The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheFlatLannister]

On 5/13/2024 at 7:44 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

IF

 

Thursday 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
433	1872	85117	2.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

161

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

26

 

COMPS

T-3

(0.842x) of Civil War $2.44M

(1.017x) of Fall Guy $2.34M

Comps AVG: $2.39M 

Really not much going on. Don't think walkups will be super strong either 

FLORIDA 

IF

 

Thursday 

 

T-0 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
503	3218	99142	3.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 5:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

568

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

70

 

COMPS

T-0

(0.749x) of Civil War $2.17M

(0.913x) of Fall Guy $2.10M
(1.523x) of Monkey Man $2.13M

Comps AVG: $2.13M 

Won't be providing walkups update for this.  
All comps pointing to $2M+ but I don't think it will be by much. Going with $2.1M +/- $0.2M

[katnisscinnaplex]

7 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Back to Black	T-0	Jax	5	14	5	11	1,416	0.78%
		Phx	7	17	9	56	1,723	3.25%
		Ral	7	14	1	25	1,262	1.98%
	Total		19	45	15	92	4,401	2.09%
IF	T-0	Jax	5	43	27	184	5,590	3.29%
		Phx	7	40	52	167	5,833	2.86%
		Ral	8	48	45	124	6,527	1.90%
	Total		20	131	124	475	17,950	2.65%
The Strangers	T-0	Jax	5	17	56	121	1,593	7.60%
		Phx	7	22	49	129	2,237	5.77%
		Ral	8	25	36	100	2,310	4.33%
	Total		20	64	141	350	6,140	5.70%

 

IF T-0 adjusted comps (no EA)

 - Sonic 2 (Thu) - .271x (1.38m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Thu) - .475x (1.38m)

 - TMNT (Thu) - .478x (1.42m)

 - Kung Fu Panda 4 - .439x (1.47m)

 - Lyle Lyle - 3.52x (2.07m)

 - Elemental - .709x (1.5m)

 - Peter Rabbit 2 - 1.84x (1.76m)

 - Super Pets - 1.035x (2.33m)

 - Bad Guys - 2.189x (2.58m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.78m

Growth model forecast - 1.46m

 

Sticking to the 1.5m - 1.75m range.  I'm looking for a +40% final day that would finish at 1.8m avg comps and 1.62m growth forecast.   Some other comps I'm keeping my eye on: Free Guy (1.55m), Dog (1.51m), and Jungle Cruise (1.59m).  I'm not ruling out 2m, but it would need to have a very good day.  

 

Strangers T-0 adjusted comps

 - Insidious 5 - .343x (1.71m)

 - Talk to Me - .91x (1.14m)

 - Abigail - 1.75x (1.75m)

 - Candyman - .677x (1.36m)

 - Black Phone (Thu) - .518x (1.38m)

 - Beast - 1.52x (1.43m)

 - Nun II - .6x (1.53m)

 - Smile (Thu) - 1.74x (3.03m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.64m

Growth model forecast - 1.43m

 

Keeping on track to match IF tonight.  Looking for a +70% today to finish right at 1.6m

 

 

Back to Black (Total) T-0 adjusted comps

 - Respect - .807x (556k)

 - I Wanna Dance - .304x (227k)

 - House of Gucci - .267x (367k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Back to Black	1-Hr	Jax	5	14	10	21	1,416	1.48%
		Phx	7	17	18	74	1,723	4.29%
		Ral	7	14	4	29	1,262	2.30%
	Total		19	45	32	124	4,401	2.82%
IF	1-Hr	Jax	5	43	68	252	5,590	4.51%
		Phx	7	40	38	205	5,833	3.51%
		Ral	8	50	80	204	6,733	3.03%
	Total		20	133	186	661	18,156	3.64%
The Strangers	1-Hr	Jax	5	17	87	208	1,593	13.06%
		Phx	7	22	39	168	2,237	7.51%
		Ral	8	25	63	163	2,310	7.06%
	Total		20	64	189	539	6,140	8.78%

 

IF T-1 hr adjusted comps (no EA)

 - Haunted Mansion (Thu) - .471x (1.37m)

 - TMNT (Thu) - .422x (1.43m)

 - Kung Fu Panda 4 - .439x (1.47m)

 - Elemental - .605x (1.28m)

 - Super Pets - .844x (1.9m)

 - Bad Guys - 1.782x (2.1m)

All PG - 1.35m

All movies - 1.4m

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.78m

Growth model forecast - 1.68m

 

Finished with a +39.1% right on target.  Settling on 1.7m previews

 

Strangers T-1 hr adjusted comps

 - Insidious 5 - .303x (1.52m)

 - Talk to Me - .838x (1.04m)

 - Abigail - 1.66x (1.66m)

 - Candyman - .58x (1.17m)

 - Black Phone (Thu) - .47x (1.25m)

 - Beast - 1.37x (1.3m)

 - Nun II - .58x (1.46m)

 - Smile (Thu) - 1.24x (2.16m)

All R horror - 1.35m

All horror - 1.39m

All movies - 1.14m

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.46m

Growth model forecast - 1.48m

 

Only managed a +54% today (lowest of my comps).  Lowering my prediction to 1.5m

 

Back to Black T-1 hr adjusted comps

 - Respect - .51x (352k)

 - I Wanna Dance - .246x (184k)

 - House of Gucci - .185x (255k)

[el sid]

IF, counted today for tomorrow had also 421 sold tickets.

Up nice 110% since Monday. Finally an acceleration. 

 

Comps (all counted on Thursday for Friday; I have no Elemental number for that day): Lyle had 121 sold tickets = 10.2M.

JC had 817 = 5.5M.

Dolittle had 395 = 5.7M.

Minions 2 had 2.893 = 5.4M.

And Sonic 2 had 1.851 = 4.7M.

 

Average: 6.3M. 

 

So that number went up by almost 1M since Monday but I don't like the comps very much (especially those for a very well known series) and would take the average number with a grain of salt. I think in reality it looks better for IF, also because the jump was finally decent. Of course this is just a guess but I wouldn't completely rule out 30M OW anymore (also because other reports here were quite positive, at least saw an improvement).

[Tinalera]

54 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Don't know if you have space inside your Inbox, but you can also set up a Conversation/PM with just yourself and no one else as a sort of "private thread" where you can test various things.

 

I set up one for myself over five years ago and I use it for storing drafts of long posts I want to work on, memes I might want to share in the future, but also test versions of things where I'm not sure the board will format them properly.

 

The only slight wild card is that the "window length" is potentially longer in a PM/Conversation due to less clutter on the left and right sides, so something to keep in mind.  But in general, I've found it to be a godsend when I'm playing around with formatting and trying different things.

I didnt know about the pm with self-thank you for letting me know

 

[AniNate]

Whatever happens with IF I do think it's getting a net benefit on this weekend from being the first family movie in two months, probably would be a complete non-event if it and Garfield's release dates were swapped, and I suspect Garfield's presales are also comparatively anemic here for that reason

 

 

Edited May 16 by AniNate

[Tinalera]

Real numbers this time

 

Furosia 

Thurs May 23 and Fri May 24 (T-8)

Vancouver and Calgary Canada

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouver	Thurs	4	17	124	3484	3608	0.0343
	Fri	4	21	109	4715	4824	0.0225
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary	Thurs	4	18	130	3412	3542	0.0367
	Fri	4	24	167	2235	2402	0.0695

[Boxofficerules]

I would assume a family film wouldn’t do too hot in Thursday night previews.

[AniNate]

Panda 4's previews were about 6.5% of its weekend gross, though they also started three hours earlier

[TheFlatLannister]

On 5/14/2024 at 7:06 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

FURIOSA

 

Thursday 

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
497	2252	94881	2.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

55

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-9

(1.547x) of Civil War $4.49M

(0.377x) of Dune 2 $3.51M
(1.062x) of Planet Apes $5.31M

Comps average: $4.44M

FLORIDA 

 

FURIOSA

 

Thursday 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
497	2570	94881	2.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

193

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-7

(1.516x) of Civil War $4.40M

(0.391x) of Dune 2 $3.64M
(1.117x) of Planet Apes $5.59M

Comps average: $4.54M

[abracadabra1998]

20 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

IF (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	136	120	321	18766	1.71

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		187	65	58.26
MTC1:		181	62	56.39
Alamo:		12	0	3.74
Other chains:		128	58	39.88

 

Comps:

0.4x Kung Fu Panda 4: $1.53 Million (17 theaters)

0.97x Migration: $1.46 Million (17 theaters)

0.47x Wonka: $1.63 Million (17 theaters)

0.74x Wish (TUE): $1.33 Million (17 theaters)

1.23x Trolls (THU): $1.6 Million (17 theaters)

0.47x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $1.47 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $1.5 Million

 

Really good update here, FINALLY! Been waiting for this. I will be able to give a T-0 update tomorrow and I will give a prediction then, but this is encouraging for sure. With this growth now maybe shooting for a finish near 1.75 or maybe even approach 2.

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

IF (T-1 Hour):

Day: T-1 Hour	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	136	223	544	18766	2.9

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		258	71	47.43
MTC1:		232	51	42.65
Alamo:		36	24	6.62
Other chains:		276	148	50.74

 

Comps:

0.61x Fall Guy: $1.42 Million

 

Ok I literally have no good family T-1 hour comps so this is more so for future purposes, but that is pretty good growth here. Looking at the numbers and pace from yesterday I will plant my flag at $1.7 Million, +/- 0.2. Not seeing quite enough for $2 Million, but maybe other markets will pick up the slack

[abracadabra1998]

20 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Back to Black (T-1):

Day: T-1, T-1 hour	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 22 theaters	46	15	36	3982	0.9
Saturday May 15 EA: 2 theaters	2	16	61	380	16.05
TOTALS:	48	31	97	4362	2.22

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		24	7	66.67
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		12	8	33.33

 

Comps (THU + EA):

0.29x Challengers (THU): $465k

0.12x Civil War (THU): $340k

0.82x Drive-Away Dolls: $285k

0.6x Ferrari: $260k (17 theaters)

0.55x Iron Claw: $370k (17 theaters)

 

Average: $345k

 

Probably looking at EA around $100k from these numbers, it's limited to Dolby only though so it's quite tiny. I do think I will be able to give an update tomorrow as well so I will hold off on a prediction until then

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Back to Black (T-1 Hour):

Day: T-1 Hour	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 22 theaters	46	44	80	3982	2.01

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		46	22	57.5
Alamo:		4	4	5
Other chains:		30	18	37.5

 

Comps:

0.28x Abigail: $275k

0.14x Monkey Man: $205k

0.14x Argyle: $235k (17 theaters)

0.37x Last Voyage of Demeter: $280k (17 theaters)

 

Again, terrible comps, mostly for future purposes. Let's go with a prediction of $250k, 100k for EA, and a total of $350k reported (+/- 100)

[Unfitclock]

Did anyone look at bad boys today by any chance 

[charlie Jatinder]

5 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

If I do it, wouldn't be 'till T-24, as that would be the first day of sales for TS4.

 

I also think any utility would be next to nil thanks to too many changes in my local market (with a C-tier theater becoming an A-tier theater after re-location/renovation being the straw that broke the camel's back).  I might do it for shits and giggles, but I can tell you right now that there was a *LOT*more upfront demand for TS4 than there was for IO2, which further strains any comparisons.

Just give the first two days numbers just for sake of it.

 

I can go back in thread but I am not sure how many new cinemas you are tracking now, so…

[Porthos]

14 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Just give the first two days numbers just for sake of it.

 

I can go back in thread but I am not sure how many new cinemas you are tracking now, so…

 

It's not quite that simple, as a couple of theaters also converted some of their auditoriums to partial DBOX seating, which will depress numbers from those two high-trafficked theaters as I wasn't tracking DBOX at the time.

 

(plus the converted theater also has partial DBOX seating)

 

Also, I'd have to go back and rollback my numbers from Tuesday to run a D1 comp as well as go through my sheets to make sure my current 2019 formulas are correct as I rarely update those formulas anymore due to them have practically no value.

 

I can do it, but it'd take a while as it really isn't that simple to do.

[DAJK]

Take it with a grain of salt because Ryan Reynolds is a national treasure in BC, but IF seems to be overperforming here. 3-3.5M equivalent Thursday at most locations I’m looking at. But it was always going to do better here than everywhere else.

[abracadabra1998]

Have a bunch of numbers from today, including Bad Boys (pretty good start for it honestly), but only able to post them tomorrow. Today was the first time in a long while that tracking felt very frustrating. Damn these Fandango issues and overall slowness  

[Relevation]

66 day presale window? That's pretty wack 

[keysersoze123]

IF MTC1 previews final - 32843/306763 537018.21 1927 shows

 

Pretty mediocre finish today. Probably around 1.75m ish previews but at this level it could be all over the place. FYI could not get Friday data. I will see if it works tomorrow. 

[crazymoviekid]

15 hours ago, crazymoviekid said:

IF:

 

Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 2 Tickets

Theater 2: 15 Tickets

 

KFP4: $1.62M

Migration: $1.96M

Wonka: $2.70M

Elemental: $.97M

Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile: $4.89M

 

Not a great day. Wonka is giving me hope, but back down to $1.75M-$2M.

 

Friday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 30 Tickets

Theater 2: 40 Tickets

 

KFP4: $7.45M

Migration: $6.61M

Wonka: $7.21M

Elemental: $5.92M

Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile: $15.28M

 

Pretty good day. Bumping up to $7M-$7.5M. 

 

Estimate OW: $27M-$29M

IF:

 

Final Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 14 Tickets

Theater 2: 21 Tickets

 

KFP4: $1.80M

Migration: $2.19M

Wonka: $2.45M

Elemental: $1.06M

Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile: $1.83M

 

Walk-ups are here. Comps between $1.75M-$2.5M. Leaning towards $2M-$2.5M

 

Friday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 62 Tickets

Theater 2: 84 Tickets

 

KFP4: $9.56M

Migration: $8.27M

Wonka: $8.85M

Elemental: $4.24M

Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile: $21.25M

 

Sales are way up. Looking strong between $8.5M-$9.5M

 

Weekend Estimate: $32M-$36M

Edited May 17 by crazymoviekid

[crazymoviekid]

15 hours ago, crazymoviekid said:

The Strangers: Chapter 1

 

Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 10 Tickets

Theater 2: 8 Tickets

 

Tarot: $1.43M

Imaginary: $1.00M

Night Swim: $2.01M

Pope's Exorcist: $.50M

 

Decent day. Feeling an inch past $1.25M

 

Friday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 12 Tickets

Theater 2: 7 Tickets

 

Tarot: $4.36M

Imaginary: $4.07M

Night Swim: $5.15M

Pope's Exorcist: $3.82M

 

Much better comps. Aiming now between $4M-$5M

 

Estimated OW: $14M-$17M

The Strangers: Chapter 1

 

Final Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 21 Tickets

Theater 2: 15 Tickets

 

Tarot: $1.23M

Imaginary: $1.45M

Night Swim: $2.18M

Pope's Exorcist: $.84M

 

Good last day. Sticking with around $1.25M

 

Friday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 41 Tickets

Theater 2: 14 Tickets

 

Tarot: $5.05M

Imaginary: $7.85M

Night Swim: $10.99M

Pope's Exorcist: $7.99M

 

Sales exploded today. A bit tooooo much. Feeling closer to $5M

 

Weekend Estimate: $16M-$17M - expect lower

Edited May 17 by crazymoviekid