The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Eric the Marxist]

This conversation reminds me of when the guy who made Oogieloves threw shade at Pixar in an interview and was out here saying Up should have been rated R because it was too sad and violent. If a Transformers or Dreamworks movie is too dark or intense for today's kids, I think we got a bigger problem on our hands lol

[Ryan C]

11 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Every animated movie has someone somewhere saying it's too dark, so it's not something that you can easily measure. It tends to be overstated by insecure fans who are indirectly trying to promote movies as cool mature fare that adults can watch.

 

When mainstream stuff like DreamWorks or Pixar movies get really good reviews though, the general audience reception tends to follow. Do think transformers might have a lower box office ceiling than wild robot though as imo there's a more limited audience for blatantly toy franchise driven features. Mutant Mayhem got strong reviews and had no family competition its whole run but still had worse legs and total box office than Elemental.

 

 

 

Not to derail the thread, but I've really never bought into the Kung Fu Panda 2 or How to Train Your Dragon 2 underperformed domestically because they were too dark for kids. 

 

If you look at the marketplace when both of those movies were released, it kind of speaks for itself. Kung Fu Panda 2 opened on the same weekend as The Hangover Part II and though that is an R-rated comedy, it was treated as a legitimate event that everyone had to go see. I'm sure some adults that would've seen Kung Fu Panda 2 had it been the only wide release on that weekend ended up seeing Hangover 2 instead. That, and there were a lot of kid-friendly movies that opened around that same time (Green Lantern, Mr. Popper's Penguins, X-Men: First Class, Cars 2, etc.) that fought for family audiences. 

 

How to Train Your Dragon 2 was a more interesting case, but I believe that it's because compared to when its predecessor came out, it didn't have the big 3D boost. I think people forget that a big reason why the first How to Train Your Dragon overperformed (besides being really good) was because of it being released at the height of 3D. Oh, and Transformers: Age of Extinction came out two weeks later, which probably didn't help. 

 

I don't deny there were some parents that claimed Panda 2 or Dragon 2 were too dark for kids, but they both still earned fantastic reception that didn't stop them from being hits anyways. 

Edited Friday at 11:39 PM by Ryan C

[BOfficeStats]

How are Megalopolis and Azrael looking?

[AnthonyJPHer]

33 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

Not to derail the thread, but I've really never bought into the Kung Fu Panda 2 or How to Train Your Dragon 2 underperformed domestically because they were too dark for kids. 

 

If you look at the marketplace when both of those movies were released, it kind of speaks for itself. Kung Fu Panda 2 opened on the same weekend as The Hangover Part II and though that is an R-rated comedy, it was treated as a legitimate event that everyone had to go see. I'm sure some adults that would've seen Kung Fu Panda 2 had it been the only wide release on that weekend ended up seeing Hangover 2 instead. That, and there were a lot of kid-friendly movies that opened around that same time (Green Lantern, Mr. Popper's Penguins, X-Men: First Class, Cars 2, etc.) that fought for family audiences. 

 

How to Train Your Dragon 2 was a more interesting case, but I believe that it's because compared to when its predecessor came out, it didn't have the big 3D boost. I think people forget that a big reason why the first How to Train Your Dragon overperformed (besides being really good) was because of it being released at the height of 3D. Oh, and Transformers: Age of Extinction came out two weeks later, which probably didn't help. 

 

I don't deny there were some parents that claimed Panda 2 or Dragon 2 were too dark for kids, but they both still earned fantastic reception that didn't stop them from being hits anyways. 

HTTYD 2 is such a bizarre case of underperforming. Even with the lack of novelty of 3D, the movie still just kind of died without much competition at all. It still did really well internationally so domestically something was up. 

[AJG]

1 hour ago, CheeseWizard said:

So in terms of animated movies, is there ever any correlation between parents complaining about it being too dark, and a drop in the movie’s earnings? 
 

No.

[Flip]

On 9/11/2024 at 11:20 PM, Flip said:

Transformers One (T-8) 

 

11 showtimes/60 tix sold (+1)

 

.27x Inside Out 2 (T-9) [3.51m]

 

I don’t think there will be any significant growth for the next 3-4 days

Transformers One (T-6) 

 

11 showtimes/60 tix sold (+0)

 

.21x Inside Out 2 (T-6) [2.73m]

 

Yep, no growth

[Flip]

23 hours ago, Flip said:

Joker 2 Previews (T-21)

20 showtimes/251 tix sold (+11)

 

Missed Deadpool 3 (T-21) [???]
1.74x Beetlejuice 2 (T-21) [17.05m]
2.04x AQP Day One (T-21) [13.87m]

 

Lets see how the weekend goes

Joker 2 Previews (T-20)

20 showtimes/284 tix sold (+33)

 

Missed Deadpool 3 (T-20) [???]
1.87x Beetlejuice 2 (T-20) [18.33m]
2.22x AQP Day One (T-20) [15.10m]

 

Strong growth. Probably a regional thing though, since Joker likely pulls in both the NYC “art house” crowd and the GA comic book fans.

[filmlover]

4 hours ago, Eric the Marxist said:

This conversation reminds me of when the guy who made Oogieloves threw shade at Pixar in an interview and was out here saying Up should have been rated R because it was too sad and violent. If a Transformers or Dreamworks movie is too dark or intense for today's kids, I think we got a bigger problem on our hands lol

Those who weren't yet into following movies back then don't know what they missed out on when this certified classic was unleashed upon the world. There is only life before Oogieloves, and life after.

 

[THUNDER BIRD]

5 hours ago, CheeseWizard said:

So in terms of animated movies, is there ever any correlation between parents complaining about it being too dark, and a drop in the movie’s earnings? I mean have films like Kung Fu Panda 2 suffered box office wise from parents saying it had too much dark imagery for a PG rating?
 

cus I think we might see complaints from Wild Robot and especially TFOne for stuff like that atm 

I'm more concerned about people who think Kung Fu Panda 2 was too dark.

[Ryan C]

On 9/8/2024 at 2:35 AM, Ryan C said:

Transformers One

 

T-6, T-10, and T-11

 

Saturday, September 14 - Early Access Screenings: 333 Seats Sold (From 13 Theaters)

Wednesday, September 18 - Fan Event Screenings: 426 Seats Sold (From 8 Theaters)

Thursday, September 19 - Traditional Thursday Previews: 408 Seats Sold (From 15 Theaters)

= 1,167 Seats Sold

 

Taken as of 2:30AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: With this not only having EA showings but Fan Event Screenings, it'll definitely make this one interesting to track. Though Paramount better hope that there's enough Transformers fans to show up on the movie's actual opening weekend because a good chunk of them (based on these sales) are gonna be seeing the movie early at either of these specific screenings. That means it'll have to rely on both good word-of-mouth and family walk-ups to hopefully have a solid opening.

 

It's definitely possible, but I am concerned that this is the kind of franchise where the fans will show up, but it won't be able to appeal beyond that. Since this is the first fully animated film to have come out since Despicable Me 4, I'm more likely to believe that it'll attract a lot of families and teenagers, but we'll see how well does in the next week or so.

 

For now though, these pre-sales aren't looking that bad. 

 

Transformers One

 

T-0, T-4, and T-5

 

Saturday, September 14 - Early Access Screenings: 955 Seats Sold (186.7% Increase From Last Time)

Wednesday, September 18 - Fan Event Screenings: 634 Seats Sold (48.8% Increase From Last Time)

Thursday, September 19 - Traditional Thursday Previews: 457 Seats Sold (12% Increase From Last Time)

= 2,046 Seats Sold (75.3% Increase From Last Time)

 

Taken as of 1:30AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: By the time those first EA screenings start, over 1,000 seats should be sold as acceleration has been at a great pace all week (including new showtimes being added to keep up with demand). Less so about the Fan Event screenings that start on Wednesday, but those sales should accelerate at a good pace within the next few days. At the very least, we should expect a pretty solid EA screening number if Paramount chooses to combine Saturday's sales and Wednesday's sales together. 

 

However, the noticeable small jump that actual the Thursday previews have taken since almost a week ago is concerning. I know we're still about a week away from the release date, but this is a bit concerning. I'm not sure whether this indicates that most of this movie's business will come from walk-up business or that all of the Transformers fans will be showing up on either Saturday or Wednesday, but I did expect a slightly bigger jump over the week than just 12%. 

 

With that said, early reviews have been great (good on Paramount for dropping the review embargo early) and this is still a family film. With how walk-up heavy they've been this year, I don't see why that trend would suddenly stop with this one. 

 

Overall, let's hope this has a strong final week. 

Edited Saturday at 05:45 AM by Ryan C

[CheeseWizard]

10 hours ago, AniNate said:

Every animated movie has someone somewhere saying it's too dark, so it's not something that you can easily measure. It tends to be overstated by insecure fans who are indirectly trying to promote movies as cool mature fare that adults can watch.

 

When mainstream stuff like DreamWorks or Pixar movies get really good reviews though, the general audience reception tends to follow. Do think transformers might have a lower box office ceiling than wild robot though as imo there's a more limited audience for blatantly toy franchise driven features. Mutant Mayhem got strong reviews and had no family competition its whole run but still had worse legs and total box office than Elemental.

 

 

I don’t think Mutant mayhem really works as a comparison point here. Gotta remember, it was insanely hated when its trailer first dropped, and although it died down a bit, it still wasn’t getting the best fan reception. The movie got dogged on left and right, and a lot of people still don’t wanna give it a chance now purely cus of its art style, or cus fans are still bitter over the last TMNt show getting unfairly canned. 

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Transformers One, T-7, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Early Access shows 

 

Previews

Total Sales: 22

New Sales since T-9: 9

Growth: 69%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Tickets per Showtime: 1.7

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Saturday EA Shows

Showtimes: 3

Sales: 135

New sales: 51

Growth: 61%

 

Wednesday EA Shows

Showtimes: 1

EA Sales: 17

New sales: 2

Growth: 7%

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 0/1

Early Evening: 7/6

Late Evening: 6/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 2/3

Dolby 3D: 7/4

IMAX: 13/4

4DX: 0/2

 

Comps (preview to preview)

0.195x KFP4 for $0.9M

0.250x IO2 for $3.3M

0.098x DM4 for $2.7M

22.000x Garfield for $42.4M

 

Average: $2.3M (excluding Garfield)

 

EA Comps (Sunday only)

8.000x Garfield for $4.6M

 

It finally saw a bit of a bump. I'm hoping that sales get steadier after the EA show tomorrow.

 

Transformers One, T-6, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Early Access shows 

 

Previews

Total Sales: 27

New Sales since: 5

Growth: 23%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Tickets per Showtime: 2.1

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Saturday EA Shows

Showtimes: 3

Sales: 213

New sales: 78

Growth: 58%

 

Wednesday EA Shows

Showtimes: 1

EA Sales: 17

New sales: 0

Growth: 0%

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 2/1

Early Evening: 11/6

Late Evening: 14/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 2/3

Dolby 3D: 11/4

IMAX: 8/4

4DX: 6/2

 

Comps (preview to preview)

0.200x KFP4 for $1.0M

0.260x IO2 for $3.4M

0.103x DM4 for $2.8M

6.750x Garfield for $13.0M

 

Average: $2.4M (excluding Garfield)

 

EA Comps (Sunday only)

10.000x Garfield for $5.8M

 

It's chugging along. The EA sales later today showed great growth over the last two days. I wouldn't be surprised if they sold out with walk ups. If the previews perform similarly, this could really explode at the end, but the community day promotion is probably skewing things a bit for today, so hard to judge.

[vafrow]

On 9/13/2024 at 7:52 AM, vafrow said:

 

Joker: Folie a Deux, T-21, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Monday EA 

 

Total Sales: 61

New Sales: 2

Growth: 3%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 19

Tickets per Showtime: 3.2

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 3/4

Early Evening: 36/9

Late Evening: 21/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 22/7

VIP: 14/6

IMAX: 23/6

 

Comps

1.000x Beetlejuice² for $9.8M

0.194x Dune 2 for $1.9M

0.127x The Marvels for $0.8M

Average: $4.2M

 

Monday EA Sales

Total: 68

New sales: 13

Growth: 24%

Showings: 2 IMAX showing in radius 

 

EA Comp

0.217x Dune 2 for $0.4M

 

I miscalculated the days to release, so I've adjusted to reflect that it's T-21, and switched over the comps.

 

The films it's comping decently too all had later starts though, so it looks pretty bad. The Marvels coming on line doesn't help. It's worth pointing out that The Marvels likely overindexed here due to demographics. 

 

Beetlejuice coming down with the shift to T minus is interesting. I'll likely keep it as a comp, as it's essentially what Joker needs to keep pace with to stay on track for the $70M opening circulated by the trades.

 

Joker: Folie a Deux, T-20, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Monday EA 

 

Total Sales: 66

New Sales: 5

Growth: 8%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 19

Tickets per Showtime: 3.5

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 6/4

Early Evening: 39/9

Late Evening: 21/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 24/7

VIP: 19/6

IMAX: 23/6

 

Comps

1.082x Beetlejuice² for $10.6M

0.202x Dune 2 for $2.0M

0.130x The Marvels for $0.9M

Average: $4.5M

 

Monday EA Sales

Total: 81

New sales: 13

Growth: 18%

Showings: 2 IMAX showing in radius 

 

EA Comp

0.212x Dune 2 for $0.4M

 

  Slight progress. Not bad, when I feared it could spiral.

 

The EA shows still show a lot of strength, which is probably hurting demand on previews.

Edited Saturday at 03:03 PM by vafrow

[excel1]

prepare for joker acceleration 

[Firepower]

15 hours ago, BOfficeStats said:

How are Megalopolis and Azrael looking?

+++++

[Lux Lenchner]

37 minutes ago, excel1 said:

prepare for joker acceleration 

Legs will still be nonexistent. 

Edited Saturday at 03:08 PM by Lux Lenchner

[CheeseWizard]

42 minutes ago, excel1 said:

prepare for joker acceleration 

The Joaquin walkups will surely do something for Joker, right?

[AniNate]

EDIT, wrong thread

Edited Saturday at 03:19 PM by AniNate

[Firepower]

17 minutes ago, Lux Lenchner said:

Legs will still be nonexistent. 

We don't know that yet.

[NGGKroze]

On top of everything going with Joker we should also remember its R-rated and unlike DP&W it won't play like PG-13-like movie. 

 

Maybe Low 50s OW and leg it out to 120M maybe, depending on how WoM will go. Honestly will be shocked if miss the 100M domestic total.