: 61.49%

 

Comp average: $6.93m

 

Similar story to yesterday but Indy went up slightly (although much lower would be alarming).

[TheFlatLannister]

21 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

Trolls: Band Together 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-19

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
171	295	31233	0.94%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

8

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-19

 

EA on Saturday = 213 seats sold 

*EA is separated from Thursday gross 

 

(0.736x) of Elemental $1.77M Previews

COMPS AVG: $1.77M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

Trolls: Band Together 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-18

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
171	297	31233	0.95%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-18

 

EA on Saturday = 263 seats sold 

*EA is separated from Thursday gross 

 

(0.726x) of Elemental $1.74M Previews

COMPS AVG: $1.74M

 

Yeah EA sales are defintely crippling previews here 

[Hilts]

On 10/14/2023 at 10:05 PM, Hilts said:

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé							OK
Thursday - showings starting 7pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-52	17	58	3	389	12,530	3.10%	0.78%
T-51	18	59	3	392	12,627	3.10%	0.77%
T-50	18	59	-1	391	12,627	3.10%	-0.26%
T-49	18	59	7	398	12,627	3.15%	1.79%
T-48	18	59	2	400	12,627	3.17%	0.50%
MTC1	7	19	0	280	3,910	7.16%	0.00%
MTC2	4	21	0	29	3,975	0.73%	0.00%
MTC3	3	14	+2	47	3,518	1.34%	4.44%
Other	4	5	0	44	1,224	3.59%	0.00%
T-0 Comp
Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour (Thursday)					0.446x	=	$1.25m
Day 1 Comp
Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour (Friday)					0.065x	=	$2.36m

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé							OK
Thursday - showings starting 7pm						ATP	$26.81
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-36	18	59	5	432	12,627	3.42%	1.17%
T-35	18	59	4	436	12,627	3.45%	0.93%
T-34	18	59	0	436	12,627	3.45%	0.00%
T-33	18	59	0	436	12,627	3.45%	0.00%
T-32	18	57	7	443	11,663	3.80%	1.61%
MTC1	7	19	+3	300	3,910	7.67%	1.01%
MTC2	4	21	+4	35	3,975	0.88%	12.90%
MTC3	3	12	0	53	2,589	2.05%	0.00%
Other	4	5	0	55	1,189	4.63%	0.00%
T-0 Comp						Raw	ATP adj*
Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour (Thursday)				0.494x	=	$1.38m	$1.66m
T-32 Comp						Raw	ATP adj*
Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour (Friday)				0.041x	=	$1.43m	$1.72m

 

*+20%

 

PLF: 54.63%

 

Unless I am mistaken a couple of shows have given way to Godzilla instead.

[TheFlatLannister]

21 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-24

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
162	574	29762	1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

6

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-24

 

(1.487x) of Elemental $3.57M Previews *Not adjusted for ATP discount Tuesday* 

 

429 seats sold over 6 showings at MTC1 Disney 

 

*Saturday EA* separate from previews 

100 seats sold over 10 showings 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-23

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
162	587	29762	2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

13

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-23

 

(1.525x) of Elemental $3.66M Previews *Not adjusted for ATP discount Tuesday* 

 

443 seats sold over 6 showings at MTC1 Disney 

 

*Saturday EA* separate from previews 

114 seats sold over 10 showings 

[TheFlatLannister]

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

 Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
259	2374	52152	4.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

72

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-12

 

(0.438x) of GOTG3~$7.67M Previews

Comps AVG: $7.67M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-11

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
259	2431	52152	4.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

57

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-11

 

(0.432x) of GOTG3~$7.56M Previews

Comps AVG: $7.56M

 

FYI: The Marvels currently trails the Flash in presales. 

Comp: 0.965x of the Flash, however I won't be using it as a comp since MCU films naturally overindex here due to Disney 

Edited October 29, 2023 by TheFlatLannister