The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, M37 said:

 

As always, Deadline doesn’t do tracking, only reporting what is out there (in this case, likely NCG) 

 

Quorum numbers are solid, which is likely what this range is based on, but presales are telling a much different (aka depressing) story

I think Deadline/trades numbers are driven by NRG tracking data. 

[Porthos]

The thing is, with this year's CBMs is that they're (presumably) based on a model which hasn't yet caught up to (current) reality.

 

I remember back in the day that tracking models would often break down as a film started to approach a 200m OW largely because there weren't enough 200m+ OW movies out there to make a workable model ahead of time.  It's how you could get Film X projected to open to 160-180 instead open to 250m.

 

Now we have something of the reverse.  We have a literal decade plus of a genre of movies which preformed one way according to pre-release survey measurements/Google Trends/other non-actual hard sales data but which isn't performing that way once the sales actually start.

 

Sometimes it's Garbage In, Garbage Out when it comes to model.  But sometimes the model simply no longer accurately reflects what is actually happening and it just takes time/a lot more data for the model to sort itself out unless it is radically reworked/overhauled.

 

We're in such a transition period right now.  Time will tell if it is a temporary blip or a real change that lasts for a good long while (very likely the latter, but this year is unusual enough that I am willing to be a bit open minded on the question).

 

Edited November 30, 2023 by Porthos

[filmlover]

Hollywood Reporter with more Christmas numbers besides Aquaman (reporting similar numbers though NRG is expecting $36-44M):

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/aquaman-lost-kingdom-tracking-box-office-migration-1235702120/

 

Migration: $13M 4-day (NRG expecting $11-15M, not great Bob)

The Color Purple: $7M on Christmas Day from NRG (WB expecting $9M, huh)

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Hollywood Reporter with more Christmas numbers besides Aquaman (reporting similar numbers though NRG is expecting $36-44M):

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/aquaman-lost-kingdom-tracking-box-office-migration-1235702120/

 

Migration: $13M 4-day (NRG expecting $11-15M, not great Bob)

The Color Purple: $7M on Christmas Day from NRG (WB expecting $9M, huh)

So the 50m came from the studio. Its interesting they are providing a number this early !!!

[filmlover]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

So the 50m came from the studio. Its interesting they are providing a number this early !!!

The movies come out in three weeks, which is pretty standard as to when tracking is released.

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The movies come out in three weeks, which is pretty standard as to when tracking is released.

We get NRG tracking data. But Studios giving early numbers is rare. That normally happens during release week. Disney was in fact cagey about Marvels/Wish based on @Shawn

[Flip]

For the 4 day 50 million isn’t too far of a stretch, it could play out like 6-12-14-5-13, if previews somehow could get up to that number

[TheFlatLannister]

18 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

GODZILLA MINUS ONE

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
151	443	31274	1.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

49

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(0.390x) of Exorcist $1.11M Previews

Comps AVG: $1.11M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

GODZILLA MINUS ONE

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-0 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
151	620	31274	2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 3:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

177

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-0

 

(0.376x) of Exorcist $1.07M Previews

Comps AVG: $1.07M

 

A better final day than I was anticipating. I'll go with $1M +/- $0.2M *THURSDAY ONLY* NO EA COUNTED 

[MysteryMovieMogul]

13 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Migration: $13M 4-day (NRG expecting $11-15M, not great Bob)

 

Is this real? With Wish failing, and Elemental barely legging it out, this feels like a death knell for theatrical animation that isn't based on an established franchise.

[TheFlatLannister]

2 minutes ago, Flip said:

For the 4 day 50 million isn’t too far of a stretch, it could play out like 6-12-14-5-13, if previews somehow could get up to that number

I don't see how Aquaman gets anywhere near $6M previews with this current pace. All regional data points to sub $4M 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

Is this real? With Wish failing, and Elemental barely legging it out, this feels like a death knell for theatrical animation that isn't based on an established franchise.

The biggest problem facing Migration IMO is that it looks completely derivative, which clearly just isn't enough in the "sink or swim" moviegoing climate circa 2023. It should have fine legs over the holidays since kids tend to check out movies more after Christmas is over, but it's clearly shaping to be more of a Ferdinand/Spies in Disguise type of animated holiday performer than what's become expected from Illumination.

[YM!]

23 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Hollywood Reporter with more Christmas numbers besides Aquaman (reporting similar numbers though NRG is expecting $36-44M):

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/aquaman-lost-kingdom-tracking-box-office-migration-1235702120/

 

Migration: $13M 4-day (NRG expecting $11-15M, not great Bob)

The Color Purple: $7M on Christmas Day from NRG (WB expecting $9M, huh)

If that 11-15M range is true for Migration, and is more Ferdinand than Puss 2, then maybe original animation is dead as a whole.

[ZeroHour]

20 minutes ago, YM! said:

If that 11-15M range is true for Migration, and is more Ferdinand than Puss 2, then maybe original animation is dead as a whole.

The data point we're missing is an extremely well reviewed animated original from one of the major studios. Basically an original film near Across the Spiderverse level reception to give a fuller picture of the state of animated originals. I don't think Migration is going to be that. Elemental got the closest and legged out, but the review rollout at Cannes was a mess and that 74% RT score is still not that impressive. It would've been really helpful if Disney had put Turning Red into theaters like they should have.

[YM!]

Just now, ZeroHour said:

The data point we're missing is an extremely well reviewed animated original from one of the major studios. Basically an original film near Across the Spiderverse level reception to give a fuller picture of the state of animated originals. I don't think Migration is going to be that. Elemental got the closest and legged out, but the review rollout at Cannes was a mess and that 74% RT score is still not that impressive. It would've been really helpful if Disney had put Turning Red into theaters like they should have.

Turning Red, Luca and Soul should've been theatrical in the first place. Think Elemental does 200/600 in a world where those three went theatrical.

[Arlborn]

26 minutes ago, YM! said:

If that 11-15M range is true for Migration, and is more Ferdinand than Puss 2, then maybe original animation is dead as a whole.

This is depressing, streaming really killing family interesting.

[Cookson]

Would they count Minus Ones early access Wednesday number with Thursday? 

[MovieMagic]

Box Office Pro has up their long range article for TCP:

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-the-color-purple-hopes-to-stand-out-over-christmas-and-new-years/

 

They have it at $13+M for OW.

 

They also updated Wonka’s projection to $32-$42M OW / $175-$252M total (up 20%).

 

Aquaman and Migration have both gone down.

[joselowe]

5 hours ago, Cappoedameron said:

Beyonce is not selling well in my area at all, not a single sold out show, or even 50% full.

Same here at my local theaters in the Miami area

[TwoMisfits]

32 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

This is depressing, streaming really killing family interesting.

 

It's not just streaming.

 

It's streaming combined with theatrical ticket pricing, with no theater memberships for families.

 

B2G1 got Paw Patrol to $65M DOM...which is amazing for a franchise that draws no one 13+ except for parents and grandparents dragged there...I wonder what BOGO would do for an entire run...

[Scubasteve716]

Feel like the Color Purple number is getting lost on some of the higher profile releases but the 7-9 mil number opening day is pretty huge is it not? I’d imagine 100 mil before the 3rd weekend would be possible if $9 mil really happened. 

Edited November 30, 2023 by Scubasteve716
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