The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[ringedmortality]

18 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Thursday comp:

0.67x Trolls: $875k (17 theaters)

Monkey Man: Missed

0.42x Argylle: $710k (17 theaters)

0.21x Napoleon (TUE): $640k (17 theaters)

 

EA Comp:

0.4x Trolls Sat EA: $445k (17 theaters)

0.45x MI7 EA: $905k (17 theaters)

0.3x Dune Part 2 EA: $595k (17 theaters)

Brutal numbers for Warfare.

[dallas]

Very happy to see Civil War breaking out. It deserves it. 

[Cmasterclay]

4 minutes ago, dallas said:

Very happy to see Civil War breaking out. It deserves it. 

Usually not a fan of civil war breaking out, but in this case I agree.

[charlie Jatinder]

Civil War MiniTC2

 

Previews - 4438/30783 (114 showings) $60K

 

Really solid result with walkups. Normally would mean $3M but think will underindex here. $3.25-3.5M seems about right.

[CJohn]

7 hours ago, DAJK said:

Not so fast  Here’s what my crystal ball predicts:

 

Conventional tracking had this in mid-to-high teens. BOT tracking said low-20’s was possible. Thursday numbers come in, pretty good. Early Friday numbers come in. Could 30M be possible? Heck, 35? Expectations go up and up. 

 

The film is a bit frontloaded. Weekend estimate comes in at 31M. Actual comes in at 29.91M. Cue @CJohn proclaiming that movie theaters are dead, and the usual doom-and-gloom back-and-forth.

I love you too, and we all know where this is headed 

[vafrow]

On 4/11/2024 at 7:25 AM, vafrow said:

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, T-29 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA shows, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 14

New Sales: 1

Growth: 8%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 16

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.9

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 1/3

Early Evening: 13/7

Late Evening: 0/6

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 1/7

IMAX: 8/6

VIP: 5/3

 

EA shows 

Sales: 12

Theatres: 4

Showtimes: 4

New Sales: 0

 

The initial rush seems to be over. Not the greatest baseline, but we're still really far out.

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, T-28 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA shows, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 14

New Sales: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 16

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.9

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 1/3

Early Evening: 13/7

Late Evening: 0/6

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 1/7

IMAX: 8/6

VIP: 5/3

 

EA shows 

Sales: 12

Theatres: 4

Showtimes: 4

New Sales: 0

 

Zero sales day. 

 

What's interesting that's probably been in effect for a few weeks now, is that MTC4 has increased the premium for Dolby theatres. I'm pretty sure it was $3 not that long ago. It's now $5. There's been a baseline price increase not that long ago as well.

 

They also added a service fee for booking online tickets about a year ago that's been controversial, and being challenged by Canada's Competition Bureau as a form of drip pricing. This has been interesting, as it's been a pretty transparent way for the chain to increase revenues, but not adding it to the box office and sharing with studios.

 

I'm not sure if the various price increases has to do with anticipation of having to drop the service fee if they lose the lawsuit.

 

Regardless, this adds a twist to comps. Most big new releases still skew heavily to premium formats, and probably helps push up sales.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 4/11/2024 at 8:48 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Abigail	T-7	Jax	5	17	2	10	2,346	0.43%
		Phx	6	15	3	13	2,900	0.45%
		Ral	8	17	0	14	2,035	0.69%
	Total		19	49	5	37	7,281	0.51%
Spy x Family	T-7	Jax	5	16	7	73	1,658	4.40%
		Phx	6	18	11	78	3,928	1.99%
		Ral	8	22	1	60	2,036	2.95%
	Total		19	56	19	211	7,622	2.77%
Ungentlemanly	T-7	Jax	5	12	2	12	1,274	0.94%
		Phx	6	12	2	19	1,338	1.42%
		Ral	8	12	4	11	1,308	0.84%
	Total		19	36	8	42	3,920	1.07%
Ungentlemanly (EA)	T-2	Jax	3	4	5	114	383	29.77%
		Phx	5	6	20	97	665	14.59%
		Ral	4	4	2	118	467	25.27%
	Total		12	14	27	329	1,515	21.72%

 

Spy x Family T-7 adjusted comps

 - Dragon Ball - .241x (1.06m)

 - JJK:0 - missed

 - Demon Slayer 2 - .188x (934k)

 - One PIece - .431x (748k)

 

Ministry of Ungentlemanly... T-2 adjusted comps (EA)

- NTTD (EA) - missed

 - Top Gun 2 (EA) - .205x (792k)

 - Barbie (EA) - .503x (563k)

 - M:I 7 (EA) - .509x (501k)

 - TMNT (EA) - .471x (825k)

 - Transformers (EA) - .522x (783k)

 

Size adjusted average - 551k (NTTD brings the average up)

 

EA had new sales in almost all shows

 

Ministry of Ungentlemanly... T-7 adjusted comps (Previews)

 - Snake Eyes - .525x (639k)

 - Equalizer 3 - .19x (592k)

 - Turtles - .136x (462k)

 

Abigail T-7 comps

 - Talk to Me - .822x (1.02m)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Insidious 5 - .27x (1.35m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Abigail	T-6	Jax	5	16	4	14	2,051	0.68%
		Phx	6	15	0	13	2,900	0.45%
		Ral	8	17	-1	13	1,989	0.65%
	Total		19	48	3	40	6,940	0.58%
Spy x Family	T-6	Jax	5	16	2	75	1,658	4.52%
		Phx	6	18	0	78	3,928	1.99%
		Ral	8	22	6	66	2,036	3.24%
	Total		19	56	8	219	7,622	2.87%
Ungentlemanly	T-6	Jax	5	11	2	14	997	1.40%
		Phx	6	12	1	20	1,338	1.49%
		Ral	8	11	3	14	1,139	1.23%
	Total		19	34	6	48	3,474	1.38%
Ungentlemanly (EA)	T-1	Jax	3	4	12	126	383	32.90%
		Phx	5	6	22	119	665	17.89%
		Ral	4	4	32	150	467	32.12%
	Total		12	14	66	395	1,515	26.07%

 

Spy x Family T-6 adjusted comps

 - Dragon Ball - .23x (1.01m)

 - JJK:0 - missed

 - Demon Slayer 2 - .183x (909k)

 - One Piece - .433x (751k)

 

Ministry of Ungentlemanly... T-1 adjusted comps (EA)

- NTTD (EA) - missed

 - Top Gun 2 (EA) - .229x (886k)

 - Barbie (EA) - .598x (657k)

 - M:I 7 (EA) - .531x (522k)

 - TMNT (EA) - .495x (866k)

 - Transformers (EA) - .54x (811k)

 

Size adjusted average - 580k (NTTD brings the average up)

 

Ministry of Ungentlemanly... T-6 adjusted comps (Previews)

 - Snake Eyes - .505x (615k)

 - Equalizer 3 - .19x (594k)

 - Turtles - .136x (462k)

 

Abigail T-6 comps

 - Talk to Me - .741x (922k)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Insidious 5 - .244x (1.22m)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 4/11/2024 at 8:51 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Unsung Hero	T-14	Jax	4	6	21	21	791	2.65%
		Phx	5	10	12	12	1,992	0.60%
		Ral	6	9	9	9	832	1.08%
	Total		15	25	42	42	3,615	1.16%
Unsung Hero (EA)	T-13	Jax	5	5	35	142	644	22.05%
		Phx	5	7	22	243	725	33.52%
		Ral	7	8	19	214	730	29.32%
	Total		17	20	76	599	2,099	28.54%

 

T-14 (Total) comps

 - Jesus Revolution (Total) - .56x (1.85m)

 - Sound of Freedom - .789x (4.1m)

 - Left Behind - 7.914x (4.83m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Unsung Hero	T-13	Jax	4	6	2	23	791	2.91%
		Phx	5	10	0	12	1,992	0.60%
		Ral	7	11	0	9	980	0.92%
	Total		16	27	2	44	3,763	1.17%
Unsung Hero (EA)	T-12	Jax	5	5	18	160	644	24.84%
		Phx	5	7	11	254	725	35.03%
		Ral	7	8	6	220	730	30.14%
	Total		17	20	35	634	2,099	30.20%

 

T-13 (Total) comps

 - Jesus Revolution (Total) - .582x (1.92m)

 - Sound of Freedom - .787x (4.09m)

 - Left Behind - 7.618x (4.65m)

[katnisscinnaplex]

Challengers tickets are on sale.  PLF early access on 4/22 as well

[TheFlatLannister]

17 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Civil War

 

Thursday 

 

T-0 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
491	4299	100473	4.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 3:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1215

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-0

(2.035x) of Monkey Man $2.85M

Comps average: $2.85M

 

Excellent final day. Calling it at $2.8M +/- $0.2M *just for Thursday* 

It will likely hit $3M+ with EA

 

EDIT: Had no idea this had EA

Was kind of busy last night so I couldn't update...but yeah this had GREAT walkups

 

Comp with Night Swim gives me $3.4M just for Thursday (Finished 2.266x of Night Swim)

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

Civil War (Previews)

346/8,331

 

Comps

 - Bullet Train - .751x (2.51m)

 - Plane - 3.68x (2.3m)

 - Creed III - .329x (1.79m)

 - Monkey Man - 3.46x (4.84m)

 

 

Civil War (Fri)

386/14,358

 

Comps

 - Bullet Train - 1.066x (8.79m)

 - Monkey Man - 3.328x (9.26m)

Santikos Tracking

 

Civil War (Fri)

745/14,116

 

Comps

 - Bullet Train - .822x (6.78m)

 - Monkey Man - 2.5x (6.96m)

 - Beast - 1.966x (6.65m)

[Tinalera]

3 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, T-28 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA shows, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 14

New Sales: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 16

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.9

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 1/3

Early Evening: 13/7

Late Evening: 0/6

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 1/7

IMAX: 8/6

VIP: 5/3

 

EA shows 

Sales: 12

Theatres: 4

Showtimes: 4

New Sales: 0

 

Zero sales day. 

 

What's interesting that's probably been in effect for a few weeks now, is that MTC4 has increased the premium for Dolby theatres. I'm pretty sure it was $3 not that long ago. It's now $5. There's been a baseline price increase not that long ago as well.

 

 

5 Dollar Premium??? Boy it shows how long IVE been actually out to a theatre lately! 

 

Wow just....wow.

[Ziddletwix]

Deadline/the-numbers reporting 2.9M for Civil War Thursday. Is that gap (from the 3.5M expected) surprising, or am I missing something?

[charlie Jatinder]

9 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Civil War MiniTC2

 

Previews - 4438/30783 (114 showings) $60K

 

Really solid result with walkups. Normally would mean $3M but think will underindex here. $3.25-3.5M seems about right.

Huh. With MiniTC2 doing well I thought MTC1 wont overindex but seems like it did.

[Eric the Minion]

6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Huh. With MiniTC2 doing well I thought MTC1 wont overindex but seems like it did.

A24 stans are the same people who clap when the Nicole Kidman intro plays, so it makes sense MTC1 would overindex with a lot of A-List subs buying tickets.

[ringedmortality]

9 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:

A24 stans are the same people who clap when the Nicole Kidman intro plays

 

I love that you hate on these people.

[Eric the Minion]

1 minute ago, ringedmortality said:

 

I love that you hate on these people.

lol I don’t hate them. Was just making a joke mate.

[abracadabra1998]

39 minutes ago, Ziddletwix said:

Deadline/the-numbers reporting 2.9M for Civil War Thursday. Is that gap (from the 3.5M expected) surprising, or am I missing something?

 

 

2.9 is expected I feel like if that number is sans EA. Hoping maybe @Shawn Robbins could shed some light here? If 2.9 includes EA then I would be very surprised

[TwoMisfits]

43 minutes ago, Ziddletwix said:

Deadline/the-numbers reporting 2.9M for Civil War Thursday. Is that gap (from the 3.5M expected) surprising, or am I missing something?

 

Could be the movie was VERY over indexed at MTC1, maybe due to limited geography appeal, maybe due to very limited GA, etc...

[Eric the Minion]

Quorum Updates

Furiosa T-43: 29.52%

The Garfield Movie T-43: 46.78%

Horizon: An American Saga Part 1 T-78: 19.73%

Maxxxine T-85: 15.41%

Fly Me to the Moon T-92: 13.41%

The Crow T-134: 31.06%

Moana 2 T-230: 46.53%

 

Civil War T-1: 36.74% Awareness

Final Awareness: 38% chance of 10M, 5% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 26% chance of 10M, 4% chance of 20M

 

Abigail T-8: 33.5% Awareness

Final Awareness: 38% chance of 10M, 5% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 87% chance of 10M, 62% chance of 20M

 

The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare T-8: 20.67% Awareness

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 15% chance of 10M