The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Porthos]

Not sure how much it's been brought up, but something to remember about TCP is that it's an All Day release, thus Early Bird/Matinee pricing will be in play.

 

Some chains might be grinches and try to not allow it due to it being Xmas, but a quick look locally has every chain in town that normally has EB/matinee pricing also having it for TCP on Xmas Day.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

30 minutes ago, joselowe said:

Yes a lot of churches and HBCU sororities are renting whole theaters

Locally there were multiple special screenings yesterday for The Color Purple, hosted by different sororities and also an NAACP chapter. My mom bought tickets for one at $35 a pop and that was the low end (though it did include a full meal). There have got to be at least a hundred screenings like this across the US, probably more. I wonder if/how the revenue counts toward TCP's box office? Like, does WB just let groups see the movie early for free to build WOM, and let these groups fundraise off the back of it as some sort of tax thing? Or are these early paid events going to be counted as private screenings that get rolled into TCP's opening day/weekend?

Edited December 11, 2023 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Wonka MTC1

Previews(T-5) - 22944/475581 415709.14 2265 shows

Friday - 21382/726694 367206.96 3391 shows

Wonka MTC1

Previews(T-4) - 25286/474349 455523.68 2266 shows

Friday - 25036/722862 428955.54 3382 shows

 

Definite sign of final surge. 

 

Also looked at MTC2 earlier today

Previews - 7397/261723 103848.12 1801 shows

Friday - 15430/419807 199456.92 2830 shows

 

Weak previews but that thursday to Friday ratio shows its going to play like a family movie.  

Edited December 11, 2023 by keysersoze123

[keysersoze123]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

Not sure how much it's been brought up, but something to remember about TCP is that it's an All Day release, thus Early Bird/Matinee pricing will be in play.

 

Some chains might be grinches and try to not allow it due to it being Xmas, but a quick look locally has every chain in town that normally has EB/matinee pricing also having it for TCP on Xmas Day.

I dont think show count is crazy can you take a rough look at OD sales. It should be really good but I want to see are there any regional skew. 

[nguyenkhoi282]

8 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Wonka: 25-30 OW, 13-16x

Migration: 12-16 OW, 11-13x

 

Santa been working on those LEGS this year, get ready 

I'm with you 🤚

[titanic2187]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Wonka MTC1

Previews(T-4) - 25286/474349 455523.68 2266 shows

Friday - 25036/722862 428955.54 3382 shows

 

Definite sign of final surge. 

 

It is about time. Looking at Mexico and UK opening, 25-30m OW just doesn’t make sense for NA. People is expecting a good WOM run but I don’t want to put so much stress in leg, the higher the OW, the better off wonka are.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

I dont think show count is crazy can you take a rough look at OD sales. It should be really good but I want to see are there any regional skew. 

 

It's blowing the fuck up here is how it's doing.

 

Consider this a one-off, as I DO NOT TRACK full day opening days; not even Q&Ds. And I'm not about to start now.

 

The Color Purple [T-15]

2398/10046 [23.87% sold] [77 showings]

 

2.21218x Oppenheimer at T-15

1.32276x Barbie at T-15

8.5643x KotFM at T-15 (lol)

REMEMBER TO TAKE A HUGE CHUCK OF CHANGE OUT OF THE COMPS FOR ALL DAY SHOWINGS (more on this below)

 

And that's without any showings yet at the downtown theater that traditionally does very well for African American/more urban based demo films (it only has nine screens so it's not that surprising they're lagging behind a bit schedule wise).

 

Century Arden is even more coo-coo:

771/1692 45.56% sold (9 showings)

 

FWIW, there are a LOT of matinee/early sales.  Like a shit ton.  I strongly suspect many of them are folks going after Xmas morning services or showing up before Xmas Dinner/festivities. So that's very likely to put even more of a thumb on the scale, even for folks who do happen to have all day comps.

 

Now I haven't been paying close enough attention to other markets to know if this is lagging behind other markets or not, but I think it is very safe to say this is a monster brewing right now, at least for Xmas Day.  Beyond that?  And how big of a monster?  No clue whatsoever.  Be fun to find out though. 🙂

 

Edited December 11, 2023 by Porthos

[Eric S'ennui]

Quorum Updates

Poor Things T-11: 19.23% Awareness

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes T-165: 41.82%

Bad Boys 4 T-186: 38.65%

 

Wonka T-4: 68.87% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 88% chance of 50M, 76% chance of 60M, 59% chance of 70M, 41% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 70M, 33% chance of 100M

 

Anyone But You T-11: 26.54% Awareness

Final Awareness: 17% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom T-11: 64.14% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 88% chance of 50M, 76% chance of 60M, 59% chance of 70M, 41% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 80% chance of 50M, 60% chance of 100M

 

The Iron Claw T-11: 28.61% Awareness

Final Awareness: 17% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

 

Migration T-11: 38.49% Awareness

Final Awareness: 37% chance of 10M, 6% chance of 20M

Animation/Family Awareness: 33% chance of 20M

 

The Book of Clarence T-32: 18.32% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 12% chance of 10M

 

I.S.S. T-39: 17.45% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 12% chance of 10M

[Agafin]

Looking at the tracking, this holiday season is gonna have some of the greatest depth ever. No movie is gonna make more than 20ish% of the overall gross, as $ will be spread between a very diverse array of movies. No Avatar, No Way Home or Star Wars this year.

[vale9001]

4 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

It is about time. Looking at Mexico and UK opening, 25-30m OW just doesn’t make sense for NA. People is expecting a good WOM run but I don’t want to put so much stress in leg, the higher the OW, the better off wonka are.

 

Well Fast 10 made 15M first weekend in Mexico , 67M in the US. So can happen a movie is just more interesting for mexican people. Like Mary Poppins 2 in the Uk made basically half than Us total (and paddington movies same as the Us total). 

let's hope the interest can grew up this week in the Us too. Today the movie should get several Golden Globes nominations. 

Edited December 11, 2023 by vale9001

[vafrow]

21 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Expand  

 

Wonka, T-5, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 5

Total Sales: 56

New Sales since last update: 3

Growth: 5.7%

Showtimes: 19

Radius 19km

 

Tickets/Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 8/4

Early Evening: 37/8

Late Evening: 11/7

 

Tickets/Showtimes by format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 25/6

VIP: 16/4

IMAX: 12/6

4DX: 3/3

 

Comps

0.225x of HG:BoSS for $1.3M

 

Only sales were in the 4dx screen. Still not much going on here.

 

Expand  

 

Wonka, T-4, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 5

Total Sales: 72

New Sales since last update: 16

Growth: 29%

Showtimes: 19

Radius 19km

 

Tickets/Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 10/4

Early Evening: 49/8

Late Evening: 13/7

 

Tickets/Showtimes by format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 27/6

VIP: 26/4

IMAX: 16/6

4DX: 3/3

 

Comps

0.246x of HG:BoSS for $1.4M

 

A good day, all things considered, but still doesn't move the needle much.

[charlie Jatinder]

31 minutes ago, Eric Wonka said:

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 60M

Confirmed. Eric = Quorum.

[vafrow]

21 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, T-12 (Day 2ish), western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 5

Total Sales: 29

New Sales since last update: 7

Growth: 32%

Showtimes: 19

Radius 19km

 

Tickets/Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 6/4

Early Evening: 21/8

Late Evening: 2/7

 

Tickets/Showtimes by format

Dolby 3D: 0/6

Dolby:  0/1

IMAX: 2/3

IMAX 3D: 18/3

4dx: 0/3

VIP 3D: 0/2

VIP: 9/1

 

Comps

0.081x of The Marvels for $0.5M

It grew, but when it's comping that low, it's inevitable.

 

I don't have data at the level that I need it for Blue Beetle, but I was tracking it. Just off of high level, my feel is that it's probably doing about the same as that. 

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, T-11, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 5

Total Sales: 38

New Sales since last update: 9

Growth: 31%

Showtimes: 19

Radius 19km

 

Tickets/Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 6/4

Early Evening: 30/8

Late Evening: 2/7

 

Tickets/Showtimes by format

Dolby 3D: 2/6

Dolby:  0/1

IMAX: 2/3

IMAX 3D: 18/3

4dx: 0/3

VIP 3D: 2/2

VIP: 14/1

 

Comps

0.105x of The Marvels for $0.7M

0.288x of HG:BoSS for $1.7M

Avg: $1.2M

 

At least it's growth is high. But still, this is just really low.

 

I added Hunger Games as a comp, which helps a bit.

[Arlborn]

Looking at what you guys are saying, I feel like The Color Purple is going to win Christmas day but Wonka will win the whole period overall, right?

 

In the end I think both will do well, and this Christmas period overall seems like it's going to actually turn out OK compared to what many people were predicting even a few weeks ago, no?

 

The Japanese surprise really helps too.

[Noctis]

Those presales can't be that bad for Aquaman jfc

[vafrow]

22 minutes ago, Noctis said:

Those presales can't be that bad for Aquaman jfc

 

If you're referring to my numbers, the short answer is that yeah, they're bad. The good news is that this region has not been a reliable indicator recently. It produces very erratic results, combined with a lack of great comps due to short history and a need to pivot methodologies recently due to site changes.

 

Marvels also isn't a great comp. It had a longer sales window, and I believe Marvels may have overperformed here due to some of the demographic make up of the region.

 

Hunger Games might end up being the more reliable comp, which I didn't expect. Both have similar sales windows up here, and HG showed good pace from this point forward. Aquaman is starting so low that it should match pace, but, since we don't know what the reception is yet, it's also not guaranteed.

[el sid]

Migration had yesterday 63 sold tickets for Thursday, December 21 (in 7 theaters).
In the next few days I'll check its presales on Friday and Christmas because I don't have many Thursday comps. But for now: Dolittle (925k from previews) had on Monday of the release week 156 sold tickets (= 8 days left for Migration to come closer or overtake)

and Lyle, Lyle Crocodile (575k) had also on Monday of the release week 49 sold tickets.

When I counted it 1-2 weeks ago it had maybe a dozen sold tickets so at least now I see some signs of life.

[keysersoze123]

On 12/5/2023 at 10:00 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Aquaman 2 MTC1

Previews - 18818/506505 372929.20 2593 shows

Friday - 10776/721175 201675.28 3725 shows

 

 

Aquaman 2 MTC1

Previews(T-11) - 21906/504381 432024.34 2595 shows

Friday - 13495/720465 251623.73 3730 shows

 

Data is as of yesterday night. Its as expected as this movie is a dead end and DCEU has had only bombs this decade. I am thinking 4m previews and 25-30m OW.  

[misterpepp]

On 12/7/2023 at 7:09 PM, misterpepp said:

Book of Clarence on sale Dec 11

Good ole Sony, doing what they do best. This was pushed to the 15th.

[VanillaSkies]

Given its Golden Globe nomination today, it looks like starting Wednesday AMC will be playing The Eras Tour every day from Dec 13th - Jan 2nd. 
 

Probably won’t add too much to the total, but I could see some Swifites going again over Christmas Break. And obviously AMC wants to milk it as much as possible since they have much to gain from any extra cash.

 

https://x.com/ceoadam/status/1734223281421463924?s=46

Edited December 11, 2023 by VanillaSkies