The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Flip]

On 9/14/2024 at 11:18 PM, Flip said:

Transformers One Previews (T-5) 

 

11 showtimes/62 tix sold (+2)

 

.20x Inside Out 2 (T-5) [2.60m]

1.44x Borderlands (T-5) [1.87m]

 

Added Borderlands just to get an extra comp in for wider variety. Tomorrow is really important; it should hopefully sell 10+ tickets 

Transformers One Previews (T-4) 

 

11 showtimes/63 tix sold (+1)

 

.18x Inside Out 2 (T-4) [2.38m]

1.17x Borderlands (T-4) [1.52m]

 

EA must’ve shaved off a HUGE amount of demand for it to be pacing this low.

[Flip]

On 9/14/2024 at 11:15 PM, Flip said:

Joker 2 Previews (T-19)

20 showtimes/292 tix sold (+8)

 

.21x Deadpool 3 (T-19) [8.09m]
Missed Beetlejuice 2 (T-19) [???]
2.23x AQP Day One (T-19) [15.16m]
 

Slower day today, yesterday was weird then. I think Deadpool comp is undershooting it a bit since that seems like a more front loaded movie (+ it had a much longer window), but on the other hand it’s also more walk up friendly. I only checked Deadpool sporadically, but in the next 5 days it grew 8.65%, which I think Joker 2 can comfortably surpass (would need to sell 26 tickets). 

Joker 2 Previews (T-18)

20 showtimes/310 tix sold (+18)

 

Missed Deadpool 3 (T-18) [???]

1.83x Beetlejuice 2 (T-18) [17.93m]
2.26x AQP Day One (T-18) [15.37m]

 

Still pacing well
 

 

[Flip]

Transformers One Friday (T-5)

 

14 showtimes/56 tix sold

 

.08x Inside Out 2 Friday (T-5) [4.04m]

.41x Twisters Friday (T-5) [8.79m]
 

Mainly including Twisters for pace purposes but this is close to abysmal

[Flip]

On 9/14/2024 at 11:22 PM, Flip said:

The Wild Robot Previews (T-12)

 

16 showtimes/67 tix sold (+12)

 

Missed Inside Out 2 (T-12) [???]

Missed Transformers One (T-12) [???]

 

It’s pacing well

The Wild Robot Previews (T-11)

 

16 showtimes/72 tix sold (+5)

 

.39x Inside Out 2 (T-11) [5.07m]

Missed Transformers One (T-11) [???]

 

It’s pacing well, but it’s almost surely not reaching 5m with how it’s currently looking (it only looks so because IO2 underinvested a decent amount + wild robot might overindex a bit)

 

[Flip]

On 9/10/2024 at 12:11 AM, Flip said:

Joker 2 Friday (T-25)

 

29 showtimes/115 tix sold

 

1.32x Beetlejuice 2 Day One [38.04m]

.82x Beetlejuice 2 Friday (T-23) [26.63m]
 

This is definitely more worrying than previews IMO. Next few days need to be strong to show some signs of life

Joker 2 Friday (T-19) 6 days of sales

 

29 showtimes/201 tix sold (+86)

 

.28x Deadpool 3 Friday (T-19) [16.15m]

1.24x Beetlejuice 2 Friday (T-18) [35.74m]

 

Deadpool grew 26.9% before the next time I checked it (T-13), Joker should look to around match that

 

 

[YM!]

25 minutes ago, Flip said:

Transformers One Previews (T-4) 

 

11 showtimes/63 tix sold (+1)

 

.18x Inside Out 2 (T-4) [2.38m]

1.17x Borderlands (T-4) [1.52m]

 

EA must’ve shaved off a HUGE amount of demand for it to be pacing this low.

Yeah seeing similar data from you as my own. Pace is abysmal here. Really wish we had MTC1 or Florida data for larger scope but starting to doubt $30m OW

[Ryan C]

On 9/12/2024 at 6:16 PM, Ryan C said:

The Substance

 

T-6 and T-7

 

Wednesday EA Showings: 244 Seats Sold (From 7 Theaters)

Thursday: 253 Seats Sold (From 7 Theaters)

= 497 Seats Sold

 

Taken as of 6:10PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: For that one person who wanted to see how The Substance is doing, well here you go. 

 

I don't know if these numbers mean we'll see a potential breakout, but I can't imagine these numbers being bad. At the very least, the buzz this has been getting from film festivals seems to be paying off with the number of tickets being sold right now.

 

The Substance

 

T-2 and T-3

 

Wednesday EA Showings: 353 Seats Sold (44.6% Increase From Last Time)

Thursday: 333 Seats Sold (31.6% Increase From Last Time)

= 686 Seats Sold (38% Increase From Last Time)

 

Taken as of 12:50AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: I still have no idea if this'll lead to a breakout performance, but it's great to see the buzz this movie has been getting continue to drive these ticket sales. I don't think we'd be seeing these kinds of increases if the movie didn't play at any of the recent film festivals. 

 

Again, I sincerely hope that these numbers mean good things for when this officially opens. 

Edited Monday at 04:54 AM by Ryan C

[CheeseWizard]

2 hours ago, Flip said:

Transformers One Friday (T-5)

 

14 showtimes/56 tix sold

 

.08x Inside Out 2 Friday (T-5) [4.04m]

.41x Twisters Friday (T-5) [8.79m]
 

Mainly including Twisters for pace purposes but this is close to abysmal

Could EA still be eating into it? This is looking like it isn’t even gonna hit the lowest predictions atm 

[AniNate]

Honestly can't say the fan event sales inspire much confidence themselves judging from my region. Unscientific observation but they seem like they ought to have a lot more by now for a $40mil opener

[newbie BO buff]

11 hours ago, iEnri said:

Wow really, so then I don't think there is anyone tracking here that would put it above The Marvels now. So even if Joker stays healthy without decreasing, it is still pretty bad regardless

 

so it's going to open under $47M? 🤯

[vafrow]

21 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Transformers One, T-5, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Early Access shows 

 

Previews

Total Sales: 27

New Sales since: 5

Growth: 23%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Tickets per Showtime: 2.1

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Saturday EA Shows T-0 (15 minutes to showtime)

Showtimes: 4 (new location added)

Sales: 306

New sales: 93

Growth: 44%

 

Wednesday EA Shows

Showtimes: 1

EA Sales: 17

New sales: 0

Growth: 0%

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 2/1

Early Evening: 11/6

Late Evening: 14/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 2/3

Dolby 3D: 11/4

IMAX: 8/4

4DX: 6/2

 

Comps (preview to preview)

0.175x KFP4 for $0.8M

0.211x IO2 for $2.7M

0.077x DM4 for $2.1M

6.750x Garfield for $13.0M

 

Average: $1.9M (excluding Garfield)

 

The EA showings were a success, but nothing happening for previews and it's losing ground. I'm hoping it picks up soon.

 

Transformers One, T-4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Early Access shows 

 

Previews

Total Sales: 30

New Sales: 3

Growth: 11%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Tickets per Showtime: 2.3

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Wednesday EA Shows

Showtimes: 1

EA Sales: 19

New sales: 2

Growth: 12%

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 2/1

Early Evening: 12/6

Late Evening: 16/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 2/3

Dolby 3D: 13/4

IMAX: 9/4

4DX: 6/2

 

Comps (preview to preview)

0.148x KFP4 for $0.7M

0.191x IO2 for $2.5M

0.071x DM4 for $1.9M

7.500x Garfield for $14.4M

 

Average: $1.7M (excluding Garfield

 

It continues to fall behind comps. It's probably getting to the point of concern, even if numbers don't look as bad throughout thr weekend.

 

What's jumping out to me is that at present most tickets are actually being sold for the late shows. There's lots of singles and pairs, when you'd usually expect smaller groups to dominate for a family film.

 

Someone made a comment about whether this film will expand beyond the target demo of 11 year old boys. As a parent of a 9 and 11 year old, I can tell you this film hasn't been high interest in our household.

 

And a year ago, not only did we see Rise of the Beasts in theatres, we took half the kids in the neighborhood with us.

 

This needs to start seeing a better acceleration in the next day or so.

[AniNate]

Meanwhile TheQuorum spotlighting Wild Robot on their main page today 

 

"THE WILD ROBOT is getting ecstatic reviews, but until the past few days, tracking has been slow to catch fire. That may be changing. Interest is up 1 point this week, while awareness has begun to take off, up 4 points."

 

Awareness shot up at a higher rate at this T- date than IT ENDS WITH US, which has been a film it's been pacing pretty close to in Quorum tracking 

[CheeseWizard]

29 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

Transformers One, T-4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Early Access shows 

 

Previews

Total Sales: 30

New Sales: 3

Growth: 11%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Tickets per Showtime: 2.3

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Wednesday EA Shows

Showtimes: 1

EA Sales: 19

New sales: 2

Growth: 12%

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 2/1

Early Evening: 12/6

Late Evening: 16/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 2/3

Dolby 3D: 13/4

IMAX: 9/4

4DX: 6/2

 

Comps (preview to preview)

0.148x KFP4 for $0.7M

0.191x IO2 for $2.5M

0.071x DM4 for $1.9M

7.500x Garfield for $14.4M

 

Average: $1.7M (excluding Garfield

 

It continues to fall behind comps. It's probably getting to the point of concern, even if numbers don't look as bad throughout thr weekend.

 

What's jumping out to me is that at present most tickets are actually being sold for the late shows. There's lots of singles and pairs, when you'd usually expect smaller groups to dominate for a family film.

 

Someone made a comment about whether this film will expand beyond the target demo of 11 year old boys. As a parent of a 9 and 11 year old, I can tell you this film hasn't been high interest in our household.

 

And a year ago, not only did we see Rise of the Beasts in theatres, we took half the kids in the neighborhood with us.

 

This needs to start seeing a better acceleration in the next day or so.

Walkups are gonna have to be fucking insane, otherwise this thing isn’t even making it past 30. Are there any other movies with tracking even vaugly similar to this?

[WebSurfer]

Tone could explode in sales for its last week, but we’ll see.

[Mojoguy]

1 hour ago, CheeseWizard said:

Walkups are gonna have to be fucking insane, otherwise this thing isn’t even making it past 30. Are there any other movies with tracking even vaugly similar to this?

Really sad people that saw the live action Transformers films aren't giving this a chance because it is animated. Reminds me of how people wrote off the first Spiderverse because it was animated and not live action Spider-Man.

[SpiderByte]

This is kinda the result of them letting the movies get so bad that even though the quality turned around the goodwill is exhausted 

[CheeseWizard]

13 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Really sad people that saw the live action Transformers films aren't giving this a chance because it is animated. Reminds me of how people wrote off the first Spiderverse because it was animated and not live action Spider-Man.

Aye, but at least Spiderverse got a Christmas release and a really good box office. It’s a damn shame if the first real good transformers movie doesn’t get a follow up cus of box office issues. This franchise ain’t ever recovering after The Last Knight.

[AniNate]

I did hypothesize that it was the movie that ran the risk of losing out in a schedule where Wild Robot comes next week. That movie has Oscar-worthy buzz and the "solidly entertaining" buzz TFOne has just doesn't look as enticing by comparison. If you're a parent looking for something you might enjoy too that looks like the more appealing option to budget a family outing for.

 

Maybe EA wom can kick in and boost it to really good walkups, but as of now definitely concerning

 

 

Edited Monday at 01:10 PM by AniNate

[CheeseWizard]

22 minutes ago, AniNate said:

I did hypothesize that it was the movie that ran the risk of losing out in a schedule where Wild Robot comes next week. That movie has Oscar-worthy buzz and the "solidly entertaining" buzz TFOne has just doesn't look as enticing by comparison. If you're a parent looking for something you might enjoy too that looks like the more appealing option to budget a family outing for.

 

Maybe EA wom can kick in and boost it to really good walkups, but as of now definitely concerning

 

 

Could be, but if early access word of mouth hasn’t kicked in and boosted presales, why would it boost walkups?

Edited Monday at 01:25 PM by CheeseWizard

[filmlover]

I always had a feeling this would run the risk of being too kid-targeted but at the same time the IP becoming mostly associated with overproduced PG-13 CGI extravaganzas probably limits its family appeal as well. Beetlejuice has probably stolen its thunder a bit given how much that's been playing like a family film (even with its PG-13 rating).

Edited Monday at 01:27 PM by filmlover