The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[emoviefan]

44 minutes ago, el sid said:

Furiosa, counted today for today, had 2.482 sold tickets.

Up meager 21% since Monday. Unbelievable, somehow you jinxed my good numbers with all the negativity here ;). 

 

The average from comps (the short version because it's way after midnight here and I'm very tired) from 7 comparison films (Dune '21, Uncharted, The Fall Guy, Civil War, BT, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, GxK) is 6.95M. But please remember, my average on Monday was 8.3M. And between the coasts the numbers are very poor, also in my theaters.

 

The very big problem is: The average number is still quite good but the jump was really small and how much Furiosa lost in the comps is very worrisome: It lost 2M since Monday against The Fall Guy, 3M against BT and so on. And normally these trends (up/down) continue over the weekend (of course). 

So sadly now I'm not sure anymore if Furiosa reaches 5M in previews. The number is probably not much lower and maybe the reception is good, Idk. 

 

So my prediction would also be around 4-5M from previews.

I think most of us gave up on 5 million previews a few days ago. 

[emoviefan]

51 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Mission Impossible 8 next year to continue the trend.

You just can't resist can you?

[DAJK]

55 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Mission Impossible 8 next year to continue the trend.

See what annoys me about this post is that there was no actual intention about talking about the Memorial Day box office, or the current box office. It was about throwing a jab at a movie you’ve been on the hate train for for a while.

[emoviefan]

4 minutes ago, DAJK said:

See what annoys me about this post is that there was no actual intention about talking about the Memorial Day box office, or the current box office. It was about throwing a jab at a movie you’ve been on the hate train for for a while.

[Shawn Robbins]

Sorry for the delay @ everyone that's asked. 

 

https://boxofficetheory.com/weekend-forecast-furiosa-the-garfield-movie-and-sight-pacing-to-combine-for-80m-in-debuts-through-memorial-day/

[emoviefan]

6 minutes ago, Shawn Robbins said:

Sorry for the delay @ everyone that's asked. 

 

https://boxofficetheory.com/weekend-forecast-furiosa-the-garfield-movie-and-sight-pacing-to-combine-for-80m-in-debuts-through-memorial-day/

I will take those Furiosa numbers at this point. 

[Inceptionzq]

20 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Furiosa Emagine Entertainment

T-1 Thursday

137 Showings

697

+137

19592

0.182

Dune Part 2 T-1

2.19M

 

T-2 Friday

238 Showings

826

+231

33902

0.131

Dune Part 2 T-2

2.64M

 

T-3 Saturday

246 Showings

655

+159

35054

0.102

Dune Part 2 T-3

2.92M

 

T-4 Sunday

233 Showings

269

+75

33938

0.081

Dune Part 2 T-4

1.75M

 

Dune Part 2 obviously ain't a good comp here lol, but not like it's good at my other theaters anyway

Furiosa Emagine Entertainment

T-1 Friday

239 Showings

1188

+362

33970

0.409	GB Frozen T-1	4.66M
0.154	Dune Part 2 T-1	3.12M
0.369	Transformers T-1	6.22M
0.274	Fast X T-1	5.63M

 

T-2 Saturday

246 Showings

890

+235

35077

0.327	GB Frozen T-2	5.78M
0.113	Dune Part 2 T-2	3.25M
0.499	Transformers T-2	9.66M
0.398	Fast X T-2	8.95M

 

T-3 Sunday

234 Showings

414

+145

34051

0.370	GB Frozen T-3	4.15M
0.102	Dune Part 2 T-3	2.20M
0.464	Transformers T-3	7.19M
0.467	Fast X T-3	7.71M

 

Forgot to turn on my computer so Furiosa scripts would run while I was at work, and Drafthouse doesn't wanna work today. So no Thursday Furiosa numbers or Drafthouse unfortunately

[Inceptionzq]

20 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Deadpool & Wolverine Denver Thursday

2896(+91)/24018 in 9 theaters

 

 

0.902	Adjusted Thor L&T Day 3	26.16M
0.606	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Day 3	21.80M

Deadpool & Wolverine Denver Thursday

2985(+89)/24018 in 9 theaters

 

0.886

Adjusted Thor L&T Day 4

25.69M

 

Probably gonna be the last day of comps for while

[Inceptionzq]

20 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Deadpool & Wolverine Emagine Entertainment

T-64 Thursday

205 Showings

3053

+177

30441

 

T-65 Friday

331 Showings

1280

+137

49640

 

T-66 Saturday

327 Showings

701

+65

49755

 

T-67 Sunday

314 Showings

222

+28

48360

Deadpool & Wolverine Emagine Entertainment

T-63 Thursday

206 Showings

3330

+277

31541

 

T-64 Friday

327 Showings

1385

+105

49520

 

T-65 Saturday

327 Showings

777

+76

49773

 

T-66 Sunday

314 Showings

236

+14

48376

[Speedorito]

48 minutes ago, Shawn Robbins said:

Sorry for the delay @ everyone that's asked. 

 

https://boxofficetheory.com/weekend-forecast-furiosa-the-garfield-movie-and-sight-pacing-to-combine-for-80m-in-debuts-through-memorial-day/

Geez what a terrible weekend. In 2022 Top Gun Maverick opened to 160.5M, and last year The Little Mermaid opened to 118.6M.

 

If these numbers hold, the combined total of all films in theaters will be 140.7M.

[YM!]

Southeast Wisconsin Marcus Theaters Tracking - 5/23/24 - 4 Theaters used (North Shore, Menomonee Falls, Brookfield Square, Majestic Cinema

 

Inside Out 2 - 6/13/14 - T-20 - 12 screens (3 for North Shore, 4 for both Menomonee Falls and Majestic Cinema and 1 for Brookfield Square) with 35 showings 

17 tickets sold (2 2D/13 PLF/2 3D PLF)

- Little has changed as IO2 keeps on trucking along. I do theorize at least from the 250 ticket selling Funko Event, it’s plausible families and fans went for that date instead of Thursday night previews. Not much to make of things until we get to around 2 weeks for rudimentary guessing and opening week for figuring things out. At the very least, I like that it doubled its previous sales a week ago as it shows pace and outdid Garfield’s T-6.

 

Bad Boys: Ride or Die - 6/6/14 - T-13 - 10 screens (2 for North Shore and Brookfield, 3 for Majestic and Menominee)

28 tickets sold (11 2D/17 PLF)

- Same thing for Bad Boys, I expect this to not only skew more GA friendly and should bulk up ticket sales as we get closer to release. It’s almost at half of Furiosa’s T-6 which is a pretty great thing. Should easily outdo it by T-6 imho. 

 

Inside Out 2	6/13/24	T-20	12	2D, 3D, PLF, 3D PLF	2	4	0	11	17	2	13	2
Bad Boys: Ride or Die	6/6/24	T-14	10	2D, PLF	5	13	4	6	28	11	17

 

 

 

[AnthonyJPHer]

3 hours ago, Eric Furiosa said:

Quorum Updates

The Watchers T-15: 29.44% Awareness, 44.24% Interest

Harold and the Purple Crayon T-71: 15.76% Awareness, 33.81% Interest

The Fire Inside T-78: 12.89% Awareness, 37.56% Interest

Trap T-78: 25.04% Awareness, 47.14% Interest

White Bird T-133: 12.55% Awareness, 38.98% Interest

Mufasa: The Lion King T-211: 48.2% Awareness, 56.14% Interest

 

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga T-1: 44.67% Awareness, 44.06% Interest

Final Awareness: 46% chance of 20M, 25% chance of 30M, 16% chance of 40M, 9% chance of 70M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 48% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M, 9% chance of 30M, 4% chance of 70M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 30M

 

The Garfield Movie T-1: 61.28% Awareness, 51.29% Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 92% chance of 30M, 88% chance of 40M, 76% chance of 50M, 60% chance of 60M, 48% chance of 70M, 36% chance of 80M, 28% chance of 100M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 60% chance of 70M, 40% chance of 100M

Final Interest: 79% chance of 20M, 61% chance of 30M, 46% chance of 40M, 33% chance of 50M, 23% chance of 60M, 16% chance of 70M, 15% chance of 80M, 11% chance of 90M, 8% chance of 100M

Animation/Family Interest: 100% chance of 30M, 83% chance of 50M, 50% chance of 90M, 33% chance of 100M

 

Sight T-1: 12.89% Awareness, 29.62% Interest

Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 0% chance of 10M 

Low Interest: 0% chance of 20M

wow. That’s actually really high interest for Mufasa there this far out. Like… surprisingly high. 56.14% interest is abnormally high at this point. Heck, this is bigger than Garfield’s interest, which is 51 percent. What’s interesting to me is that its interest is higher than its awareness. 48% for awareness.

 

i know the Quorum isn’t the best source for opening weekend or overall interest but its a good sign. Anyone else have thoughts on this?

[emoviefan]

1 minute ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

wow. That’s actually really high interest for Mufasa there this far out. Like… surprisingly high. 56.14% interest is abnormally high at this point. Heck, this is bigger than Garfield’s interest, which is 51 percent. What’s interesting to me is that its interest is higher than its awareness. 48% for awareness.

 

i know the Quorum isn’t the best source for opening weekend or overall interest but its a good sign. Anyone else have thoughts on this?

I have thoughts but do not feel like being negative and snarky right now.

[charlie Jatinder]

21 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Garfield MiniTC2 T-1 Day

Thursday - 835/33939 (158 showings)
 

Comps

Kung Fu Panda 4 - $2.04M

IF - $2.14M
 

Friday - 971/91498 (412 showings)
 

Comps

Kung Fu Panda 4 - $4.2M

IF - $4.85M

Decent THU sales but FRI remains POOR.

Garfield MiniTC2 T-0

 

Thursday - 4282/33737 (157 showings) $47K

 

Good finish relative to how sales were.

 

Normally this would be around $2.35M previews, a bit of over-indexing should give $2-2.2M + $500K EA.

Edited May 24 by charlie Jatinder

[SaltyPistola]

11 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

Looks like Hemsworth curse continue with Furiosa no matter how good the movie is. 

Expect Thor 5 and Extraction 4 5 6 announcements any day now lol 

[abracadabra1998]

On 5/19/2024 at 11:30 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Bad Boys: Ride or Die (T-18):

Day: T-18	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	129	36	103	21270	0.48

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		86	24	83.5
MTC1:		84	25	81.55
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		19	11	18.45

 

Comps: 

0.68x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (THU): $3.39 Million

0.92x Fall Guy (THU): $2.16 Million

1.43x Civil War: $4.15 Million

1.03x Monkey Man: $1.44 Million

0.44x Aquaman and the Last Kingdom: $1.99 Million

 

All of these comps had been on sale for longer, so those will go up, with the exception of Civil War, which went on sale at T-18, so that'll go down. This feels like a walk-up movie so it's hard to find some good comps here, welcome to any ideas

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Bad Boys: Ride or Die (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	132	23	126	22386	0.56

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		102	16	80.95
MTC1:		93	9	73.81
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		33	14	26.19

 

Comps: 

0.75x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (THU): $3.73 Million

0.89x Fall Guy (THU): $2.1 Million

Civil War: Missed

0.44x Aquaman and the Last Kingdom: $1.99 Million (17 theaters)

 

In a week I will have Equalizer 3 and Expend4bles comps which feel more appropriate for this

[charlie Jatinder]

21 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Furiosa MiniTC2 T-1 Days

 

Previews - 1584/39583 (154 showings)

 

Comps

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire - $2.7M

Apes - $2.6M

Hunger Games: BOSS - $2.2M

Dune 2 - $2.2M

Civil War - $4.1M

Furiosa MiniTC2 T-0

 

Thursday - 4647/40333 (158 showings) $64K

 

Would normally be $3.25M type but since this is under indexing here, could be around $4M.

Edited May 24 by charlie Jatinder

[abracadabra1998]

On 5/19/2024 at 11:35 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Inside Out 2 (T-25):

Day: T-25	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 23 theaters	177	28	85	29077	0.28

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		46	11	56.79
MTC1:		59	18	72.84
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		26	10	32.1

 

Comps:

1.57x Kung Fu Panda 4: $5.98 Million

0.8x Wonka: $2.82 Million

1.54x Wish (TUE): $2.78 Million 

 

Put me with Katniss here, not impressed at all with the numbers so far here sadly  

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Inside Out 2 (T-21):

Day: T-21	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	182	43	124	29579	0.42

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		62	16	50
MTC1:		72	13	58.06
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		52	30	41.94

 

Comps:

1.81x Kung Fu Panda 4: $6.88 Million (17 theaters)

0.88x Wonka: $3.06 Million (17 theaters)

1.64x Wish (TUE): $2.95 Million (17 theaters)

0.97x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $3.01 Million (17 theaters)

 

Good update, hopefully this keeps on rising.

 

Going to be traveling over the long weekend so the next update for this, Bad Boys, and likely the Watchers is next Thursday. Numbers for next week's anime movie on Monday (T-3)

Edited May 24 by abracadabra1998

[Cmasterclay]

22 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Garfield MiniTC2 T-0

 

Thursday - 3955/33848 (158 showings) $44K

 

A few shows remains to be done. Final will be 4.1K type. Good finish relative to how sales were.

 

Normally this would be around $2.25M previews, a bit of over-indexing should give $2-2.2M + $500K EA.

Not totally terrible, tbh.

[emoviefan]

10 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Bad Boys: Ride or Die (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	132	23	126	22386	0.56

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		102	16	80.95
MTC1:		93	9	73.81
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		33	14	26.19

 

Comps: 

0.75x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (THU): $3.73 Million

0.89x Fall Guy (THU): $2.1 Million

Civil War: Missed

0.44x Aquaman and the Last Kingdom: $1.99 Million (17 theaters)

 

In a week I will have Equalizer 3 and Expend4bles comps which feel more appropriate for this

This will be a walkup monster. ForLife blew the tracking and presales out of the water if I remember.