The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[filmpalace]

On 9/17/2024 at 10:41 PM, filmpalace said:

The Substance T-2

 

Tickets sold: 21

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 6

 

0,29x Speak No Evil (T-2) – 379K

 

Hoping this one will surprise a bit this weekend.

The Substance T-1

 

Tickets sold: 29 (+8)

Growth: 38%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 6

 

0,28x Speak No Evil (T-1) - 360K

Edited 18 hours ago by filmpalace

[filmpalace]

On 9/17/2024 at 10:38 PM, filmpalace said:

Transformers One T-2

 

Tickets sold: 59

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 11

 

0,81x Speak No Evil (T-2) – 1,0M

 

I know Speak No Evil is not a suitable comp for a family flick on a Thursday, but this is all I have right now, so please bear with me while I try to gain some more comps 😅

Transformers One T-1

 

Tickets sold: 87 (+28)

Growth: 47%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 11

 

0,83x Speak No Evil (T-1) – 1,1M

 

The Fan Event screenings have really good sales! That, along with the screenings from last weekend are most likely reducing the demand for the Thursday showings. With how low these Thursday numbers are, I just hope it doesn’t mean the movie might be frontloaded. Either way, I’m hoping for a solid final day tomorrow.

Edited 18 hours ago by filmpalace

[Menor the Destroyer]

7 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

You're far more technical than I am, but I have no doubt that you could build something pretty robust.

 

I was thinking about more the open ended applications though, like ChatGpt and others.

 

Will these tools be robust enough to contextualize all the data, and let someone ask in a search engine what a movie is forecasted to make on real time data. Maybe? Possibly?

 

It's the type of thing AI advocates are promising. And every variable we have in our analysis is something that could be learned. It's probably years away if at all. 

 

It's just something I've been pondering. I think what drives people to seek out this site is that it's real data, with real people analyzing and assessing. 

Nah you can do this kind of analysis now. It's pretty simple relative to the types of things that ML models can do now. In fact I have been thinking of trying it but just have not gotten around to actually building it out.

[filmpalace]

On 9/17/2024 at 10:42 PM, filmpalace said:

Joker: Folie a Deux T-16
 

Tickets sold: 216 (+8)

Growth: 4%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 21

Steady growth these past few days.

Joker: Folie a Deux T-15

 

Tickets sold: 221 (+5)

Growth: 2%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 21

[jeffthehat]

Indiana

Transformers One T-1 

Sales	Seats	Shows
638	26060	152

Comps

1.28x IF = $2.3m

1.03x The Fall Guy = $2.4m

0.79x Kung Fu Panda 4 = $3.0m

0.23x Inside Out 2 = $3.0m

 

AVG = $2.65m

 

Numbers are from this morning

[Ryan C]

17 hours ago, Ryan C said:

 

Transformers One

 

T-1 and T-2

 

Wednesday, September 18 - Fan Event Screenings: 979 Seats Sold (54.4% Increase From Last Time)

Thursday, September 19 - Traditional Thursday Previews: 658 Seats Sold (43.9% Increase From Last Time)

= 1,637 Seats Sold (50% Increase From Last Time Without Saturday EA Showings)

 

Taken as of 12:10AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: I'm seeing signs of potential strong walk-up business and the Fan Event showings are doing pretty good right now, but Thursday alone isn't showing that many great signs. 

 

I still stand by this being a very walk-up heavy movie over the weekend, but hopefully things improve within the next two days. 

If at least 1,000 seats aren't sold by Thursday when the first preview showings start, then I'll be legitmately concerned. 

 

Transformers One

 

T-0

 

Wednesday, September 18 - Fan Event Screenings: 1,068 Seats Sold (9% Increase From Last Time)

 

Taken as of 6:15PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Won't be able to track Thursday previews tonight, but I wanted to do one last check in with the Wednesday EA screenings that will be happening tonight. 

 

Anything between 1,100 and 1,200 seats sold when all is said and done. It's practically the same amount of seats sold (maybe a bit less) than last Saturday's EA screenings, but what's obviously more important is the actual Thursday previews. 

 

Once again, walk-ups need to be great if this movie wants to beat those $30M projections right now. 

[Ryan C]

21 hours ago, Ryan C said:

 

The Substance

 

T-1 and T-2

 

Wednesday EA Showings: 531 Seats Sold (50.4% Increase From Last Time)

Thursday: 489 Seats Sold (46.8% Increase From Last Time)

= 1,020 Seats Sold (48.6% Increase From Last Time)

 

Taken as of 9:10PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: A pretty solid increase from last time. More showtimes are being added for both tomorrow's EA screenings and traditional Thursday previews. 

 

Deadline is currently projecting this to make $3M over the weekend. Not sure if it'll make it there as the theater count is estimated to be around 1,700 and some business over the weekend could be offset by the amount of people seeing it on Wednesday's EA screenings, but if the strong buzz continues to boost ticket sales, maybe it'll get there. 

 

However, if MUBI (the film's distributor) is hearing any of this, they need to try to get this film in as many theaters as possible. A potential $3M weekend in about 1,700 theaters would be great, but imagine how much more could be made if the theater count is expanded to 2,000+. I know it won't come cheap, but with how much awards buzz this has been getting and interest clearly being there, I think this warrants spending the extra cash.

 

The Substance

 

T-0 and T-1

 

Wednesday EA Screenings: 663 Seats Sold (24.8% Increase From Last Time)

Thursday: 579 Seats Sold (18.4% Increase From Last Time)

= 1,242 Seats Sold (21.7% Increase From Last Time)

 

Taken as of 6:40PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Everything I said about this film yesterday pretty much stands today. The buzz just keeps this moving at a much stronger pace than other films of this nature. 

 

Will check one last time tomorrow before the Thursday previews officially start. For now, it's still doing well and is guaranteed to do more than $1M over this weekend. 

 

Edited 16 hours ago by Ryan C

[TheFlatLannister]

On 9/16/2024 at 6:24 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

TRANSFORMERS ONE

 

Thursday 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
543	1946	111376	1.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-3

(1.814x) of Garfield $3.45M

(0.977x) of Kung Fu Panda 4 $3.71M

Comps AVG: $3.58M

 

Good numbers, could be $4M+ previews with EA

FLORIDA 

TRANSFORMERS ONE

 

Thursday 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
598	2456	119061	2.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

304

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-1

(1.628x) of Garfield $3.09M

(0.811x) of Kung Fu Panda 4 $3.08M

Comps AVG: $3.08M

 

Pretty sizable drop against comps. Could be just O/U $3M for Thursday previews (+ whatever EA is) 

[TwoMisfits]

Megalopolis is giving 2 free tickets per person for free through Atom...1st come, 1st served,

 

So, I expect a tracking bump when folks look tomorrow...although the tickets are still available, so maybe not that much of a bump...

[Ryan C]

21 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

TRANSFORMERS ONE

 

Thursday 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
598	2456	119061	2.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

304

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-1

(1.628x) of Garfield $3.09M

(0.811x) of Kung Fu Panda 4 $3.08M

Comps AVG: $3.08M

 

Pretty sizable drop against comps. Could be just O/U $3M for Thursday previews (+ whatever EA is) 

 

Just did the math and a Thursday-Sunday multiplier like Kung Fu Panda 4 gets this to a $45M opening. 

 

If it follows the same path as Garfield, that gets it to a $39M opening and (just for fun), if it follows the same path as Inside Out 2, it'll take it to a $35M opening. 

 

None of those possible case-scenarios are taking into account the EA showings (which should be somewhat high), so even if this doesn't have a particularly strong Thursday number, the weekend is still the most important.  

 

Maybe I'll look stupid by Friday, but I just can't see this (with both great reviews/good word-of-mouth and opening in September) opening below $30M. 

[Jerri Blank-Diggler]

15 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Megalopolis is giving 2 free tickets per person for free through Atom...1st come, 1st served,

 

So, I expect a tracking bump when folks look tomorrow...although the tickets are still available, so maybe not that much of a bump...

It's still working as of now. I just got 2 free IMAX tickets for next Thursday. Use code "MEGAFREEATOM" after selecting seats, etc. on Atom tickets. 

[AniNate]

The TFOne comps have been all over the place this last week but they do seem to be gravitating towards around the $3mil mark now. That would be pretty solid assuming KFP4 weekend multiplier.

[HummingLemon496]

Transformers is headed for a O/U $45M debut. Could lead to a $140M-$160M DOM total

[interiorgatordecorator]

32 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Megalopolis is giving 2 free tickets per person for free through Atom...1st come, 1st served,

 

So, I expect a tracking bump when folks look tomorrow...although the tickets are still available, so maybe not that much of a bump...

 

how does that help them? 

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

how does that help them? 

 

"Sold" tickets b/c Atom (or whoever is funding the Atom deal) is "paying" for the tickets.

 

When you buy your 2 free tickets, if the price is $18, you'll see your $36 price and then the discount and then the "zero" you pay...

 

It's what Angel Studios has done in the past to start the ball rolling on their movies - same deal...

[Caption Action 3]

At T-16, setting up to track Joker movie. Open caption pre-sales are horrible at this point. So far have documented 52 screentimes, and of those, there's a basement-level ticket to screentime ratio of 0.17. Sales will need to really pick up closer to opening to get this to a respectable number. The data thus far:

 

Market	Theater	Date	Time	# of OC seats sold	# of non-OC screenings
Fitchburg (WI)	AMC Fitchburg	Friday, October 4, 2024	05:15 PM	0	12
Fitchburg (WI)	AMC Fitchburg	Saturday, October 5, 2024	02:00 PM	0	13
Fitchburg (WI)	AMC Fitchburg	Sunday, October 6, 2024	05:15 PM	0	11
Wawatosa (WI)	AMC Mayfair Mall	Friday, October 4, 2024	05:10 PM	0	12
Wauwatosa (WI)	AMC Mayfair Mall	Saturday, October 5, 2024	05:10 PM	0	12
Wauwatosa (WI)	AMC Mayfair Mall	Sunday, October 6, 2024	05:10 PM	0	9
Barboursville (WV)	Cinemark Huntington	Saturday, October 5, 2024	12:30 PM	0	13
Bridgeport (WV)	Cinemark Meadowbrook	Sunday, October 6, 2024	04:30 PM	0	10
Morgantown (WV)	AMC Morgantown	Friday, October 4, 2024	03:30 PM	0	3
Morgantown (WV)	AMC Morgantown	Saturday, October 5, 2024	12:15 PM	4	3
Morgantown (WV)	AMC Morgantown	Sunday, October 6, 2024	03:30 PM	0	3
Bellevue (WA)	Cinemark Lincoln Square	Saturday, October 5, 2024	02:10 PM	1	17
Burlington (WA)	AMC Cascade Mall	Thursday, October 3, 2024	04:30 PM	0	4
Burlington (WA)	AMC Cascade Mall	Friday, October 4, 2024	01:45 PM	0	6
Burlington (WA)	AMC Cascade Mall	Saturday, October 5, 2024	01:15 PM	0	7
Federal Way (WA)	Cinemark Federal Way	Saturday, October 5, 2024	03:15 PM	2	19
Kirkland (WA)	Cinemark Totem			0
Lakewood (WA)	AMC Lakewood Mall	Friday, October 4, 2024	01:00 PM	0	11
Lakewood (WA)	AMC Lakewood Mall	Saturday, October 5, 2024	02:15 PM	0	12
Lakewood (WA)	AMC Lakewood Mall	Sunday, October 6, 2024	09:45 AM	0	12
Lynwood (WA)	AMC Alderwood Mall	Friday, October 4, 2024	01:00 PM	0	11
Lynwood (WA)	AMC Alderwood Mall	Saturday, October 5, 2024	02:15 PM	0	12
Olympia (WA)	Cinemark Century Olympia	Sunday, October 6, 2024	02:45 PM	0	13
Seattle (WA)	AMC Pacific Place	Friday, October 4, 2024	12:30 PM	0	6
Seattle (WA)	AMC Pacific Place	Saturday, October 5, 2024	10:30 AM	0	7
Seattle (WA)	AMC Pacific Place	Sunday, October 6, 2024	11:00 AM	2	7
Spokane (WA)	AMC River Park Square	Friday, October 4, 2024	04:45 PM	0	11
Spokane (WA)	AMC River Park Square	Saturday, October 5, 2024	02:45 PM	0	11
Spokane (WA)	AMC River Park Square	Sunday, October 6, 2024	12:45 PM	0	10
Tacoma (WA)	Century Point Ruston	Sunday, October 6, 2024	03:30 PM	0	9
Tukwila (WA)	AMC Southcenter	Friday, October 4, 2024	11:00 AM	0	7
Tukwila (WA)	AMC Southcenter	Saturday, October 5, 2024	02:15 PM	0	8
Tukwila (WA)	AMC Southcenter	Sunday, October 6, 2024	08:45 PM	0	8
Vancouver (WA)	AMC Vancouver Mall	Friday, October 4, 2024	06:00 PM	0	6
Vancouver (WA)	AMC Vancouver Mall	Saturday, October 5, 2024	02:30 PM	0	7
Vancouver (WA)	AMC Vancouver Mall	Sunday, October 6, 2024	02:15 PM	0	12
Woodbridge (VA)	AMC Potomac Mills	Friday, October 4, 2024	05:15 PM	0	15
Woodbridge (VA)	AMC Potomac Mills	Saturday, October 5, 2024	05:15 PM	0	15
Woodbridge (VA)	AMC Potomac Mills	Sunday, October 6, 2024	05:15 PM	0	15
Virginia Beach (VA)	AMC Lynhaven	Friday, October 4, 2024	02:30 PM	0	10
Virginia Beach (VA)	AMC Lynhaven	Saturday, October 5, 2024	09:30 PM	0	10
Virginia Beach (VA)	AMC Lynhaven	Sunday, October 6, 2024	02:00 PM	0	10
Hampton (VA)	AMC Hampton Town Centre	Friday, October 4, 2024	01:30 PM	0	11
Hampton (VA)	AMC Hampton Town Centre	Saturday, October 5, 2024	10:20 AM	0	11
Hampton (VA)	AMC Hampton Town Centre	Sunday, October 6, 2024	10:20 AM	0	11
McLean (VA)	AMC Tysons Corner	Friday, October 4, 2024	12:30 PM	0	16
McLean (VA)	AMC Tysons Corner	Saturday, October 5, 2024	02:05 PM	0	16
Alexandria (VA)	AMC Hoffman Center	Sunday, October 6, 2024	10:15 PM	0	16

[Flopped]

1 hour ago, Ryan C said:

 

The Substance

 

T-0 and T-1

 

Wednesday EA Screenings: 663 Seats Sold (24.8% Increase From Last Time)

Thursday: 579 Seats Sold (18.4% Increase From Last Time)

= 1,242 Seats Sold (21.7% Increase From Last Time)

 

Taken as of 6:40PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Everything I said about this film yesterday pretty much stands today. The buzz just keeps this moving at a much stronger pace than other films of this nature. 

 

Will check one last time tomorrow before the Thursday previews officially start. For now, it's still doing well and is guaranteed to do more than $1M over this weekend. 

 

Wouldn't over 1M be disastrous, even for a movie of this kind? It's opening on 1700 screens. A Violent Nature opened to 2M+. Late Night with the Devil did almost 3M on 1000 screens. I think anything under 3M is a disappointment for Substance, especially with Demi making the promo rounds. 

[VanillaSkies]

Nvm

Edited 13 hours ago by VanillaSkies

[VanillaSkies]

1 hour ago, Jerri Blank-Diggler said:

It's still working as of now. I just got 2 free IMAX tickets for next Thursday. Use code "MEGAFREEATOM" after selecting seats, etc. on Atom tickets. 

Wow. 
I just got 2 free IMAX tickets for next Thursday as well, and I’m kind of in shock. 
That’s $42.50, for free!!

[Ryan C]

1 hour ago, Flopped said:

Wouldn't over 1M be disastrous, even for a movie of this kind? It's opening on 1700 screens. A Violent Nature opened to 2M+. Late Night with the Devil did almost 3M on 1000 screens. I think anything under 3M is a disappointment for Substance, especially with Demi making the promo rounds. 

 

I just said over $1M because that's a target the film is destined to hit. I didn't even think that was a full-on guarantee mark to hit a few days ago, so that's why I said it, even if it should do a bit more than that. 

 

However, there's always the chance the film can become frontloaded and I don't want to go crazy with predicting a movie that's not playing in every theater in the country. 

 

Especially with films like this, it's vastly unpredictable, so you'll often see me set a very basic benchmark for it to pass in case it underdelivers.