The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[emoviefan]

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

So far nothing i have seen is showing Apes as a huge breakout. But with so much time to go to release, it could change. Trailers look great to me. 

I mean that's the thing with these really early presale starts. Like this and the Fall Guy. Who is buying tickets this far out anyway. With the MCU bubble bursting what movies are going to have people chomping at the bit to get tickets super early.

[keysersoze123]

On 3/31/2024 at 10:40 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Civil War MTC1

Early Shows(4/8) - 3779/9257 86228.21 29 shows

Previews - 11840/335115 240427.94 1655 shows

Friday - 8333/554769 164342.59 2674 shows

 

Week worth of presales. Probably looking at highest OW for the month. Thinking 2ish previews and high teens OW for now. 

Civil War MTC1

Early Shows(4/8) - 4198/9257 95079.02 29 shows 

Previews(T-9) - 13879/335186 281098.91 1653 shows +2039

Friday - 10048/555658 198706.00 2674 shows +1715

 

Definitely moving along at this point. 2.5m ish preview at this point. 20m+ OW is in play. 

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Monkey Man MTC1

Previews(T-3) - 15796/165754 284736.78 1173 shows +2856 

Friday - 12124/307921 213918.82 2109 shows +2740

 

Solid boost today. Let us see how rest of the week goes. ~2m previews is what its looking like. 

Monkey Man MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 18409/195085 330037.91 1399 shows +2613

Friday - 15209/429512 264384.69 2997 shows +3085

 

Another movie that slowed down after solid boost on Monday 🙂

[charlie Jatinder]

20 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Monkey Man MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 18409/195085 330037.91 1399 shows +2613

Friday - 15209/429512 264384.69 2997 shows +3085

 

Another movie that slowed down after solid boost on Monday 🙂

Expected better when trailer exploded but sales are for single digit weekend in MiniTC2. MTC1 is better than that but only low double digit.

Edited April 3 by charlie Jatinder

[lorddemaxus]

Makes sense. Really feels like the movie's buzz was heavily concentrated in small online circles. Feel like the heavily Indian aspect turns off your average action-movie watcher and doesn't seem like something an Indian from any region of the country would go for either. Could see a John Wick type performance here tho.

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

Makes sense. Really feels like the movie's buzz was heavily concentrated in small online circles. Feel like the heavily Indian aspect turns off your average action-movie watcher and doesn't seem like something an Indian from any region of the country would go for either. Could see a John Wick type performance here tho.

Kind of said this a few weeks ago. Despite this having much stronger reviews the same crowd that saw the Beekeeper won't go see this. It is what it is I guess. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Monkey Man MiniTC2 T-2 Days

 

THU - 203/14799 (71 showings)
FRI - 179/39813 (181 showings)

 

Comps

Argylle - $1.17M THU & $1.5M FRI

Beekeeper - $1.55M FRI
Expendables 4 - $1.17M THU & $1.67M FRI

 

THU sales are okay but FRI is poor. Guess this will overindex heavily in MTC1.

[whatsupdoc]

Every quarter, The Quorum looks back to see how accurate our forecasts have been. We also measure our forecasts against others in the marketplace. The link below shows how The Quourm's forecasts stack up against BoxOfficePro. In some weeks, The Quorum is more accurate, and BOP is closer in other weeks. Across the entire quarter, The Quorum was slightly more precise when using a regression best-fit model. Though it's close.

 

Here are The Quorum's correlations for 2024 to date. 

 

Correlation between AWARENESS and Opening Weekend: 82%

Correlation between INTEREST and Opening Weekend: 75%

Correlation between LOCATION and Opening Weekend: 82%

Correlation between PAY and Opening Weekend: 75%

 

You can see TQ vs. BOP here: 

https://thequorum.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Screenshot-2024-04-03-at-12.19.26 AM.png

 

The Quorum makes its initial box office projection at six weeks out. That forecasts changes over the six week journey to release. It's important to remember, that forecasts reflect a moment in time. They fluctuate up until the day of release. 

 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

18 minutes ago, whatsupdoc said:

You can see TQ vs. BOP here: 

https://thequorum.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Screenshot-2024-04-03-at-12.19.26 AM.png

Are these final prediction comparison day before release or so? I don't think tracking should be judged by that because by then pre-sales are already out.

Will like to see how TQ, BOP and NRG compares say 6 weeks or 3 weeks out.

 

Edit:

 

Based on your previous post, 6 & 3 weeks out forecast for major films.

https://thequorum.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/6WOFTR-03.01.24.pdf

Dune 2 - $42-49M & $58-65M - ❌

KFP 4 - $46-53M & $46-53M - Acceptable
Imaginary - $18-22M & $14-17M - ❌

Arthur - $13-16M & $13-16M - ❌

Ghostbusters - $50-57M & $50-57M - ❌

Godzilla - $46-53M - ❌

 

Only 1 title had an acceptable result I think. Not really a good track record IMO.

 

In comparison BO Pro, using 3 weeks out. BO Pro rangers are unreasonably big so will be using their midpoints and +/- 5%.

Dune 2 - $61-69M - somewhat acceptable

KFP 4 - $33-37M - ❌

Imaginary - 16-19M - ❌

Arthur - $13-16M - ❌

Ghostbusters - 39-45M - ✅

Godzilla - $43-50M - ❌

 

One Win for BO Pro, One acceptable. Rest pretty much same for other 3 titles and 1 big miss compared to Quorum.

Edited April 3 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

.

 

Edited April 3 by charlie Jatinder

[Joyous Legion]

Hadn’t really been paying attention to either but this was a rough quarter for both huh. KFP Dune GxK blew up relative to expectations and rest face planted.

[vafrow]

On 4/2/2024 at 6:06 AM, vafrow said:

 

Monkey Man, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-3, Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 93

New Sales : 11

Growth: 13%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 10

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 9.3

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 71/5

Late Evening: 22/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 57/8

Dolby: 36/2

 

Comps

0.288x HG: BoSS for $1.7M

0.534x Aquaman 2 for $2.4M

0.100x Dune 2 for $1,0M

Average: $1.7M

 

Okay day. A little bit of a step back after a good three day run. I'll chalk it up to buying patterns impacted by the long weekend.

 

 

 

Monkey Man, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-2, Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 114

New Sales : 21

Growth: 23%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 10

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 11.4

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 81/5

Late Evening: 33/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 73/8

Dolby: 41/2

 

Comps

0.312x HG: BoSS for $1.8M

0.489x Aquaman 2 for $2.2M

0.107x Dune 2 for $1.1M

Average: $1.7M

 

Okay day. It had better jumps on the weekend. I was hoping it would return to that, but it's still stsyig solid. Hopefully it has good walk ups over the next 36 hours or so.

 

 

[vafrow]

I was hoping to check in on Kingdom of the POTA, but MTC4 seems to have really messed up the listings for it.

 

There's separate listings by format, so you have to search both for IMAX showings and other plf showings, so you can't easily see all showtimes for it. It's not a big deal, but, just an extra pain

 But, the site also seems to be glitching where you can't get into the seat preview for the show without going through the motions of buying a ticket. All that to say that I'm not keen enough to check it out with the extra steps involved.

[katnisscinnaplex]

Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare tickets on sale with 6pm shows.  EA on 4/13

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
First Omen	T-2	Jax	5	11	4	12	1,571	0.76%
		Phx	6	12	9	26	1,681	1.55%
		Ral	7	13	6	14	1,351	1.04%
	Total		18	36	19	52	4,603	1.13%
Monkey Man	T-2	Jax	6	20	20	60	2,892	2.07%
		Phx	6	16	14	84	1,875	4.48%
		Ral	8	17	20	67	1,888	3.55%
	Total		20	53	54	211	6,655	3.17%
Someone Like You	T-0	Jax	5	10	5	65	892	7.29%
		Phx	6	12	1	18	1,316	1.37%
		Ral	6	15	4	41	1,213	3.38%
	Total		17	37	10	124	3,421	3.62%

 

Someone Like You T-0 adjusted comps*

- I Wanna Dance - .312x (233k)

 - Respect - .827x (570k)

 - Downton Abbey - .208x (223k)

 - 80 for Brady - .425x (318k)

All drama - 321k

All PG - 430k

All movies - 266k

 

Size adjusted comps - 585k

Growth rate forecast - 262k

 

I removed the EA from comps and went to previews only.  Growth rate has been pretty bad despite good early sales in a few places.  This is also Tuesday so there could be discounted tickets too.  I'll go with 300k for the day.

 

Monkey Man T-2 adjusted comps

 - Violent Night - 1.379x (1.55m)

 - Cocaine Bear - .655x (1.31m)

 - Equalizer 3 - .466x (1.45m)

 - Strays (Total) - 1.166x (1.28m)

 - Black Phone (Total) - .471x (1.45m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .269x (1.27m)

 - Green Knight - 1.302x (1.04m)

 - Beast - 1.87x (1.77m)

 - 65 - 1.327x (1.63m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.41m

 

First Omen T-2 adjusted comps

 - Talk to Me - .377x (469k)

 - Last Voyage - .38x (285k)

- Don't Breathe 2 - 1x (1.02m)

 - Forever Purge - .51x (718k)

 - Escape Room 2 - .51x (648k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.06m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
First Omen	T-1	Jax	5	15	1	13	1,815	0.72%
		Phx	6	13	8	34	1,850	1.84%
		Ral	8	16	3	17	1,702	1.00%
	Total		19	44	12	64	5,367	1.19%
Monkey Man	T-1	Jax	6	25	5	65	3,274	1.99%
		Phx	6	19	33	117	2,035	5.75%
		Ral	8	23	10	77	2,424	3.18%
	Total		20	67	48	259	7,733	3.35%

 

Monkey Man T-1 adjusted comps

 - Violent Night - 1.363x (1.54m)

 - Cocaine Bear - .62x (1.24m)

 - Equalizer 3 - .45x (1.4m)

 - Strays (Total) - 1.016x (1.18m)

 - Black Phone (Total) - .445x (1.37m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .259x (1.22m)

 - Green Knight - 1.116x (888k)

 - Beast - 1.56x (1.48m)

 - 65 - 1.183x (1.45m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.28m

 

Worse than all comps yesterday.  Should be under 1.5m for previews

 

First Omen T-1 adjusted comps

 - Talk to Me - .26x (324k)

 - Last Voyage - .37x (277k)

 - Don't Breathe 2 - .736x (752k)

 - Forever Purge - .474x (668k)

 - Escape Room 2 - .427x (543k)

 - Immaculate - .914x (503k)

 - Antlers - .877x (344k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 532k

 

The only two horror movies I've tracked with fewer sales by T-1 are Night House (260k) and Umma (unreported).  It's even behind Late Night with the Devil (unreported). 

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Civil War	T-9	Jax	6	35	5	28	6,366	0.44%
		Phx	6	19	16	51	4,009	1.27%
		Ral	8	23	10	40	2,957	1.35%
	Total		20	77	31	119	13,332	0.89%
Suga	T-8	Jax	3	7	0	128	1,574	8.13%
		Phx	4	5	8	181	992	18.25%
		Ral	5	9	-2	140	1,380	10.14%
	Total		12	21	6	449	3,946	11.38%

 

 

Civil War T-9 adjusted comps

 - NTTD (Total) - .174x (1.37m)

 - Elvis - .418x (1.61m)

 - Equalizer 3 - .773x (2.94m)

 

*No EA shows in the theaters I track

 

Suga T-8 adjusted comps

 - Heard the Bells - 1.223x (1.14m)

 - One Piece - .961x (1.67m)

 - Left Behind - 2.974x (2.14m)

 - Dragon Ball - .546x (2.4m)

 - Demon Slayer 2 - .437x (2.18m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Civil War	T-8	Jax	6	34	2	30	6,236	0.48%
		Phx	6	20	2	53	4,163	1.27%
		Ral	8	19	5	45	2,513	1.79%
	Total		20	73	9	128	12,912	0.99%
Suga	T-7	Jax	3	7	6	134	1,574	8.51%
		Phx	4	5	1	182	992	18.35%
		Ral	5	6	1	140	846	16.55%
	Total		12	18	8	456	3,412	13.36%

 

Civil War T-8 adjusted comps

 - NTTD (Total) - .168x (1.32m)

 - Elvis - .403x (1.56m)

 - Equalizer 3 - .656x (2.49m)

 

*No EA shows in the theaters I track

 

Suga T-7 adjusted comps

 - Heard the Bells - missed

 - One Piece - .931x (1.62m)

 - Left Behind - 2.698x (1.94m)

 - Dragon Ball - .522x (2.3m)

 - Demon Slayer 2 - .405x (2.02m)

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Spy x Family	T-16	Jax	5	18	2	30	1,938	1.55%
		Phx	6	17	5	31	3,774	0.82%
		Ral	6	19	6	26	1,734	1.50%
	Total		17	54	13	87	7,446	1.17%

 

T-16 adjusted comps

 - Dragon Ball - .155x (683k)

 - JJK:0 - .183x (540k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Spy x Family	T-15	Jax	5	18	9	39	1,938	2.01%
		Phx	6	17	0	31	3,774	0.82%
		Ral	6	17	0	26	1,510	1.72%
	Total		17	52	9	96	7,222	1.33%

 

T-15 adjusted comps

 - Dragon Ball - .164x (722k)

 - JJK:0 - .179x (529k)

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Kingdom of Apes	T-37	Jax	5	25	21	21	4,936	0.43%
		Phx	1	6	27	27	1,854	1.46%
		Ral	2	6	9	9	1,236	0.73%
	Total		8	37	57	57	8,026	0.71%
Kingdom of Apes (EA)	T-36	Jax	5	9	15	15	1,802	0.83%
		Phx	1	2	10	10	618	1.62%
		Ral	2	2	7	7	412	1.70%
	Total		8	13	32	32	2,832	1.13%

 

Day 1 comps

 - Godzilla x Kong - .237x (2.178m)

 - F9 - .327x (2.32m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .296x (1.66m)
 - Ghostbusters FE - .432x (1.9m)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife - .382x (1.58m)

 

Not a great start, but very far out and only PLF tickets are on sale so far.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Kingdom of Apes	T-36	Jax	5	25	-1	20	4,936	0.41%
		Phx	1	6	4	31	1,854	1.67%
		Ral	2	6	3	12	1,236	0.97%
	Total		8	37	6	63	8,026	0.78%
Kingdom of Apes (EA)	T-35	Jax	5	9	4	19	1,802	1.05%
		Phx	1	2	2	12	618	1.94%
		Ral	2	2	3	10	412	2.43%
	Total		8	13	9	41	2,832	1.45%

 

Day 2 comps

 - Godzilla x Kong - .239x (2.2m)

 - F9 - .306x (2.17m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .283x (1.58m)
 - Ghostbusters FE - .452x (1.99m)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife - .357x (1.48m)

 - Civil War - 1.962x

 - Fall Guy (Total) - 2.364x

 

Not a great start, but very far out and only PLF tickets are on sale so far.

[abracadabra1998]

20 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Size adjusted comps - 1.28m

 

 

Worse than all comps yesterday.  Should be under 1.5m for previews

Glad my update wasn’t an outlier, kinda whimpering to the finish line 

[emoviefan]

Really disappointing to see Monkey Man fall down at the end like this. As I said up above not surprising though. Shows that buzz from SWSW does not mean anything to most audiences if the movie does not appeal to them. Will see if Civil War continues it's momentum into next week and Fingers Crossed the Fall Guy breaks out in May and does not perform like The Lost City or Bullet Train in the end.