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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

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On 3/17/2024 at 8:50 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire MTC1

Previews(T-4) - 31646/543621 546484.66 2788 shows +2407

Friday - 24037/631431 404205.05 3297 shows +2984

 

FYI Afterlife at T-4. Previews are up around 10%(ignoring early BO which was around 350K) while Friday is down around 10%. 

 

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire MTC1

Previews(T-3) - 35911/600694 613307.75 3162 shows +4265

Friday - 28366/705304 470629.58 3769 shows +4329 

 

Really good day. Thinking 5m previews is in play and low 40s OW at this point. Pace has picked up really well past 3 days. 

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On 3/17/2024 at 10:14 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire MTC1

Previews(T-11) -  27724/557136 544201.30 2913 shows +1619

Friday - 23866/836336 447822.34 4387 shows +2109

 

I think this must be the bottom of daily PS rate. It should amp up over next week for sure. 

 

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire MTC1

Previews(T-10) - 29591/558483 579206.4 2925 shows +1867

Friday - 25764/836258 482535.56 4383 shows +1898

 

 

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22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire — Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-11 days and counting

 

 

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

0

126

19046

19863

817

4.11%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

64

 

T-11 Comps

 

   

%

 

Sold
T-12

Total

Sold

 

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

 

Final

Sold

% of

Final

 

 

Comp

BA

76.07

 

44

1074

 

0/146

20993/22067

4.87%

 

4494

18.18%

 

6.54m

Wick 4

61.29

 

49

1333

 

0/95

12458/13791

9.67%

 

5448

15.00%

 

5.45m

Fast X

67.19

 

48

1216

 

0/178

26494/27710

4.39%

 

4122

19.82%

 

5.04m

AtSV

36.36

 

93

2247

 

0/129

18539/20786

10.81%

 

9744

8.38%

 

6.31m

RotB

83.54

 

62

978

 

0/120

18459/19437

5.03%

 

9744

8.38%

 

7.35m

FNAF

38.04

 

80

2148

 

0/102

13123/15271

14.07%

 

6466

12.64%

 

3.92m

BOSS

163.40

 

69

500

 

0/82

12039/12539

3.99%

 

2701

30.25%

 

9.40m

GBFE

158.03

 

8

517

 

0/116

19299/19816

2.61%

 

——

——%

 

0.00m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Godzilla x Kong's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

Regal:      160/7318  [2.19% sold]
Matinee:    17/2085  [0.82% | 2.08% of all tickets sold]
3D:            72/4642  [1.55% | 8.81% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        524/8686  [6.03% | 64.14% of all tickets sold]

 

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire — Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-10 days and counting

 

 

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

0

126

18983

19863

880

4.43%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

63

 

T-10 Comps

 

   

%

 

Sold
T-12

Total

Sold

 

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

 

Final

Sold

% of

Final

 

 

Comp

BA

78.50

 

47

1121

 

0/148

21302/22423

5.00%

 

4494

19.58%

 

6.74m

Wick 4

63.22

 

59

1392

 

0/95

12399/13791

10.09%

 

5448

16.15%

 

5.63m

Fast X

67.80

 

82

1298

 

0/178

26412/27710

4.68%

 

4122

21.35%

 

5.08m

AtSV

36.65

 

154

2401

 

0/129

18385/20786

11.55%

 

9744

9.03%

 

6.36m

RotB

86.79

 

36

1014

 

0/120

18423/19437

5.22%

 

9744

9.03%

 

7.64m

FNAF

38.23

 

154

2302

 

0/102

12969/15271

15.07%

 

6466

13.61%

 

3.94m

BOSS

150.17

 

86

586

 

0/82

11953/12539

4.67%

 

2701

32.58%

 

8.63m

GBFE

160.00

 

33

550

 

0/116

19266/19816

2.78%

 

——

——%

 

0.00m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Godzilla x Kong's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:        177/7318  [2.42% sold]
Matinee:    20/2085  [0.96% | 2.27% of all tickets sold]
3D:             71/4642  [1.53% | 8.07% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        548/8686  [6.31% | 62.27% of all tickets sold]

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On 3/15/2024 at 12:45 AM, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire Sacramento Report [T-7]

684/20724 (3.30% sold) [+61 tickets] [123 showtimes]

 

0.92935x GBA at T-7         [4.73m] [adj'ed for ATP hikes since 2021]
0.74836x Sonic 2 at T-7    [4.68m]
0.48962x BA at T-7           [3.72m]
0.39220x Wick 4 at T-7     [3.49m]
0.46216x  Fast X at T-7     [3.47m]
0.54329x RotB at T-7        [4.78m]
0.83111x  BOSS at T-7       [4.78m]
1.40741x  Wonka at T-7     [4.93m]
0.90119x  Aqua 2 at T-7    [4.06m]

 

====

 

Yeaaaah, warned y'all this was a possibility a few days ago when I found out the embargo release strategy.  Not liking the odds at 5m+ right now. 

 

Now it should be said, this might have a stronger push at the very end than some of the comped films thanks to a later review bump.  But, then again, trying to disentangle late review bounce from normal GA accelerated buying is... tricky even in the best of circumstances.

 

See how it goes, I suppose.  Next update at T-3.

 

Quick and Dirty Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire Sacramento Report [T-3]

980/27659 (3.02% sold) [+134 tickets] [192 showtimes]

 

0.83263x GBA at T-3           [4.24m] [adj'ed for ATP hikes since 2021]
0.60123x Sonic 2 at T-3      [3.76m]
0.45120x BA at T-3              [3.43m]
0.37023x Wick 4 at T-3       [3.30m]
0.47665x Fast X at T-3        [3.57m]
0.49545x RotB at T-3          [4.36m]
0.74924x BOSS at T-3         [4.31m]
1.13426x Wonka at T-3        [3.97m]
0.90239x Aqua 2 at T-3       [4.06m]

 

=======

 

Eh.

 

Not much movement at all from comps from yesterday.  For those curious:

 

0.85025x GBA at T-4        [4.33m] [adj'ed for ATP hikes since 2021]
0.62160x Sonic 2 at T-4    [3.89m]
0.44857x BA at T-4           [3.41m]
0.36703x Wick 4 at T-4    [3.27m]
0.47157x Fast X at T-4      [3.54m]
0.49882x RotB at T-4       [4.39m]
0.75334x BOSS at T-4      [4.33m]
1.18987x Wonka at T-4     [4.16m]
0.90968x Aqua 2 at T-4   [4.09m]

 

Wonka comp did move up a skosh, OTOH, the GBA comp went down a skosh. But also random noise can be random. 

 

All in all, no real movement to speak of.

 

Still, tomorrow is the real acid test.  'till then while I have opinions on where this is gunna land, at least for previews, I'm open to them being adjusted depending on just how well it does T and W.

 

Edited by Porthos
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23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-4, Thursday previews,

 

Total Sales: 83

New Sales: 7

Growth: 9%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 22

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 3.8

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 1/1

Late Afternoon: 7/6

Early Evening: 68/8

Late Evening: 7/8

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 57/10
IMAX:9/5
VIP: 15/5

4DX: 2/3

 

Comps

0.283x HG:BoSS for $1.6M

0.289x Madame Web for $1.7M 

0.610x Aquaman 2 for $2.7M

0.102x Dune 2 for $1.0M

0.160x The Marvels for $1.0M

1.153x Wonka for $4.0M

Average: $2.0M

 

Still trending down.

 

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-3, Thursday previews,

 

Total Sales: 89

New Sales: 6

Growth: 7%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 22

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 4.0

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 1/1

Late Afternoon: 8/6

Early Evening: 73/8

Late Evening: 7/8

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 57/10
IMAX:12/5
VIP: 18/5

4DX: 2/3

 

Comps

0.276x HG:BoSS for $1.6M

0.261x Madame Web for $1.6M 

0.511x Aquaman 2 for $2.3M

0.095x Dune 2 for $1.0M

0.156x The Marvels for $1.0M

0.989x Wonka for $3.5M

Average: $1.8M

 

It keeps sinking. It's staying in single digit growth a few days out, despite a low baseline. 

 

This is shaping up to be one of the largest low end outliers for my market if numbers align to what others are seeing.

 

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23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire, western GTA (Southern Ontario),, T-11, Thursday Previews 

 

Total Sales: 169

New Sales: 12

Growth: 8%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 9.9

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 34/3

Early Evening: 93/7

Late Evening: 42/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 2/1

Dolby 3D: 79/6
VIP: 26/4

4DX: 24/3

IMAX: 38/3

 

Comps (switched to T minus)

1.280x HG: BoSS for $7.4M

2.641x Madame Web for $16.0M

4.447x Aquaman 2 for $20.0M

3.073x GB:FE for ???

Average: $14.5M

 

Staying steady.

 

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire, western GTA (Southern Ontario),, T-10, Thursday Previews 

 

Total Sales: 181

New Sales: 12

Growth: 7%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 10.6

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 36/3

Early Evening: 101/7

Late Evening: 44/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 2/1

Dolby 3D: 84/6
VIP: 28/4

4DX: 25/3

IMAX: 42/3

 

Comps

1.223x HG: BoSS for $7.0M

2.235x Madame Web for $13.5M

3.694x Aquaman 2 for $16.6M

3.232x GB:FE for ???

Average: $12.4M

 

While it's doing well, especially compared to Ghostbusters, it still continues to fall against comps. It got to such a hot start, so it's still comping well, but we'll need to see if and when this stabilizes. I thought Aquaman would have been a good comp for me due to similar sales period in this market, but it hasn't been a consistent comparison.

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Tickets are now on sale for the Spider-Man re-releases and I'm actually surprised they are one night only events for Mondays? I imagine if those shows fill up (the Maguire trilogy seem like the most obvious ones to do so) they'll add more days/shows.

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11 hours ago, misterpepp said:

I've got First Omen going on sale March 29, but a pal of mine still thinks this could go on sale sooner. Let's call this one tentative for now.

 

Also @katnisscinnaplex thanks for updating the Google Drive spreadsheet! :)

Glad to finally have time to do it!  Sorry I left you hanging for so long.

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Expected MTC1 targets for GBFE

 

T-3 = 36K (current)

T-2 = ~41K (+5K)

T-1 = ~49K (+8K)

T-F = ~79K (+30K)

 

That would be +120% growth through finish, on pace with the Wonka/Aqua2/JWD grouping it has been tracking very steadily (both GBFE and Wonka are exactly +39.9% from T-7 to T-3), and slightly below the Mermaid/ATSV/Fast X range (+135%). The final day (T-1 to T-F) should be under +70% growth, expected around +62% (or +67% if it follows the Mermaid grouping). Only true family films (like KFP4) and horror finish stronger than that for Thursday. Around 80K total tickets would suggest a $4.5M preview total

 

Maybe a $5 T-Mobile burst - which should be evident if next two days are exceeding the targets above - coupled with a higher PSM (lower MTC1 index) can get all the way to $5M, but I'm fairly skeptical. 

 

From my vantage point, $4.5M +/- $0.3 seems to be the trajectory, though with a lower confidence level/higher uncertainty than usual

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22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Ghostbusters: FE T-3 Jax 6 64 25 282 10,396 2.71%
    Phx 6 53 23 224 9,018 2.48%
    Ral 8 48 17 231 6,936 3.33%
  Total   20 165 65 737 26,350 2.80%
Immaculate T-3 Jax 4 6 6 15 578 2.60%
    Phx 4 6 1 3 580 0.52%
    Ral 6 10 9 13 626 2.08%
  Total   14 22 16 31 1,784 1.74%
Luca (Re-OD) T-4 Jax 3 8 4 4 455 0.88%
    Phx 2 3 2 2 205 0.98%
    Ral 4 8 3 3 580 0.52%
  Total   9 19 9 9 1,240 0.73%

 

Ghosts T-3 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .97x (3.01m)

 - Shazam 2 - 1.15x (3.9m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.19x (4.9m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .493x (2.76m)

 - MI:7 (Total) - .409x (3.6m)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife (Total) - .791x (3.56m)

 - Uncharted - 1.09x (4.03m)

 - Indiana Jones - .54x (3.88m)

 - Transformers (Total) - .437x (3.84m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 3.86m

 

A couple other movies that may be comps, but I'm not committing to the model yet

 - Nope - .902x (5.77m)

 - Morbius - .657x (3.75m)
 

Movie 3-day pace Prev 3-day Prev 3-day Last Day
Ghostbusters: FE 48.59% 19.96% 8.31% 9.67%
Haunted M Total 49.31% 26.33% 18.93% 17.28%
Shazam 2 23.94% 10.04% 8.37% 11.46%
Suicide Squad 45.18% 25.65% 11.39% 20.27%
Transformers Total 37.57% - - 12.38%
Turtles Total 63.86% 29.79% 15.13% 22.22%
M:I 7 Total 50.33% 20.45% 14.27% 15.67%
Ghostbusters Total - - - 16.06%
Uncharted 27.31% 24.11% - -
Indiana Jones 37.01% 14.74% 12.35% 8.93%

 

Back down to earth a little from yesterday so I think the late pull did affect some things.  Pace is still looking good and should get even better with the T-Mobile deal coming.  Keep in mind that I don't include any ATP or inflation adjustments so all of my comps will likely undershoot.

 

Immaculate T-3 comps

 - Night House - 1.72x (448k)

 - Men - .47x (199k)

 - Firestarter - .419x (157k)

 - Imaginary - .403x (292k)

 - X - .484x (213k)

 - Antlers - .775x (287k)

 - The Invitation - .756x (586k)

 - Infinity Pool - .756x

 

Size adjusted comps - 378k

 

Luca (OD) T-4 comps

 - Strange World - .205x (164k)

 - Ruby Gillman - .225x (163k)

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Ghostbusters: FE T-2 Jax 6 61 48 330 9,898 3.33%
    Phx 6 57 52 276 9,363 2.95%
    Ral 8 48 47 278 6,936 4.01%
  Total   20 166 147 884 26,197 3.37%
Immaculate T-2 Jax 4 7 0 15 640 2.34%
    Phx 4 6 8 11 580 1.90%
    Ral 6 10 3 16 632 2.53%
  Total   14 23 11 42 1,852 2.27%
Late Night Devil T-2 Jax 2 6 5 5 279 1.79%
    Phx 2 5 34 34 253 13.44%
    Ral 1 2 7 7 100 7.00%
  Total   5 13 46 46 632 7.28%
Luca (Re-OD) T-3 Jax 3 8 0 4 455 0.88%
    Phx 2 3 0 2 205 0.98%
    Ral 4 8 0 3 580 0.52%
  Total   9 19 0 9 1,240 0.73%

 

Ghosts T-2 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .964x (2.99m)

 - Shazam 2 - 1.24x (4.2m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.21x (4.96m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .566x (3.17m)

 - MI:7 (Total) - .43x (3.78m)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife (Total) - .785x (3.53m)

 - Uncharted - 1.14x (4.2m)

 - Indiana Jones - .537x (3.87m)

 - Transformers (Total) - .448x (3.94m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 3.95m

 

A couple other movies that may be comps, but I'm not committing to the model yet

 - Nope - .857x (5.48m)

 - Morbius - .623x (3.55m)
 

Movie 3-day pace Prev 3-day Prev 3-day Last Day
Ghostbusters: FE 57.30% 23.84% 14.95% 19.95%
Haunted M Total 57.83% 30.12% 20.44% 20.66%
Shazam 2 30.47% 11.13% 8.01% 11.37%
Suicide Squad 54.33% 27.70% 14.04% 18.31%
Turtles Total 51.95% 31.71% 20.80% 4.41%
M:I 7 Total 54.24% 25.43% 14.08% 14.16%
Ghostbusters Total - - 20.07% 20.82%
Uncharted - - - 15.09%
Indiana Jones 45.66% 23.27% 9.11% 20.50%
Transformers Total - - - 16.88%

 

Another solid day, right on track with comps.  Pace is still looking good and should get even better with the T-Mobile deal coming.  Keep in mind that I don't include any ATP or inflation adjustments so all of my comps will likely undershoot.

 

Immaculate T-2 comps

 - Night House - 1.75x (455k)

 - Men - .447x (189k)

 - Firestarter - .472x (177k)

 - Imaginary - .462x (335k)

 - X - .472x (208k)

 - Antlers - .7x (259k)

 - The Invitation - .627x (486k)

 - Infinity Pool - .75x

 

Size adjusted comps - 362k

 

Late Night with the Devil T-2 comps

 - Night House - 1.917x (498k)

 - Immaculate - 1.095x

 - Antlers - .767x (284k)

 - Prey for the Devil - .613x (405k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 389k

 

I would be shocked if this made enough to get reported.  I'm only seeing this in around 300 US theaters so far, but after checking a couple of shows I decided to run it.  Already more tickets sold than Immaculate is impressive though!

 

Luca (OD) T-3 comps

 - Strange World - .158x (126k)

 - Ruby Gillman - .188x (136k)

 - Rons Gone Wrong - .529x (127k)

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23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Godzilla x Kong T-10 Jax 5 53 21 192 9,702 1.98%
    Phx 6 39 11 236 7,067 3.34%
    Ral 8 55 13 175 7,740 2.26%
  Total   19 147 45 603 24,509 2.46%

 

T-10 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .222x (3.78m)

 - TMNT (Total) - 1.01x (5.65m)

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .668x (5.88m)
 - Venom 2 - .896x (10.39m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.99x (8.19m)

 - Jurassic World 3 - .248x (4.38m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - 1.075x (6.72m)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife (Total) - 1.26x (5.69m)

 - Ghostbusters Frozen - 1.608x

 

Size adjusted comps - 6.64m

 

Better increase than most comps for T-10.

 

(Transformers I started tracking at T-7)

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Godzilla x Kong T-9 Jax 5 53 20 212 9,702 2.19%
    Phx 6 39 21 257 7,067 3.64%
    Ral 8 55 14 189 7,740 2.44%
  Total   19 147 55 658 24,509 2.68%

 

T-9 comps

 - TMNT (Total) - 1.027x (5.75m)

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .69x (6.08m)
 - Venom 2 - .914x (10.6m)

 - Suicide Squad - 2.08x (8.54m)

 - Jurassic World 3 - .253x (4.47m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - 1.049x (6.56m)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife (Total) - missed

 - Ghostbusters Frozen - 1.657x

 

Size adjusted comps - 7.09m

 

(Transformers I started tracking at T-7)

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58 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Tickets are now on sale for the Spider-Man re-releases and I'm actually surprised they are one night only events for Mondays? I imagine if those shows fill up (the Maguire trilogy seem like the most obvious ones to do so) they'll add more days/shows.


“I imagine if those shows fill up”

 

“they'll add more days/shows”

 

you don’t need “imagine” it, it’s already a reality. Most of the shows are already almost sold out, in NY over 90% of tickets sold in the first 12 hours.

 

and yes locations are starting to add new shows. For example, Alamo Drafthouse sold out within the first hour and already added 2 more shows. Which are almost sold out as well. Lol


And we have to keep in mind this is Monday exclusive shows, the weakest day for cinema industry BO.

 

I don’t know what Sony had in mind, but they should know they’re rereleasing in such a limited way (around 2K locations only) all movies sequels for the most popular character in cinema industry. Spider-man related movies have collectively grossed 10.5 billion ww. If we don’t count MCU as a single franchise, Spider-Man is the biggest one.


Even Shrek will have one whole week of rerelease. Were they thinking Tobey movies were not hugely popular anymore? 

 

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1 hour ago, el sid said:

Today I can't write something in here from my PC ☹️. And the reports are way too long to do it with my Smartphone. What could be the problem? 


here it’s working perfectly 

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Afterlife had very strong walkups as well. That is why I am expecting better that what its looking projection at this point. Plus stronger boost with Tmobile deal compared to 2021 when certain segment of audience were reluctant to go to theaters. 

 

That said something in 4s is the most likely scenario.  

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Ghostbusters Frozen Empire

Toronto and Montreal Canada

Thurs Mar 21 Fri Mar 22 (T-3)

 

Toronto # theatre #show Seats Sold Seats Rem Ttl seat Percent
Thurs 4 23 95 5966 6061 0.0156
Fri 4 31 141 6251 6392 0.0220
             
Montreal # theatre #show Seats Sold Seats Rem Ttl seat Percent
Thurs 3 12 48 2776 2824 0.0169
Fri 3 15 132 3642 3774 0.0349

 

Strangeness-but that 1 Wed show at 7pm I posted last time seems to have disappeared ? More canada crazyness  (or I am...well that goes without saying....ahem)

 

Meant to do Van and Calgary, will see about getting them tonight.

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

T Mobile deal so T-2 & T-1 jumps be bigger

36
~44+
~52++
~80+

They very well may be, but wanted to set a baseline so that any bonus effect could be visible 

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