The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Speedorito]

13 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Where is Deadline getting this 40 million opening stuff from?

Manifestation

[Rorschach]

23 hours ago, Rorschach said:

IF - Monday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

1 XD showing: 2/238

5 2D showings: 38/438

Total: 40/676 (5.9% sold)

 

Friday:

5 XD showings: 19/1,175

11 2D showings: 35/1,060

Total: 54/2,235 (2.4% sold)

Thurs + Fri: 94/2,911 (2.9% sold)

 

No comps for this one, but should be useful when I track Garfield next week.

 

 

The Strangers: Chapter 1 - Monday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

5 2D showings: 8/593 (1.3% sold)

 

Comp:

Tarot: $477k

 

Friday:

10 2D showings: 23/952 (2.4% sold)

 

Comp: 

Tarot: $6.03 mil

 

Thurs + Fri: 31/1,545 (2% sold)

 

Comp: 

Tarot: $4.16 mil

 

Tarot had more tickets sold for Thursday compared to its Friday showings when I checked the Monday before it came out; hence, why the comps are so all over the place at the moment. The Thurs + Fri comp does appear to be a reasonable middle ground.

 

Also, decided not to cover Back to Black cause meh, not interested (though, judging by the fact that there are zero tickets sold on Thursday and only four on Friday, I don't think I'll be missing much).

IF - Tuesday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

2 XD showings: 4/476

8 2D showings: 45/639

Total: 49/1,115 (4.2% sold) 

 

Friday:

5 XD showings: 29/1,175

11 2D showings: 37/1,060

Total: 66/2,235 (3% sold)

Thurs + Fri: 115/3,350 (3.4% sold) [+21]

 

Even with no comps to go off, this growth seems pretty weaksauce. I guess we'll see how it goes tomorrow. 

 

 

The Strangers: Chapter 1 - Tuesday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

7 2D showings: 27/716 (3.8% sold)

 

Comp:

Tarot: $1.14 mil

 

Friday:

10 2D showings: 37/952 (3.9% sold)

 

Comp: 

Tarot: $5.22 mil

 

Thurs + Fri: 64/1,668 (3.8% sold) [+33]

 

Comp: 

Tarot: $5.44 mil

 

Damn! More than double from yesterday's count. Curious to see if it keeps up the momentum going forward. 

[Rorschach]

nvm

Edited May 15 by Rorschach
double post

[keysersoze123]

Inside Out 2 MTC1 previews -  7031/605240 135256.57 3082 shows

Definitely not great but this is not a fan driven movie. Let us see where things are in the final week. 

[JustLurking]

52 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Where is Deadline getting this 40 million opening stuff from? Nothing in the presales seems to indicate that.

Trades rely on different metrics than presales (i.e. awareness). Most of the time it's less reliable than presales, there are the rare exceptions where they see something tracking doesn't though.

[HummingLemon496]

As a Disney supporter I'm about these Inside Out 2 sales

[Krissykins]

Budgets from Deadline:

 

IF $110m

The Strangers: Chapter 1 $8.5m

[Joyous Legion]

4 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

 

I think IO2 will behave somewhere in between something like ATSV and Kung fu panda. Not too heavy on presales, but also not slow like KFP

 

Hopefully @M37 comes back soon and provides some analysis 

Never fear, for I am here

Spoiler

Yeah for a movie like this basically it’s not meaningful until t-10 or whatever

 

Spoiler

That said I’d sort of been expecting high double digits before PS and this certainly doesn’t change that prior. If it’s great it’ll just 4x or whatever, if it’s not it’ll… not

 

 

Edited May 15 by Legion Again

[Porthos]

Inside Out 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-30 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	153	23849	24051	202	0.84%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

202

 

Day 1  Comps.               SHITTY-ASS COMPS EDITION - DON'T TAKE TOO SERIOUSLY

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	110.99		182	182		0/73	11083/11265	1.62%		3951	5.11%		6.94m
Minion 2	297.06		68	68		0/163	24356/24424	0.28%		6591	3.06%		31.93m
TLM	44.49		454	454		0/153	21451/21905	2.07%		6561	3.08%		4.58m
GBFE	96.19		210	210		0/111	18011/18221	1.15%		2197	9.19%		4.52m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Inside Out 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       58/10075  [0.58% sold]
Matinee:     25/2674  [0.93% | 12.38% of all tickets sold]
3D:                7/3852  [0.18% | 3.47% of all tickets sold]
PLF:             81/9686  [0.84% | 40.10% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Since some people are already acting like Chicken Littles, I want to make something very clear.  I really do not have good comps for this movie.  Like, at all.  Especially for D1. 

 

With that in mind, I did some digging and did manage to get the Elemental D1 numbers out of the old Tracking thread:

 

IO2 = 5.45946x Elemental on D1 [13.10m]

 

Now will Inside Out 2 be as backloaded as Elemental?  Well it's tough to literally sell 5.5x times the amount of tickets on the final couple of days that Elemental did, so perhaps not.  But it does show how fracking backloaded purely kids animation is.

 

Anyway, this is 30 days out and it isn't a CBM film (like AtSV) or CBM-adjacent film (like Incredibles 2), so... maybe cool the jets a bit on the Sad Tennant faces a bit, eh?

 

NB:  The Sonic 2 comp is perhaps a little concerning.  On the other hand, nearly a weeks more of pre-sales so not exactly a great comp.

 

NB2:  No, I don't have D1 comps for KFP4, I don't think.  I'd have to trawl through this thread to check to see if I made a post about it  as I didn't save that info and I'm running late right now.

 

NB3: If folks want to suggest other comps, I'm game, but I might not get to it until tomorrow as I'm turning in early tonight.

Edited May 16 by Porthos

[HummingLemon496]

Just now, Legion Again said:

Never fear, for I am here

  Reveal hidden contents

Yeah for a movie like this basically it!s not meaningful until t-10 or whatever

 

  Reveal hidden contents

That said I’d sort of been expecting high double digits before PS and this certainly doesn’t change that prior. If it’s great it’ll just 4x or whatever, if it’s not it’ll… not

 

 

 

[HummingLemon496]

@Legion Again wouldn't high double digit previews (if by "high double digit" you mean high teens) mean a $160-180M OW? Seems a little high. . .

Edited May 15 by HummingLemon496

[Boxofficerules]

19 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Budgets from Deadline:

 

IF $110m

The Strangers: Chapter 1 $8.5m

Is that for Strangers Chapter 1 or all 3?

[Krissykins]

9 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Is that for Strangers Chapter 1 or all 3?

Article just says Chapter 1

[AniNate]

Legacy video game franchises like Sonic are akin to CBMs imo so I don't necessarily think that's a great IO2 comp. 

 

I do see nine sales for first Thursday at Canton now and I think that's a pretty solid start.

 

 

 

Edited May 15 by AniNate

[AniNate]

GARFIELD

EA Sunday: 25

Thurs: 8
Fri-Mon: 48

 

EA sales look decent now, but this does feel rather weak compared to the IF presales. Not 100% certain what's going on here but based on this I buy the trades' opening estimates over the forum vibes.

FURIOSA

Thurs: 48
Fri-Mon: 68

 

Encouraging to see the weekend fill out a bit. Been seeing a lot of promotion during the basketball playoffs so general awareness has to be getting there now, though I still imagine the Cannes reviews are gonna need to have an impact for a Fury Road type run.

 

 

Also Garfield is only getting the early matinee XD screening next week, not the lion's share that IF is this weekend.

 

 

Edited May 15 by AniNate

[YM!]

Will likely begin a new Marcus Theaters in southeast Wisconsin database next week. Focusing on the Waukesha, Ozakuee, and Brookfield area as that's where some of the biggest theaters in the state are (Menomonee Falls is like 5th biggest iirc) and close proximity to Milwaukee.

• North Shore Cinema

• Menomoner Falls Cinema

• Marcus Majestic Theatre

• Movie Tavern Brookfield

Edited May 15 by YM!

[vafrow]

On 5/14/2024 at 6:36 AM, vafrow said:

 

IF, T-3 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 19

New Sales: 7

Growth: 58%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.6

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 15/7

Late Evening: 4/5

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 7/6

Dolby: 4/4

VIP: 8/2

 

Comps

0.211x Wonka for $0.7M

0.067x KFP4 for $0.3M

 

Average: $0.5M

 

It's going up, but slowly.

 

The thing that hit me looking at the numbers is that the most popular format so far is the VIP theatres, which are 19+.

 

With such low sales, you can't read too much into anything, but it kind of speaks to how this isn't grabbing the family crowd. 

 

IF, T-2 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 19

New Sales: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.6

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 15/7

Late Evening: 4/5

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 7/6

Dolby: 4/4

VIP: 8/2

 

Comps

0.160x Wonka for $0.6M

0.057x KFP4 for $0.2M

 

Average: $0.4M

 

Eek

 

Zero sales day only a few days before previews, when you're dealing with a very low baseline. I'm not sure what's happening here.

[vafrow]

Insid Out 2, D1, T-30 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 2

New Sales: na

Growth: na

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 15

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.1

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime 

Late Afternoon: 0/2

Early Evening: 2/7

Late Evening: 0/6

 

Sales by Format 

Dolby: 0/1

Dolby 3D: 2/6

IMAX: 0/4

VIP: 0/4

 

With the site glitching yesterday, it might account for the slow start. But, what's interesting is the format breakdown. Nothing is being made available in anything close to a regular showtime. The one non 3D showing in Dolby is a matinee showing. Everything else is carrying a hefty premium. 

 

They'll likely release regular showtimes closer to release, but right now, it's priced to get eager fans to pay the premium formats.

[Eric the Minion]

8 hours ago, emoviefan said:

Where is Deadline getting this 40 million opening stuff from? Nothing in the presales seems to indicate that.

They probably think it’s actually a Foster’s Home for Imaginary Friends and are assuming the powah of nostalgia will carry it through (not wrong tbh)

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Back to Black	T-2	Jax	5	11	0	5	986	0.51%
		Phx	6	15	5	30	1,508	1.99%
		Ral	7	14	4	20	1,316	1.52%
	Total		18	40	9	55	3,810	1.44%
Back to Black (EA)	T-1	Jax	2	2	0	13	395	3.29%
		Phx	1	1	0	11	208	5.29%
		Ral	1	1	0	0	0	0.00%
	Total		4	4	0	24	603	3.98%
IF	T-2	Jax	5	30	22	127	4,112	3.09%
		Phx	7	34	16	96	4,747	2.02%
		Ral	8	36	21	72	4,933	1.46%
	Total		20	100	59	295	13,792	2.14%
The Strangers	T-2	Jax	5	12	7	41	1,161	3.53%
		Phx	6	17	12	62	1,768	3.51%
		Ral	7	17	8	46	1,536	2.99%
	Total		18	46	27	149	4,465	3.34%

 

IF T-2 adjusted comps (comps with EA)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .203x (1.3m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .322x (997k)

 - TMNT (Total) - .189x (931k)

 - Fall Guy (Total) - .73x (1.89m)

 - Lightyear (Total) - .281x (1.27m)

 

IF T-2 adjusted comps (no EA)

 - Sonic 2 (Thu) - .275x (1.4m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Thu) - .476x (1.38m)

 - TMNT (Thu) - .502x (1.7m)

 - Kung Fu Panda 4 - .498x (1.67m)

 - Fall Guy (Thu) - 1.214x (2.34m)

 - Lightyear (Thu) - .323x (1.3m)

 - Elemental - .806x (1.7m)

 - Peter Rabbit 2 - 2.837x (2.71m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.98m

 

Thinking somewhere in the 1.2m-1.5m range despite a couple of higher comps

 

Strangers T-2 adjusted comps

 - Insidious 5 - .366x (1.83m)

 - Talk to Me - 1.08x (1.34m)

 - Abigail - 1.62x (1.62m)

 - Evil Dead Rise - missed

 - Candyman - .73x (1.47m)

 - Black Phone (Thu) - .466x (1.24m)

 - Beast - 1.32x (1.25m)

 - Nun II - .47x (1.19m)

 - Smile (Thu) - missed

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.4m

 

We could have a preview battle on our hands!

 

Back to Black (Total) T-2 adjusted comps

 - Respect - 1.113x (767k)

 - I Wanna Dance - .3x (224k)

 - House of Gucci - .257x (355k)

 

Back to Black will not be participating in the battle.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Back to Black	T-1	Jax	5	14	1	6	1,416	0.42%
		Phx	7	16	17	47	1,554	3.02%
		Ral	7	14	4	24	1,316	1.82%
	Total		19	44	22	77	4,286	1.80%
Back to Black (EA)	T-0	Jax	2	2	2	15	395	3.80%
		Phx	1	1	3	14	208	6.73%
		Ral	1	1	0	0	0	0.00%
	Total		4	4	5	29	603	4.81%
IF	T-1	Jax	5	36	30	157	4,816	3.26%
		Phx	7	40	19	115	5,833	1.97%
		Ral	8	44	7	79	5,899	1.34%
	Total		20	120	56	351	16,548	2.12%
The Strangers	T-1	Jax	5	16	24	65	1,507	4.31%
		Phx	7	22	18	80	2,237	3.58%
		Ral	7	20	18	64	2,022	3.17%
	Total		19	58	60	209	5,766	3.62%

 

IF T-1 adjusted comps (no EA)

 - Sonic 2 (Thu) - .251x (1.28m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Thu) - .469x (1.36m)

 - TMNT (Thu) - .478x (1.62m)

 - Kung Fu Panda 4 - .483x (1.62m)

 - Lightyear (Thu) - .297x (1.19m)

 - Elemental - .731x (1.54m)

 - Peter Rabbit 2 - 3.28x (3.13m)

 - Super Pets - 1.186x (2.67m)

 - Bad Guys - 2.309x (2.72m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 2m

 

Raising my expectations to 1.5 - 1.75m range.  I don't really have a good feel for what age this is playing to.

 

Strangers T-1 adjusted comps

 - Insidious 5 - .381x (1.91m)

 - Talk to Me - .85x (1.06m)

 - Abigail - 1.77x (1.77m)

 - Candyman - .711x (1.43m)

 - Black Phone (Thu) - .487x (1.3m)

 - Beast - 1.26x (1.19m)

 - Nun II - .51x (1.31m)

 - Smile (Thu) - 1.2x (2.09m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.49m

 

Back to Black (Total) T-1 adjusted comps

 - Respect - 1.01x (696k)

 - I Wanna Dance - .341x (255k)

 - House of Gucci - .292x (402k)