The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Rorschach]

A Quiet Place: Day One (Monday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday: 60/1,672 (3.6% sold)

XD Fan Event showing: 15/238 (6.3% sold)

3 IMAX showings: 17/1,164 (1.5% sold)

8 2D showings: 28/737 (3.8% sold)

 

Comps:

Apes (w/o EA): $4.41 mil

Furiosa: $3.75 mil

Average: $4.08 mil

 

Friday: 59/3,474 (1.7% sold)

5 IMAX showings: 28/1,940 (1.4% sold)

16 2D showings: 31/1,534 (2% sold)

 

Comps:

Apes: $10.09 mil

Furiosa: $6.74 mil

Average: $8.42 mil

 

Thurs + Fri: 119/5,146 (2.3% sold)

 

Comps:

Apes: $15.39 mil

Furiosa: $10.62 mil

Average: $13.01 mil

 

 

I'm expecting this will perform closer to the Apes comps, though its current sales at this theater are about the same as Furiosa's numbers on its respective Monday. 

[keysersoze123]

On 6/23/2024 at 9:08 PM, keysersoze123 said:

A Quiet Place: Day One MTC1

Previews(T-4) - 38030/526891 756550.96 2574 shows +3255

Friday - 28956/967732 555318.82 4750 shows +3831

 

it probably needs to finish strong like 5K, 9K, 11K, 50K to finish above 6m previews and great walkups over the weekend to have a big OW. I wont rule it out but let us wait and see. 

A Quiet Place: Day One MTC1

Previews(T-3) - 44221/550557 872059.67 2741 shows +6191

Friday - 35009/1022727 664961.67 5200 shows +6053 

 

It exceeded my expectations for today and so its on but Friday pace being lower is weird this late. Its IM may not be as good as what I expected earlier. But its going to go for 6m previews I think.  

[Rorschach]

Horizon: An American Saga - Chapter 1 (Monday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

4 2D showings: 19/438 (4.3% sold)

 

Comps:

The Bikeriders: $1.97 mil

 

Friday:

7 2D showings: 65/594 (10.9% sold)

 

Comps: 

The Bikeriders: $10.81 mil

 

Thurs + Fri: 84/1,032 (8.1% sold)

 

Comps: 

The Bikeriders: $11.51 mil

 

 

Haha Midwest go brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/23/2024 at 3:11 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Despicable Me 4 MiniTC2 T-11 Days

 

Wednesday - 1011/106126 (408 showings)

 

Comps

Minions 2 ~ $37M

 

Inside Out 2 - $23M

Kung Fu Panda 4 - $27.4M

Despicable Me 4 MiniTC2 T-9 Days

 

Wednesday - 1417/104630 (404 showings)

 

Comps

Minions 2 ~ $41.5M

 

Inside Out 2 - $25.5M

Kung Fu Panda 4 - $29.5M

[Porthos]

On 6/24/2024 at 2:38 AM, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-32 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	28143	33625	5482	16.30%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

38

 

T-32 Comp                 TOO EARLY TO TAKE SERIOUSLY EDITION

%

Sold T-32

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

BP2

118.71

79

4618

0/294

32404/37022

12.47%

16800

32.63%

33.24m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1159/12925  [8.97% sold]
Matinee:    296/4469  [6.62% | 5.40% of all tickets sold]
3D:             588/6801  [8.65% | 10.73% of all tickets sold]
PLF:       2864/11535  [24.83% | 52.24% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV        33 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    35 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-31 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	28106	33625	5519	16.41%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

37

 

T-31 Comp

%

Sold T-31

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

BP2

113.68

237

4855

1/294

32167/37022

13.11%

16800

32.85%

31.83m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1173/12925  [9.08% sold]
Matinee:    301/4469  [6.74% | 5.45% of all tickets sold]
3D:            590/6801  [8.68% | 10.69% of all tickets sold]
PLF:       2870/11535  [24.88% | 52.00% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV        38 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    38 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
(yes the above is accurate, as a DBOX seat was refunded which weren't tracked for the above movies)

 

 

Edited June 25 by Porthos

[Porthos]

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-31 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	28106	33625	5519	16.41%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

37

 

T-31 Comp

%

Sold T-31

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

BP2

113.68

237

4855

1/294

32167/37022

13.11%

16800

32.85%

31.83m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1173/12925  [9.08% sold]
Matinee:    301/4469  [6.74% | 5.45% of all tickets sold]
3D:            590/6801  [8.68% | 10.69% of all tickets sold]
PLF:       2870/11535  [24.88% | 52.00% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV        38 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    38 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
(yes the above is accurate, as a DBOX seat was refunded which weren't tracked for the above movies)

 

 

 

(this got way too wordy [and I didn't even get to the Thor 4 thoughts — except by implication] so I'm spinning this off to a separate post)

 

The above BP2 number in the quoted post is in fact correct, as T-31 was the date that a 170+ seat group sale/sellout was added to the total.  But it wasn't just that sellout as tomorrow (SPOILER ALERT) will be very strong as well at 161 seats sold for BP2. 

 

After T-30, it'll settle into a more or less reliable pattern for the next couple of weeks, with an average sales of approx 121 tickets per day.  DP3, by comparison, was reliably selling around 50 to 55 tickets per day for the last month, but has been sub-50 four out of the last six days.  So something to keep an eye on in the case of DP3, though it might just be the very bottom of the U-curve/randomness at play

 

Either way, even at 60 a pop versus 120 a pop, it's not gonna take long at all for BP2 to "overtake" DP3 once tomorrows 161 is factored in.

 

On the other hand, even if we set aside ATP hikes since late 2022 (and we shouldn't) Deadpool and Wolverine is still an R-rated movie.  Even with some "cool parents" out there, the ATP will be decently higher than most recent MCU films while suppressing the overall sales numbers.  That being said, I don't know if the ATP will be quite as high as some popular R-rated films lately as this should still draw a higher percentage of kids tickets being sold.  But then there's the 3D factor...

 

======

 

The other major thing I'm curious about is whether or not this will be slightly more GA-skewing than a typical CBM.  It's more than a little silly to wonder about this, if only because of the insanely long pre-sale window burning up demand, but I do tend to wonder if the high action/adult-ish content of the film will play a role here in ticket buying patterns.  Do think the later social media/review rollouts matter more, but I still wonder if the folks who typically buy tickets to R-rated action shoot 'em ups are still staying on the sidelines and waiting 'till closer to release.

 

It's that later factor which has caused me to start thinking about John Wick 4 as very vaguely decent-ish comp for the last couple days of pre-sales.  It didn't have 3D sales, and it did under sub-10m in previews, so that's two major strikes against it right there.  Then again, I can count the number of R-rated films that debuted in the last 4 years that did over 10.5m in previews on exactly zero hands, so don't exactly have any decent R-rated comps in the first place.

 

In the end, DP3 is gonna obliterate the R-rated preview record held by... DP2 ($18.6m).  But because it's gonna obliterate said record and because the highest R-rated film since theaters reopened is Oppenheimer at 10.5m, finding a good ATP comp for this film is probably going to be... challenging.  Never mind figuring out a good pre-sale pattern comp.

 

(also have some thoughts about wondering that since this is also a continuation of a Fox Marvel film series if that is also throwing a slight wildcard into pre-sale patterns — but good gawd this post is already long enough as it is, so I'll save that for another time.  Maybe.)

 

 

Edited June 25 by Porthos

[vafrow]

On 6/24/2024 at 6:50 AM, vafrow said:

 

Quiet Place Day One, T-4, Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 77

New Sales: 9

Growth: 13%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 5.5

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 3/2

Early Evening: 53/6

Late Evening: 21/6

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 26/7

IMAX: 31/5

4DX: 20/2

 

Comps

0.688x KOTPOTA for $3.4M

 0.621x Furiosa for $2.2M

0.379x KFP4 for $1.4M

 

Average: $2.4M

 

Treading water when I was hoping for some growth. 

 

Quiet Place Day One, T-3, Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 91

New Sales: 14

Growth: 18%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 6.5

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 2/2

Early Evening: 62/6

Late Evening: 27/6

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 33/7

IMAX: 36/5

4DX: 22/2

 

Comps

0.679x KOTPOTA for $3.4M

 0.591x Furiosa for $2.1M

0.319x KFP4 for $1.2M

 

Average: $2.3M

 

Not horrible, but still not breaking out.

Edited June 26 by vafrow

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Despicable Me 4, T-10 Wednesday Opening, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 147

New Sales: 21

Growth: 17%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 38

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 3.3

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime Slot

Noon: 26/8

Early Afternoon: 29/8

Late Afternoon: 20/8

Early Evening: 69/7

Late Evening: 3/7

 

Sales by Format

Regular: 11/7

Regular 3D: 6/5

Dolby: 102/14

Dolby 3D: 4/2

IMAX: 24/10

 

Comps

2.262x Inside Out 2 for $29.4M

2.262x Kung Fu Panda 4 for $10.9M

2.625x GB:FE for $9.7M

4.083x Wonka for $14.3M

147.000x Garfield for $279.3M*

36.750x IF for $64.3M

Average: $25.7M

 

*Garfield lost what few sales they had around this time. Ignoring this for average for obvious reasons.

 

Another reasonable day.

 

Despicable Me 4, T-9 Wednesday Opening, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 155

New Sales: 8

Growth: 5%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 38

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 4.1

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime Slot

Noon: 26/8

Early Afternoon: 29/8

Late Afternoon: 22/8

Early Evening: 74/7

Late Evening: 4/7

 

Sales by Format

Regular: 12/7

Regular 3D: 6/5

Dolby: 106/14

Dolby 3D: 7/2

IMAX: 24/10

 

Comps

2.279x Inside Out 2 for $29.6M

1.802x Kung Fu Panda 4 for $8.7M

2.672x GB:FE for $9.9M

3.523x Wonka for $12.3M

25.833x IF for $45.2M

Average: $21.1M

 

It's the closest thing it's had to a bad day. I'm not sure the cause, but not too worried about falling off pace for one day when it's been si consistent.

[M37]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

The other major thing I'm curious about is whether or not this will be slightly more GA-skewing than a typical CBM.  It's more than a little silly to wonder about this, if only because of the insanely long pre-sale window burning up demand, but I do tend to wonder if the high action/adult-ish content of the film will play a role here in ticket buying patterns.  Do think the later social media/review rollouts matter more, but I still wonder if the folks who typically buy tickets to R-rated action shoot 'em ups are still staying on the sidelines and waiting 'till closer to release.

I agree with the underlying premise here, in that there should be some caution in presuming this particular film will behave in sale patterns like a typical CMB, specifically the MCU.  And while I don't disagree the there will probably be some level of GA-action draw that a typical MCU saga film won't have, the catch-22 is that the R rating is going to limit family and teen attendance, generally two of the most late buying audience, as well as skewing more male, which impacts the when of sales patterns

 

Couple that audience nuance with the extremely long pre-sale period, and I'm hesitant to swallow those current MCU comps pointing to $30M+. My expectation is that the U-curve is going to bottom out here far more than usual, those comps value will fall, but we'll see a stronger last week/GA surge to compensate, while also probably more concentrated in major metros, PLFs, and with higher ATP. Frankly, much more akin to a DC film like Batman than BPWF or Thor L&T. 

Spoiler

I don't have numbers for it, but I distinctly recall being a bit underwhelmed by Deadpool 2's Thursday and OW, and the IM of 6.75x was barely ahead of Infinity War's 6.61x three weeks prior, at half the volume.

 

My current ballpark expectation is for a high $20Ms Thursday preview (but ask me again when we get to T-21 or T-14). Still clearly #2 for summer and the year (to that point), but not in any way making a run at Lion King's July OW record 

[TomThomas]

Horizon will blow up to at least 20 mln OW after incredible walkups and will end its domestic run with 100+ mln. Book it.

[VanillaSkies]

1 hour ago, TomThomas said:

Horizon will blow up to at least 20 mln OW after incredible walkups and will end its domestic run with 100+ mln. Book it.

I’d actually be quite happy to see this… but the cards don’t seem to show much chance.

[filmlover]

I wonder just how old the audience breakdown for Horizon will be. Thinking at least 80% over 50. I doubt there's anyone under the age 30 who is even on the fence about wanting to see it.

[Mojoguy]

1 hour ago, TomThomas said:

Horizon will blow up to at least 20 mln OW after incredible walkups and will end its domestic run with 100+ mln. Book it.

[jeffthehat]

22 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

A Quiet Place: Day One T-3

Sales	Seats	Shows
571*	17957	109

TC=26, pulled 11 AM EST

Comps

0.76x Furiosa T-3 = $2.65m*

0.35x GxK NE T-3 = $3.54m*

1.24x Civil War T-3 = $3.59m*

0.80x Bad Boys 4 T-3 = $4.45m*

* missing biggest theater

 

AVG = $3.56m

Adjusted AVG = $4.13m

 

Sales at the busiest theater aren't loading at all today. Here's the percentage of sales it represented for a few of the comps 

 

GxK NE T-3 = 11%

Bad Boys 4 T-2 = 12%

Furiosa T-2 = 25%

 

AVG = 16%

 

The adjusted number is $3.56m * 1.16. Take it with a grain of salt 

 

 

 

 

Indiana

A Quiet Place: Day One T-2

Sales	Seats	Shows
771	22544	131

TC=27, pulled 11 AM EST

Comps

0.98x Furiosa T-2 = $3.4m

0.48x GxK NE T-2 = $4.8m

1.67x Civil War T-2 = $4.9m

0.88x Bad Boys 4 T-2 = $4.9m

 

AVG = $4.50m

 

True average yesterday was $4.29m, grabbed sales from the missing theater in the evening

Edited June 25 by jeffthehat

[SpiderByte]

How's Deadpool looking now that we're a single month out?

[keysersoze123]

25 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

How's Deadpool looking now that we're a single month out?

It had fantastic start to presales and now in steady state mode which is way lower than 2022 blockbusters due to super long sales cycle. I think Wakanda comps are online and I think real time to comp these movies would be around T-7 time period when pace of all these movies should be similar and we can extrapolate where it will end. I still think Thor is the best comp as it was a july release and IM will be close to Thor than say Wakanda which released during Veteran's day weekend. 

 

At this point the floor is 30/150 (unless it pulls a Marvels in its final week which is unlikely). Ceiling depends on many factors including rumors around who is there and how that can help pull in audience beyond atypical MCU fare. 

 

@Porthos thinks this is more "GA Friendly" and I am surprised as this is R rated as opposed to normal PG 13 fare. Only time will tell what will happen. My prediction is 32/160 expecting a moving with middling reviews like normal Shawn Levy joint. But let us see what magic Feige can throw in combo with Levy. 

 

 

BTW after ages I was able to get some data from MTC2

 

Deadpool MTC2 previews - 81360/516220 1210892.26 3809 shows

 

Pace is under 1K per day at this point. It will coast until there is some catalyst. 

 

Another aspect is MTC1 skew is higher than usual due to fan shows just in MTC1. That has sold almost 85% of tickets and sold 26371/31032 445973.09 165 shows. That is way stronger than overall preview sales skewing the numbers. Minus that Deadpool has sold 160K and going along slightly above 1K per day at MTC1.  

[vafrow]

With respect to D&W, does anyone feel they're staying pretty quiet with marketing. There was lots of attention at the start of the sales cycle, but not much since.

 

Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals was on last night with a chance for a Canadian team to break the 31 year winless streak. It's likely the highest television audience we'll see this year. Deadpool falls pretty firmly in the demographic that's the core audience watching.

 

I saw some digital board adverts, but no commercial spots. I was at a bar, so I wasn't focused on it but reflected on it this morning.

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, M37 said:

I agree with the underlying premise here, in that there should be some caution in presuming this particular film will behave in sale patterns like a typical CMB, specifically the MCU.  And while I don't disagree the there will probably be some level of GA-action draw that a typical MCU saga film won't have, the catch-22 is that the R rating is going to limit family and teen attendance, generally two of the most late buying audience, as well as skewing more male, which impacts the when of sales pattern.

 

Ironically enough, I had a short paragraph looking at how teenagers would be impacted by the R-rating but I cut it because, and I quote:

 

8 hours ago, Porthos said:

but good gawd this post is already long enough as it is, so I'll save that for another time.  Maybe.

 

Paraphrasing from memory, I think it's probably here where the all-ages appeal that MCU films in particular have can get hit (already mentioned kids tickets in the first post).  While it is true that teenagers will still be able to see this film if they're accompanied by a parental guardian (or "guardian" as the case may be) and it is absolutely true that some theaters will be... laxer about enforcing the "no one under 17 without a parental guardian" than others, it is absolutely a factor in suppressing sales. If only because it adds a potential hurdle to clear.

 

Honestly though, as I said, I think the bigger factor is gonna be the late push on social/review.  But I'm still curious about how this is gonna play with the action crowd, hence my flirtation with looking at John Wick 4.

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, vafrow said:

With respect to D&W, does anyone feel they're staying pretty quiet with marketing. There was lots of attention at the start of the sales cycle, but not much since.

 

Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals was on last night with a chance for a Canadian team to break the 31 year winless streak. It's likely the highest television audience we'll see this year. Deadpool falls pretty firmly in the demographic that's the core audience watching.

 

I saw some digital board adverts, but no commercial spots. I was at a bar, so I wasn't focused on it but reflected on it this morning.

I expect Deadpool to over index in Canada big time due to Ryan Reynolds affect. Did you track how IF did relative to overall domestic?

 

Similar story in Australia where Jackman will help it over index. 

[Porthos]

27 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

@Porthos thinks this is more "GA Friendly" and I am surprised as this is R rated as opposed to normal PG 13 fare. Only time will tell what will happen. My prediction is 32/160 expecting a moving with middling reviews like normal Shawn Levy joint. But let us see what magic Feige can throw in combo with Levy.

 

I think I am looking more at the pattern of when sales potentially are than the volume of sales.

 

The unnecessarily long pre-sale window throws most of this out of the window, naturally.  In Sacramento's case, having over 1500 tickets sliced off over a month of extra sales is gonna play merry hell with most logical comps.

 

And it's also a theory I'm not wedded to all that strongly.  Hence the phrasing "wondering about"/"curious to see".