The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Ryan C]

Joker: Folie a Deux

 

T-20 and T-23

 

Monday, September 30 - Fan Event Showings: 1,444 Seats Sold (From 6 Theaters)

Thursday, October 3 - Traditional Thursday Previews: 2,423 Seats Sold (From 16 Theaters)

= 3,867 Seats Sold

 

Comps (Including EA Screenings)

(2.587x) Beetlejuice Beetlejuice = $33.6M 

(2.239x without EA Screenings included) = $29.1M

 

Taken as of 1:25AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Don't take the Beetlejuice comp seriously. This is my first time using a comp for tracking a movie and Beetlejuice was the only one I could use for this. It is far selling that one at the same point (even with EA screenings), but since this is a comic-book movie, that makes sense. Again, don't take this too seriously. 

 

Anyways, this is a pretty underwhelming start all things considered. The EA screenings are doing great, but the actual Thursday previews are not selling as strong as I expected they would. Though I don't have exact comps for these, I know from memory that Deadpool and Wolverine, The Batman, and even The Flash were selling a lot stronger than this one on their first day of sales. 

 

I at least expected the PLFs showings to be mostly sold out and though those are selling more tickets than the 2D screenings, it's still no indication that this will break out in any way. 

 

Be aware that this is just the first day of tickets being on sale and there is a chance that this could end up being more walk-up heavy than other comic-book movies, but with such divisive reception out of Venice (which also doesnt bode well for word-of-mouth), it's gonna be really hard for good buzz/momentum to be able to keep this one accelerating at a good pace until we get close to the release date. That's unless Warner Bros. really amps up the marketing campaign for it. 

 

For now though, this isn't an especially strong start. Hopefully this improve in the coming weeks. 

Edited September 10 by Ryan C

[emoviefan]

I mean after Indy and Elemental at Cannes last year and Horizon this year and now Joker in Venice maybe studios should make dam sure these movies are going to be really well received before they take the chance and put these movies in a hole they have to dig out of. Although Joker may just be a no thank you we were good after one of these movies. It happens.

[AniNate]

I can't believe presales would be this weak if the Venice buzz were more along the lines of "Better than the first! Gaga gives an all out Oscar caliber performance!" CBM fans are the most online of any and they know full well what the reviews are saying even if they don't like it. It has definitely muted the interest.

[JustLurking]

32 minutes ago, AniNate said:

I can't believe presales would be this weak if the Venice buzz were more along the lines of "Better than the first! Gaga gives an all out Oscar caliber performance!" CBM fans are the most online of any and they know full well what the reviews are saying even if they don't like it. It has definitely muted the interest.

I am unsure why festival critics would ever give the film those kind of reviews? The first film may I remind is literally to this day freaking rotten at 48% with top critics, with a 59 on mc

 

I don't know how the film is but I don't know why everyone (including WB, apparently?) expected critics, and especially festival critics, to rave about this film when they never even liked the first one

 

The film early reception is actually, as far as I can see, pretty similar to what the first film got

Edited September 10 by JustLurking

[TinaDuraes]

11 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

I am unsure why festival critics would ever give the film those kind of reviews? The first film may I remind is literally to this day freaking rotten at 48% with top critics, with a 59 on mc

 

I don't know how the film is but I don't know why everyone (including WB, apparently?) expected critics, and especially festival critics, to rave about this film when they never even liked the first one

 

The film early reception is actually, as far as I can see, pretty similar to what the first film got

The first one debuted with 88% on Rotten Tomatoes at the festival. It only went down after more american critics saw it. This is literally the best reception this movie is gonna get.

Edited September 10 by TinaDuraes

[JustLurking]

5 minutes ago, TinaDuraes said:

The first one debuted with 88% on Rotten Tomatoes at the festival. It only went down after more american critics saw it. This is literally the best reception this movie is gonna get.

I stand corrected then 😛 that's rough

[THUNDER BIRD]

There are 2 next parts of big Blockbuster movies released in 2019 this year. 

 

People thought that the one of them would be repeating Alice, Marvels.

 

They just didn't know it won't be the one they predicted.

[vafrow]

10 hours ago, vafrow said:

Joker: Folie a Deux, D1, hour 8, T-25, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Monday EA 

 

Total Sales: 35

New Sales: na

Growth: na

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 19

Tickets per Showtime: 1.8

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 3/4

Early Evening: 29/9

Late Evening: 3/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 12/7

VIP: 14/6

IMAX: 9/6

 

Comps (against ~24 hour comps, except otherwise noted)

17.500x Beetlejuice² for $171.5M

0.515x GxK for $5.1M

0.033x D&W for $1.3M

0.294x Dune 2 (day 2 pull) for $2.9M

0.745x HG: BoSS for $4.3M

Average (excluding B²): $3.4M

 

Monday EA Sales

Total: 25

New sales: na

Growth: na

Showings: 1 IMAX showing in radius 

 

EA Comp

0.084x Dune 2 (Day2) for $0.2M

 

First off, this is being pulled earlier than comps. Things will improve by tomorrow morning against comps, but I'm guessing not too much. This slowed down over the day. And Dune 2 I only grabbed for day 2, but I'm including since I think it has good value as a comp due to the EA showing.

 

The Beetlejuice comp is not useful, but included just to show something started off slower. I took it out of the average. It picked up by day 2 so I may keep it around.

 

The results here are not good. They may improve. The EA sales are good, but I only have the red hot Dune 2 sales to compare it to that had people running out to see on IMAX. 

 

I missed first week on Marvels, so I'll only track that once I convert to T minus, but at 270 sales at T-21, Joker is unlikely to catch up IMO.

 

There's still time for things to take a different path, but this isn't the start that Joker fans were hoping for.

 

Joker: Folie a Deux, D1, hour 21, T-25, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Monday EA 

 

Total Sales: 45

New Sales: 10

Growth: 29%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 19

Tickets per Showtime: 2.4

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 3/4

Early Evening: 29/9

Late Evening: 13/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 12/7

VIP: 14/6

IMAX: 19/6

 

Comps

22.500x Beetlejuice² for $220.5M

0.662x GxK for $6.6M

0.042x D&W for $1.6M

0.378x Dune 2 (day 2 pull) for $3.8M

0.957x HG: BoSS for $5.5M

Average (excluding B²): $4.4M

 

Monday EA Sales

Total: 42

New sales: 17

Growth: 68%

Showings: 1 IMAX showing in radius 

 

EA Comp

0.140x Dune 2 (Day2) for $0.3M

 

Well, it did go up from yest evening, but not by much. Growth was limited to one large group sale for one showing.

 

It's still lagging Hunger Games, which I wasn't expecting to be a major comp. I'm now hoping it can maintain it's pace.

 

EA sales are the strongest area though. That's the only place where there's any fan urgency to buy tickets it seems due to limited screenings.

[charlie Jatinder]

Joker 2 MiniTC2 T-24 Days
 

EA - 132/415 (1 showings)
Previews - 342/53089 (190 showings)

 

Comps (Thursday Only)

Flash - $2.7M

Spider-Verse 2 - $4M

Dune 2 - $4M

Beetlejuice - $7M

Edited September 10 by charlie Jatinder

[Grand Cine]

28 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Joker MiniTC2 T-24 Days
 

EA - 132/415 (1 showings)
Previews - 342/53089 (190 showings)

 

Comps (Thursday Only)

Flash - $2.7M

Spider-Verse 2 - $4M

Dune 2 - $4M

Beetlejuice - $7M

A other Ouch

[CJohn]

The tomato law cannot be denied. Accept it. Face it. Get smashed by it. It will come for your movie.

[Boxofficerules]

14 minutes ago, CJohn said:

The tomato law cannot be denied. Accept it. Face it. Get smashed by it. It will come for your movie.

What about Speak No Evil?

[filmlover]

5 hours ago, AniNate said:

I can't believe presales would be this weak if the Venice buzz were more along the lines of "Better than the first! Gaga gives an all out Oscar caliber performance!" CBM fans are the most online of any and they know full well what the reviews are saying even if they don't like it. It has definitely muted the interest.

I won't disagree, but I also think there were a lot of variables that folks weren't taking into account surrounding the first movie that didn't become apparent until the reviews hit. Massive overperformances like that also result in the sequels coming back down to Earth a bit, especially when the first movie was a one-off that didn't call for a sequel. The convoluted nature of the project (a musical sequel to a non-musical mixed with more character drama) is also probably not as appealing everyone thought it would be.

 

Kind of wild how south things have gone for this movie over the past week, especially since it has its work cut out for it trying regain that lost momentum over the next three weeks.

Edited September 10 by filmlover

[JonathanMB]

40 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I won't disagree, but I also think there were a lot of variables that folks weren't taking into account surrounding the first movie that didn't become apparent until the reviews hit. Massive overperformances like that also result in the sequels coming back down to Earth a bit, especially when the first movie was a one-off that didn't call for a sequel. The convoluted nature of the project (a musical sequel to a non-musical mixed with more character drama) is also probably not as appealing everyone thought it would be.

 

Kind of wild how south things have gone for this movie over the past week, especially since it has its work cut out for it trying regain that lost momentum over the next three weeks.

 

Yeah, I think people forget how much free publicity the first movie got from concerns that it was too dangerous (I think EW refused to grade it because of that?) which probably brought in a lot more non-comic book/superhero moviegoers who wanted to see what this politically dangerous could possibly look like. It felt like a movie everyone needed an opinion on, and a one-off as well since Phoenix and Phillips kept insisting they would not do a sequel at the time. I don't think a lot of those people will be returning for a sequel that no one thinks is particularly dangerous, just a bit of a drag. 

[vale9001]

Ouch. Still don't believe this will open with like half of the first movie but could be another one of these movies when sequels failed cause people thought the story is over.

 

Most striking example is probably The exorcist going from 200M to 30M with a sequel releaed just after 4 years.  Love story 2 from 110M to 15M.

 

We should be worried about Gladiator? By being a new story with a new character should be perceveid less as a "shark jumping" move.

Passion of Christ 2 will be the next will make 20% of the first. 

 

 

Edited September 10 by vale9001

[AnthonyJPHer]

6 hours ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

There are 2 next parts of big Blockbuster movies released in 2019 this year. 

 

People thought that the one of them would be repeating Alice, Marvels.

 

They just didn't know it won't be the one they predicted.

It’d be incredibly ironic if Joker 2, which before pre sales everyone thought was an easy 100m opener, got beaten by Mufasa

[vafrow]

56 minutes ago, JonathanMB said:

 

Yeah, I think people forget how much free publicity the first movie got from concerns that it was too dangerous (I think EW refused to grade it because of that?) which probably brought in a lot more non-comic book/superhero moviegoers who wanted to see what this politically dangerous could possibly look like. It felt like a movie everyone needed an opinion on, and a one-off as well since Phoenix and Phillips kept insisting they would not do a sequel at the time. I don't think a lot of those people will be returning for a sequel that no one thinks is particularly dangerous, just a bit of a drag. 

 

I agree with this take, and I'm also surprised at how many people seem to forget the very specific publicity the original film got.

 

I put Joker and Bohemian Rhapsody in the same bucket. Films that worked, but seemed to catch all the breaks it needed to be a runaway success, well above anyone's expectations.

 

The other thing I think we need to consider is that this was still tracking high from other services. Shawn Robbins had this in the $100M range. I think it's worth keeping this in mind. Maybe there's a growth curve here that we're not anticipating. Either that, or the non ticket sale metrics have a blind spot. Either way, it'll be an interesting element to dissect once this film fully plays out.

[AniNate]

That high tracking before presales is what leads me to believe this lack of interest was a recent development. Everyone seemed to be on board with the premise before the Venice buzz came in. If it wasn't a turnoff for the CBM nerds, it definitely was more for those looking for a novel musical concept and/or Gaga hamming it up.

[vafrow]

6 minutes ago, AniNate said:

That high tracking before presales is what leads me to believe this lack of interest was a recent development. Everyone seemed to be on board with the premise before the Venice buzz came in. If it wasn't a turnoff for the CBM nerds, it definitely was more for those looking for a novel musical concept and/or Gaga hamming it up.

 

Potentially. But it's a drastic turn. And it's odd because it raises the question of whether festival buzz was priced into it's hype, which shouldn't really happen. But it's also rare for a sequel to a billion dollar film getting the festival treatment.

 

Even the Cannes misfires in recent years were out of competition screenings.

 

One thing is for sure is that this has become one of the more fun items to track. I prefer unexpected successes to failures, but I also feel the box office is strong ebo that one high expectation film stumbling isn't the end of the world.

[vale9001]

22 minutes ago, AniNate said:

That high tracking before presales is what leads me to believe this lack of interest was a recent development. Everyone seemed to be on board with the premise before the Venice buzz came in. If it wasn't a turnoff for the CBM nerds, it definitely was more for those looking for a novel musical concept and/or Gaga hamming it up.

 

 

do you really believe some post around about reviews can kill that kinda of hype of a movie in this "tragic" way? so why didn't happen with Deadpool and wolverine and so many other movies?

 

And we're really not even talking about disastrous reviews. It's not like a 20% on RT, right now it's a 60% on RT, so i would call average reviews, not bad reviews.

 

I think some users could have it more on point: first movie did all of that because of extra buzz, a political climate (trump was president). It also won the Gold Lion. Plus people could just think the first movie was enough.

 

All of these opinions seems more on point imo than a 60% on Rotten instead of 70% killed the 150M hype to 75M hype.

Edited September 10 by vale9001