The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Tbf I’m seeing the same thing for Orlando. Inside out was ahead of it as of T-27 

Orlando for Disney films probably isn’t really a good comp for nationwide trends

[HummingLemon496]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Orlando for Disney films probably isn’t really a good comp for nationwide trends

Unrelated but what are you thinking right now for IO2 OW? 

[AniNate]

Man I know this is a box office forum but it's this culture of demanding straight answers as quickly as possible that's the real issue. Best case scenario you get a fleeting dopamine hit if the numbers are where you want them to be, and if they're not we have to deal with pages and pages of anxiety and doomposting

 

I suppose it is fitting for the movie in question, to be fair

 

 

Edited May 18 by AniNate

[abracadabra1998]

Ended up not having time yesterday to post my Thursday numbers either, May is busy season for us middle school teachers lol. Will just punt on posting that update and post some updates tomorrow for all the movies coming ahead.

 

Sole exceptions are Bad Boys Day 1 and Garfield EA, I’ll post some numbers for those tonight

[Speedorito]

24 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Man I know this is a box office forum but it's this culture of demanding straight answers as quickly as possible that's the real issue. Best case scenario you get a fleeting dopamine hit if the numbers are where you want them to be, and if they're not we have to deal with pages and pages of anxiety and doomposting

 

I suppose it is fitting for the movie in question, to be fair

 

 

Frankly some of the people from Reddit are just kinda annoying, regardless of how well or poorly a film is tracking.

Edited May 18 by Speedorito

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

In many places, Barbie started wildly underbooked (I know it went 10, to 15, to 25 shows here week to week of presales at my locals) - maybe the same in Sacto?

 

I think it's more that Barbie started out looking like one movie (aiming for mid to high teens) and just grew and grew and grew and then theaters couldn't catch up in time.

 

I know that at the end Sacramento "ran out" of screens, but I wouldn't quite say it was underbooked in the first few days of sales as it was the sales themselves which kept on growing.

[SpiderByte]

This is not a drill: it's for real. Get ready for two months of Deadpool Discourse 

 

[emoviefan]

44 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Man I know this is a box office forum but it's this culture of demanding straight answers as quickly as possible that's the real issue. Best case scenario you get a fleeting dopamine hit if the numbers are where you want them to be, and if they're not we have to deal with pages and pages of anxiety and doomposting

 

I suppose it is fitting for the movie in question, to be fair

 

 

Yeah I don't understand the worry about IO 2 4 weeks out. KF4 two months ago just proved early eh presales don't mean much of anything and it sounds like IO2 is doing much better than that right now. So chill people.

[thajdikt]

10 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

This is not a drill: it's for real. Get ready for two months of Deadpool Discourse 

 

Time to head out for some months then 

[emoviefan]

4 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

This is not a drill: it's for real. Get ready for two months of Deadpool Discourse 

 

[Alexander]

I was more surprised when people were predicting 100+ OWs for IO2. Genuinely thought 70-80M would be very good in this market.

[YM!]

2 hours ago, emoviefan said:

Yeah I don't understand the worry about IO 2 4 weeks out. KF4 two months ago just proved early eh presales don't mean much of anything and it sounds like IO2 is doing much better than that right now. So chill people.

Tbh only real concern I have for IO2 is if MTC2 underperforms presales like it has for the past few Disney movies as there being no-upfront demand and would need to really rely on walkups and families which Disney hasn’t been doing well with. Then again, suspect IO2 should more or less skew the same as KFP4 OW wise (decent 18-34 bracket at 48%, 18-24 within 30s). Right now there’s no red flags just that IO2 is performing more like a kids movie than a family event which isn’t necessarily a death blow as kids movies matter more on pace increases than how much upfront demand in terms of OW potential. Definitely has the capacity for an 100m OW as seats are definitely numerous. Besides with IF and Garfield looking to modestly, there’s still more than enough room for IO2 to do well.

[Flip]

1 hour ago, Alexander said:

I was more surprised when people were predicting 100+ OWs for IO2. Genuinely thought 70-80M would be very good in this market.

Every Pixar 2nd installment has outopened the first. So for Inside Out 2 to not be able to do that would be disappointing.

[joselowe]

3 hours ago, SpiderByte said:

This is not a drill: it's for real. Get ready for two months of Deadpool Discourse 

 

Well looks like the big studios are going to see that the discourse about people being tired of superhero films is over cause people have made it clear that’s what they prefer.

[emoviefan]

15 minutes ago, Flip said:

Every Pixar 2nd installment has outopened the first. So for Inside Out 2 to not be able to do that would be disappointing.

Yeah this narrative some are going with that a 70-80 m opening would be fine is like really? Even in this market that would be not good at all. Something went really wrong if that happens.

[cannastop]

25 minutes ago, Flip said:

Every Pixar 2nd installment has outopened the first. So for Inside Out 2 to not be able to do that would be disappointing.

 

5 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Yeah this narrative some are going with that a 70-80 m opening would be fine is like really? Even in this market that would be not good at all. Something went really wrong if that happens.

Well we also live in the world where Elemental made less than $30m OW. Used to be that originals could make twice or three times that much.

 

As for Inside Out 2, I do think it will make more than the first on OW, but not like Finding Dory or Incredibles 2.

[TheFlatLannister]

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

FURIOSA

 

Thursday 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
497	2691	94881	2.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

121

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-6

(1.459x) of Civil War $4.23M

(0.387x) of Dune 2 $3.60M
(1.006x) of Planet Apes $5.03M

Comps average: $4.29M

 

First meh day since presales started 

FLORIDA 

 

FURIOSA

 

Thursday 

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
497	2790	94881	2.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

99

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-5

(0.381x) of Dune 2 $3.54M

(1.459x) of Civil War $4.23M
(1.010x) of Planet Apes $5.05M

(0.633x) of Godzill and Kong $6.02M

Comps average: $4.71M

 

Second straight day of weak growth. Not a great sign. Hopefully this is just a Florida thing. 

Edited May 18 by TheFlatLannister

[SpiderByte]

31 minutes ago, joselowe said:

Well looks like the big studios are going to see that the discourse about people being tired of superhero films is over cause people have made it clear that’s what they prefer.

Yep. Marvel cleared out their cinematic schedule for the year and there's no sudden surge in the types of movies people previously said were being choked out at the box office by big releases like Marvel.

[AniNate]

The thing is if Inside Out "just" opens to $80 mil, as long as it's good it should still have no issue turning a profit for Pixar. Disney will take even a modest hit at this point. If that's a downgrade from what expectations might've been for a pixar sequel before, it can be attributed to Disney and Pixar's reduced brand power which has already been pretty obvious from the box office performances of their other post COVID movies. 

[Speedorito]

13 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Yep. Marvel cleared out their cinematic schedule for the year and there's no sudden surge in the types of movies people previously said were being choked out at the box office by big releases like Marvel.

I think deep down everyone who said that knew it wasn’t true, it just sounds better than “I don’t like this.”

 

So far the only big movies have been Dune 2, GxK, Kung Fu Panda 4, and maybe Apes (all IP films, big surprise). With a silver medal for The Beekeeper and Civil War for being original films that crossed 100M. But those aren’t really the types of films that people claimed were being “choked out.”

Edited May 18 by Speedorito