The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Halberstram]

1 minute ago, DInky said:

If Aquaman also crashes and burns like The Marvels then Madame Web is bound to make negative dollars, right?

You're saying it'll go the way of Batgirl?

[MovieMan89]

30 OW would tell us zip about Aquabro. It could still bomb just as spectacularly as TM if people hate it or end up with a 6x multi if reception is merely average by sheer virtue of having the best release date situation of probably any modern blockbuster ever (Christmas - NY to itself basically). 
 

One thing is for sure: if this movie bombs as hard as TM, it will be far far far more pathetic for it since it won the blockbuster jackpot on the cal. 

Edited November 20, 2023 by MovieMan89

[HummingLemon496]

 

Huh

Edited November 20, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[Hilts]

On 11/19/2023 at 9:04 PM, Hilts said:

 

Saltburn							OK
Tuesday - showings starting 2pm						ATP	$10.31*
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-6	6	20	10	26	2,536	1.03%	62.50%
T-5	7	25	5	31	3,148	0.98%	19.23%
T-4	7	25	10	41	3,148	1.30%	32.26%
T-3	7	25	4	45	3,148	1.43%	9.76%
T-2	7	25	4	49	3,148	1.56%	8.89%
MTC1	2	7	+2	27	667	4.05%	8.00%
MTC2	2	7	0	10	612	1.63%	0.00%
MTC3	2	8	+2	7	1,272	0.55%	40.00%
Other	1	3	0	5	597	0.84%	0.00%
Comps
Asteroid City					0.297x	=	$0.33m
Talk To Me					0.544x	=	$0.68m
The Last Voyage of the Demeter					0.681x	=	$0.51m
A Haunting In Venice					0.265x	=	$0.32m
Priscilla					0.700x	=	$0.32m

 

*only considers Discount Tue across some (not all) theatres and so is largely irrelevant and incalculable.

 

Matinee: 18.37%

 

Saltburn							OK
Tuesday - showings starting 2pm						ATP	$10.03*
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-5	7	25	5	31	3,148	0.98%	19.23%
T-4	7	25	10	41	3,148	1.30%	32.26%
T-3	7	25	4	45	3,148	1.43%	9.76%
T-2	7	25	4	49	3,148	1.56%	8.89%
T-1	7	25	14	63	3,148	2.00%	28.57%
MTC1	2	7	+7	34	667	5.10%	25.93%
MTC2	2	7	+1	11	612	1.80%	10.00%
MTC3	2	8	+6	13	1,272	1.02%	85.71%
Other	1	3	0	5	597	0.84%	0.00%
Comps
Asteroid City					0.303x	=	$0.33m
Talk To Me					0.496x	=	$0.62m
The Last Voyage of the Demeter					0.618x	=	$0.46m
A Haunting In Venice					0.313x	=	$0.34m
Priscilla					0.851x	=	$0.38m

 

*only considers Discount Tue across some (not all) theatres and so is largely irrelevant and incalculable.

 

Matinee: 14.29%

 

Looking ~$250k-$300k with Discount Tues

[HummingLemon496]

1 hour ago, Relevation said:

$3-3.5M Thurs would yield an opening of $18-23M assuming a 6-6.5x IM

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

 

That means u/RelevationAnimations was completely correct

 

[TheFlatLannister]

I've run out of reactions and it isn't even 5pm...

 

This thread needs to slow down😂

[HummingLemon496]

I'm waiting for @TheFlatLannister's forecast. It's the most easy to understand. 

 

Basically for every CBM this year and especially for a CBM sequel the actual OW either matches or is WORSE than the initial sales.

 

Ant-Man 3: Great initial sales, decent OW

Shazam 2: Awful initial sales, awful OW

Guardians 3: Meh initial sales, meh OW

Flash: Meh initial sales, meh/awful OW

Blue Beetle: Awful initial sales, awful OW

The Marvels: Awful initial sales, awful OW

Aquaman 2: Awful initial sales, [] OW

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 21, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[Hilts]

On 11/19/2023 at 9:00 PM, Hilts said:

 

Wish							OK

Tuesday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$11.64**
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-6	24	107	9	119	15,516	0.77%	8.18%
T-5	24	108	47	166	15,688	1.06%	39.50%
T-4	24	108	20	186	15,688	1.19%	12.05%
T-3	24	112	50	236	16,956	1.39%	26.88%
T-2	24	112	92	328	16,956	1.93%	38.98%
MTC1	7	32	+31	132	4,535	2.91%	30.69%
MTC2	4	25	+2	53	4,131	1.28%	3.92%
MTC3	3	15	+18	39	2,762	1.41%	85.71%
Other	10	40	+41	104	5,528	1.88%	65.08%
Comps						Raw	ATP adj*
Haunted Mansion				0.804x	=	$2.49m	$1.87m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: MM				0.814x	=	$3.13m
Trolls Band Together				1.408x	=	$1.83m

 

*75%

**only considers Discount Tue across some (not all) theatres and so is largely irrelevant and incalculable.

 

Matinee: 31.00%

3D: 23.10%

 

Wish							OK

Tuesday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$11.16**
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-5	24	108	47	166	15,688	1.06%	39.50%
T-4	24	108	20	186	15,688	1.19%	12.05%
T-3	24	112	50	236	16,956	1.39%	26.88%
T-2	24	112	92	328	16,956	1.93%	38.98%
T-1	24	113	131	459	17,015	2.70%	39.94%
MTC1	7	32	+44	176	4,535	3.88%	33.33%
MTC2	4	25	+32	85	4,131	2.06%	60.38%
MTC3	3	15	+35	74	2,762	2.68%	89.74%
Other	10	41	+20	124	5,587	2.22%	19.23%
Comps						Raw	ATP adj*
Haunted Mansion				0.855x	=	$2.65m	$1.99m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: MM				0.790x	=	$3.04m
Trolls Band Together				1.485x	=	$1.93m	$1.45m

 

*75%

**only considers Discount Tue across some (not all) theatres and so is largely irrelevant and incalculable.

 

Matinee: 33.77%

3D: 17.86%

 

Tues comp points to $3m, Thurs comps point to under $2m... looking closer to the latter as TMNT final day growth was 150%! Haunted Mansion was 80% so should drop there too, probably will stay even with Trolls but then have to discount due to ATP. I am thinking similar to Encanto finish right now.

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

Napoleon T-2: 40.38%

Wish T-2: 55.3%

Poor Things T-18: 14.7%

The Boys in the Boat T-35: 19.48%

My Ex-Friend's Wedding T-172: 13.86%

Deadpool 3 T-249: 53.51%

 

Godzilla Minus One T-11: 21.44% Awareness

Final Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 11% chance of 10M

 

Silent Night T-11: 30.23% Awareness

Final Awareness: 36% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 21% chance of 10M

 

Anyone But You T-32: 23.11% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 54% chance of 10M, 19% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 29% chance of 10M

 

The Iron Claw T-32: 21.67% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 54% chance of 10M, 19% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 29% chance of 10M

[Hilts]

On 11/19/2023 at 9:02 PM, Hilts said:

 

Napoleon							OK
Tuesday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$14.30*
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-6	19	59	29	259	10,828	2.39%	12.61%
T-5	19	62	25	284	10,990	2.58%	9.65%
T-4	19	65	61	345	11,677	2.95%	21.48%
T-3	19	68	57	402	12,783	3.14%	16.52%
T-2	19	68	101	503	12,783	3.93%	25.12%
MTC1	8	25	+30	176	4,621	3.81%	20.55%
MTC2	3	14	+3	43	2,398	1.79%	7.50%
MTC3	3	16	+49	207	3,814	5.43%	31.01%
Other	5	13	+19	77	1,950	3.95%	32.76%
Comps
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.561x	=	$3.93m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					1.248x	=	$4.81m
Oppenheimer					0.174x	=	$1.82m
The Creator					2.140x	=	$2.89m

 

*only considers Discount Tue across some (not all) theatres and so is largely irrelevant and incalculable.

 

Matinee: 14.31%

PLF: 43.14%

 

Napoleon							OK
Tuesday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$14.34*
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-5	19	62	25	284	10,990	2.58%	9.65%
T-4	19	65	61	345	11,677	2.95%	21.48%
T-3	19	68	57	402	12,783	3.14%	16.52%
T-2	19	68	101	503	12,783	3.93%	25.12%
T-1	19	72	196	699	13,253	5.27%	38.97%
MTC1	8	25	+80	256	4,621	5.54%	45.45%
MTC2	3	16	+16	59	2,700	2.19%	37.21%
MTC3	3	16	+67	274	3,814	7.18%	32.37%
Other	5	15	+33	110	2,118	5.19%	42.86%
Comps
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.613x	=	$4.29m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					1.203x	=	$4.63m
Oppenheimer					0.205x	=	$2.16m
The Creator					2.105x	=	$2.84m

 

*only considers Discount Tue across some (not all) theatres and so is largely irrelevant and incalculable.

 

Matinee: 15.45%

PLF: 40.77%

 

Last few days have been on par with MI7, not sure what's going on here but that will definitely correct tomorrow.

 

This has been selling enough tickets here to be in the $3m-$4m range but with Discount Tues I guess will converge to low to high 2s.

[ThatWaluigiDude]

Look at how many people are browsing this thread these past hours. We really are all out of our caves for this huh

[PrinceRico]

Looks like The Color Purple is getting some imax screens now. Can anybody comfirm?

[babz06]

50 minutes ago, dallas said:

Which is why I keep saying that the future of CBMs hinges on the 2025 slate. Namely Superman and Fantastic Four. These are DC and Marvel's last resorts, and if they can't turn those heroes into big names again, then it's truly over for superhero movies not named Batman or Spider-Man. 

If they are truly hanging their livelihood on those films then it’s over.  I don’t expect either of those films to set the box office on fire.

Edited November 20, 2023 by babz06

[Hilts]

1 minute ago, PrinceRico said:

Looks like The Color Purple is getting some imax screens now. Can anybody comfirm?

 

I've seen Dolby but not IMAX yet, but I'm only looking at opening day

[Arlborn]

20 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

I'm waiting for @TheFlatLannister's forecast. It's the most easy to understand. 

 

Basically for every CBM this year and especially for a CBM sequel the actual OW either matches or is WORSE than the initial sales.

 

Ant-Man 3: Great initial sales, decent OW

Shazam 2: Awful initial sales, awful OW

Guardians 3: Meh initial sales, meh OW

Flash: Meh initial sales, meh/awful OW

Blue Beetle: Awful initial sales, awful OW

The Marvels: Awful initial sales, awful OW

Aquaman 2: Awful initial sales, [] OW

 

And actually there is a trend for the forecast going DOWN as time went on. Ant-Man was like $125-140M before bad reception "tanked" it to $106M. Shazam 2 was $35-40M initial before ending at $30M. Guardians was $100-120M and ended at $118M so yeah that lined up. Flash was $75M+ before ending at $55M. Blue Beetle started at $20M before ending at $25M (overperformance). The Marvels was $50-70M before ending at $46M.

 

There's no reason why this would change for Aquaman. The only recent CBM that went against this streak was Black Adam which had insane walk-ups because the Rock literally is the most popular actor ever. 

 

 

 

Didn’t Aquaman have a lot of walk ups for a CBM as well? Might have something to do with it having a higher ratio of women than men on OW, but not sure if I’m misremembering any of it.
 

I can see that happening but honestly it’s probably just going to land on some low ish boring number like 28M  and end with like 120-150M in a very tedious run to follow.

 

We’ll see how the next couple of weeks go though.

 

Do we know any embargo dates for it?

[MovieMan89]

The sharp downward trend in tracking with the plummeting RT score isn’t doing much to convince me Wish isn’t about to implode… I am curious if it beats Trolls OW for the 5 day. 

[HummingLemon496]

4 hours ago, Arlborn said:

Didn’t Aquaman have a lot of walk ups for a CBM as well? Might have something to do with it having a higher ratio of women than men on OW, but not sure if I’m misremembering any of it.
 

I can see that happening but honestly it’s probably just going to land on some low ish boring number like 28M  and end with like 120-150M in a very tedious run to follow.

 

We’ll see how the next couple of weeks go though.

 

Do we know any embargo dates for it?

Idk I wasn't following the box office at the time

 

 

Idk the embargo date

Edited November 21, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[Halberstram]

What are the odds that we have not one, not two, not three, but 4 superheroes movie under $100M DOM

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Halberstram said:

What are the odds that we have not one, not two, not three, but 4 superheroes movie under $100M DOM

Guaranteed without Aquabro’s release situation. Probably won’t happen though thanks to that.