The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[filmlover]

The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare looks like an obvious sub-$20M total grosser.

[leoh]

2 hours ago, M37 said:

After reviewing weekend data updates, I'm still here, ~$4.5M Thursday and ~8.5x (10.5/14/9.5 = $38.5M OW is my current pinpoint expectation). Pace is very consistent with Wonka (for both Thu and Fri), and think Afterlife type finish - still under a pandemic cloud which IMO pushed sales later - is too high of a bar to meet, and those comps come down.

 

Will have to wait and see if T-mobile deal and/or (late) reviews can move the needle (perhaps in opposite directions), so $40M OW certainly in play, but probably will take some work. Feels more like a D&D-esque run than GBA, as we're in range of a ~$50M OWeek and ~$100M finish rather than (Thanksgiving inflated) $63M & $129

 

There’s some things to point out (not as a criticism, just a friendly commentary):

 

“rather than (Thanksgiving inflated) $63M & $129”: there was a pandemic when Afterlife was released, then saying any movie was “inflated” during that time doesn’t look appropriate…

 

Yet even considering movies were inflated during 2021 Thanksgiving Thursday to Monday weekend, like they are in normal years without a pandemic, Afterlife wasn’t released during the thanksgiving weekend, but in the week before.

 

Most of schools in the US will have their spring break this weekend. So during the week days, most of the US schools will be closed. And the following week is Eastern break.

 

If records matter, all Ghostbusters movies have opened making more than 40 million, ending with more than 120 million domestically. Plus the Average Ticket Price in 2024 is considerably higher than it was in 2021. And for example in MTC1 Ghostbusters has sold more tickets for Thursday previews than Afterlife did for 2021 Thursday previews.

More tickets with higher ATP leads to bigger box office. And Afterlife opened with 44 million 3-day weekend.

Edited March 18 by leoh

[ReturnOfTheBoxOffice]

Looks like it’s gonna do good business in China.

[jeffthehat]

On 3/12/2024 at 5:43 PM, jeffthehat said:

Malco

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire T-9

Day	Sales	Seats	Shows
Thu	365	12928	73
Fri	506	19660	108
Sat	496	20970	114

Thursday Comps

0.41x Dune 2 T-9 = $4.1m

0.42x Marvels T-9 (10 theaters) = $2.7m

0.93x HG BoSS T-9 (10 theaters) = $5.3m

Friday Comp

0.38x Dune 2 T-10 = $7.7m

0.51x Marvels T-10 (10 theaters) = $7.7m

Saturday Comp

0.41x Dune 2 T-11 = $11.8m

 

THU AVG = $4.03m

Malco

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire T-3

Day	Sales	Seats	Shows
Thu	719	16625	86
Fri	890	22996	120

Thursday Comps

0.50x Dune 2 T-3 = $5.0m

0.83x Marvels T-3 (10 theaters) = $5.5m

0.88x HG BoSS T-3 (10 theaters) = $5.1m

1.75x Wonka T-3 (10 theaters) = $6.1m

Friday Comp

0.43x Dune 2 T-4 = $8.8m

0.91x Marvels T-4 (10 theaters) = $13.6m

0.95x HG BoSS t-4 (10 theaters) = $12.6m

 

THU AVG = $5.43m

FRI AVG = $11.66m

[M37]

4 hours ago, leoh said:

 

There’s some things to point out (not as a criticism, just a friendly commentary):

 

“rather than (Thanksgiving inflated) $63M & $129”: there was a pandemic when Afterlife was released, then saying any movie was “inflated” during that time doesn’t look appropriate…

 

Yet even considering movies were inflated during 2021 Thanksgiving Thursday to Monday weekend, like they are in normal years without a pandemic, Afterlife wasn’t released during the thanksgiving weekend, but in the week before.

The reason I use the first week (OWeek) rather than the OW as the baseline for an film's opening is that it mostly adjusts for seasons where in Fall and Winter especially (but also Spring), more of a film's first week gross is pushed (concentrated) into the weekend, while in summer it is more spread out of the course of the full week. For example, one might look and think Dune II and Oppenheimer had a nearly identical opening at $82.5M, when in fact Dune II's $111M first full week was 13% lower than Oppy (and a decent chance that .87x-.90x ratio mostly holds through the course of the run, for ~$285M or so)

 

The one exception, where this method becomes less precise, is around holidays, because those often encourage bonus business, that is people with more free time and seeking entertainment activities like movies, rather than sliding it between weekend and weekdays.  School breaks for Thanksgiving begin the Monday before, really ramps by Wednesday, and then the holiday itself on Thursday: there is just more potential business in those days than even a summer release. That is why I referred to it as "inflated"

 

4 hours ago, leoh said:

If records matter, all Ghostbusters movies have opened making more than 40 million, ending with more than 120 million domestically. Plus the Average Ticket Price in 2024 is considerably higher than it was in 2021.

Records don't matter, but again if you look at the OWeek and not just the weekend, the female led Ghostbusters in 2016 had a first week of $65.2M, Afterlife $63.3M. To achieve that same level of opening for this time in the calendar ($64M), would need ~$50M OW, which really no one (save Deadline) is expecting. A drop-off seems likely, just a question of how much

 

4 hours ago, leoh said:

And for example in MTC1 Ghostbusters has sold more tickets for Thursday previews than Afterlife did for 2021 Thursday previews.

More tickets with higher ATP leads to bigger box office. And Afterlife opened with 44 million 3-day weekend.

You are correct on the ATP, but also remember that the smaller markers took longer to wake up, so MTC1 was picking up a larger share of the market at that time; a PSM of only $54/tix is pretty low, and I'm using the baseline $57/tix estimate here. And while Frozen Empire is (barely) ahead at present, Afterlife had an incredibly strong finish for MTC1, increasing over 163% from T-4 to T-F, which is on the level of Fast X, ATSV and Mermaid (and ahead of Barbie) - none of which seem like good comps to me in terms of band hype and walk-up potential

 

Instead, I'm expecting it to fall more into the group below (+145% or so), which includes (to me) the best comp in Wonka, but also Aquaman and JWD, which will be in same 75-80K ballpark at final

 

Analysis of box office numbers is more than spot comparing OWs or sales at specific checkpoints, but understanding what those numbers mean in the bigger context, and so how to project forward

Edited March 18 by M37

[Porthos]

BTW, @M37, have the complete run of GBFE local data I can shoot you if it might help a little with your thoughts.

 

...

 

It's... ummm... had some interesting up and down days, I'll put it that way.

[Inceptionzq]

On 3/12/2024 at 3:51 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

126

2091

6.03%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

115

2005

5.74%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
623	25	19395	3.21%	13	95

 

0.926	Black Adam T-9	7.04M
0.613	Transformers T-9	5.40M
1.334	GB Afterlife T-9	6.00M

 

Raw numbers are fine right now, but not a good trend.

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

204

2091

9.76%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

217

2005

10.82%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 6 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1023	400	20830	4.91%	13	102

 

0.787	Black Adam T-3	5.98M
0.609	Transformers T-3	5.36M
1.243	GB Afterlife T-3	5.59M

[Inceptionzq]

On 3/12/2024 at 3:52 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire Alamo Drafthouse

T-9 Thursday

148 Showings

2742

+122

23241

ATP:

17.01

1.242

GB Afterlife T-9

5.59M

 

T-10 Friday

166 Showings

2741

+117

27011

ATP:

16.86

1.400

GB Afterlife T-10

17.01M

 

T-11 Saturday

173 Showings

3179

+135

28164

ATP:

15.62

1.614

GB Afterlife T-11

26.53M

 

T-12 Sunday

157 Showings

1685

+66

25007

ATP:

14.80

1.826

GB Afterlife T-12

19.94M

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire Alamo Drafthouse [+6 days of sales]

T-3 Thursday

171 Showings

3748

+1006

25146

ATP:

16.74

1.086

GB Afterlife T-3

4.89M

 

T-4 Friday

203 Showings

4076

+1335

30256

ATP:

16.65

1.223

GB Afterlife T-4

14.86M

 

T-5 Saturday

209 Showings

4895

+1716

31613

ATP:

15.61

1.411

GB Afterlife T-5

23.20M

 

T-6 Sunday

191 Showings

2638

+953

28045

ATP:

15.01

1.525

GB Afterlife T-6

16.65M

[Inceptionzq]

On 3/12/2024 at 3:54 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire Emagine Entertainment

T-9 Thursday

143 Showings

350

+19

24053

0.693

Transformers T-9

6.10M

 

T-10 Friday

187 Showings

605

+31

31401

1.414

Transformers T-10

23.82M

 

T-11 Saturday

189 Showings

431

+64

32543

1.165

Transformers T-11

22.54M

 

T-12 Sunday

193 Showings

188

+4

32279

1.270

Transformers T-12

19.69M

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire Emagine Entertainment

T-3 Thursday

148 Showings

756

+406

24684

0.861

Transformers T-3

7.58M

 

T-4 Friday

198 Showings

1402

+797

33358

1.253

Transformers T-4

21.11M

 

T-5 Saturday

198 Showings

1177

+746

33985

1.535

Transformers T-5

29.69M

 

T-6 Sunday

202 Showings

502

+314

33711

1.144

Transformers T-6

17.72M

 

Gonna start tracking GxK tomorrow.

[abracadabra1998]

20 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	112	148	591	20513	2.88

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		438	94	74.11
MTC1:		297	66	50.25
Marcus:		72	27	12.18
Alamo:		86	7	14.55
Other chains:		136	48	23.01

 

Comps:

1.38x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $6.2 Million

1.61x Wonka: $5.65 Million

0.56x BoSS: $3.23 Million

1.91x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $5.93 Million

0.49x Indy 5: $3.55 Million

0.44x MI7 (TUE): $3.06 Million

 

Average: $4.6 Million

 

Pretty good update! Only 50% MTC1 sales is very good for a blockbuster. We shall see how the final week goes.

 

Minneapolis St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	114	127	718	20693	3.47

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		535	97	74.51
MTC1:		348	51	48.47
Marcus:		89	17	12.4
Alamo:		103	17	14.35
Other chains:		178	42	24.79

 

Comps:

1.43x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $6.42 Million

1.65x Wonka: $5.78 Million

0.58x BoSS: $3.32 Million

1.92x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $5.95 Million

0.5x Indy 5: $3.57 Million

0.47x MI7 (TUE): $3.29 Million

 

Average: $4.72 Million

 

Rose against all comps! Good stuff

[abracadabra1998]

20 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Immaculate (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 14 theaters	21	36	36	1455	2.47

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		29	29	80.56
Marcus:		0	0	0
Alamo:		7	7	19.44
Other chains:		0	0	0

 

Comps:

0.62x Imaginary: $450k

0.38x Thanksgiving: $385k

0.33x Talk To Me (w/ EA): $415k

0.6x Last Voyage of Demeter: $450k

1.09x It Lives Inside: Not reported (1.09x of FRI + previews = $1.15 Million)

 

No break-out here

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Immaculate (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	24	13	49	1804	2.72

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		40	11	81.63
Marcus:		0	0	0
Alamo:		8	1	16.33
Other chains:		1	1	2.04

 

Comps:

0.65x Imaginary: $475k

0.48x Thanksgiving: $475k

0.37x Talk To Me (w/ EA): $455k

0.71x Last Voyage of Demeter: $535k

1.36x It Lives Inside: Not reported (1.36x of FRI + previews = $1.43 Million)

 

Average (sans It Lives Inside): $485k

 

Also rose against all comps! Movie-buying day in the twin cities I guess

 

[misterpepp]

I've got First Omen going on sale March 29, but a pal of mine still thinks this could go on sale sooner. Let's call this one tentative for now.

 

Also @katnisscinnaplex thanks for updating the Google Drive spreadsheet! 

Edited March 19 by misterpepp

[TheFlatLannister]

21 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

G x K: The New Empire

 

Thursday 

 

T-11

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
581	3214	117127	2.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

142

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-11

(0.567x) of Dune 2 $5.27M  

 

Comps average: $5.27M 

 

Continues to grow at a nice pace 

FLORIDA 

 

G x K: The New Empire

 

Thursday 

 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
583	3357	117356	2.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

143

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-10

(0.577x) of Dune 2 $5.36M  

 

Comps average: $5.36M 

[TheFlatLannister]

21 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Ghostbusters

 

Thursday 

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
559	4259	113406	3.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

103

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-4

(0.551x) of Dune 2 $5.13M  

(2.069x) of Argylle $3.52M  

 

Comps average: $4.33M 

FLORIDA 

 

Ghostbusters

 

Thursday 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
644	4725	130107	3.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

466

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

85

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-3

(0.554x) of Dune 2 $5.15M  

(2.081x) of Argylle $3.54M  

 

Comps average: $4.35M 

 

Looks like yesterday was just a fluke @leoh 

[Brainbug]

Gotta say, GxK is chugging along more strongly so far than i had expected. Im still a bit hesitant to call 60M+ a safe bet, but this seems promising.

[ReturnOfTheBoxOffice]

44 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Gotta say, GxK is chugging along more strongly so far than i had expected. Im still a bit hesitant to call 60M+ a safe bet, but this seems promising.

I think it being a walk up heavy movie with the added Easter bump might shoot it higher than people think. Now if we can just get decent reviews it’ll probably be a kaiju sized hit.

[leoh]

4 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Ghostbusters

 

Thursday 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
644	4725	130107	3.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

466

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

85

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-3

(0.554x) of Dune 2 $5.15M  

(2.081x) of Argylle $3.54M  

 

Comps average: $4.35M 

 

Looks like yesterday was just a fluke @leoh 

wow this is good, improving against Dune T-3 is a big deal, Dune T3 was right after its Sunday previews.

 

But what surprises me the most is how little it was against Argylle T-3. lol Anyways Idk if Argylle is a good comp tbh.
 

I have a feeling your comp with Dune 2 will be the one which will nail it, like you have been doing for a long time now. So I’d stick with Dune comp (and forget Argylle). @TheFlatLannister

 

I mean like I said to @M37 earlier today, all things considered (I mention them earlier), I’m pretty sure Ghostbusters Frozen Empire will make more than 40M OW domestically, and I can see why Deadline reported it’ll make between 47M and 52M OW domestically. (I have two friends who have already watched it and it seems it’s a really good movie).

I’m looking forward to new @Shawn Robbins projection. I think it’ll def have an increase from the last one. I’m also waiting for a @Porthos update.

I’m not an industry guy, but I have studied cinema for years now. And what I can safely say is that Ghostbusters is part of American Culture for decades now. American audience fidelity is why these movies carry on being produced. It’s one of the few franchises that you can safely bet it’ll always make more than 100M domestically whenever it comes out, even if during a pandemic (literally ).
 

Anyways, we’ll find out soon  

Edited March 19 by leoh

[VanillaSkies]

10 hours ago, filmlover said:

The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare looks like an obvious sub-$20M total grosser.

I'm actually quite looking forward to it. 
I loved The Gentlemen and am hoping this has the same vibe. 

[dallas]

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-3

Tickets Sold: 304 (+77 since T-8)

Growth: 34%

% PLF: 39%

5 theaters/31 showtimes

 

Comps:

(1.067x) of Dune 2 - $9.92 Million

(1.854x) of Aquaman 2 - $8.34 Million

COMPS AVG - $9.13 Million

 

I don't know why this is doing so well in my area lol. There must be a ton of Ghostbuster fans here. 

[dallas]

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-10

Tickets Sold: 132 (+69 since T-15)

Growth: 110%

% PLF: 35%

5 theaters/30 showtimes

 

Comps:

(0.978x) of Aquaman 2 - $4.40 Million

(0.936x) of Dune 2 - $8.70 Million

COMPS AVG - $6.55 Million

 

Doing pretty solid here. Not sure I'm seeing $60M+ yet but a $50M weekend is likely.