The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, babz06 said:

Wouldn’t The Fall Guy be more walk ups driven rather than pre sales? 

 

So are most of the films I brought up as comps.

 

But this is mitigated to a small degree by the sheer number of pre-sale days.  Even at drips and drabs they add up when you have 50+ of them.

[abracadabra1998]

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Fall Guy (T-51, Day 1):

Day: T-51, T-50	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 17 theaters	51	36	36	9691	0.37
Sunday May 1 EA: 13 theaters	16	34	34	3764	0.9
TOTALS:	67	70	70	13455	0.52

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		33	33	91.67
MTC1:		36	36	100
Marcus:		0	0	0
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		0	0	0

*Chart for Thursday previews only

 

Day 1 Comps (versus all sales, including EA):

1.79x Argylle: $3.05 Million

0.95x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $4.26 Million

1.49x Wonka: $5.21 Million

0.35x FNAF: $3.64 Million

1.46x Napoleon: $4.38 Million

2.41x The Monkey Man

 

I know my comps are complete ass, but wanted to illustrate that this had a really solid start here. MTC1 driving all Thursday sales and Alamo driving around 90% of EA, so heads up: this market might overperform on Day 1 against other Alamo-less markets. 

 

I will update this on Thursday, then do weekly updates from then on until T-35, in which I will start my usual bi-weekly updates. 

[dallas]

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-9

Tickets Sold: 220 (+47 since T-14)

Growth: 27%

% PLF: 43%

5 theaters/28 showtimes

 

Comps:

(1.497x) of Dune 2 - $13.92 Million

(1.605x) of Aquaman 2 - $7.22 Million

COMPS AVG - $10.57 Million

 

Yep, really solid sales still. Far ahead of Dune 2 and Aquaman 2, though Aquaman over-indexed in my area and Dune under, so of course those numbers are flexible. Should do fairly well though when all is said and done. $40M+ opening might be possible.

[keysersoze123]

On 3/11/2024 at 9:55 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire MTC1

Previews - 21725/529908 383404.47 2709 shows

Friday - 13724/602897 235653.12 3175 shows

 

This is as of now and so Dune 2 comps are under $3m if you assume thursday at 9.35m(Isn't that what @charlie Jatinder said). Anyway I wont compare this with Dune anyway. Let us see how it finishes.  

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire MTC1

Previews(T-9) - 23260/533778 408624.76 2744 shows

Friday - 15065/608046 257823.67 3207 shows

 

Daily pace is around 908/774 for thursday/Friday. I did not track afterlife at this point but close to T-4 i had the data. Unless we see some big acceleration this week I think its going to be below afterlife for both previews/Friday. One thing going for this movie is it will have $5 deal for Tmobile/Atom next week. Let us see if that will help it catch up to afterlife. For now I am thinking 4ish previews and low/mid 30s OW.  

 

Edit: Afterlife also had Tmobile/atom deal. 

 

 

It appears Afterlife had some early shows on wednesday as well. 

 

Edited March 13 by keysersoze123

[leoh]

2 hours ago, dallas said:

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-9

Tickets Sold: 220 (+47 since T-14)

Growth: 27%

% PLF: 43%

5 theaters/28 showtimes

 

Comps:

(1.497x) of Dune 2 - $13.92 Million

(1.605x) of Aquaman 2 - $7.22 Million

COMPS AVG - $10.57 Million

 

Yep, really solid sales still. Far ahead of Dune 2 and Aquaman 2, though Aquaman over-indexed in my area and Dune under, so of course those numbers are flexible. Should do fairly well though when all is said and done. $40M+ opening might be possible.

cool, Ghostbusters good pre sales are also being reported by @abracadabra1998 @jeffthehat @Inceptionzq @TheFlatLannister

 

it also seems to be having better pre sales than Ghostbusters Afterlife.

Edited March 13 by leoh

[Legion Again]

Starting so early for a small nonIP like this basically makes any D1 stuff useless, as well as the middle period. I wouldn’t want to draw anything but the most broad conclusions (“looks like single digits guys”) until at least like t-10

[JustLurking]

...why is this film even on such a long presale window to begin with?

[vale9001]

20 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

...why is this film even on such a long presale window to begin with?

It was supposed to be released this week before being moved after the strike. The premiere with the cast at the SXSW was planned already  so...why not? 

Edited March 13 by vale9001

[JustLurking]

5 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

It was supposed to be released yesterday before being moved after the strike. The premiere with the cast at the SXSW was planned already  so...why not? 

Because there is absolutely no value in a near 2-month presale window for TFG? Even the more GA-friendly action franchises don't really show any PS strength until the final stretch, so what are they expecting here?

[vale9001]

44 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Because there is absolutely no value in a near 2-month presale window for TFG? Even the more GA-friendly action franchises don't really show any PS strength until the final stretch, so what are they expecting here?

 

Nothing special. No One cares about pre Sales numbers expect for box office forums lol. And doesn't have any cost to open that 20 days before, 30 or 40 days. Like 100% free. 

 

Not every movie has a preview with the cast doing interviews and Red carpet 50 days before. It happened for this so why they shouldn't open the previews even if for only 48 hours you get already a little bit of buzz from these events and related news?

Edited March 13 by vale9001

[Human]

Ready to see Ghostbusters gross over 2 billion.  Why dream if you do not dream big.

 

On an actual serious note it is great seeing this thread full of optimism again.

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-10, Thursday previews,

 

Total Sales: 56

New Sales: 1

Growth: 2%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 4

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 4.3

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 5/3

Early Evening: 47/5

Late Evening: 4/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 42/10
IMAX:3/1
VIP: 11/2

 

T-13 Comps

0.378x HG:BoSS for $2.2M

0.691x Madame Web for $4.2M 

1.477x Aquaman 2 for $5.1M

0.110x Dune 2 for $1.1M

0.149x The Marvels for $1.0M

1.556x Wonka for $5.4M

Average: $3.2M

 

Not a great day, as it fell behind on most comps. We'll get updated showtimes today though, and that should help.

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-9, Thursday previews,

 

Total Sales: 58

New Sales: 2

Growth: 4%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 22

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.6

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 5/6

Early Evening: 49/8

Late Evening: 4/8

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 44/10
IMAX:3/4
VIP: 11/5

4DX: 0/3

 

Comps

0.324x HG:BoSS for $1.9M

0.624x Madame Web for $3.8M 

0.841x Aquaman 2 for $3.8M

0.106x Dune 2 for $1.1M

0.147x The Marvels for $1.0M

1.318x Wonka for $5.4M

Average: $2.7M

 

This is starting to fade pretty fast. Two days of comps falling pretty significantly.

 

For added showtimes, it got a lot of showtimes in the one theatre where it didn't get showtimes initially, where it got three screens at 3 shows each, but it got nothing else at any other location. Those went up last night with no sales. Maybe those pick up in tje days ahead, but this needs something to show some life.

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

Monkey Man, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), D1, T-24, Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 4

New Sales: NA

Growth: NA

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 2

Showtimes: 4

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.0

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 4/2

Late Evening: 0/2

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 4/2
Regular: 0/2

 

With only two screens, I don't have much to comp against l, especially this far out.

 

Not bad, but I expect this to be pretty quiet until closer to release.

 

Monkey Man, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), D2, T-23, Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 8

New Sales: 4

Growth: 100%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 2

Showtimes: 4

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.0

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 4/2

Late Evening: 4/2

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 8/2
Regular: 0/2

 

The initial reactions didn't do too much. This will probably only see activity as we get closer. I was hoping the word of mouth would help a bit.

[vafrow]

The Fall Guy, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), D1, T-51, Thursday previews and Wednesday EA

 

Total Sales: 2

New Sales: NA

Growth: NA

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.2

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 2/6

Late Evening: 0/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

 

Dolby: 2/6

IMAX: 0/4

4DX: 0/2

 

D1 Comp:

0.500x Kung Fu Panda 4 for $1.9M

 

EA sales

Total: 0

Showtimes: 5

Theatres: 4

 

Not enough activity to make any declaration. I was going to throw in Wonka, but it started with zero sales.

 

Maybe the early reactions from last night helps drive some sales, but I think this will be a movie to really struggle. Will probably post follow ups for a few days before shifting weekly.

 

EA sales also make this additionally annoying to track and comp.

Edited March 13 by vafrow

[charlie Jatinder]

Godzilla starting to go on sale in MiniTC2

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
American Soc	T-2	Jax	4	9	2	10	770	1.30%
		Phx	5	11	3	12	1,133	1.06%
		Ral	6	16	0	6	1,480	0.41%
	Total		15	36	5	28	3,383	0.83%
Arthur the King	T-2	Jax	5	14	11	21	1,173	1.79%
		Phx	6	18	20	40	2,327	1.72%
		Ral	8	22	10	26	1,927	1.35%
	Total		19	54	41	87	5,427	1.60%
Love Lies	T-2	Jax	4	10	10	14	710	1.97%
		Phx	6	14	36	63	1,096	5.75%
		Ral	7	19	0	23	1,794	1.28%
	Total		17	43	46	100	3,600	2.78%
One Life	T-2	Jax	4	10	0	5	662	0.76%
		Phx	2	5	5	9	448	2.01%
		Ral	3	9	5	5	702	0.71%
	Total		9	24	10	19	1,812	1.05%

 

Arthur T-2 comps

 - Peter Rabbit - .837x (753k)

 - Dog - 1x (1.26m)

 - Jungle Cruise - .265x (716k)

 - Stillwater - 2.72x (761k)

 - Otto (expansion) - .861x (547k)

 - King Richard (OD) - .418x (811k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 790k

 

Love Lies T-2 comps

 - Last Night in Soho - 1x (750k)

 - Ambulance - 1.11x (778k)

 - Bones & All - 1.85x (639k)

 - Men - 1.06x (450k)

 - X - 1.124x (494k)

Size adjusted comps - 602k (pretty good day in Phoenix - most showings had at least a few new sales)

 

American Society T-2 comps

 - Easter Sunday - .311x (156k)

 - Joy Ride - .519x (467k)

 - House Party - .824x

 - Vengeance - .583x

 - Family Camp - .718x

 

One Life T-2 comps

 - Joe Bell - 2.11x

 - She Said - .76x (122k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
American Soc	T-1	Jax	5	13	6	16	1,258	1.27%
		Phx	5	13	0	12	1,285	0.93%
		Ral	6	16	6	12	1,480	0.81%
	Total		16	42	12	40	4,023	0.99%
Arthur the King	T-1	Jax	5	22	7	28	2,460	1.14%
		Phx	6	19	10	50	2,376	2.10%
		Ral	8	24	4	30	2,311	1.30%
	Total		19	65	21	108	7,147	1.51%
Love Lies	T-1	Jax	4	10	9	23	710	3.24%
		Phx	6	16	9	72	1,191	6.05%
		Ral	7	19	4	27	1,794	1.51%
	Total		17	45	22	122	3,695	3.30%
One Life	T-1	Jax	4	10	4	9	662	1.36%
		Phx	2	5	3	12	448	2.68%
		Ral	4	12	-1	4	834	0.48%
	Total		10	27	6	25	1,944	1.29%

 

Arthur T-1 comps

 - Peter Rabbit - 1.01x (908k)

 - Dog - 1.08x (1.36m)

 - Jungle Cruise - .234x (631k)

 - Stillwater - 2.3x (643k)

 - Otto (expansion) - .745x (473k)

 - King Richard (OD) - .324x (629k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 759k 

 

I wouldn't be surprised if this came in on the high end with good walkups.  The Otto comp worries me a little but the first two are promising.  

 

Love Lies T-1 comps

 - Last Night in Soho - .847x (635k)

 - Ambulance - .931x (652k)

 - Bones & All - 1.77x (610k)

 - Men - .946x (400k)

 - X - .897x (395k)

Size adjusted comps - 521k

 

American Society T-1 comps

 - Easter Sunday - .377x (189k)

 - Joy Ride - .519x (468k)

 - House Party - .889x

 - Vengeance - .635x

 - Family Camp - .727x

 

One Life T-1 comps

 - Joe Bell - 4.167x

 - She Said - .833x (133k)

 - Golda - .532x

 - Stillwater - .532x (149k)

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ghostbusters: FE	T-9	Jax	5	56	5	122	8,681	1.41%
		Phx	6	53	7	129	9,018	1.43%
		Ral	8	42	10	146	6,052	2.41%
	Total		19	151	22	397	23,751	1.67%

 

T-9 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.059x (3.28m)

 - Shazam 2 - .852x (2.9m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.256x (5.15m)

 - NTTD (Total) - .581x (3.66m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .619x (3.47m)

 - MI:7 (Total) - .417x (3.67m)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife (Total) - missed

 - Uncharted - .985x (3.64m)

 - Indiana Jones - .467x (3.36m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 3.75m

 

A couple other movies that may be comps, but I'm not committing to the model yet

 - Nope - .843x (5.39m)

 - Morbius - .6x (3.42m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ghostbusters: FE	T-8	Jax	5	56	7	129	8,681	1.49%
		Phx	6	53	23	152	9,018	1.69%
		Ral	8	46	1	147	6,480	2.27%
	Total		19	155	31	428	24,179	1.77%

 

T-8 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.054x (3.27m)

 - Shazam 2 - .879x (2.99m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.251x (5.13m)

 - NTTD (Total) - .562x (3.54m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .61x (3.41m)

 - MI:7 (Total) - .431x (3.79m)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife (Total) - .781x (3.51m)

 - Uncharted - .979x (3.62m)

 - Indiana Jones - .494x (3.55m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 3.73m

 

Kinda surprising how small this range is.

 

A couple other movies that may be comps, but I'm not committing to the model yet

 - Nope - .865x (5.53m)

 - Morbius - .584x (3.33m)

[filmlover]

6 hours ago, JustLurking said:

...why is this film even on such a long presale window to begin with?

It's just Universal's thing from time to time and has been for a while. Earliest example I can think of is Fifty Shades Freed going on sale the same time the trailer dropped 3 months before release.

[el sid]

11 hours ago, Unfitclock said:

Anybody here track the Channing Tatum movie dog?

Arthur the King, counted on Monday (= 2 days ago) for Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): so far no showtimes
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 4 (3 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 6 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): no showtimes
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 5 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 7 (3 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 32 (3 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 5 theaters: 54.

No good comps at the moment but for at least some grading: Dog (1.26M from previews on Sunday and Thursday / 14.9M OW) had on Wednesday for Friday 47 sold tickets

and Clifford (Wednesday release, 2.3M on its first day / 16.6M 3-day OW) had on Monday for Friday 75 sold tickets.

So one the one hand Arthur the King has also in my theaters very low presales, OTOH maybe it doesn't matter if it follows the comps when it comes to walk-ups.

PS: @abracadabra1998 and @katnisscinnaplex track it too.

Edited March 13 by el sid

[katnisscinnaplex]

38 minutes ago, el sid said:

Dog (1.26M from previews on Sunday and Thursday / 14.9M OW) had on Wednesday for Friday 47 sold tickets

I forgot about the Dog EA (I think they were Valentines Day too).  I can find any breakdown for EA/Previews so probably not a good comp with that factored in.  My T-3 check for Dog had 103 tickets sold for EA and 75 for previews.   That'll jump to 405 combined by tomorrow which... Arthur won't be anywhere close to.  Gonna bump my projection back down to the 630k range