The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheFlatLannister]

4 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Inside Out 2

 

T-0

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
830	17222	166425	10.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 3:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

5178

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-0

(4.277x) of Kung Fu panda 4 $16.25M

(2.216x) of Ghostbusters $10.42M

(1.262x) of Dune 2 $11.74M

Comps average: $12.80M

 

Somehow even crazier growth than Orlando. I'm betting on $11M+ maybe even $12M+ if walkups stay this strong. 

More like $11.5M-$12.5M 

 

Walkups are super strong. Easily eclipsing bad boys right now 

[Shawn Robbins]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It's being dumped. I remain convinced the only reason it was given a summer release is because that was the only time the cast could pencil in some promo time for it in their backed up schedules (thanks to the strikes).

I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, but I should point out it's getting a pretty strong (for what it is, and for Focus) marketing push in traditional channels with big rotation during sporting events.

 

They're targeting the older male audience pretty well, maybe even more effectively than Horizon so far. The question is how many will show up but I tend to wonder if the cast will help it pop a little bit outside the 40+ demo.

[keysersoze123]

On 6/9/2024 at 6:33 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1

Previews - 167361/1274158 3116627.13 7804 shows 
Friday - 73826/1478828 1421775.96 8235 shows

 

Another +3 days of data. Still solid pace overall. There is still 46 days to go for release !!!

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1

Previews - 173556/1274807 3225665.22 7809 shows +6195
Friday - 77287/1478773 1484343.71 8235 shows +3461

 

Friday was earlier in the day and Previews I just pulled it out and so +4 days of data. 

[Porthos]

13 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Inside Out 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:50pm - 4:30pm]

* NOTE:  All screenings that started before 3:50pm were sampled at the start of the showing.

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	257	25135	32945	7810	23.71%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day

1905

 

T-0 Comps

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2 [3:55-4:15]	197.67		704	3951		0/126	11964/15915	24.83%		3951	197.67%		12.35m
Ltyear [3:50-4:20]	190.91		802	4091		1/196	18650/22741	17.99%		4091	190.91%		9.93m
Minion 2 [3:50-4:20]	118.49		1571	6591		0/218	23799/30390	21.69%		6591	118.49%		12.74m
Element [4:25-4:40]	408.90		929*	1910		—/—	8657/10567	18.08%		1910	408.90%		9.81m
Barbie [3:50-4:30]	64.67		1494	12077		4/274	17904/29981	40.28%		12077	64.67%		14.62m
Wonka [3:55-4:20]	395.44		461	1975		0/211	24794/26769	7.38%		1975	395.44%		13.84m
GBFE [3:50-4:15]	355.48		439	2197		0/208	27083/29280	7.50%		2197	355.48%		16.71m
KFP4 [3:55-4:20]	332.91		1087*	2346		0/188	18495/20841	11.26%		2346	332.91%		12.65m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Inside Out 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

* NOTE:  Elemental  and KFP4 tickets sold are the for the full day, as I didn't take a mid-day sample for either of those movies.

 

Regal:        1990/11274  [17.65% sold]
Matinee:    1005/3344  [30.05% | 12.87% of all tickets sold]
3D:               582/4240  [13.73% | 7.45% of all tickets sold]
PLF:          2683/10730  [25.00% | 34.35% of all tickets sold]

 

======

 

             (ignore the omens from the movie source

still the best damn rocket launch ever put to the silver screen)

 

What can I say?  Inside Out 2 took off like the proverbial rocket.    Do note that it looks to be somewhat soft post 9pm, which shouldn't at all be a surprise.

 

Only thing left is to figure out the right comp.  And here, both Lightyear and Elemental give me extreme pause.  Now it's insanely dangerous to comp a 3m-ish movie or a 5m-ish one against a 10m+ one.  At the same time, the PLF percentage is pointing to a lower ATP than even something like Minions 2 (which had 37.2%).  Minions 2 did have a relatively similar matinee percentage, FWIW (Min 2: 12.46% | IO2 12.87%).

 

But I do think there'll be more kids tickets sold for a Pixar film than even something like KFP4.  Still, I do think there is a pretty wide range for disagreement here, if only because IO2 is focused on a teen-aged protagonist.   Gonna be on the safer side and say 11.25m +/- .75m.  Larger variance than normal, simply because the ATP question.

 

Don't like giving such a large variance for a relatively smaller preview number.  But those two groups of comps (not counting the loltastic GBFE) are painting a couple of different universes here.

 

Just have to see where it ends up.  Be a great number regardless. 👍

 

I should probably add that TS4 and Frozen 2 both came in hot in Sacramento, back in the day.  IIRC TS4 was something like 2m under what the local comps suggested. Don't recall how much F2 was off, but I seem to recall that being higher in this market as well.

 

This is another reason I'm being somewhat conservative here.  If it wasn't for my other Pixar comps, probably be calling for a flat 12m, maybe even 12.5m.  Which it could still be!  But I'm being cautious for once.  Wouldn't surprise me at all to see a 12m+ preview number.  Just means more non-kids tickets were sold here than might be typical for a Pixar film locally.

Edited June 14 by Porthos

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, Shawn Robbins said:

I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, but I should point out it's getting a pretty strong (for what it is, and for Focus) marketing push in traditional channels with big rotation during sporting events.

 

They're targeting the older male audience pretty well, maybe even more effectively than Horizon so far. The question is how many will show up but I tend to wonder if the cast will help it pop a little bit outside the 40+ demo.

I've actually seen a lot of ads for it too, though the buzzless feeling remains. Doesn't seem like it was ever able to regain the early traction it had when it began its marketing early last fall (which probably explains why Disney had no problem giving it up so easily).

[Porthos]

12 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

How's the Mexican population in Sacto? I will just use Minions 2 and Pixar title, the latter can overindex in Sacto if too many Mexicans. Minions 2 be closer as well, especially with similar number it had.

 

Very strong.  It is California, after all. 🙂  Central Valley, especially, due to second/third generation decedents from farm workers.

 

13 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Any possibility of TS4 comp?

 

You know it's next to worthless.  *I* know it's next to worthless.

 

Still, if you insist:  Almost identical (TS4: 6706 | IO2: 6813).

 

TS4 came in 2m over here, as I said in my last post.  On the other hand, ATP hikes since 2019. On the other other hand, Sacto market is taking a larger share of the DOM market since 2019, IMO.  On the other other other hand, and of the theaters I am using is doing >>>> better than before. And on the fourth hand, many more showtimes due to earlier start for IO2.

 

Still, do with that what you will.

[ringedmortality]

11 minutes ago, Shawn Robbins said:

I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, but I should point out it's getting a pretty strong (for what it is, and for Focus) marketing push in traditional channels with big rotation during sporting events.

 

They're targeting the older male audience pretty well, maybe even more effectively than Horizon so far. The question is how many will show up but I tend to wonder if the cast will help it pop a little bit outside the 40+ demo.

 

Can confirm, the TVs at my gym have ESPN and other sporting channels on constantly, have seen a ton of promo for Bikeriders.

[TalismanRing]

Anyone have the supposedly expanded theater count for Tuesday?  It's listed in the Derby but no theater count on The Numbers

[AnthonyJPHer]

15 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Very strong.  It is California, after all. 🙂  Central Valley, especially, due to second/third generation decedents from farm workers.

 

 

You know it's next to worthless.  *I* know it's next to worthless.

 

Still, if you insist:  Almost identical (TS4: 6706 | IO2: 6813).

 

TS4 came in 2m over here, as I said in my last post.  On the other hand, ATP hikes since 2019. On the other other hand, Sacto market is taking a larger share of the DOM market since 2019, IMO.  On the other other other hand, and of the theaters I am using is doing >>>> better than before. And on the fourth hand, many more showtimes due to earlier start for IO2.

 

Still, do with that what you will.

if it’s any help, in my area IO2 is doing really strong in the prime showings (7pm or mid 3pm) then I thought. IMAX is actually also really impressive so kids tickets and plf tickets could be pretty even. Just my area though. 

[keysersoze123]

55 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Let's see Moana 2 first, which is bigger than Frozen on Disney +.

I forgot that one. Its a made for TV movie converted to theatrical. If it can pull a Toy Story 2, its going to be big. I expect it to be backloaded as well. 

[AniNate]

I know they're not the same situation but IO2 has me a little more willing to give Moana 2 some latitude. They probably do have good faith intent there.

[charlie Jatinder]

10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I forgot that one. Its a made for TV movie converted to theatrical. If it can pull a Toy Story 2, its going to be big. I expect it to be backloaded as well. 

Yeah November previews are quite bad. Remember how poor was Frozen 2 previews and how insane was it’s Saturday.

[Relevation]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

At MTC1 IO2 is at 157480/773757 2662433.53 at 3PM PST. I am thinking 225K finish could happen with good walkups. That could get 12m previews in play(I am not predicting it for now). But so far the growth has been excellent. its behaving like Minions for sure. 

M37 said the MTC1 PSM for The Little Mermaid was at $58/tix, and the final PSM for Elemental maths out at about $53/tix. So assuming Inside Out 2 falls within that range, off a 225K finish in MTC1, that puts it squarely on for a $12-13M preview finish.  

 

(For the record Minions 2 had a PSM of $60.5/tix, so if IO2 managed that then say hello to $13.6M previews and probably an OW close to Barbie)

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Relevation said:

M37 said the MTC1 PSM for The Little Mermaid was at $58/tix, and the final PSM for Elemental maths out at about $53/tix. So assuming Inside Out 2 falls within that range, off a 225K finish in MTC1, that puts it squarely on for a $12-13M preview finish.  

 

(For the record Minions 2 had a PSM of $60.5/tix, so if IO2 managed that then say hello to $13.6M previews and probably an OW close to Barbie)

225K is probably too high. Let us rather look at 210K. Still very good(> 4x from T-1 growth) but not as crazy as say Minions. I was hoping for somewhere in the middle (4.5x growth). 

[charlie Jatinder]

18 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Inside Out 2 MiniTC2 T-1 Day

 

Previews - 8656/68021 (274 showings)

 

Comps

Kung Fu Panda 4 - $21.4M

 

Haunted Mansion - $15.9M

Wonka - $19.3M

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire - $15.3M

Minions 2 - $13.7M (inf. adj $15M+)

Lightyear - $8.8M (inf. adj $9.5M+)

 

WOW. KFP4 increased again. Most of the comps other than the last 2 will end up with $15M+ ish tomorrow.

At 7PM,  22306/76078 (322 showings) $270K.

 

Will probably end the day at 26K+. 

That would normally we good for $16M for a MCU film, in case of IO2 probably $12M.

[HummingLemon496]

Imma go bold and say 13*11.5 for juuuuuuust below $150M. Maybe $550M+ domestic total.

 

Also, this is the second year in a row where @Relevation correctly predicted the box office for a nostalgia bait movie on father's day weekend. One imploded and the other exploded (or is exploding).

Edited June 14 by HummingLemon496

[charlie Jatinder]

45 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

225K is probably too high. Let us rather look at 210K. Still very good(> 4x from T-1 growth) but not as crazy as say Minions. I was hoping for somewhere in the middle (4.5x growth). 

Minions penultimate day was taken a bit early, also IO2 penultimate day was reviewed.

 

That said, IO2, if 210K, will have a 113K final day increase. That's amongst the highest we have had for previews.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

I forgot that one. Its a made for TV movie converted to theatrical. If it can pull a Toy Story 2, its going to be big. I expect it to be backloaded as well. 

In hindsight Frozen 2 was as good as a TV movie.

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

The Crow T-71: 31.33% Awareness, 43.14% Interest

Transformers One T-99: 37.4% Awareness, 47.59% Interest

Terrifier 3 T-120: 22.51% Awareness, 36.97% Interest

Lord of the Rings: War of the Rohirrim T-183: 18.03% Awareness, 42.35% Interest

In the Grey T-218: 19.5% Awareness, 37.5% Interest

 

Inside Out 2 T-1: 65.02% Awareness, 57.35% Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 89% chance of 30M, 86% chance of 40M, 74% chance of 50M, 55% chance of 60M, 44% chance of 70M, 33% chance of 80M, 26% chance of 100M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 83% chance of 50M, 50% chance of 70M, 33% chance of 100M

Final Interest: 79% chance of 20M, 60% chance of 30M, 46% chance of 40M, 33% chance of 50M, 22% chance of 60M, 16% chance of 70M, 14% chance of 80M, 11% chance of 90M, 8% chance of 100M

Animation/Family Interest: 100% chance of 20M, 86% chance of 30M, 71% chance of 50M, 43% chance of 90M, 29% chance of 100M

 

The Bikeriders T-8: 25.21% Awareness, 38.7% Interest

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 18% chance of 10M

Low Interest: 9% chance of 20M

 

Twisters T-36: 49.5% Awareness, 53.39% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 56% chance of 40M, 36% chance of 50M, 32% chance of 60M, 20% chance of 80M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 67% chance of 50M, 50% chance of 60M, 17% chance of 80M

T-30 Interest: 76% chance of 30M, 65% chance of 40M, 51% chance of 50M, 38% chance of 60M, 27% chance of 70M, 24% chance of 80M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 30M, 89% chance of 40M, 67% chance of 50M, 55% chance of 60M, 22% chance of 70M, 11% chance of 80M

 

It Ends with Us T-57: 19.96% Awareness, 39.98% Interest

T-60 Awareness: 29% chance of 10M, 2% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 21% chance of 10M, 3% chance of 20M

T-60 Interest: 33% chance of 10M, 8% chance of 20M

Low Interest: 20% chance of 10M, 3% chance of 20M

 

Alien: Romulus T-64: 27.69% Awareness, 44.99% Interest

T-60 Awareness: 59% chance of 10M, 30% chance of 20M, 12% chance of 30M, 7% chance of 40M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 67% chance of 20M, 33% chance of 40M

T-60 Interest: 61% chance of 10M, 34% chance of 20M, 19% chance of 30M, 11% chance of 40M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 10M, 86% chance of 20M, 57% chance of 30M, 43% chance of 40M

[Flip]

22 hours ago, Flip said:

Inside Out 2 (T-1)

25 showtimes/676 tix sold (+158) so-so

 

1.33x Bad Boys 4 T-1 [7.43m] maybe Bad Boys just had exceptional growth

6.57x Watchers T-1 [6.56m] maybe Watchers over indexed?

T-0 should be around 860-910 tickets sold.

Friday (T-2): 40 showtimes/1244 tix sold (+301) 

 

1.84x Thursday

3.72x Bad Boys Thursday T-2 [20.76m]

Inside Out 2 (T-1) Fri

 

Friday (T-1): 40 showtimes/1919 tix sold (+675) 

 

2.84x Thursday (T-1)

3.79x Bad Boys 4 Thursday T-1 [21.22m]